OK, I am going to ask the question: Has BB lost his fastball?

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,341
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Hightower's cap hit was north of $12 MM this year, so I'm sure you're right you can replace his production for less. The problem is he's not under contract at all, and neither is Bentley, and there's not much cap space to speak of to fill that hole, as well as several others.

I'm not sure whether people realize this or not, but we basically haven't begun to pay for last offseason's spending spree.
2021 cap hits: Jonnu: 5.6 MM, Henry 6.8 MM, Agholor 6.9 MM, Godchaux 4 MM, Judon 6.3 MM
2022: Jonnu: 13.75 MM, Henry 15 MM, Agholor 15 MM, Godchaux 10.2 MM, Judon 16.5 MM
Those 5 guys are going to cost ~$40 MM more on the 2022 cap than they did in 2021.

And the other issue is they don't really have young guys waiting in the wings, like, anywhere on the roster. I mean, on paper you can say, well, they drafted Cameron McGrone last year in the 5th, he can take Hightower's snaps, but that's a lot to put on a dude who played zero snaps this year.
That's precisely why I think people are talking about the 2021 Patriots in a manner that doesn't really correspond to where they stand as a team. You hear "rebuild" and how they already made the playoffs and are ahead of schedule, but they had the 10th oldest roster in football last year and will have to replace a ton of veterans on defense with little cap space to spare for 2022. They are in this weird space where the rookie QB is in place but their roster in the short term will likely be unproven, but not necessarily young. You're right, they don't have many guys under contract on rookie deals that are either already established or just about to break out. Maybe Dugger and Barmore? I would've put Onwenu in this category but for some reason he doesn't play anymore.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,719
nm…accidental multi quote.




I’m not sure they all have to go, but I’m pretty much here as well. If we accept the quote he only wants to coach players he wants to be around, it’s hard not to think it applies at least as much for coaches he would effectively be living with.
to be clear I didn't mean fire the current staff, I meant the "get the band back together" approach of wanting Judge (not that he's take a ST coordinator job anyway) Flores, etc. to come back, as if resetting the coaching staff to 8 years ago would magically make things work. Going backward is rarely good in the NFL, you should always be looking for what is next.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
31,170
Hingham, MA
to be clear I didn't mean fire the current staff, I meant the "get the band back together" approach of wanting Judge (not that he's take a ST coordinator job anyway) Flores, etc. to come back, as if resetting the coaching staff to 8 years ago would magically make things work. Going backward is rarely good in the NFL, you should always be looking for what is next.
On the flip side they brought McDaniels back in early 2012 when BOB left for Houston and that has worked out pretty well for the past 10 years.

Daboll is another example of a coach with multiple stints for the Pats.

If they are good coaches BB should hire them. I doubt he has a chance at Flores. We’ll see how he handles Judge.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
4,077
Excellent points….I think it’s also worth noting that while Mac was good for a rookie this year, the Pats were also a really good team, among teams that have started a rookie QB, right? Usually rookie QB’s are on terrible teams that have high picks the following year (and sometimes for many years after). While it’s great that Mac was good, isn’t it going to be difficult to surround him with more talent in the next few years considering that the team is already pretty good, isn’t picking high in the draft, and is already pretty capped out, at least when compared to his peers? It’s not necessarily a problem but the Pats really need to nail the draft (with worse picks than a year ago) and hit on some budget FA picks. They are going to pay the price for some of the misses in last years spending spree.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
13,924
New York City
Hightower's cap hit was north of $12 MM this year, so I'm sure you're right you can replace his production for less. The problem is he's not under contract at all, and neither is Bentley, and there's not much cap space to speak of to fill that hole, as well as several others.

I'm not sure whether people realize this or not, but we basically haven't begun to pay for last offseason's spending spree.
2021 cap hits: Jonnu: 5.6 MM, Henry 6.8 MM, Agholor 6.9 MM, Godchaux 4 MM, Judon 6.3 MM
2022: Jonnu: 13.75 MM, Henry 15 MM, Agholor 15 MM, Godchaux 10.2 MM, Judon 16.5 MM
Those 5 guys are going to cost ~$40 MM more on the 2022 cap than they did in 2021.

And the other issue is they don't really have young guys waiting in the wings, like, anywhere on the roster. I mean, on paper you can say, well, they drafted Cameron McGrone last year in the 5th, he can take Hightower's snaps, but that's a lot to put on a dude who played zero snaps this year.
I'm convinced that fans think that you could replace bodies 11-53 on an NFL roster with veteran minimum guys, undrafted free agents, practice squad pickup and your left over draft picks and have a successful team. Because we as fans don't know the game enough to see why a core special teams linebacker is worth 2 million bucks a year or why you'd pay Ted Karras 3 million bucks for a year when you could use a rookie sixth round pick, but the fact is when you do that and do something like start Joe Vellano and Chris Jones all season you end up getting rocked in whatever unit you're doing that in.
 

j44thor

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
9,795
Hightower's cap hit was north of $12 MM this year, so I'm sure you're right you can replace his production for less. The problem is he's not under contract at all, and neither is Bentley, and there's not much cap space to speak of to fill that hole, as well as several others.

I'm not sure whether people realize this or not, but we basically haven't begun to pay for last offseason's spending spree.
2021 cap hits: Jonnu: 5.6 MM, Henry 6.8 MM, Agholor 6.9 MM, Godchaux 4 MM, Judon 6.3 MM
2022: Jonnu: 13.75 MM, Henry 15 MM, Agholor 15 MM, Godchaux 10.2 MM, Judon 16.5 MM
Those 5 guys are going to cost ~$40 MM more on the 2022 cap than they did in 2021.

And the other issue is they don't really have young guys waiting in the wings, like, anywhere on the roster. I mean, on paper you can say, well, they drafted Cameron McGrone last year in the 5th, he can take Hightower's snaps, but that's a lot to put on a dude who played zero snaps this year.
That is pretty sobering, those are some horrendous cap hits coming up. If they get the pre-BUF gm Judon he is easily worth the hit next year, post BUF Judon isn't worth 6.3. The rest of them aren't close to worth the hit. They really need Uche and Perkins to become starters next season and not go the way of the Wino. Would be nice if either Asiasi or Keene became useful but less likely to hit on either of them.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
31,170
Hingham, MA
That is pretty sobering, those are some horrendous cap hits coming up. If they get the pre-BUF gm Judon he is easily worth the hit next year, post BUF Judon isn't worth 6.3. The rest of them aren't close to worth the hit. They really need Uche and Perkins to become starters next season and not go the way of the Wino. Would be nice if either Asiasi or Keene became useful but less likely to hit on either of them.
Agreed. For all the talk of this team being up and coming or ahead of schedule or however you want to put it, there is a strong chance of a step backwards next year, or possibly just a repeat of 9-10 wins.
 

RSN Diaspora

molests goats for comedy
SoSH Member
Jul 29, 2005
9,448
Washington, DC
Hightower's cap hit was north of $12 MM this year, so I'm sure you're right you can replace his production for less. The problem is he's not under contract at all, and neither is Bentley, and there's not much cap space to speak of to fill that hole, as well as several others.

I'm not sure whether people realize this or not, but we basically haven't begun to pay for last offseason's spending spree.
2021 cap hits: Jonnu: 5.6 MM, Henry 6.8 MM, Agholor 6.9 MM, Godchaux 4 MM, Judon 6.3 MM
2022: Jonnu: 13.75 MM, Henry 15 MM, Agholor 15 MM, Godchaux 10.2 MM, Judon 16.5 MM
Those 5 guys are going to cost ~$40 MM more on the 2022 cap than they did in 2021.
Are these monies guaranteed, though? If not, any idea of dead money hits? I follow Miguel on Twitter, but I haven't seen this addressed.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
40,728
Hartford, CT
Are these monies guaranteed, though? If not, any idea of dead money hits? I follow Miguel on Twitter, but I haven't seen this addressed.
Spotrac is a great resource:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

Basically, they can’t get out of the Judon or Jonnu contracts until after 2022, and cutting Agholor (not happening) and Godchaux would carry a net dead cap hit of about 15M and net savings of about 10M.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
54,288
New York City
Spotrac is a great resource:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/cap/

Basically, they can’t get out of the Judon or Jonnu contracts until after 2022, and cutting Agholor (not happening) and Godchaux would carry a net dead cap hit of about 15M and net savings of about 10M.
I still don't get the Agholor signing. He's never had 900 yards in a season. He's had above 800 once.

Marvin Jones, Chase Claypool, Amon St. Brown, and Christian Kirk had over 800 yards this season. Those guys all make half, or more, what Nelson made. Just a terrible move to sign a guy who has never once had a great season in the NFL. Jonnu is a little less awful, despite the play. He is actually good, I have no idea what happened with him.
 

Trlicek's Whip

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 8, 2009
4,917
New York City
Agreed. For all the talk of this team being up and coming or ahead of schedule or however you want to put it, there is a strong chance of a step backwards next year, or possibly just a repeat of 9-10 wins.
Winning streaks are always euphoric and temporarily hide fool's gold-flaws.

That the 2021 team was competitive with a rookie QB and their record was "Pats normal" going into the bye shifted perceptions that this wasn't a rebuilding year after a shortened, lost season. And continually being impacted by the pandemic. Not just 2020's schedule, but the ripple effects of how its altered regular routines and conditioning ever since.

2021 and 2022 are better seen through a lens of the Pats currently playing with house money, and celebrating incremental in-season improvements like Mac Jones continuing to impress, the rookies leveling up, new or replacement coaches coming in and being effective, and another draft where they hit on 2-3 regulars that galvanize the roster.

And even if the spring will allow for normal and fully unrestricted off-season workouts and practices etc so that the team can once again take that structure for granted.
 
Last edited:

kenneycb

Hates Goose Island Beer; Loves Backdoor Play
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2006
14,892
Tuukka's refugee camp
Three of those guys are on rookie contracts. Marvin Jones was a FA last year but I have no idea what the other three have to do with your point.
 

jezza1918

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
1,123
South Dartmouth, MA
I still don't get the Agholor signing. He's never had 900 yards in a season. He's had above 800 once.

Marvin Jones, Chase Claypool, Amon St. Brown, and Christian Kirk had over 800 yards this season. Those guys all make half, or more, what Nelson made. Just a terrible move to sign a guy who has never once had a great season in the NFL. Jonnu is a little less awful, despite the play. He is actually good, I have no idea what happened with him.
I remember talking to an Eagles fan after the signing who was laughing about it...and rightfully so based on results. My defense of it at the time was I think Bill wanted at the very least a downfield threat to open up the middle of a field a bit for Mac (or I guess Cam) and the other receivers/tight ends to work with. That element was sorely lacking for the 2020 patriots, and Nelson was coming of a season where he averaged 18.7 ypc. I don't think it's a coincidence that Mac had his worst game of the season in the 2nd Buffalo game when Nelson was out. That said, I will never understand the amount they gave him...
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
Maybe the Pats do this with Agholor or maybe they don't, I don't know. But let's look at New England's passing offense, 2019-2021.

Comp %
2019: #24 (61.0%)
2020: #24 (64.3%)
2021: #5 (68.0%)

Pass Yds/G
2019: #8 (247.6)
2020: #30 (180.6)
2021: #14 (226.9)

Pass Yds/Att
2019: #21 (6.7)
2020: #21 (7.2)
2021: #7 (7.7)

Pass TD
2019: #16 (25)
2020: #31 (12)
2021: #15 (24)

Pass TD %
2019: #21 (4.0%)
2020: #31 (2.7%)
2021: #15 (4.5%)

Pass INT
2019: #11 (9)
2020: #23 (14)
2021: #11 (13)

Pass INT %
2019: #7 (1.5%)
2020: #30 (3.2%)
2021: #17 (2.4%)

Passer rating
2019: #16 (88.2)
2020: #27 (81.1)
2021: #12 (95.5)

Passing expected points
2019: #17 (77.89)
2020: #26 (4.99)
2021: #15 (115.80)

Points per game scored
2019: #7 (26.3)
2020: #27 (20.4)
2021: #6 (27.2)

Obviously in 2020 they had Cam, who wasn't a good thrower of the football. In 2019 they had Brady and Edelman and White, but not much else at the skill positions. In 2021 they have at best an average collection of pass-catchers - not bad, but not great - and a rookie at QB.

So how much did Agholor contribute to this obviously much-improved passing game? Improved not only from 2020 (obviously) but also improved from 2019. I'm not saying Mac was better than Brady. But the Patriots' passing offense in 2021 was MUCH better than it was in 2019, for whatever reason. I think Agholor positively contributed to this improvement even if his stats weren't great.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,719
I still don't get the Agholor signing. He's never had 900 yards in a season. He's had above 800 once.

Marvin Jones, Chase Claypool, Amon St. Brown, and Christian Kirk had over 800 yards this season. Those guys all make half, or more, what Nelson made. Just a terrible move to sign a guy who has never once had a great season in the NFL. Jonnu is a little less awful, despite the play. He is actually good, I have no idea what happened with him.
Jones is 31 and plays a different role in an offense he's not a home run threat anymore, so he doesn't move the safety opening up the underneath like Agholor does, the other 3 are all on rookie contracts which aren't comparable.

The comps for Agholor are:
Corey Davis- 3/37 (27M guaranteed)
Curtis Samuel 3/34.5 (23M guaranteed)
Will Fuller- 1/10M fully guaranteed.

Agholor's deal was 2/22 (16M guaranteed)

Agholor and Davis had basically identical season stats, Fuller had 26 yards total, Samuel had 27. The guy a tier up in Golladay (4/72 40M guaranteed) had 50 yards more than Agholor (and less TDs)

Given they got to limit him to 2 years, Agholor probably was the best deal of the tier 2 WRs last year.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
4,077
The house money, ahead of schedule, rookie QB stuff is cool but ignores all the money that the Pats spent / have committed and the relatively weak position they have in regards to upcoming draft picks. Seems like the near term future of the team is dependent on how they draft and identifying and acquiring some low priced talent, right? How do they go from a 10 win team to a 12 win team?
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
54,288
New York City
Jones is 31 and plays a different role in an offense he's not a home run threat anymore, so he doesn't move the safety opening up the underneath like Agholor does, the other 3 are all on rookie contracts which aren't comparable.

The comps for Agholor are:
Corey Davis- 3/37 (27M guaranteed)
Curtis Samuel 3/34.5 (23M guaranteed)
Will Fuller- 1/10M fully guaranteed.

Agholor's deal was 2/22 (16M guaranteed)

Agholor and Davis had basically identical season stats, Fuller had 26 yards total, Samuel had 27. The guy a tier up in Golladay (4/72 40M guaranteed) had 50 yards more than Agholor (and less TDs)

Given they got to limit him to 2 years, Agholor probably was the best deal of the tier 2 WRs last year.
Those contracts are horrendous, too. The only player who wasn't an disastrous and ridiculous overpay was Davis, who was decent this year but he was hurt a lot, too. Davis is actually a great WR, at least.

The fact that the idiotic Giants gave Golladay all that money doesn't mean the Pats did well because Nelson was cheaper. Both suck. And god knows that teams are thinking giving Fuller and Samuel contracts at all. We used to laugh at teams doing stupid things. Now we're like, "Well, we're like all the other idiot teams, so not bad."

edit - I mean, Agholor had 473 yards in 15 games. That's putrid.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
The house money, ahead of schedule, rookie QB stuff is cool but ignores all the money that the Pats spent / have committed and the relatively weak position they have in regards to upcoming draft picks. Seems like the near term future of the team is dependent on how they draft and identifying and acquiring some low priced talent, right? How do they go from a 10 win team to a 12 win team?
That might not happen for a few years. Maybe they hover at the 10-win mark for a couple of years, during which time Mac develops into a top-tier QB. Then when he's like 27 and some of the older dead wood has been removed and their younger players are now entering their prime, they vault to 12-13 win territory and become a perennial SB contender for a few years.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,719
Those contracts are horrendous, too. The only player who wasn't an disastrous and ridiculous overpay was Davis, who was decent this year but he was hurt a lot, too. Davis is actually a great WR, at least.

The fact that the idiotic Giants gave Golladay all that money doesn't mean the Pats did well because Nelson was cheaper. Both suck. And god knows that teams are thinking giving Fuller and Samuel contracts at all. We used to laugh at teams doing stupid things. Now we're like, "Well, we're like all the other idiot teams, so not bad."

edit - I mean, Agholor had 473 yards in 15 games. That's putrid.
It's the price of not being able to draft WRs. If you can't hit in the draft you have to sign them and WRs make a lot of money and are inconsistent outside the very top few, especially if you need a deep threat. So we limited ourselves to 2 years.

I will say, I think Agholor's presence opened things up, and he had several long TDs made if Mac makes better throws. He gets those and you're looking at something like 700-800 and 6 TDs, which is just fine for 11M.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
4,077
So how much did Agholor contribute to this obviously much-improved passing game? Improved not only from 2020 (obviously) but also improved from 2019. I'm not saying Mac was better than Brady. But the Patriots' passing offense in 2021 was MUCH better than it was in 2019, for whatever reason. I think Agholor positively contributed to this improvement even if his stats weren't great.
The relative ranking of the Pats based on a variety of passing stats is somehow due to the presence of Nelson Agholor? I think you could make a better argument for this based on Henry, since the 19 team had nothing at TE.

This years team ran the ball a lot more than two years ago (46% of plays vs 40%). They ran for 4.4 yards an attempt vs 3.8 yards. It was a more diversified offense than in Brady’s last year.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
54,288
New York City
It's the price of not being able to draft WRs. If you can't hit in the draft you have to sign them and WRs make a lot of money and are inconsistent outside the very top few, especially if you need a deep threat. So we limited ourselves to 2 years.

I will say, I think Agholor's presence opened things up, and he had several long TDs made if Mac makes better throws. He gets those and you're looking at something like 700-800 and 6 TDs, which is just fine for 11M.
But he didn't get those. You can't credit Nelson for catches he didn't make and touchdowns he didn't score.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
4,077
That might not happen for a few years. Maybe they hover at the 10-win mark for a couple of years, during which time Mac develops into a top-tier QB. Then when he's like 27 and some of the older dead wood has been removed and their younger players are now entering their prime, they vault to 12-13 win territory and become a perennial SB contender for a few years.
Hope that happens…..but if it does Mac’s salary will be taking up a big % of the cap by that time, no?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
The relative ranking of the Pats based on a variety of passing stats is somehow due to the presence of Nelson Agholor?
This is what's frustrating about arguing on SoSH. I never said what it seems like you're claiming I said. I said he was a positive contributor, and I asked how much he contributed. I never said that the improvement was "due to the presence of Nelson Agholor". He was, I think, part of the improvement, even if his personal stats weren't very good.

I think you could make a better argument for this based on Henry, since the 19 team had nothing at TE.

This years team ran the ball a lot more than two years ago (46% of plays vs 40%). They ran for 4.4 yards an attempt vs 3.8 yards. It was a more diversified offense than in Brady’s last year.
Agreed. That has helped. I don't know how much it's helped the passing numbers but it's helped the overall offense.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
Hope that happens…..but if it does Mac’s salary will be taking up a big % of the cap by that time, no?
Yep, probably by year 5 (2025). So there might be a couple of years in there when he's still making relatively small dollars (NFL-wise) but is playing at a really high level.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,719
But he didn't get those. You can't credit Nelson for catches he didn't make and touchdowns he didn't score.
Yes, but you can look at that when deciding whether he may produce value in the future.
Allen Robinson had a terrible year, yet... I still bet he's a good WR and will get paid, because he ahd a combination of Andy Dalton and raw rookie Justin Fields at QB.

Edit- final stats tell you production, but not necessarily performance for WRs. I thought Agholor was... mediocre. He gets paid like he's mediocre. He drew safety attention, he got open deep, that's the bulk of his job. When evaluating performance and projecting for next year, you want to see how he played not just his stats, so it is important to note things like "he got wide open for a TD and his QB missed the throw" Just like if I'm evaluating Mac, I wouldn't say. Ah, he hit a guy in the hands in the EZ, but it was dropped so it was bad.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
54,288
New York City
Yes, but you can look at that when deciding whether he may produce value in the future.
Allen Robinson had a terrible year, yet... I still bet he's a good WR and will get paid, because he ahd a combination of Andy Dalton and raw rookie Justin Fields at QB.
Allen Robinson has also had 3 1100 yard seasons. He's a player who has performed.

Agholor has zero 900 yard seasons in his career. And he's had a total of one 800 yard season in 7 years. Not a good comp.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
31,170
Hingham, MA
Randy Moss had 42 catches for 553 yards and 3 TDs on 96 targets in 2006 (43.75%). Agholor is no Moss, but there are many reasons that the numbers may not tell the whole story.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
13,675
Mansfield MA
I still don't get the Agholor signing. He's never had 900 yards in a season. He's had above 800 once.

Marvin Jones, Chase Claypool, Amon St. Brown, and Christian Kirk had over 800 yards this season. Those guys all make half, or more, what Nelson made. Just a terrible move to sign a guy who has never once had a great season in the NFL. Jonnu is a little less awful, despite the play. He is actually good, I have no idea what happened with him.
I think it's funny to say you don't like the Agholor signing because he's never had 900 yards in a season, while calling Jonnu, who's never even had 450 yards in a season, "actually good."
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
54,288
New York City
Randy Moss had 42 catches for 553 yards and 3 TDs on 96 targets in 2006 (43.75%). Agholor is no Moss, but there are many reasons that the numbers may not tell the whole story.
Are you suggesting Moss didn't have monster seasons before 2006?

Agholor has never had a monster season. He's done it 0 times in his career. Moss had 7 1000 yard seasons in the books when the Pats signed him.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
4,077
This is what's frustrating about arguing on SoSH. I never said what it seems like you're claiming I said. I said he was a positive contributor, and I asked how much he contributed. I never said that the improvement was "due to the presence of Nelson Agholor". He was, I think, part of the improvement, even if his personal stats weren't very good.
Well, there are a lot variables that changed from 2019 to 2021 for the Pats that impacted their ranking amongst all teams for a variety of passing stats (WR, schedule, margin of victory, % passing vs throwing, QB, weather, etc). It’s possible that Agholor was a positive on the team despite lackluster numbers and it would be interesting to see a case made for that.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
Agholor's avgs pre-2021: 76 tgt, 45 rec, 59.6% catch rate, 568 yds, 4 td
Agholor 2021 stats: 64 tgt, 37 rec, 57.8% catch rate, 473 yds, 3 td

I mean, not too far off his average numbers for his career. Not sure THAT player is worth what he is getting paid, but remember, there's only one football to go around, and the Pats are a run-heavy team (25th in the NFL in pass attempts, 8th in rush attempts), so there's going to be fewer passes to be caught than the vast majority of teams. Everyone is part of the larger whole. So you could have a WR that doesn't catch as many passes, but draws defenders away that opens up the field for teammates. In that sense, he's STILL contributing to the overall offensive success. Blocking as well - the Pats' WRs were great blockers this year, one reason (among several) why their running game was so good.

Given that the Pats signed Bourne, Agholor, Henry, and Jonnu, it's not reasonable to have expected them all to put up bigger numbers.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,719
Allen Robinson has also had 3 1100 yard seasons. He's a player who has performed.

Agholor has zero 900 yard seasons in his career. And he's had a total of one 800 yard season in 7 years. Not a good comp.
Yeah and RObinson is going to get paid like $20M a year. The point is, players performance isn't just their stats. Agholor had around 500 yards, that's not great for 11M, but honestly... not that bad, that's kinda the WR market for deep threats on short term deals. He could easily have had more with good QB play.

I also find it funny you keep saying "he never had monster seasons" well yeah, if he had he'd be getting more than 2/22.
Agholor's 4 years before the Patriots he averaged about 819 yards per 16 game pace.
Corey Davis (he of the coveted 900 yard season) averaged.... 815 yards per 16

The weird arbitrary yard breakdowns are dumb, since they are usually a product of.. volume, offense and games played. Agholor was the 2nd best WR (and that just barely, he was essentially tied for #1) on a SB team, do you think they cared that he came in just under 800 yards in 16 games (10 starts)?
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
31,170
Hingham, MA
Are you suggesting Moss didn't have monster seasons before 2006?

Agholor has never had a monster season. He's done it 0 times in his career. Moss had 7 1000 yard seasons in the books when the Pats signed him.
Nope, just that the numbers alone don’t necessarily mean anything.
 

rodderick

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 24, 2009
9,341
Belo Horizonte - Brazil
Agholor's avgs pre-2021: 76 tgt, 45 rec, 59.6% catch rate, 568 yds, 4 td
Agholor 2021 stats: 64 tgt, 37 rec, 57.8% catch rate, 473 yds, 3 td

I mean, not too far off his average numbers for his career. Not sure THAT player is worth what he is getting paid, but remember, there's only one football to go around, and the Pats are a run-heavy team (25th in the NFL in pass attempts, 8th in rush attempts), so there's going to be fewer passes to be caught than the vast majority of teams. Everyone is part of the larger whole. So you could have a WR that doesn't catch as many passes, but draws defenders away that opens up the field for teammates. In that sense, he's STILL contributing to the overall offensive success. Blocking as well - the Pats' WRs were great blockers this year, one reason (among several) why their running game was so good.

Given that the Pats signed Bourne, Agholor, Henry, and Jonnu, it's not reasonable to have expected them all to put up bigger numbers.
I'm willing to bet if you exclude his season with the Raiders, his 2021 numbers fall right in line with his career averages.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
I'm willing to bet if you exclude his season with the Raiders, his 2021 numbers fall right in line with his career averages.
Yep. Which makes him a useful, helpful WR - nothing spectacular, but as @Cellar-Door points out, if he was spectacular, he'd be making a lot more than the Pats are paying him.

I personally think he was an overpay, but that doesn't mean he wasn't helpful this year. I think he definitely was.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
26,719
Another thing about WRs.... volume is king.

Agholor's rate stats are very close to DK Metcalf and also close to Stephon Diggs (Y/Tar, catch%, etc.) but Agholor got 64 targets and sub 500 yards, where Metcalf got 129 and just under 1000 yards, Diggs got 164 targets and 1225 yards.

Or... the Marvin Jones mention upthread... 120 targets.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
13,675
Mansfield MA
Jonnu plays WR?
448 yards isn't terribly impressive even for a TE, certainly not a level of production that generally gets you paid like a top 6 player at the position. They paid Jonnu like he was going to be better than he'd ever been, and instead he took a significant step back.

I'm willing to bet if you exclude his season with the Raiders, his 2021 numbers fall right in line with his career averages.
Yes, but his career averages also include the first two seasons of his career when he was bad. His last three seasons in Philadelphia, Agholor averaged 43.8 yards per game, more than 10 YPG more than he did this year (31.8).

Agholor was also OK this year on a yards per target basis: 7.4 isn't amazing or anything, but it's the solid. The issue is he just hardly got any targets despite playing a lot.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
It was a target thing too with Jonnu.

2020: 65 targets, 41 rec, 63.1% catch rate, 6.9 yds/tgt
2021: 45 targets, 28 rec, 62.2% catch rate, 6.5 yds/tgt

He definitely wasn't close in terms of TD production, but otherwise his rate stats were similar to last year.
 

dynomite

Member
SoSH Member
Been with Pats since 1999, even before BB. Pretty remarkable run if this was it.
Probably deserves its own thread, but for some reason I always felt Scar was more "known" at least to the average fan -- especially since he had been with the team since '91 -- but Fears' tenure is remarkable. In fact, I didn't realize until now that Fears ALSO dates to the 1991 McPherson Pats, but had left to coach with the Bears from '93-'98.

Here's an article from a few years ago showing he was already one of the longest tenured assistant coaches in the NFL: https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/8/31/16233082/patriots-rb-coach-ivan-fears-is-the-third-longest-tenured-coach-in-the-nfl

If he does retire this offseason I hope the team has something planned to celebrate that legacy. Would love to watch an interview with him about his tenure.
 

Gash Prex

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 18, 2002
5,797
Maybe I'm missing something, but the Pats were #7 in scoring this season with a (very good) rookie QB. It would be great to get a Calvin Ridley or stud WR in the draft (highly unlikely), is the offense really a major concern? The offense was inconsistent at times but I still see that as more of a rookie QB + new FA issue.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
Maybe I'm missing something, but the Pats were #7 in scoring this season with a (very good) rookie QB. It would be great to get a Calvin Ridley or stud WR in the draft (highly unlikely), is the offense really a major concern? The offense was inconsistent at times but I still see that as more of a rookie QB + new FA issue.
The offense was very good this year. It should be very good next year. But there's definitely room for improvement. Nonetheless, the major issues are on D - which is kind of hard to believe given that they had the #2 ranked scoring defense and #4 ranked yardage defense in the league. But, well, here we are.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 13, 2021
4,077
The offense was pretty uninspiring down the stretch, at least to start games, though. While the overall #s may be ok…in the final four losses of the season (Colts, Bills, Dolphins, Bills) the Pats were outscored 78-17 in the first half, with 0 passing TD’s. Seems like more of the concerns are on D based on personnel under contract, but the O could certainly use some help too, I think.
 

Shelterdog

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2002
13,924
New York City
The offense was very good this year. It should be very good next year. But there's definitely room for improvement. Nonetheless, the major issues are on D - which is kind of hard to believe given that they had the #2 ranked scoring defense and #4 ranked yardage defense in the league. But, well, here we are.
So isn't the issue that if you're going to compete with Mahomes/Allen over the next 8 years (and just focussing on the next three or four) that you might not be able to win with just very good offense unless you have an amazing defense, and it's hard to see where that amazing defense comes from given how many holes there are in the defense?
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
17,496
So isn't the issue that if you're going to compete with Mahomes/Allen over the next 8 years (and just focussing on the next three or four) that you might not be able to win with just very good offense unless you have an amazing defense, and it's hard to see where that amazing defense comes from given how many holes there are in the defense?
It is a problem, isn't it? They've got their work cut out for them.
 

Super Nomario

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 5, 2000
13,675
Mansfield MA
It was a target thing too with Jonnu.

2020: 65 targets, 41 rec, 63.1% catch rate, 6.9 yds/tgt
2021: 45 targets, 28 rec, 62.2% catch rate, 6.5 yds/tgt

He definitely wasn't close in terms of TD production, but otherwise his rate stats were similar to last year.
Fair point, though I'd say it's less of a "targets" issue and more of a playing time issue in Jonnu's case. He went from playing 745 offensive snaps in 2020 to playing just 526 (in one more game). His targets / numbers basically scaled down accordingly.

It's also important to note a) those rate stats are really bad. 6.5 yards per target puts him in the bottom 5 tight ends if he had enough volume to qualify for rate stats. And that's a lousy catch rate for someone who was mostly catching short stuff. b) Even Jonnu's 2020, his best season, wasn't that great. He was an upside gamble on physical tools who has never truly played to his potential, and he looks like a very bad gamble right now.

Maybe I'm missing something, but the Pats were #7 in scoring this season with a (very good) rookie QB. It would be great to get a Calvin Ridley or stud WR in the draft (highly unlikely), is the offense really a major concern? The offense was inconsistent at times but I still see that as more of a rookie QB + new FA issue.
The O was below-average more often than it was good, but when it was good it was AMAZING. It's hard to take their seasonal averages at face value. They scored 45+ point three times but only hit 30 one other time.

Ideally we would improve the offense, but the issue is the cake is pretty baked there. They just signed all of Agholor, Bourne, Henry, and Smith, and all those guys are under contract for 2022 (and in many cases beyond). They'll have to do something with the OL free agents and figure out third-down back, but the defense is full of key contributors who are old and / or hitting free agency.

So isn't the issue that if you're going to compete with Mahomes/Allen over the next 8 years (and just focussing on the next three or four) that you might not be able to win with just very good offense unless you have an amazing defense, and it's hard to see where that amazing defense comes from given how many holes there are in the defense?
The flip side of this is, can you really compete with the Chiefs and Bills in a shootout anyway? They both have amazing QBs and at least one dominant receiver. Mac will probably never be as good as Mahomes or Allen and he'll probably never have a receiving target as good as Kelce / Hill or Diggs, so aren't we better off trying to invest elsewhere and win in a different way?