Only God Can Judge Judge

[jon abbey]

I’m not sure of this, but it’s possible that if an extension is signed before Opening Day, then there’s no avoiding the higher AAV hit for 2022, but if the same deal is announced next week, then NY can keep Judge’s number for 2022 at the $21M requested and save more space under $270M for potential midseason pickups.

So Beltran knew the two sides agreed but didn’t realize they had to wait to announce it. [/wishful thinking]

 

[EvilEmpire]

I like that explanation. Sounds plausible.

I guess we'll know soon enough.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I’m not sure of this, but it’s possible that if an extension is signed before Opening Day, then there’s no avoiding the higher AAV hit for 2022, but if the same deal is announced next week, then NY can keep Judge’s number for 2022 at the $21M requested and save more space under $270M for potential midseason pickups.

So Beltran knew the two sides agreed but didn’t realize they had to wait to announce it. [/wishful thinking]

Sorry, why does the AAV hit change aside from proration of the cost of the contract?

Edit: Is it because his arb number would be a separate contract than the extension?

 

[jon abbey]

Yes, so if the deal was 8/240 plus 21 for this year, that would save NY $8M this year (21 instead of 29).

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

View: https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/1512414800596418564?s=20&t=ZFY2zivBp4wdsUQ2QbYbEA










Jon Morosi

@jonmorosi

#Yankees have offered Aaron Judge a multiyear contract with a total guarantee in excess of $200 million, source confirms reporting today from
@Joelsherman1
and
@JonHeyman
.
@MLBNetwork

@MLB

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

3 year, Jon? 7?? 19???

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

7 years, $210 sounds about right (give or take)

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

https://nypost.com/2022/04/08/yankees-offering-huge-deal-to-aaron-judge-with-talks-going-down-to-the-wire/

"The Yankees and Aaron Judge continued to negotiate into the outfielder’s Opening Day deadline day to finalize an extension with the team already having already offered to make him the highest-paid position player by annual value in franchise history, The Post has learned.

The Yankees have bid more than $27.5 million, the annual value of the 10-year, $275 million deal that Alex Rodriguez signed with the team."

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1512426236257214468?s=12

 

[Wingack]

https://nypost.com/2022/04/08/yankees-offering-huge-deal-to-aaron-judge-with-talks-going-down-to-the-wire/

"The Yankees and Aaron Judge continued to negotiate into the outfielder’s Opening Day deadline day to finalize an extension with the team already having already offered to make him the highest-paid position player by annual value in franchise history, The Post has learned.

The Yankees have bid more than $27.5 million, the annual value of the 10-year, $275 million deal that Alex Rodriguez signed with the team."

That’s too much.

 

[jon abbey]

The per year amount? No it’s not, he’s not getting 10 years.

Sticking with my prediction of 8/240 plus 21 for this year…

 

[bankshot1]

First time long time

If Judge and the Yankees can't come to terms today, does Judge go on the 40-man roster (allowing him to play today) at the Yankees arb off of $17 million for the '22 season?

Thanks I'll hang-up and

 

[MuellerToldHisTale]

The per year amount? No it’s not, he’s not getting 10 years.

Sticking with my prediction of 8/240 plus 21 for this year…

I can't imagine him hesitating if they've offered him 8/240. Think the offer is probably more like 6/204, and he wants a 7th year.

 

[jon abbey]

I can't imagine him hesitating if they've offered him 8/240. Think the offer is probably more like 6/204, and he wants a 7th year.

NY tends to prefer spreading the money out a bit longer if they can, I doubt the AAV will be over $30M per.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1512430977792065536

 

[jon abbey]

Cashman will address the media at 11:15, either they are trying to make a big dramatic announcement or that will be it, hopefully the former.

 

[MuellerToldHisTale]

View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1512430977792065536

Wow. So like 7/225? He's a great player and all, and I get that he's beloved by the fanbase, but that sounds like an extremely competitive deal for him to pass on. Is he really looking to get paid through age 40?

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

Given the breadcrumbs - over $27.5 per year and over $225 total, it sounds like ~ 8 years at $28/per year = $228

 

[Wingack]

The per year amount? No it’s not, he’s not getting 10 years.

Sticking with my prediction of 8/240 plus 21 for this year…

Im Ok with the per year. I don’t want him being paid that into his late 30s.

 

[jon abbey]

Given the breadcrumbs - over $27.5 per year and over $225 total, it sounds like ~ 8 years at $28/per year = $228

8 times 28 is 224, maybe you mean 28.5.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

8 times 28 is 224, maybe you mean 28.5.

My fault, yes. (insert self-depricating joke about going to law school to avoid math)

I think that would be a good deal for both sides. He's worth more than that for the next few years. While he won't be worth it on the back end peformance-wise, he will be in terms of marketing and fan sentiment as a home grown superstar staying with the team through the end of his career.

 

[EvilEmpire]

8/28ish seems about right. I wonder how far apart they are.

 

[jon abbey]

I think Cashman is going to announce a deal at 11:15 and all of this is NY trying to build excitement in an odd way, but we'll see soon enough.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

I think Cashman is going to announce a deal at 11:15 and all of this is NY trying to build excitement in an odd way, but we'll see soon enough.

Yeah, I don't think he calls a presser without a deal to announce; doubt Cashman's going to ask everyone to assemble to watch him announce that nothing has happened.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

Whoops

View: https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/1512449610505244673?s=20&t=-Sk2qR5ci7Nrb82L1kqh7Q


"Brian Cashman makes it official: No Judge extension "

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1512450051200667650?s=20&t=p0wywb7g6qdGAa34FTLucQ

 

[jon abbey]

I would have gone one more year but that's a pretty fair offer.

 

[cromulence]

Sure feels like a fair offer. Maybe he doesn't want to be a Yankee?

 

[chawson]

View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1512450051200667650?s=20&t=p0wywb7g6qdGAa34FTLucQ

Judge is great, but that seems like a ton of money to turn down for a guy entering free agency at age 31.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Well that sucks. But I think that is a good offer. Maybe he'll get more on the open market.

 

[Ale Xander]

Sure feels like a fair offer. Maybe he doesn't want to be a Yankee?

He probably came to his senses and wants to join the Red Sox. I hear RF is somewhat open for an addition.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

I think he's gonna take a fair bit of heat for this since consensus is going to be that he's the one holding up an extension. Way to swing fan sentiment back to management, Judge.

 

[jon abbey]

On the bright side for NY fans, lot of motivation for Judge to have a huge season now.

 

[Mr. Stinky Esq.]

On the bright side for NY fans, lot of motivation for Judge to have a huge season now.

There is that. There's also the yearlong storyline of how every little thing might affect the parties' positions in extension talks. I find it weird that Cashman put the number out there. It's like he's trying to make Judge look unreasonable. And, while he does look unreasonable today, I don't see how that helps when he's still your homegrown superstar player that you're still hoping to reach an agreement with down the road.

But see:
View: https://twitter.com/lindseyadler/status/1512455084914978827


"Brian Cashman said he announced the contract offer to Aaron Judge because this is New York, the numbers would have gotten out regardless, and he would have spent the day fielding “please confirm” text messages from reporters."

Even still, he could have left it unconfirmed.

 

[MuellerToldHisTale]

Judge is great, but that seems like a ton of money to turn down for a guy entering free agency at age 31.

Agreed. That seems like an extremely competitive deal to pass on at this point in his career. I'm wondering what the market comps are for big ticket OFs - Springer is at 6/150, Harper was 13/330, but was a few years younger when he signed. I'd also think there must be a ton more ancillary value for Judge in endorsements in NY vs what he'd earn if he ends up on some random team - Sea, Ana, etc.

I think in general the players have become hyper-aware of their value relative to team revenues, and just aren't settling for what they feel is way below market. Interesting times.

 

[bankshot1]

If Judge and his advisors thinks the market for premiere sluggers is around 35M per for 8-10 years, I can understand him passing on that offer that leaves around 50 million on the table. Or maybe he was irked that the Ys did not move off the $17MM for '22.

 

[Wingack]

Cashman being smart here.

 

[jon abbey]

Even still, he could have left it unconfirmed.

I think he is generally irritated that he has to take so much flak about situations that people don't really grasp very well, meaning why NY couldn't go over $270M or sign a QO FA this winter (because it would have likely cost them #1 IFA Brandon Mayea next January, but teams aren't allowed to talk about teenagers not yet officially under contract, understandably).

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I'm all for betting on yourself, but it takes brass balls to turn down $200M+ guaranteed. Life/health is fragile, anything can happen. (This applies to all athletes who do this, of course, not only Judge.)

 

[chawson]

I wonder who the Judge camp thinks beats that. Lotta big-market teams with long-term commitments in right field.

CHC - Suzuki
DET - Greene
HOU - Tucker
LAA - Adell/Trout (eventually)
LAD - Betts
PHI - Harper
SEA - Greene
STL - Carlson
TOR - Hernandez/Springer (eventually)

The Mets and Red Sox will have pretty big openings. Of course, any team rich enough to pay Judge will have by discussed the prospect of landing Soto.

 

[jon abbey]

I wonder who the Judge camp thinks beats that.

The Yankees (when faced with losing him) or the Mets, I'm guessing. It's a big bet on himself certainly.

 

[EvilEmpire]

It's a big enough offer that it will still be competitive in the next off season with other teams involved. With some added risk to Judge if he gets injured this season.

Kudos to Judge for betting on himself, but yeah, that's a tough call.

 

[bankshot1]

I wonder who the Judge camp thinks beats that. Lotta big-market teams with long-term commitments in right field.

CHC - Suzuki
DET - Greene
HOU - Tucker
LAA - Adell/Trout (eventually)
LAD - Betts
PHI - Harper
SEA - Greene
STL - Carlson
TOR - Hernandez/Springer (eventually)

The Mets and Red Sox will have pretty big openings. Of course, any team rich enough to pay Judge will have by discussed the prospect of landing Soto.

The universal DH and a doubling of demand may have shaded the risk/reward factors for Team Judge to take a reasoned risk.

 

[ThePrideofShiner]

I'm unsure how to feel about this news. I'm not sure why Judge thinks he should get more money than Betts or Trout. I'm also not sure why if the Yankees weren't going to go after one of the mega-stars at shortstop they are balking at more money for Judge.

Also, if Judge really isn't vaccinated and can't play in Toronto, then that will quickly overtake all other concerns around the team. What a weird start to the year.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I think Cashman is secure enough in his job (though frustrated by fanboy criticism) that he doesn't feel like he needs to negotiate against himself too much.

He can negotiate against other teams next off season.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Cashman being smart here.

In not upping the offer? Yes.

I think broadcasting the particulars of the negotiation is arguably undisciplined/counterproductive, unless he is actually fine with Judge being cornered to the extent that he doesn’t feel he can take even the Yankees latest offer. These are, after all, human beings negotiating.

Maybe Cashman really does want to be done with it/is fine if Judge walks, period, and wants to not deal with it. But this came off as therapeutic more than tactical.

 

[BaseballJones]

I know turning down $200 million, given that all kinds of crazy things can happen in life, might be a helluva risk. BUT...he's already made $17 million in his career and is due another $17 million guaranteed for 2022. So that's $34 million for a guy who is 29 years of age. You put even $10m of that away and the guy never ever has to work again for the rest of his life. So yeah, the possible risk of losing $200 million exists, but if he never realized that money, and had to live off what he's already made, he ought to be set for life anyway.

https://www.investor.gov/financial-tools-calculators/calculators/compound-interest-calculator

35 years of letting $10m compound at 8% annually yields a total of nearly $148m when he reaches 65. If he has half a brain, he never has to worry about money again forever.

 

[EvilEmpire]

Eh. I guess he could have waited until it leaks, but Cashman has a reputation for being somewhat forthright when talking to the media. I don't think this is anything special with regard to Judge, just Cashman acting as he always has. And with the NY media the way it is, I don't think it is a bad thing or paints Judge into a corner or whatever.

 

[Greg29fan]

The Dodgers will move Mookie to CF (he played like 30 games there last year) and Judge will be their RF. He's from California, too.

 

[bankshot1]

If nothing else the prospect of Judge being FA in '23 and walking away for nothing should spark some discussion whether Cashman should have/will entertain offers for Judge.