Offseason Thread - Betty when you call me, you can call me Al

benhogan

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Nice summary of the offseason Celtic Cap Sheet moves.

Did waiving Yabu and extending his contract help with the Poirier signing (2yrs @ $4.65MM) & 4yr deal w/ Carsen Edwards?


the Celtics have about $1.1 million in remaining cap space. They could use that space to sign a rookie for greater than the league minimum allows (and for more than the two years the Minimum Exception allows for). Once that cap space is spent, Boston can then complete the Kanter, Theis and Wanamaker signings as an “over the cap” team.

 

benhogan

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Didn't see this anywhere else so apologies if it's a repeat, but Boston has rescinded Theis's qualifying offer and made a few other moves to free up cap space.

Can the MaMo stuff be split out? It's a great topic but has been dominating this thread over the last 24 hours.
right. The Theis move is procedural/timing. Daniel is on his way (part of Dec.15 team filler: Kanter, Poirier & Theis - unless they play their way off that group)

The Celtic's have $1.1MM to use to get to the cap. Maybe Tacko or Waters or another rookie FA added to the 15 on a similar deal as Edwards? After they reach that cap they will formally add Wanamaker, Theis and Kanter.

So while mcpickl speculated they'd try to jam Yabu into the Charlotte deal, at the end of day Celtics found a clever way to unload the 15th man (Yabu waive/extend), lengthen control of Edwards on the cheap, upgrade the roster and add a better 2nd rounder from Charlotte.
 
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Big John

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It's interesting how Boston has organized the center position with so many veteran guys still available: Noah, Zaza, Monroe, Bogut, Nene, Gortat, Koufos, Jason Smith, Pau Gasol. Motiejunas,

I'm not saying the Celtics' approach is wrong, just interesting.
 

JakeRae

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Yeah, quite a few players in the NBA end up with MLEs or fairly low contracts. Somebody like Morris could end up making $5 million/year and have to play for 5 years to make up the money he could have had for 2. On the other hand, maybe he'll get lucky and put up the numbers and some greater fool will give him a big payday.

Remember, MaMo has a fairly high opinion of his abilities (as I'm sure >90% of NBA players do). I wouldn't put this all on Klutch (absent other evidence). Heck if Terry Rozier is getting the money he got, it wouldn't surprise me if MaMo was thinking he should be getting similar or more than that.
The MLE is close to $10M/season and is probably about the median expectation for Morris following his 1 year deal with the Knicks. His expected value hit in losing the Clippers deal is real but not that big. Where he really got killed is in losing the opportunity to play for a contender on a very good financial deal. He now may be stuck next year deciding between playing for a contender or getting paid when he could’ve had both.
 

lovegtm

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It's interesting how Boston has organized the center position with so many veteran guys still available: Noah, Zaza, Monroe, Bogut, Nene, Gortat, Koufos, Jason Smith, Pau Gasol. Motiejunas,

I'm not saying the Celtics' approach is wrong, just interesting.
Yeah, it is interesting. My guess, when you look at who’s left, is that the Celtics didn’t like anyone as a long-term solution at their budget. Once they decided that, they had to make tradeoffs.

It appears they thought that the most important thing was to keep the offense humming, especially for Tatum and Brown’s development. At that point, you can make the case that Kanter was the best guy out there, particularly if he adds a 3.

Then, if they like what they’re seeing out of the offense, they’d presumably make a move for another guy who’s more accomplished and expensive (once they have salaries to match again after Dec. 15)
 

lovegtm

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The MLE is close to $10M/season and is probably about the median expectation for Morris following his 1 year deal with the Knicks. His expected value hit in losing the Clippers deal is real but not that big. Where he really got killed is in losing the opportunity to play for a contender on a very good financial deal. He now may be stuck next year deciding between playing for a contender or getting paid when he could’ve had both.
Agree re playing for a contender, but getting lower EV and being exposed to the bad downside scenarios is an awful outcome, even speaking purely financially.
 

Jimbodandy

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Yeah, it is interesting. My guess, when you look at who’s left, is that the Celtics didn’t like anyone as a long-term solution at their budget. Once they decided that, they had to make tradeoffs.

It appears they thought that the most important thing was to keep the offense humming, especially for Tatum and Brown’s development. At that point, you can make the case that Kanter was the best guy out there, particularly if he adds a 3.

Then, if they like what they’re seeing out of the offense, they’d presumably make a move for another guy who’s more accomplished and expensive (once they have salaries to match again after Dec. 15)
I agree with this 100%. They're doing the Billy Beane thing here. Take a third of the season to see what they have. If shit's happening, they can upgrade in December with pieces and picks. Unlikely but possible. Still have the trade deadline as well.

Plenty to figure out first.
 

lovegtm

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I agree with this 100%. They're doing the Billy Beane thing here. Take a third of the season to see what they have. If shit's happening, they can upgrade in December with pieces and picks. Unlikely but possible. Still have the trade deadline as well.

Plenty to figure out first.
Yeah, there are so many moving parts:
-how Hayward looks
-Brown/Tatum
-Smart’s shooting
-how TL looks

All of this affects whether they want to upgrade now, whether they feel they’re too deep at the wing, whether they want to pay a lot for a center, etc. It’s a lot different even than the first IT/Horford year, where a lot of the guys were (relatively) known quantities.
 

Big John

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Yes, TL and Poirier are both unknown quantities. The "book" on Poirier is that he has limited mobility on defense, but footage of him defending high p&rs is almost impossible to find. He can't be much worse than Kanter-- or for that matter Monroe or Nene.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It's interesting how Boston has organized the center position with so many veteran guys still available: Noah, Zaza, Monroe, Bogut, Nene, Gortat, Koufos, Jason Smith, Pau Gasol. Motiejunas,

I'm not saying the Celtics' approach is wrong, just interesting.
It is. Definately not how I would have done it.
 

Ale Xander

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What's a diminutive word for "Freak?"

Bucks sign bro Thanasis
 

HowBoutDemSox

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More on the Morris/Rich Paul intrigue, the latest spin is that Paul didn’t want Morris to back out of the Spurs commitment and Morris negotiated the one year deal with the Knicks on his own:
Morris’ super-agent, Rich Paul, was not involved directly in Morris breaking his verbal agreement with the Spurs, according to a source, and the Knicks and Morris worked on a new deal together. The source reports Paul preferred Morris stick to his original agreement and the two are headed toward a breakup over the incident.

Morris, who is from Philadelphia, got cold feet about playing for Gregg Popovich in San Antonio. Morris has been widely panned for backing out of an agreement with a proven winner to join the 17-65 Knicks. The Spurs had cleared cap room to sign Morris by trading Davis Bertans and restructuring DeMarre Carroll’s contract; they later pivoted and signed Trey Lyles instead.
 

djbayko

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More on the Morris/Rich Paul intrigue, the latest spin is that Paul didn’t want Morris to back out of the Spurs commitment and Morris negotiated the one year deal with the Knicks on his own:

I was kind of wondering about this possibility. Everyone's been assuming that Morris dumped Paul, but it very well could be that Paul can't be known as the agent who can't keep his word (or help his clients keep their word). This article could just be the latest spin, but it's worth considering.
 

lovegtm

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I was kind of wondering about this possibility. Everyone's been assuming that Morris dumped Paul, but it very well could be that Paul can't be known as the agent who can't keep his word (or help his clients keep their word). This article could just be the latest spin, but it's worth considering.
Likely both parts are true: Paul did shady stuff to convince Mook not to sign the Clippers deal. Then Mook (not Paul) reneged on the agreement with San Antonio when a chance came to recoup some of the money he had lost by not taking the 3/41.
 

Bunt4aTriple

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Fun piece on old friend Kendrick Perkin’s rise as an NBA analyst/talking head:
I would have liked some acknowledgement in there that some of these insiders have a shelf life. Good on Perk (he is a beast afterall), but what happens when his high profile buddies all retire? He'll either have to transition to a legitimate talking head or he's only as good as his last scoop. Otherwise, it was good.
 

InstaFace

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Just Jared has made a career out of being the celebrity-follower that celebrities know they can actually talk to about their real feelings, and he'll be both sympathetic and protective, and also convey that back out to his audience in a positively-spun fashion. Jared's a pair of safe hands* who they know is on their side, and as a result he gets interviews and scoops that make TMZ blush.

Perk is trying to be the sports equivalent, and it will be as long-lasting as his ability to give a shit about the players, genuinely listen to them, and take their side when facing the public on camera. His knowledge of today's player-base just helped him get his start, but you've also got people like Stephen A Smith who've done likewise for several player-generations. There's gotta be an MLB equivalent, I just can't think of one right now.

* It must help that he's transparently a huge geek. I happened to go to a party at his apartment once like 10 years ago (friend-of-a-friend) and not only were there no celebrities, there was a lot of DDR, board games and Wii Tennis.
 

Kliq

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Just Jared has made a career out of being the celebrity-follower that celebrities know they can actually talk to about their real feelings, and he'll be both sympathetic and protective, and also convey that back out to his audience in a positively-spun fashion. Jared's a pair of safe hands* who they know is on their side, and as a result he gets interviews and scoops that make TMZ blush.

Perk is trying to be the sports equivalent, and it will be as long-lasting as his ability to give a shit about the players, genuinely listen to them, and take their side when facing the public on camera. His knowledge of today's player-base just helped him get his start, but you've also got people like Stephen A Smith who've done likewise for several player-generations. There's gotta be an MLB equivalent, I just can't think of one right now.

* It must help that he's transparently a huge geek. I happened to go to a party at his apartment once like 10 years ago (friend-of-a-friend) and not only were there no celebrities, there was a lot of DDR, board games and Wii Tennis.
That's awesome. Perk has a ton of cred in the league right now for being an amazing teammate that everyone likes, which obviously helps him get his scoops. Yes, his generation will age out from playing, but a lot of those guys will probably go into coaching or front office roles, so he should still have some connections to the league.
 

Sam Ray Not

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Hmm, the ink's barely dry on KD's Nets contract and Steph is already sending him passive-aggressive billets doux (in the form of Hamilton lyrics, with help from adorable backup singers Riley and Ryan...)


You'll be back, time will tell
You'll remember that I served you well
Oceans rise, empires fall
We have seen each other through it all
And when push comes to shove
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

When you're gone, I'll go mad
So don't throw away this thing we had
Cuz when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love!
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Hmm, the ink's barely dry on KD's Nets contract and Steph is already sending him passive-aggressive billets doux (in the form of Hamilton lyrics, with help from adorable backup singers Riley and Ryan...)


You'll be back, time will tell
You'll remember that I served you well
Oceans rise, empires fall
We have seen each other through it all
And when push comes to shove
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

When you're gone, I'll go mad
So don't throw away this thing we had
Cuz when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love!
I mean, he is pretty much the most dorky (see the Milly Rock IG post from this week), and relatable, NBA superstar ever.
 

mikeot

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Hmm, the ink's barely dry on KD's Nets contract and Steph is already sending him passive-aggressive billets doux (in the form of Hamilton lyrics, with help from adorable backup singers Riley and Ryan...)


You'll be back, time will tell
You'll remember that I served you well
Oceans rise, empires fall
We have seen each other through it all
And when push comes to shove
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

When you're gone, I'll go mad
So don't throw away this thing we had
Cuz when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love!

It's noon on Friday, and this has already made my weekend.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Korver to Bucks. ugh
Once again, this is nothing to "ugh" over imho.

Peak Korver is a great fit with that team but the reality is that he is 38 years old, has been in decline for a while, had a poor season in '18-19 and is a huge liability on defense. My sense is that Milwaukee is considerably worse off with Korver taking some of Brogdon's minutes.
 

lovegtm

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Once again, this is nothing to "ugh" over imho.

Peak Korver is a great fit with that team but the reality is that he is 38 years old, has been in decline for a while, had a poor season in '18-19 and is a huge liability on defense. My sense is that Milwaukee is considerably worse off with Korver taking some of Brogdon's minutes.
Yeah, at this age he seems like a pretty big downgrade from what Brogdon and Mirotic were providing. Also gives a good spot to attack on offense.
 

bsj

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The ugh wasnt "OMG we are screwed" it was "A conference rival got a piece". Is it a big piece? Probably not. But its a piece they didnt have yesterday.

My "ughs" dont scream catastrophe as much as irritation
 

DannyDarwinism

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Hmm, the ink's barely dry on KD's Nets contract and Steph is already sending him passive-aggressive billets doux (in the form of Hamilton lyrics, with help from adorable backup singers Riley and Ryan...)


You'll be back, time will tell
You'll remember that I served you well
Oceans rise, empires fall
We have seen each other through it all
And when push comes to shove
I will send a fully armed battalion to remind you of my love!

When you're gone, I'll go mad
So don't throw away this thing we had
Cuz when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love!
I assume this is just a joke, but in case not: You’ll Be Back was in the medley for both my son’s first grade class and my daughter’s preschool one, at a different school. I assume this has everything to do with Ryan and Riley, and nothing at all to do with KD. Plus, I’m not sure Steph wants to play the role of King George to the Nets’ fledgling USA.

On a related note, Steph is adorkable, and Ayesha seems to.be too, so I really don’t get why she catches so much heat. Poor woman can’t catch a break from some people.
 

TripleOT

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That's awesome. Perk has a ton of cred in the league right now for being an amazing teammate that everyone likes, which obviously helps him get his scoops. Yes, his generation will age out from playing, but a lot of those guys will probably go into coaching or front office roles, so he should still have some connections to the league.
Perk has got to be better than that show ESPN puts out there to try to compete with TNT's far superior product. They've been better than past years, but still not there yet. Put him with Pierce, get rid of Beadle, and let Jalen Rose take some of the host responsibilities that Beadle had. Or just replace Chauncey with Perk
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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The ugh wasnt "OMG we are screwed" it was "A conference rival got a piece". Is it a big piece? Probably not. But its a piece they didnt have yesterday.

My "ughs" dont scream catastrophe as much as irritation
Fair enough.

From my admittedly tiny minority point of view, the teams that concern me vis a vis the Celtics are the Hawks, Magic, Cavs, Bulls and Knicks of the world rather than Milwaukee, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana. The latter teams are going to be there at the end next year but those other teams have a shot to improve enough (particularly the Hawks) to pose an obstacle two or three years down the road when the Celtics are hopefully better and the kids have had enough seasoning to potentially be very effective in their roles.

I am not even worried about Milwaukee et al because the talent gap between them and Boston at present is pretty huge and, barring major injuries, I don't see the Celtics beating them in a series, even without Korver.
 

Sam Ray Not

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I assume this is just a joke, but in case not: You’ll Be Back was in the medley for both my son’s first grade class and my daughter’s preschool one, at a different school. I assume this has everything to do with Ryan and Riley, and nothing at all to do with KD. Plus, I’m not sure Steph wants to play the role of King George to the Nets’ fledgling USA.

On a related note, Steph is adorkable, and Ayesha seems to.be too, so I really don’t get why she catches so much heat. Poor woman can’t catch a break from some people.
Ha, definitely a joke (and an excuse to post a vid featuring my favorite player and one of my favorite recent songs), though as a jilted Ws fan I do like to imagine my salty interpretation was lurking somewhere in the back of his mind even while he was being the most "adorkable" dad ever.
 

tbrown_01923

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If you see a 42-44 win team, ~6 seed, would you:
1. Want to see TL get a serious look this season?
2. See Tatum/Brown, along with Kemba, be the focal point of the offense?
3. Look to move Hayward, if healthy/producing and the team is around .500 (since he can bolt at seasons end)?
4. Work in Edwards, Grant, and Romeo at the back end of rotations?

Winning would be priority #1, but use some minutes for guys that are actually going to be here for a few more seasons. There might be some merit to this if Milwaukee, Philly and others are much better then the Celtics this season
I assume with a trade of one of the wings they would need to get a two way big back... And if Hayward isnt back to 100% they might need to trade him to just maintain the salary space.
 

the moops

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3. Look to move Hayward, if healthy/producing and the team is around .500 (since he can bolt at seasons end)?
There is close to zero percent chance that hayward turns down a 34 million player option next year. He would need to get to all-star level of playing to even have a chance at coming close at recouping that money with a long term deal somewhere
 

benhogan

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There is close to zero percent chance that hayward turns down a 34 million player option next year. He would need to get to all-star level of playing to even have a chance at coming close at recouping that money with a long term deal somewhere
Do you want to lay 100-1 odds on that for charity?

How many All-Star games have Tobias Harris played in?
How much talent is available in next years free agent class?

Predicting close to 0% odds on Gordon Hayward, two years removed from injury and a previous All-Star, accepting/declining an option a year out is a fools' errand. After watching this NBA offseason unfold, I'd be hesitant about making absolute predictions 12months in the future
 
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lovegtm

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There is close to zero percent chance that hayward turns down a 34 million player option next year. He would need to get to all-star level of playing to even have a chance at coming close at recouping that money with a long term deal somewhere
If he's Utah Hayward, he gets 4/110+ without blinking, and there's probably a 10-30% chance he regains that form. Fortunately, the Celtics get the benefit of observing him for a couple months before they have to decide on a direction to take, so I don't think the specific odds are worth arguing about much--the team will have enough information to decide what do.

Now, if he does regain his old form, and the team looks like it's more than a strong defensive big away from contention, then a lot of hard choices have to be made. They absolutely cannot afford to have him get healthy, look great, and then walk in FA for nothing because the team isn't ready to contend.
 

benhogan

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If he's Utah Hayward, he gets 4/110+ without blinking, and there's probably a 10-30% chance he regains that form. Fortunately, the Celtics get the benefit of observing him for a couple months before they have to decide on a direction to take, so I don't think the specific odds are worth arguing about much--the team will have enough information to decide what do.

Now, if he does regain his old form, and the team looks like it's more than a strong defensive big away from contention, then a lot of hard choices have to be made. They absolutely cannot afford to have him get healthy, look great, and then walk in FA for nothing because the team isn't ready to contend.
Agreed. Throw in time value (theta) & NBA unpredictability (vol) make option writing a bad business.

Gordon Hayward stuff aside, my larger point is if this team is .500ish, what kind of future development should they be doing that doesn't completely sabotage their present season?
Maybe TL does take a Mitchell Robinson leap with PT? or Kanter develops into Brook Lopez on offense? or the rookies will be ready to seriously contribute a year or two from now?
Maybe the offensive keys should be handed to the next generation of Brown, Tatum and Kemba.

Even if this Celtic team isn't on Mil/Phila level this season there are interesting things to watch for that can be done to go for it in 2020-21 and beyond.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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If he's Utah Hayward, he gets 4/110+ without blinking, and there's probably a 10-30% chance he regains that form. Fortunately, the Celtics get the benefit of observing him for a couple months before they have to decide on a direction to take, so I don't think the specific odds are worth arguing about much--the team will have enough information to decide what do.

Now, if he does regain his old form, and the team looks like it's more than a strong defensive big away from contention, then a lot of hard choices have to be made. They absolutely cannot afford to have him get healthy, look great, and then walk in FA for nothing because the team isn't ready to contend.
If Gordo is able to secure a max deal for post-injury years 31-34 with the expectation that he will be the same “26-yr old, jacked up, green light, contract-yr 1x All-Star” he was one time in Utah then I’ll guzzle a pint of Coyote urine to wash down the log of Rocco’s shit.

It’s pretty safe to say he’s going to be opting in IMHO.
 

benhogan

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If Gordo is able to secure a max deal for post-injury years 31-34 with the expectation that he will be the same “26-yr old, jacked up, green light, contract-yr 1x All-Star” he was one time in Utah then I’ll guzzle a pint of Coyote urine to wash down the log of Rocco’s shit.

It’s pretty safe to say he’s going to be opting in IMHO.
Gordon doesn't even have to be that player to get 3yrs for $100MM in his 30, 31, 32yr old seasons.

Who's on the market next offseason?

Placing near 0% odds on opting out is silly and I'm more than happy to extend 100-1 odds for charity to you.
 
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luckiestman

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If Gordo is able to secure a max deal for post-injury years 31-34 with the expectation that he will be the same “26-yr old, jacked up, green light, contract-yr 1x All-Star” he was one time in Utah then I’ll guzzle a pint of Coyote urine to wash down the log of Rocco’s shit.

It’s pretty safe to say he’s going to be opting in IMHO.
In a league that does not give a shit about PEDs and a world where 40 year Manny Pacquiao is fighting at the top of the food chain, I wouldn’t feel good about making age based declarations about 31-34 year olds.
 

benhogan

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In a league that does not give a shit about PEDs and a world where 40 year Manny Pacquiao is fighting at the top of the food chain, I wouldn’t feel good about making age based declarations about 31-34 year olds.
especially when Gordon Hayward will be 30 for most of the 2020-21 season

 
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Smokey Joe

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If Gordo is able to secure a max deal for post-injury years 31-34 with the expectation that he will be the same “26-yr old, jacked up, green light, contract-yr 1x All-Star” he was one time in Utah then I’ll guzzle a pint of Coyote urine to wash down the log of Rocco’s shit.

It’s pretty safe to say he’s going to be opting in IMHO.
Actually, watching you acquire a pint of coyote urine is more interesting then watching you drink it.
 

the moops

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Do you want to lay 100-1 odds on that for charity?

How many All-Star games have Tobias Harris played in?
How much talent is available in next years free agent class?

Predicting close to 0% odds on Gordon Hayward, two years removed from injury and a previous All-Star, accepting/declining an option a year out is a fools' errand. After watching this NBA offseason unfold, I'd be hesitant about making absolute predictions 12months in the future
2018/2019 Tobias Harris is basically 2016/2017 Gordon Hayward. Kind of creepy actually. Same age, simialr ppg, simialr 3pt and free throw, Hatyward with more assists, harris with more rebounds.

But yes, close to zero may be an overstatament, but the chances are substantially greater that he continues to improve but doesn't get back to his 26 year old all star self and he opts in to his deal than he sees a 4/110 offer