Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al

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Average Game James

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They would be nutz NOT to max Durant out since allowing him to walk doesn't not free up any cap space. The Warriors have already taken in over $2B in revenue (yes that is BILLION!) from the new arena in the form of tickets, suites, and sponsorships.......the luxury tax and repeater tax is way behind the curve when it comes to this organization.
$2bn over what time period though? I’d be shocked if it’s over the next 4 years. And let’s not forget the new arena will cost like $1.3bn to build as well. Maxing Klay and KD is a nearly $1bn decision for the franchise (and for context, the team was valued at $3.5bn in the most recent Forbes list). Spending that over 4 years for essentially 2 years of a team when all the key stars will be over 30 is very risky. Calling it “nutz” not to spend that is being awfully cavalier with an insane amount of money.
 

benhogan

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They would be nutz NOT to max Durant out since allowing him to walk doesn't not free up any cap space. The Warriors have already taken in over $2B in revenue (yes that is BILLION!) from the new arena in the form of tickets, suites, and sponsorships.......the luxury tax and repeater tax is way behind the curve when it comes to this organization.
I think everyone around here realizes that.

Obviously, GSW has played the luxury/cap in the past extremely well. Betting a billion dollars on a 32yr old Durant to recover from a torn Achilles would be a shitty arb of it for future years. I'd expect KD to take the 1yr GSW option or sign the max elsewhere, but I'll be cheering for him to get a GSW max deal.
 

cheech13

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Maybe this has been stated somewhere else in the thread, but from what I've read on twitter Klay and KD will cost somewhere between $100 and $150MM in salary and luxury tax next year and neither is likely to contribute much, if anything. It's not even a lock that they'd make the playoffs given how shallow the bench is and how few resources they have to add talent. Is it really the best decision to run it all back again? Nate Jones on twitter talked about a potential pivot, signing one of KD/KLay, letting the other walk and trading Draymond and Iggy this summer for future assets. Tough decisions for Bob Myers.
 

lovegtm

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Maybe this has been stated somewhere else in the thread, but from what I've read on twitter Klay and KD will cost somewhere between $100 and $150MM in salary and luxury tax next year and neither is likely to contribute much, if anything. It's not even a lock that they'd make the playoffs given how shallow the bench is and how few resources they have to add talent. Is it really the best decision to run it all back again? Nate Jones on twitter talked about a potential pivot, signing one of KD/KLay, letting the other walk and trading Draymond and Iggy this summer for future assets. Tough decisions for Bob Myers.
I'm getting a slight schadenboner thinking back to the "light years ahead" talk. It's easy to talk big when KD signs with your team due to good planning and a salary cap quirk, a lot harder when you're faced with injuries and cap decisions. There's definitely some karma coming back at GSW for that hubris now.
 

DJnVa

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Well, there was an article posted yesterday where Grousbeck said Ainge and the FO were being very creative with some ideas. Interested to see where he goes.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Well, we're into the post-AD era and 99.9% certain the post Kyrie era as well.

So, what's next? I'm bummed, because I really wanted to see a shot with AD. But I get why it wasn't worth it to Ainge, too.

So now I'm curious---what's the play? Interested to see....
 

BigSoxFan

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Well, we're into the post-AD era and 99.9% certain the post Kyrie era as well.

So, what's next? I'm bummed, because I really wanted to see a shot with AD. But I get why it wasn't worth it to Ainge, too.

So now I'm curious---what's the play? Interested to see....
I’d love to pair the St. Louis boys together and get Beal.
 

Gash Prex

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I really think this is the best outcome for the franchise - I think wasting talent like Tatum and Brown for a 1 year rental of a player that clearly did not want to be here was extremely risky - and I’m glad Danny did as well. To act like Hayward/Horford/Tatum is not a solid, playoff team is crazy. If Tatum can take the next step, they have a great shot at ECF - frankly, the team (especially the young players) played better without Kyrie.

They took a shot with Kyrie and Hayward and it didn’t work - but they are not a lottery team rebuilding. They are a young, very talented team. Hayward is a wildcard now.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I really think this is the best outcome for the franchise - I think wasting talent like Tatum and Brown for a 1 year rental of a player that clearly did not want to be here was extremely risky - and I’m glad Danny did as well. To act like Hayward/Horford/Tatum is not a solid, playoff team is crazy. If Tatum can take the next step, they have a great shot at ECF - frankly, the team (especially the young players) played better without Kyrie.

They took a shot with Kyrie and Hayward and it didn’t work - but they are not a lottery team rebuilding. They are a young, very talented team. Hayward is a wildcard now.
A Hayward/Horford/Tatum/Brown/Smart team may be fun but they aren't likely to go to the ECF. I think you expect a six to eight seed with a few slot upside if Hayward can retrace some more of what he lost, if either/both of the Js improve and Horford doesn't fall off. That squad may win a playoff series but two would be asking a lot - there is a definite lack of volume scoring in that group.

If Horford is gone and the C's just go with what they've got, there is a chance that they miss the playoffs.

Of course, there are lots of things that can happen between now and next season. However I really do wonder how fans will react to a middling but likable team. We kind of forget what its like to root for teams that really have no hope of doing much in the postseason.
 

thehitcat

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However I really do wonder how fans will react to a middling but likable team. We kind of forget what its like to root for teams that really have no hope of doing much in the postseason.
The Isaiah Thomas Celtics were just two off seasons ago. They weren't going anywhere even with the King in the Fourth and they were a ton of fun to root for and had the Garden rocking nearly every home game.
 

DJnVa

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The Isaiah Thomas Celtics were just two off seasons ago. They weren't going anywhere even with the King in the Fourth and they were a ton of fun to root for and had the Garden rocking nearly every home game.
Well, at least there won't be any drama next year--no will he/won't he with AD and no Kyrie leadership drama. Just hoops. Could be refreshing.
 

luckiestman

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They have him for two more years and have nothing else to trade to add pieces around him. That Wall contract is a real franchise killer.

I love Brad Beal, so if you’re saying there is a chance, I’ll just go with that.
 

nighthob

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The rumors last year were that everything was potentially for sale on Washington’s end as they were looking to set up for a rebuild post-Wall injury. So Beal could possibly had. It would be easiest if the Nets would agree to a sign & trade, but the incestuous relationship between the Nets and ROC Nation makes that a non-starter.
 

DJnVa

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Okay---where's the Kyrie/Rozier replacement coming from?

Any chance it is Rozier? Would we trust a rookie there? Conley?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Wiz are rumored to be seeking Masai, and he won’t be afraid to blow it up. But I think he’ll be smart enough to extract a real cost for Beal too
 

Sprowl

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A Hayward/Horford/Tatum/Brown/Smart team may be fun but they aren't likely to go to the ECF. I think you expect a six to eight seed with a few slot upside if Hayward can retrace some more of what he lost, if either/both of the Js improve and Horford doesn't fall off. That squad may win a playoff series but two would be asking a lot - there is a definite lack of volume scoring in that group.

If Horford is gone and the C's just go with what they've got, there is a chance that they miss the playoffs.

Of course, there are lots of things that can happen between now and next season. However I really do wonder how fans will react to a middling but likable team. We kind of forget what its like to root for teams that really have no hope of doing much in the postseason.
A Horford/Tatum/Brown/Smart team already went to the ECF in 2018. Three out of the four will have improved with age, and Hayward is an asset that 2018 didn't have.

If Horford goes, the team will do fine in the regular season by virtue of youth, energy and gradually maturing talent. Young teams are built for an 82-game season while all the top tier are coasting, and the Celtics will most definitely be a young team again. They will certainly make the playoffs and probably scratch through to the second round. They won't be real contenders for several years to come, however, and that prospect hinges on the development of Tatum, Brown and the Memphis pick.

I'm guessing the Celtics re-sign Rozier and sign Rubio to play pass-first point guard. Ainge will have an abundance of mid-level contracts to put together, should he see another Irving-like star come on the trade market. In the meantime, however, AD's refusal leaves us licking our wounds.
 

Cellar-Door

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My guess is that the Irving/Rozier replacement is Rozier.
I'm not so sure, I think some team that strikes out makes him a ridiculous offer. Ricky Rubio as the bench PG makes some sense, Beverley and Collison are other possible MLE guys at the position. Satoransky might be cheaper.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The Isaiah Thomas Celtics were just two off seasons ago. They weren't going anywhere even with the King in the Fourth and they were a ton of fun to root for and had the Garden rocking nearly every home game.
The IT4 seasons came after a rebuild...the Celtics were amongst the favorites to come out of the East the past two seasons. Totally different dynamic and trajectory.
 
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nighthob

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I'm not so sure, I think some team that strikes out makes him a ridiculous offer. Ricky Rubio as the bench PG makes some sense, Beverley and Collison are other possible MLE guys at the position. Satoransky might be cheaper.
A sign & trade is certainly a possibility. Kygone means that someone’s going to have to make a yuuuuge offer to get Boston to balk. And offering Terry Rozier 4/80 is how you go from GM to writing for Yahoo Sports.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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A Horford/Tatum/Brown/Smart team already went to the ECF in 2018. Three out of the four will have improved with age, and Hayward is an asset that 2018 didn't have.

If Horford goes, the team will do fine in the regular season by virtue of youth, energy and gradually maturing talent. Young teams are built for an 82-game season while all the top tier are coasting, and the Celtics will most definitely be a young team again. They will certainly make the playoffs and probably scratch through to the second round. They won't be real contenders for several years to come, however, and that prospect hinges on the development of Tatum, Brown and the Memphis pick.

I'm guessing the Celtics re-sign Rozier and sign Rubio to play pass-first point guard. Ainge will have an abundance of mid-level contracts to put together, should he see another Irving-like star come on the trade market. In the meantime, however, AD's refusal leaves us licking our wounds.
Once again, the EC in '17-18 was wide open after the Cavs and the Celtics got some favorable draws (a Wizards team that was injured and not well constructed and a Bucks team with a not yet fully weaponized Giannis). I would throw out that result in looking forward as other teams in the conference have improved. The Nets and Atlanta come to mind as teams that look to be much better next year, especially if the rumors about Irving to Brooklyn are true.

YRMV but I would not put the Celtics as certain to make the playoffs if Horford leaves and Boston does nothing to replace some of Irving's scoring. Rubio can't shoot so he isn't going to do much for the Celtics putting the ball in the basket.

Here is one thought that comes to mind - if Ainge is bargain basement hunting for a flawed player who can, in theory, shoot but is a huge liability on defense, there is probably one to had cheaply. But as others have correctly pointed out here, that player may not be up to competing in an NBA game any more physically. I still expect there to be some rumors around a reunion of sorts...
 
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Sprowl

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Once again, the EC in '17-18 was wide open after the Cavs and the Celtics got some favorable draws (a Wizards team that was injured and not well constructed and a Bucks team with a not yet fully weaponized Giannis). I would throw out that result in looking forward as other teams in the conference have improved. The Nets and Atlanta come to mind as teams that look to be much better next year, especially if the rumors about Irving to Brooklyn are true.

YRMV but I would not put the Celtics as certain to make the playoffs if Horford leaves and Boston does nothing to replace some of Irving's scoring. Rubio can't shoot so he isn't going to do much for the Celtics putting the ball in the basket.

Here is one thought that comes to mind - if Ainge is bargain basement hunting for a flawed player who can, in theory, shoot but is a huge liability on defense, there is probably one to had cheaply. But as others have correctly pointed out here, that player may not be up to competing in an NBA game any more physically. I still expect there to be some rumors around a reunion of sorts...
Izayer won't be expensive, to be sure, but Ainge is not usually one to seek out a crowd-pleasing signing. I hope he doesn't start now, because Stevens' defensive schemes will work much better without going 4-against-5.

I am not worried about finding Celtics to shoot. Tatum, Hayward, Brown and (probably) Rozier can certainly chuck it, and would probably love the opportunity. If the defense is effective, the offense will follow (at least in the regular season).

I've heard the arguments for a strengthening Eastern Conference, but I'm not convinced that it is an irreversible trend. Philadelphia may lose Butler (and will probably sign Harris, which may be worse) and Toronto will probably lose Leonard. Boston doesn't have to be better than Milwaukee or Philadelphia to make the playoffs -- they just have to beat out Miami, Orlando, Detroit and perhaps Brooklyn or Indiana. In the East it is harder to miss the playoffs than to make them, and that bar hasn't gotten any higher.
 

mcpickl

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A Horford/Tatum/Brown/Smart team already went to the ECF in 2018. Three out of the four will have improved with age, and Hayward is an asset that 2018 didn't have.

If Horford goes, the team will do fine in the regular season by virtue of youth, energy and gradually maturing talent. Young teams are built for an 82-game season while all the top tier are coasting, and the Celtics will most definitely be a young team again. They will certainly make the playoffs and probably scratch through to the second round. They won't be real contenders for several years to come, however, and that prospect hinges on the development of Tatum, Brown and the Memphis pick.

I'm guessing the Celtics re-sign Rozier and sign Rubio to play pass-first point guard. Ainge will have an abundance of mid-level contracts to put together, should he see another Irving-like star come on the trade market. In the meantime, however, AD's refusal leaves us licking our wounds.
I would bet the house against this.

Horford is really good at basketball and is the key to the Celtics defense.

I think they'd scratch to make the playoffs, and if they made it they'd get walloped by the higher seed they'd play in the first round.
 

Sprowl

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I would bet the house against this.

Horford is really good at basketball and is the key to the Celtics defense.

I think they'd scratch to make the playoffs, and if they made it they'd get walloped by the higher seed they'd play in the first round.
I agree that Horford is pretty much the Celtics' only multi-talented big man, and his loss would handicap the team's defense and passing. Still, making the playoffs in the East is a very low bar. Maybe we'll set up a Jimmy Funder for this once Al Horford has made his call.
 

nighthob

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I would bet the house against this.

Horford is really good at basketball and is the key to the Celtics defense.

I think they'd scratch to make the playoffs, and if they made it they'd get walloped by the higher seed they'd play in the first round.
In general I agree, the one situation where I could see it happening is with Houston given the Capela rumors floating around. With Golden State’s losses I could see Houston gambling on the down year to strike. Capela aligns better, age-wise, with the rest of the roster.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Izayer won't be expensive, to be sure, but Ainge is not usually one to seek out a crowd-pleasing signing. I hope he doesn't start now, because Stevens' defensive schemes will work much better without going 4-against-5.

I am not worried about finding Celtics to shoot. Tatum, Hayward, Brown and (probably) Rozier can certainly chuck it, and would probably love the opportunity. If the defense is effective, the offense will follow (at least in the regular season).

I've heard the arguments for a strengthening Eastern Conference, but I'm not convinced that it is an irreversible trend. Philadelphia may lose Butler (and will probably sign Harris, which may be worse) and Toronto will probably lose Leonard. Boston doesn't have to be better than Milwaukee or Philadelphia to make the playoffs -- they just have to beat out Miami, Orlando, Detroit and perhaps Brooklyn or Indiana. In the East it is harder to miss the playoffs than to make them, and that bar hasn't gotten any higher.
Tatum can shoot but he needs to show he can do so at volume now. Brown shot well the second half of the year but its unclear whether his 3p% post-ASB is sustainable or not. There are questions about not only whether Hayward's last season in Utah was an outlier but also if his pre-injury athleticism will ever return. Rozier is a chucker for sure but not very efficient.

There is also the wrinkle of not playing off/around a guy who creates huge gravity on offense - without Irving around, defenses have a myriad of options in terms of defending the Celtics. Tatum has struggled with finishing around the rim and neither he nor Brown have shown the ability to carry the load offensively to date (that could obviously change going forward). And I suspect most Celtics fans don't want Rozier trying to be the lead scorer on his team - something he has shown the willingness but clearly not the ability to do thus far. Hayward is good as a third or fourth option in his late '18-19 season state but he wasn't able to consistently, if at all, generate his own shot.

This may well be a more likable/fun team to root for but they are losing a ton of something that was already in short supply this past season in elite scoring.

We can create scenarios where Boston replaces it but the reality is that players like Irving, Curry, Harden, Lillard etc get so much run despite being limited defensively because what they bring to the table is in very scarce in the NBA. They can create space out of nothing and then use to make the opposition pay with points. And in so doing, they create more room for their teammates to get looks. Remove those guys and even their best running mates will struggle to do things that normally look easy for them.
 
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Light-Tower-Power

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Is there any harm in bringing IT4 back in the Shane Larkin role? He’s probably cooked but on the off chance he can regain some form as a bench scorer it might be worth a look. It’d also be a load of fun which this fan base desperately needs after this season.
 

Captaincoop

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Is there any harm in bringing IT4 back in the Shane Larkin role? He’s probably cooked but on the off chance he can regain some form as a bench scorer it might be worth a look. It’d also be a load of fun which this fan base desperately needs after this season.
No way. First, he's past cooked. But even if he weren't, he is not the type to accept a limited role with a team that desperately needs to get its chemistry back on track.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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A Hayward/Horford/Tatum/Brown/Smart team may be fun but they aren't likely to go to the ECF. I think you expect a six to eight seed with a few slot upside if Hayward can retrace some more of what he lost, if either/both of the Js improve and Horford doesn't fall off. That squad may win a playoff series but two would be asking a lot - there is a definite lack of volume scoring in that group.

If Horford is gone and the C's just go with what they've got, there is a chance that they miss the playoffs.

Of course, there are lots of things that can happen between now and next season. However I really do wonder how fans will react to a middling but likable team. We kind of forget what its like to root for teams that really have no hope of doing much in the postseason.
I know you've been beating this drum but if Al resigns, there is no way, barring injuries, that the Cs are an 8 seed. Frankly, I'd take the Cs roster over IND even before the draft.

I agree that the EC 2018 playoff teams weren't great but the Cs still bet two teams and almost beat another. I'd put the Cs as a 3-6 seed, with the caveat that if they ended up as a 3 seed, that means some player or players have made a leap.
 

BigSoxFan

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Is there any harm in bringing IT4 back in the Shane Larkin role? He’s probably cooked but on the off chance he can regain some form as a bench scorer it might be worth a look. It’d also be a load of fun which this fan base desperately needs after this season.
No interest in IT4 but I would absolutely take Rondo back.
 

BigSoxFan

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I’d be mildly surprised if we don’t see Rozier back at around 4/48.
Agreed. Unless there is a surprise trade for Conley or something, bringing Rozier back on a Smart type deal seems reasonable for both sides. Rozier gets his starting role and Celtics keep their asset.

Horford
Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Rozier

That’s a good starting 5 and you’d have Smart and Baynes, 2 known quantities coming off the bench. Then, you’ve got potential defensive contributors in Semi and Time Lord and you hopefully add some scoring/shooting using the picks.
 

jmanny24

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I am admittedly completely clueless when it comes to the cap and things. Would it be possible to keep Horford, sign Rubio, deal for Capela, jettison Rozier somewhere in a S&T, and try and deal for #4 (if NO really wants to deal it) with #14/#20/future picks,etc. and draft White or Garland? I'm probably way off but had to ask.
 

Cellar-Door

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I am admittedly completely clueless when it comes to the cap and things. Would it be possible to keep Horford, sign Rubio, deal for Capela, jettison Rozier somewhere in a S&T, and try and deal for #4 (if NO really wants to deal it) with #14/#20/future picks,etc. and draft White or Garland? I'm probably way off but had to ask.
Hypothetically....sure
Horford could pick up his option, or he could opt out and re-sign to a longer deal
Rubio.... if he's willing to take a deal that fits into the MLE he could be signed
Capela... not sure where the salary match comes from, but if you can match salary sure
#4- I doubt that's what NO is looking for, but sure.

So under the rules... sure no problem, in terms of reasonableness the last two are looking pretty unlikely.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t get what we’d be giving up for Capela. Time Lord would surely be in deal since he’s a raw Capela. But how are the salaries getting matched?
 

jmanny24

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Hypothetically....sure
Horford could pick up his option, or he could opt out and re-sign to a longer deal
Rubio.... if he's willing to take a deal that fits into the MLE he could be signed
Capela... not sure where the salary match comes from, but if you can match salary sure
#4- I doubt that's what NO is looking for, but sure.

So under the rules... sure no problem, in terms of reasonableness the last two are looking pretty unlikely.
Thanks for the reply, I get the unreasonableness of it. The cap is so convoluted to me I'm not sure I'll ever get it. But it is good to know there are some avenues they can take. I like the idea of getting White/Garland to go with a Rubio type and use #22 on a guy like Nic Claxton/Okpala.
 

lexrageorge

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I don’t get what we’d be giving up for Capela. Time Lord would surely be in deal since he’s a raw Capela. But how are the salaries getting matched?
A sign-and-trade of Kyrie would give them the necessary trade exception to fit Capela.

Baynes, Yabu, Williams and their 3 draft picks may do it, but this starts gets into the rather bizarre corners of the salary cap, so don't quote me on it.
 

Cellar-Door

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A sign-and-trade of Kyrie would give them the necessary trade exception to fit Capela.

Baynes, Yabu, Williams and their 3 draft picks may do it, but this starts gets into the rather bizarre corners of the salary cap, so don't quote me on it.
A S&T isn't happening, as it hard caps the Celtics

The latter might work, but would be tough since they'd have to make all the picks, sign them, then hold them on the roster for 30 days, means basically passing on FA, sand ending up with 5 empty roster spots coming up on camp time, which would be brutal.
 

lexrageorge

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A S&T isn't happening, as it hard caps the Celtics

The latter might work, but would be tough since they'd have to make all the picks, sign them, then hold them on the roster for 30 days, means basically passing on FA, sand ending up with 5 empty roster spots coming up on camp time, which would be brutal.
They can have up to 20 players on the roster during the offseason, so I think they could still use their exceptions to sign the necessary free agents. But it would be tough and a bit strange for Houston to take that deal as well.
 

DJnVa

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I don’t get what we’d be giving up for Capela. Time Lord would surely be in deal since he’s a raw Capela. But how are the salaries getting matched?
Wasn't there talk of Horford in the deal?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I don't get the Capela talk at all. This is not to say that Clint Capela isn't a good player - in the right system, like he has in Houston, he can be very effective. But he is surrounded by good shooting which gives him a lot of room to roam on PnRs etc. He would not have that sort of shooting in Boston unless Ainge is really going to blow up the roster this summer. He cannot shoot away from the post so he does nothing to bolster the Celtics offense.

As for defense, Capela is ok but not great - he isn't an elite shot blocker and he often gets targeted for screens by opposing teams. If the C's are going with the "play the kids" approach, I would prefer to see what TimeLord has vs bringing in a more highly paid veteran who has a fairly limited skill set.
 
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