OK, I am going to ask the question: Has BB lost his fastball?

lexrageorge

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Miguel has them with $2.5 MM in cap space for 2022. OTC's projection (which is $21.5 MM, not $27 MM) is rosy. Also, cutting guys like Asiasi and Keene and Winovich and Asiasi doesn't really save you any money. The nominal savings of less than a million is offset by the reality of needing to replace them with some other contract, so you save a couple hundred K at most.
Multiple sources have them at around $27M. The cap is expected to be around 206 or higher. Something seems off unless there is a big NLTBE carryover.
 

jsinger121

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Root for Mayo to get the Houston job so the Pats can pick up an extra 3rd round comp pick.
2 3rd rounders actually. One in the next 2 drafts. I definitely agree I want him to get a job as I think he would take a coordinator job to leave New England anyways.
 

mcpickl

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Multiple sources have them at around $27M. The cap is expected to be around 206 or higher. Something seems off unless there is a big NLTBE carryover.
You can always feel very safe trusting Miguel over other places.

He's on it
 

McBride11

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With the QB class the way it is, you could see a QB needy team trade back up into the early 20s for a Corral or a Kenny Pickett or a Malik Willis.
QB needy teams
Pitt
Denver
Det
NO
Car

Maybe
NYG if they move on from Jones
Minny
ATL if they go for Ryan replacement
Indy if they are over Wentz
Hou if they move on from Watson, though their guy this year was decent.

Maybe Det gives up their early 2nd and a 4th to get back into the 20s, especially if Pitt wins and the Pats are ahead of them. But Det also needs so much help
 

Eddie Jurak

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Here’s Miguel’s explanation.

View attachment 48395
Most of that makes sense. I am, however, skeptical about the tenders. Really a second round tender to Meyers? Only of the goal is to stop him getting any offers, because no one is giving a second for Meyers. Are Gunner and Johnson really free agent targets for other teams? Why not tender Meyers at the $2.4 number and not tender the others. Maybe someone else wants Meyers, but he seems to have a niche here that makes him more valuable here than he would be elsewhere. Is he the type of guy teams would want to overspend on? I don't see it.

Edit: To come at this from another angle, the Pats tendered JCJ at the second round level last year. I thought they were being crazy not to tender him at the first round level and that other teams were crazy for not pouncing on JCJ. Whether I (and teams) were right or wong about that, JCJ is simply a different class of player than Meyers.
 

mcpickl

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Most of that makes sense. I am, however, skeptical about the tenders. Really a second round tender to Meyers? Only of the goal is to stop him getting any offers, because no one is giving a second for Meyers. Are Gunner and Johnson really free agent targets for other teams? Why not tender Meyers at the $2.4 number and not tender the others. Maybe someone else wants Meyers, but he seems to have a niche here that makes him more valuable here than he would be elsewhere. Is he the type of guy teams would want to overspend on? I don't see it.

Edit: To come at this from another angle, the Pats tendered JCJ at the second round level last year. I thought they were being crazy not to tender him at the first round level and that other teams were crazy for not pouncing on JCJ. Whether I (and teams) were right or wong about that, JCJ is simply a different class of player than Meyers.
The next step down as a tender is original round. Since Jakobi was undrafted, you'd get zero if you didn't match and you'd just open yourself up to matching a bigger offer.

If you tender him at 3.9M for the second rounder, very unlikely anyone tries to sign him.
If you tender him at 2.4M for the original round, someone will surely offer him more than 3.9M since there is no draft pick lost.
 

BaseballJones

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Jackson was incredible two years ago, but folks said it was because he was covering the opposing teams' #2 receivers (with Gilmore covering their #1). So this year he's the undisputed #1 CB on the Pats. Makes 2nd team all-pro. Who was 1st team all-pro? Diggs and Ramsey. Let's compare the three.

Ramsey: 58-98 (59.2%), 624 yds, 6.4 yds/tgt, 10.8 yds/comp, 3 td, 4 int, 71.1 rating
Diggs: 54-103 (52.4%), 907 yds, 8.8 yds/tgt, 16.8 yds/comp, 4 td, 11 int, 55.8 rating, 52 tackles
Jackson: 52-106 (49.1%), 658 yds, 6.2 yds/tgt, 12.7 yds/comp, 3 td, 8 int, 46.8 rating, 58 tackles
 

BaseballJones

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Well, we shall see. Our opinions don’t really count.
Well definitely I don't know if BB will sign him. No clue about that. But he's ABSOLUTELY a #1 corner. He was either the best or 2nd best corner in the NFL this year. Ramsey is the other.
 

rodderick

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Well definitely I don't know if BB will sign him. No clue about that. But he's ABSOLUTELY a #1 corner. He was either the best or 2nd best corner in the NFL this year. Ramsey is the other.
Yeah, I'm really puzzled by this argument. If you think you can spend the JC money to improve the team elsewhere, that's fine. But he'll get number 1 CB contract because he's indisputably a number 1 CB.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The next step down as a tender is original round. Since Jakobi was undrafted, you'd get zero if you didn't match and you'd just open yourself up to matching a bigger offer.

If you tender him at 3.9M for the second rounder, very unlikely anyone tries to sign him.
If you tender him at 2.4M for the original round, someone will surely offer him more than 3.9M since there is no draft pick lost.
Either you or Miguel has to be wrong about this, because he suggests "right of refusal" tenders to Gunner (undrafted) and Johnson (undrafted).
 

mcpickl

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Either you or Miguel has to be wrong about this, because he suggests "right of refusal" tenders to Gunner (undrafted) and Johnson (undrafted).
Well obviously, it would be me not Miguel. I wrote "original round" rather than "right of refusal"

Works out the same tho. No compensation if you don't match.

CORRECTION

If you tender him at 3.9M for the second rounder, very unlikely anyone tries to sign him.
If you tender him at 2.4M for the right of refusal, someone will surely offer him more than 3.9M since there is no draft pick lost.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Well obviously, it would be me not Miguel. I wrote "original round" rather than "right of refusal"

Works out the same tho. No compensation if you don't match.

CORRECTION

If you tender him at 3.9M for the second rounder, very unlikely anyone tries to sign him.
If you tender him at 2.4M for the right of refusal, someone will surely offer him more than 3.9M since there is no draft pick lost.
Oh, OK. I misunderstood. No compensation. Fine
 

SMU_Sox

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Flores is getting a HC job this cycle. Like identifying iocane powder, I’d bet my life on it.
 

jsinger121

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If anyone is coming back it will be Judge considering the Giants will be paying his salary.
 

Harry Hooper

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BTW, on 98.5 towards the end of the game last night they were suggesting Fears is retiring.
 

SMU_Sox

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If anyone is coming back it will be Judge considering the Giants will be paying his salary.
If players have not soured on him for reasons that IdiotKicker mentioned then I think this is a good move for both sides.

BTW, on 98.5 towards the end of the game last night they were suggesting Fears is retiring.
That is bad news. RB was another position they have had a lot of success developing quality starters. Losing Dante and Fears in 2 years is tough to swallow.
 

Ale Xander

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I hope our minority assistant coaches and coordinators get hired because right now there is one black HC in the NFL. I’m not going to lie and say I don’t care about the picks but I’m more happy for the guy getting a chance in a league with too few black head coaches vs getting pick 97 as a bonus in consecutive years. Not trying to high road or anything it’s just there’s a lot of talk about the picks and rooting for guys to get hired because #picks and that bothers me a little bit. Like with Mayo I hope he stays personally because we need leadership right now IMO and we’re about to have another shoe drop with aging defensive vets leaving. If he does get an offer than I hope he takes it. Selfishly the Pats could really use him.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Most of that makes sense. I am, however, skeptical about the tenders. Really a second round tender to Meyers? Only of the goal is to stop him getting any offers, because no one is giving a second for Meyers. Are Gunner and Johnson really free agent targets for other teams? Why not tender Meyers at the $2.4 number and not tender the others. Maybe someone else wants Meyers, but he seems to have a niche here that makes him more valuable here than he would be elsewhere. Is he the type of guy teams would want to overspend on? I don't see it.

Edit: To come at this from another angle, the Pats tendered JCJ at the second round level last year. I thought they were being crazy not to tender him at the first round level and that other teams were crazy for not pouncing on JCJ. Whether I (and teams) were right or wong about that, JCJ is simply a different class of player than Meyers.
Gunner has value as an extremely low cost ST player. At $2.4M, his value evaporates as he occupies too much of the cap in relation to what he produces on ST, which is 95% returning an occasional punt. No way tagging him in the way Miguel mentions makes sense. As far as Meyers is concerned, the best for all parties is to work out a longer term deal, not the tender.
 

Cellar-Door

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I hope we bring back zero old coordinators. Those teams didn't win because of the coordinators, they won because of the talent, if anything I think Bill needs to be more aggressive in hiring outside coordinators/coaches who come from different backgrounds to get some new blood and new opinions in the building. The best run for the Patriots was when they were early on the spread, this team feels like it's gotten stagnant on both ends. One example is... you have a good run game, you have a QB who ran a ton of RPO in college... RPO has been used very effectively by some of the best offenses... but the Patriots don't even sprinkle it in. It feels like Bill and Josh and the rest of the staff has stagnated into what is comfortable.
 
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Gunner has value as an extremely low cost ST player. At $2.4M, his value evaporates as he occupies too much of the cap in relation to what he produces on ST, which is 95% returning an occasional punt. No way tagging him in the way Miguel mentions makes sense. As far as Meyers is concerned, the best for all parties is to work out a longer term deal, not the tender.
Plus it looked like he lost 2 steps this year. I would be shocked to see him back at 2.4 mm.
 
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IIRC, in Patriot Reign, Holley's all access book about the early 2000's championships, quite the opposite of a yes-men culture was portrayed. Dissenting opinions were not only tolerated, they were encouraged. As long as the agenda was to improve the team, and you could back it up with evidence(data, film, etc.).
IIRC, in the Belichick special filmed during the 2009 season, he expressed frustration, both verbally and visually, that the coaches didn't seem to be willing to offer dissenting opinions or challenge him on anything.
 

Super Nomario

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Gunner has value as an extremely low cost ST player. At $2.4M, his value evaporates as he occupies too much of the cap in relation to what he produces on ST, which is 95% returning an occasional punt. No way tagging him in the way Miguel mentions makes sense. As far as Meyers is concerned, the best for all parties is to work out a longer term deal, not the tender.
Yeah, I think they might try to get something done with Gunner and Jakob at a lower price point than the original round tender. I imagine those guys are seen as more minimum salary players around the league. Re: a long-term deal with Meyers, I dunno. $3.9 MM is pretty low for an effective WR nowadays. If you work out a long-term deal, you're likely going to pay more than that annually, though you can backload it. As almost always with NE pending FA, it comes down to whether Meyers wants to stay or wants to maximize his earnings; not many do both.
 

j44thor

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Yeah, I think they might try to get something done with Gunner and Jakob at a lower price point than the original round tender. I imagine those guys are seen as more minimum salary players around the league. Re: a long-term deal with Meyers, I dunno. $3.9 MM is pretty low for an effective WR nowadays. If you work out a long-term deal, you're likely going to pay more than that annually, though you can backload it. As almost always with NE pending FA, it comes down to whether Meyers wants to stay or wants to maximize his earnings; not many do both.
What is Meyers value on the open market though? Seems like most teams have a Meyers or two just that they are further down the depth chart on most teams. He gets by with savvy and intelligence as his athleticism is severely limited. He seems to be able to effectively beat zone concepts which I guess the majority of the NFL runs these days but slow smallish possession receivers just don't seem to be in demand. To me Meyers was the go to guy because he was one of the few guys Mac could trust to run the right routes and catch the damn ball. Kind of like when Reche Caldwell lead the 2006 Pats in REC/REC yards. He was by no means a good player, he was just a decent player in the right situation. I think Meyers is a great story but I also think he is largely fungible.
 

BigSoxFan

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What is Meyers value on the open market though? Seems like most teams have a Meyers or two just that they are further down the depth chart on most teams. He gets by with savvy and intelligence as his athleticism is severely limited. He seems to be able to effectively beat zone concepts which I guess the majority of the NFL runs these days but slow smallish possession receivers just don't seem to be in demand. To me Meyers was the go to guy because he was one of the few guys Mac could trust to run the right routes and catch the damn ball. Kind of like when Reche Caldwell lead the 2006 Pats in REC/REC yards. He was by no means a good player, he was just a decent player in the right situation. I think Meyers is a great story but I also think he is largely fungible.
Yeah, what does Meyers do that Bourne doesn’t? I’d like to keep Meyers but I would also like to see a shiftier slot guy that every team seems to have but us.
 

Super Nomario

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What is Meyers value on the open market though? Seems like most teams have a Meyers or two just that they are further down the depth chart on most teams. He gets by with savvy and intelligence as his athleticism is severely limited. He seems to be able to effectively beat zone concepts which I guess the majority of the NFL runs these days but slow smallish possession receivers just don't seem to be in demand. To me Meyers was the go to guy because he was one of the few guys Mac could trust to run the right routes and catch the damn ball. Kind of like when Reche Caldwell lead the 2006 Pats in REC/REC yards. He was by no means a good player, he was just a decent player in the right situation. I think Meyers is a great story but I also think he is largely fungible.
I think you're selling Meyers way short here - no, he's not as good as Edelman or Welker or Troy Brown, but he's probably better than Danny Amendola ever was. He's been durable, he's big for a slot, he has good hands, he's not super quick but he's a good route runner, knows the offense, and has shown some ability to beat press on the outside. He's coming off his second straight year leading the team in receiving; he actually was more efficient on a per-target / per-snap basis in 2020 with Cam throwing to him.

But even if you're lower on Meyers than I am, here is my point: you can save almost $4 MM if you don't give him an RFA tender, but now you lost a guy who played a ton of snaps and you have to replace him. Can you replace him for less money? Unlikely in free agency, and if you use the draft to solve that problem that's a) an opportunity cost when we need to add young talent throughout the roster, b) a situation where now you have to rely on a rookie WR, which is pretty dicey. Like who is the internal option right now if Meyers walks? More snaps for Harry? Kristian Wilkerson? Tre Nixon?

This is just one example of the issues throughout the roster with trying to save cap money in 2022. You can save $5MM cutting Kyle Van Noy, but he was 6th on the team in defensive snaps; who plays those now? You can let Bentley and Hightower walk; fine, but those guys were 8th and 9th in snaps and now you need two LBs. You can cut Godchaux after a year to save $5 MM, but he let all DL in snaps played, so someone has to pick up the slack there. It's going to be really hard to fill all these roles for less money.

Yeah, what does Meyers do that Bourne doesn’t? I’d like to keep Meyers but I would also like to see a shiftier slot guy that every team seems to have but us.
The coaching staff certainly thinks there's something, because Meyers outsnapped Bourne in every game this season and overall played about 50% more snaps. In fact, he led all Patriots skill players in snaps (~85%) and it was not close (Hunter Henry was #2 at ~68%). And it's not an either/or - Meyers and Bourne played together in 3 WR sets, so even if you think Bourne is better, there's room for both.
 

BigSoxFan

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I never said there wasn’t room for both and I said I preferred to keep Meyers but I do question how good a WR corp that features both guys in 3 WR set can ever be. Clearly, Agholor is the guy to upgrade, IMO, although I have no idea how they do that in any material way given the cap constraints. Allen Robinson is a guy I would love to have.
 

BaseballJones

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I think you're selling Meyers way short here - no, he's not as good as Edelman or Welker or Troy Brown, but he's probably better than Danny Amendola ever was. He's been durable, he's big for a slot, he has good hands, he's not super quick but he's a good route runner, knows the offense, and has shown some ability to beat press on the outside. He's coming off his second straight year leading the team in receiving; he actually was more efficient on a per-target / per-snap basis in 2020 with Cam throwing to him.

But even if you're lower on Meyers than I am, here is my point: you can save almost $4 MM if you don't give him an RFA tender, but now you lost a guy who played a ton of snaps and you have to replace him. Can you replace him for less money? Unlikely in free agency, and if you use the draft to solve that problem that's a) an opportunity cost when we need to add young talent throughout the roster, b) a situation where now you have to rely on a rookie WR, which is pretty dicey. Like who is the internal option right now if Meyers walks? More snaps for Harry? Kristian Wilkerson? Tre Nixon?

This is just one example of the issues throughout the roster with trying to save cap money in 2022. You can save $5MM cutting Kyle Van Noy, but he was 6th on the team in defensive snaps; who plays those now? You can let Bentley and Hightower walk; fine, but those guys were 8th and 9th in snaps and now you need two LBs. You can cut Godchaux after a year to save $5 MM, but he let all DL in snaps played, so someone has to pick up the slack there. It's going to be really hard to fill all these roles for less money.


The coaching staff certainly thinks there's something, because Meyers outsnapped Bourne in every game this season and overall played about 50% more snaps. In fact, he led all Patriots skill players in snaps (~85%) and it was not close (Hunter Henry was #2 at ~68%). And it's not an either/or - Meyers and Bourne played together in 3 WR sets, so even if you think Bourne is better, there's room for both.
It's not hard to replace those guys for less money. It's hard to replace them for less money if you want to improve in those spots. Obviously, they'd like to improve there. But....take Hightower. There isn't a Pats fan alive that doesn't love that guy - he's been instrumental in three SB titles here. But clearly he isn't the same player. You can probably pay a lower amount for a lesser name, but a guy who probably can still play at or maybe even above Hightower's present level. I'm sure such a guy exists that BB could snag.
 

Shelterdog

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It's not hard to replace those guys for less money. It's hard to replace them for less money if you want to improve in those spots. Obviously, they'd like to improve there. But....take Hightower. There isn't a Pats fan alive that doesn't love that guy - he's been instrumental in three SB titles here. But clearly he isn't the same player. You can probably pay a lower amount for a lesser name, but a guy who probably can still play at or maybe even above Hightower's present level. I'm sure such a guy exists that BB could snag.
ok so name names- who is the person who’s going to be better than agoholor at less than 5m, who is better than Godchaux at 5m, who is better than Hightower for 3 million? Everyone loves the idea of stripping a team of every person who’s not a pro bowl
Skill position player of pass rusher and using the money to get impact free agents but it’s like really hard to get players (other than good draft picks) who cost less than 2
Million a year yet deserve major playing time
 

lexrageorge

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ok so name names- who is the person who’s going to be better than agoholor at less than 5m, who is better than Godchaux at 5m, who is better than Hightower for 3 million? Everyone loves the idea of stripping a team of every person who’s not a pro bowl
Skill position player of pass rusher and using the money to get impact free agents but it’s like really hard to get players (other than good draft picks) who cost less than 2
Million a year yet deserve major playing time
We’ll, there’s an almost 100% chance that Hightower will not be a NFL caliber player next season. I would say there is little chance he is on the roster; he certainly shouldn’t be.

Still, agree that many of the other players mentioned will likely be back. Godchaux, for example, is probably fairly paid for his production.
 

Shelterdog

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We’ll, there’s an almost 100% chance that Hightower will not be a NFL caliber player next season. I would say there is little chance he is on the roster; he certainly shouldn’t be.

Still, agree that many of the other players mentioned will likely be back. Godchaux, for example, is probably fairly paid for his production.
It’s pretty clearly time to move on from
Hightower and maybe he’s the wrong example but I think the question still stands-who is the 3 million a year guy you’re getting who you’re comfortable taking sixty percent or more of your LB snaps to replace a Hightower or van noy or Bentley ? I think folks don’t realize that competent veterans are as expensive and hard to come by as they actually are.
 

sezwho

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nm…accidental multi quote.


I hope we bring back zero old coordinators. Those teams didn't win because of the coordinators, they won because of the talent, if anything I think Bill needs to be more aggressive in hiring outside coordinators/coaches who come from different backgrounds to get some new blood and new opinions in the building. The best run for the Patriots was when they were early on the spread, this team feels like it's gotten stagnant on both ends. One example is... you have a good run game, you have a QB who ran a ton of RPO in college... RPO has been used very effectively by some of the best offenses... but the Patriots don't even sprinkle it in. It feels like Bill and Josh and the rest of the staff has stagnated into what is comfortable.
I’m not sure they all have to go, but I’m pretty much here as well. If we accept the quote he only wants to coach players he wants to be around, it’s hard not to think it applies at least as much for coaches he would effectively be living with.
 

Super Nomario

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It's not hard to replace those guys for less money. It's hard to replace them for less money if you want to improve in those spots. Obviously, they'd like to improve there. But....take Hightower. There isn't a Pats fan alive that doesn't love that guy - he's been instrumental in three SB titles here. But clearly he isn't the same player. You can probably pay a lower amount for a lesser name, but a guy who probably can still play at or maybe even above Hightower's present level. I'm sure such a guy exists that BB could snag.
Hightower's cap hit was north of $12 MM this year, so I'm sure you're right you can replace his production for less. The problem is he's not under contract at all, and neither is Bentley, and there's not much cap space to speak of to fill that hole, as well as several others.

I'm not sure whether people realize this or not, but we basically haven't begun to pay for last offseason's spending spree.
2021 cap hits: Jonnu: 5.6 MM, Henry 6.8 MM, Agholor 6.9 MM, Godchaux 4 MM, Judon 6.3 MM
2022: Jonnu: 13.75 MM, Henry 15 MM, Agholor 15 MM, Godchaux 10.2 MM, Judon 16.5 MM
Those 5 guys are going to cost ~$40 MM more on the 2022 cap than they did in 2021.

And the other issue is they don't really have young guys waiting in the wings, like, anywhere on the roster. I mean, on paper you can say, well, they drafted Cameron McGrone last year in the 5th, he can take Hightower's snaps, but that's a lot to put on a dude who played zero snaps this year.