Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al

benhogan

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2018/2019 Tobias Harris is basically 2016/2017 Gordon Hayward. Kind of creepy actually. Same age, simialr ppg, simialr 3pt and free throw, Hatyward with more assists, harris with more rebounds.

But yes, close to zero may be an overstatament, but the chances are substantially greater that he continues to improve but doesn't get back to his 26 year old all star self and he opts in to his deal than he sees a 4/110 offer
Offensive counting numbers really doesn't do it for me. I like to use BPM, VORP, ON/OFF, ORtg/DRtg per 100 for a quick comp. YMMV

And if I use that for 2016/17 Hayward vs. any of Tobias Harris 7 seasons there is no comparison. In fact, Gordon has had 4 seasons of higher VORP than Tobias very best season (and a 5th equal). So if Gordon is healthy and resembles himself I want him on my team more than Tobias Harris.


 

lovegtm

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2018/2019 Tobias Harris is basically 2016/2017 Gordon Hayward. Kind of creepy actually. Same age, simialr ppg, simialr 3pt and free throw, Hatyward with more assists, harris with more rebounds.

But yes, close to zero may be an overstatament, but the chances are substantially greater that he continues to improve but doesn't get back to his 26 year old all star self and he opts in to his deal than he sees a 4/110 offer
Yeah, although there’s a reason Hayward was considered an FA coup for the Celtics, and Harris is considered a slight overpay Philly was forced into. Slash lines really don’t tell you tons in the NBA.

Anyway I agree that it’s more likely Hayward opts in than that he doesn’t. However, if we limit our basketball discussion to things that are over 50% to happen, we quite literally can’t discuss the championship odds for a single team this year. Contingency scenarios in the 5%+ range are interesting to hypothesize and plan for.
 

the moops

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The Harris contract is a weird one in that there was no way that PHI could not sign him. After making the trade and then losing Butler to MIA, letting Harris sign elsewhere was not an option
 

benhogan

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The Harris contract is a weird one in that there was no way that PHI could not sign him. After making the trade and then losing Butler to MIA, letting Harris sign elsewhere was not an option
That's fair.

I was really hoping Durant would snub the Nets and they would panic and sign local kid Tobias Harris. Irving/Harris pairing would have been hilarious when it struggled to make the playoffs. BUT him ending up on Philly for 5 seasons at $36MM/yr is good enough.

It was a hideous trade by Brand (which I liked for Philly at first brush :eek:, until I started actually looking at his advanced metrics). There's a reason he has been traded 5x. He's a bad defensive player. Credit to him for getting that contract, but if he doesn't shoot over 40% on his 3s they'll hate that overpay for 5 seasons.
 
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Smokey Joe

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The Harris contract is a weird one in that there was no way that PHI could not sign him. After making the trade and then losing Butler to MIA, letting Harris sign elsewhere was not an option
This is one of those weirdnesses about the Philly off-season. If you are going all-in, you sign Al Horford, resign Butler and let Harris go. If you are building for the long term, you sign Harris, pass on AL and let Butler go. The fact that they did both simultaneously leaves me scratching my head. I can only assume that it is a culture move. (or what's more likely, nobody is thinking things through.)
 

lovegtm

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This is one of those weirdnesses about the Philly off-season. If you are going all-in, you sign Al Horford, resign Butler and let Harris go. If you are building for the long term, you sign Harris, pass on AL and let Butler go. The fact that they did both simultaneously leaves me scratching my head. I can only assume that it is a culture move. (or what's more likely, nobody is thinking things through.)
If they like Al better than Butler, I can sort of see how it makes sense. They had to get someone in that salary slot, since they’ll lose it next year when Simmons’ contract hits. If Al is a bad fit or declines, they can flip another good player into his slot by trading away lots of future assets.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If they like Al better than Butler, I can sort of see how it makes sense. They had to get someone in that salary slot, since they’ll lose it next year when Simmons’ contract hits. If Al is a bad fit or declines, they can flip another good player into his slot by trading away lots of future assets.
This does make sense even though the Horford fit doesn’t really compute. You are committing to Simmons and want the ball in his hands so Butler is out but you need to maintain his salary slot......Horford is a quality player that you can still move down the road. It makes more long-term sense than it does short term as the Sixers can still maneuver with Horford and Harris’ contracts without having to deal with all the “extra” that Butler brings with him.
 

Devizier

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Have to think “other” is a reason why the Lakers showed apparently no interest in Butler. He’s not Kawhi but he would have surely been a fit.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If they like Al better than Butler, I can sort of see how it makes sense. They had to get someone in that salary slot, since they’ll lose it next year when Simmons’ contract hits. If Al is a bad fit or declines, they can flip another good player into his slot by trading away lots of future assets.
I thought Butler turned PHI down.

Once Harris accepted his max offer, as you pointed out, PHI needed to pivot to save the salary space. Horford was as good as they were going to get. Kind of a no-brainer to me.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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If they like Al better than Butler, I can sort of see how it makes sense. They had to get someone in that salary slot, since they’ll lose it next year when Simmons’ contract hits. If Al is a bad fit or declines, they can flip another good player into his slot by trading away lots of future assets.
Plus they got Josh Richardson in the Butler sign-and-trade, so it was Horford and J-Rich in place of Butler.
 

Smokey Joe

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I thought Butler turned PHI down.

Once Harris accepted his max offer, as you pointed out, PHI needed to pivot to save the salary space. Horford was as good as they were going to get. Kind of a no-brainer to me.
If Butler turned Philly down then it is clear that being top dog is more important to him then winning. And that may be the case. But OTOH, that was reported by exactly one person (Haberstroh) and it's really hard to tell the truth from the spin. And you can trade Butler just as easily as Horford or Harris.
 

the moops

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PHI is a much better team with Horford + Richardson than just having Butler, though. I don't know, I really like this PHI team. Yeah, in the playoffs when teams can gameplan about howw to attack their bigs, they may struggle a bit, but I think their length and size is just incredible, and likely have just enough shooting (maybe). I think they roll through the regular season with this crew
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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If Butler turned Philly down then it is clear that being top dog is more important to him then winning. And that may be the case. But OTOH, that was reported by exactly one person (Haberstroh) and it's really hard to tell the truth from the spin. And you can trade Butler just as easily as Horford or Harris.
Two actually. Kyle Neubeck of PhillyVoice was told PHI offered Bitler the max:
.

At any rate we'll never know whether or how hard PHI pushed for Butler resigning but I think the team next year would have been better with Butler as opposed to Horford/Richardson unless chemistry was an issue (and I hadn't heard anything about that).
 

Smokey Joe

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You can buy it at a hunting place. He isn’t going to trap a coyote.
You’re right! I should have checked Amazon. I am especially taken by the “Leg-Up” brand. Which raises the question “Where do they get it?”. Are there coyote farms like dairy farms where the herds of coyotes are driven into the fields every morning and come home at night to be hooked up to machines like milking machines that relieve them of this precious liquid? Or is it like most things in this country where they say in the fine print “That’s just the name of the product. It’s actually water salt sugar natural flavors artificial colors and Sodium Benzoate as a preservative.” Or they get it from China...or the Phoenix hockey team.
 

Was (Not Wasdin)

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Gordon doesn't even have to be that player to get 3yrs for $100MM in his 30, 31, 32yr old seasons.

Who's on the market next offseason?

Placing near 0% odds on opting out is silly and I'm more than happy to extend 100-1 odds for charity to you.

This is kind of where I am. Even a return to 75%? 80% pre injury form will likely generate some buzz around the league.

To me, the question is what does the number have to get to for him to opt out (acknowledging it is all guesswork, because, you know, no one is supposed to be talking during the season). Does the buzz that someone is willing to go 3yr/75 million get him to opt out?
 

NomarsFool

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This is kind of where I am. Even a return to 75%? 80% pre injury form will likely generate some buzz around the league.

To me, the question is what does the number have to get to for him to opt out (acknowledging it is all guesswork, because, you know, no one is supposed to be talking during the season). Does the buzz that someone is willing to go 3yr/75 million get him to opt out?
If Hayward regains his Utah form next season, declines his player option and then signs somewhere else - man, that would sting.
 

DrewDawg

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Big John

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Do you see them doing better than that? Maybe they win a couple more games in the second round but I don't see this team as an ECF team. Don't get me wrong, I'd be ecstatic to be proven incorrect.
How can anyone know one way or another at this point? Two key components of last year's team have been replaced. Maybe the chemistry is better, maybe not. Maybe Tatum and Brown take the next step and Hayward returns to form-- but maybe not. The composition of other teams has also changed significantly. I'd like to watch at least a handful of games before annointing this team as a contender or branding it as an also-ran.
 

Sprowl

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Predictions for the Celtics' regular season win total in 2019-2020 have been given their own thread:

 

Revkeith

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There’s multiple reports out there that Recep Erdogan died of a heart attack. Not sure about Turkish line of succession, but it seems like that might improve Enes Kanters odds of being able to travel to Toronto.
 

Big John

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It's around 7:30 pm in Ankara now and it's a little strange that there has been no official denial of the reports. Maybe everyone is on vacation?
 

Kliq

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I'd be willing to take a flier on Bender; he's only 21 and I'd imagine Phoenix isn't the best place for a young guy to develop and adapt to the NBA.
 

DannyDarwinism

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Davin Griffin confirms what was widely speculated around draft time- Zion grew over the course of the college/draft season.


I can’t post the pics now, but he was clearly shorter than RJ in the fall, and now he’s clearly taller. He also appears to be taller than Reddish too.

Basically what I’m trying to say is that a Tacko-sized Zion will soon be ruling us all.
 

Koufax

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Unless of course Taco is also growing. We'll need weather balloons to determine that, however.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Lance Stephenson signs in China for $4m while being available to return to the NBA for a stretch run and more dollars.

* Jared Sullinger re-upped in China. He was paid $1.4m last season so likely similar this coming year.

* Jonas Jerebko likely has already signed with team in Russia as that team already has a YouTube page up welcoming him in.
 
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lovegtm

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* Lance Stephenson signs in China for $4m while being available to return to the NBA for a stretch run and more dollars.

* Jared Sullinger re-upped in China. He was paid $1.4m last season so likely similar this coming year.

* Jonas Jerebko likely has already signed with team in Russia as that team already has a YouTube page up welcoming him in.
You mean they’re not waiting around to see whether they can fight it out with Grant Williams for the 15th spot????
/s

Where in Russia did Jerebko sign?
 

Big John

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From the Lithuanian basketball writer Donatas Urbonas via Hoopshype: "Jonas Jerebko is heading to Europe after 9 NBA seasons. Jerebko is close to sign with Khimki Moscow Region, I was told. "
 

RedOctober3829

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deep inside Guido territory
Christmas Day Games
Celtics at Raptors
Bucks at 76ers
Rockets at Warriors
Clippers vs. Lakers
Pelicans at Nuggets

Kyrie makes his return to the Garden the night before Thanksgiving(November 27th.) I'd say the Garden will be lubed up.
 

ifmanis5

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From Shams:
Sources: Notable superstar return games on 2019-20 NBA schedule:
Clippers’ Kawhi Leonard at Toronto: Dec. 11
Lakers‘ Anthony Davis at New Orleans: Nov. 27
Nets‘ Kyrie Irving at Boston: Nov. 27
Rockets’ Russell Westbrook at Oklahoma City: Jan. 9.
 

luckiestman

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Christmas Day Games
Celtics at Raptors
Bucks at 76ers
Rockets at Warriors
Clippers vs. Lakers
Pelicans at Nuggets

Kyrie makes his return to the Garden the night before Thanksgiving(November 27th.) I'd say the Garden will be lubed up.

Odds he’s managing loads that day?