Offseason rumors

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

So as sort of a thought-experiment. . . Let's say that they don't think they're going to be a contender in 2024, or have a very low probability of such…

On a side note, I'd point out that if they think there's a chance they might be competitive, but it's a low probability, what they're saying and doing makes some amount of sense. Absent the fandom tire-fire, that is. But rightly or wrongly, people are very very bent out of shape over this, and they should have a more proactive strategy to address it. Unless they think they can ride it out and just start winning games.

This is kind of what I keep coming back to.

I’ve been saying for a while that I think Breslow (or whoever took over) was in a very tough spot. Mostly because I think Bloom did a pretty terrible job - outside of adding Mayer, Teel and Anthony, he was here for 4 years and did very little to improve the MLB, AAA or AA situations. Not to mention the fact that Mayer’s value (at least tied to prospect ranking sites) is going in the wrong direction.

If he (and now Theo) looked at the aggregate of what happened over the past 4 years and think the team is closer to the Royals than the Rangers, what would (or should) they do and say. It’s not like a fantasy team where they can just cut every player they don’t want and replace them.

Breslow couldn’t stand up there and say “80% of the roster is garbage, and I tried like hell to sell 95% of the farm system as well and nobody wanted any of it.”

I think - to his credit - Breslow has tried diplomatically saying stuff like that. His talk about not being in a position to trade future wins for current ones. Talking about the off season not going as he expected (maybe he thought there would be interest in pieces that weren’t Teel, Mayer or Anthony). Now they have Gammons “a team that isn’t as good as they (FSG) thinks” and Bill James saying it for them.

Case in point, I don’t think it’s imposible Breslow looks at the MLB team and says Wong, Abreu and Duran aren’t MLB level starters, Yoshida isn’t good enough to play LF and isn’t good enough as a bat to be a true DH (but nobody is interested in trading for him and eating more than 50% of the deal), and that in his opinion none of Pivetta, Houck, Winckowski, etc are capable starters in the AL East.

These are questions some on the board have as well.

IF he looks at the team that way - and has a budget of let’s say $LTT, what is he realistically supposed to say or do. He can’t force other teams to value Sox players more highly. He can’t force other teams to trade for Yoshida or Story and cut down the budget drastically. And, if he thinks there ARE that many holes (and if he’s right) signing Montgomery (or Snell) probably only gets them into the 78 win range and not the mid 80s necessary to even really contend for WC3.

I‘m not saying for sure he feels that way, but if he did the moves and action (inaction) from a baseball operations standpoint make a lot more sense.

 

[RedOctober3829]

He's a meat shield ala Roger Goodell. He's the public face of the Sox which means he goes out and deal with the press, tries to stay on message and absorb all of the criticisms that are meant for Henry. For all of that, he gets paid very handsomely.

I'm sure he does other shit as well, but while the Sox suck he takes the bullet for Henry, and to a lesser extent, Werner.

Evan Drellich put together an article for The Athletic outlining a few names for the next commissioner of baseball and I about spit out my coffee when Sam Kennedy's name was on that list.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Evan Drellich put together an article for The Athletic outlining a few names for the next commissioner of baseball and I about spit out my coffee when Sam Kennedy's name was on that list.

I must have missed that. Fucking Christ, that would be bad ... still better than Manfred though. At least Kennedy seems to like baseball.

 

[TomRicardo]

Evan Drellich put together an article for The Athletic outlining a few names for the next commissioner of baseball and I about spit out my coffee when Sam Kennedy's name was on that list.

Sam Kennedy is a perfect commissioner. He is a walking crash test dummy who has absolutely no scrupples going to bat for billionaires

 

[BravesField]

This article is really something. So now Devers is publicly calling out ownership on the failures this offseason.

He doesn't mention that the guy who hit in front of him (Verdugo) and the guy who hit behind him (Turner) are gone. So maybe he's a bit peeved of losing that protection in the lineup.

 

[soxhop411]

Evan Drellich put together an article for The Athletic outlining a few names for the next commissioner of baseball and I about spit out my coffee when Sam Kennedy's name was on that list.

Tom Werner ran for commissioner way back in 2014, of course, that job ended up going to Manfred

For the past decade, Tom Werner has been a prominent part of an ownership group in Boston that has turned the Red Sox into a top baseball franchise, the winner of three World Series and the producer of some pioneering marketing for a sports team.

Now, with a week to go before team owners are to pick a replacement for Bud Selig as Major League Baseball’s commissioner, Werner has emerged as a formidable challenger to Selig’s longtime deputy and closest adviser, Rob Manfred.

Selig formally announced in September that he would step down in January 2015, and Manfred, baseball’s chief operating officer, has been seen as the favorite to succeed him. But Werner’s candidacy has gained some traction in recent weeks as he has received the backing of a small but influential group of owners who are strongly opposed to Manfred and are trying to block his election.

Until recently, the owners opposed to Manfred — the Chicago White Sox’ Jerry Reinsdorf, the Red Sox’ John Henry and the Los Angeles Angels’ Arte Moreno — had largely failed to come up with an alternative candidate.

 

[LostinNJ]

Is there a reason why they should "tell us more" than, "We want to see how our new pitching coach fares and see how the prospects develop?" And if so, what would that more be?
. . .
On a side note, I'd point out that if they think there's a chance they might be competitive, but it's a low probability, what they're saying and doing makes some amount of sense. Absent the fandom tire-fire, that is. But rightly or wrongly, people are very very bent out of shape over this, and they should have a more proactive strategy to address it. Unless they think they can ride it out and just start winning games.

The last part of your post is exactly the answer I would give. They are damaging their relationship with the fans, and therefore damaging the brand. I don't know if other people are going to spend less on the Red Sox in 2024 because of the tire-fire (very apt term), but I probably will. A business that alienates its customers is doing something wrong. As to what they should say, that's a great question. Maybe they could say they have tremendous faith in their prospects and don't want to obstruct their path to greatness.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

The last part of your post is exactly the answer I would give. They are damaging their relationship with the fans, and therefore damaging the brand. I don't know if other people are going to spend less on the Red Sox in 2024 because of the tire-fire (very apt term), but I probably will. A business that alienates its customers is doing something wrong. As to what they should say, that's a great question. Maybe they could say they have tremendous faith in their prospects and don't want to obstruct their path to greatness.

If they say that - and do not truly feel that way - couldn’t that backfire massively as well.

Then the narrative (and worry) becomes that they cannot evaluate talent. Which would of course be a massive problem as well. That would actually be a far worse problem than PR/messaging incompetence.

Just to play the game, if the new PoBO thinks that the MLB roster and farm system the previous PoBO put together truly stinks (and has made that clear to FSG - or they thought it anyway and that is why they fired him), there is really nothing he can say. He can’t come out and say “the roster is garbage and the farm system is massively overrated, because FanGraphs doesn’t actually determine wins and losses”, can he…?

 

[Auger34]

Breslow couldn’t stand up there and say “80% of the roster is garbage, and I tried like hell to sell 95% of the farm system as well and nobody wanted any of it.”

I think - to his credit - Breslow has tried diplomatically saying stuff like that. His talk about not being in a position to trade future wins for current ones. Talking about the off season not going as he expected (maybe he thought there would be interest in pieces that weren’t Teel, Mayer or Anthony). Now they have Gammons “a team that isn’t as good as they (FSG) thinks” and Bill James saying it for them.

Case in point, I don’t think it’s imposible Breslow looks at the MLB team and says Wong, Abreu and Duran aren’t MLB level starters, Yoshida isn’t good enough to play LF and isn’t good enough as a bat to be a true DH (but nobody is interested in trading for him and eating more than 50% of the deal), and that in his opinion none of Pivetta, Houck, Winckowski, etc are capable starters in the AL East.

Breslow didn't start off with that messaging though.

When he first got hired it was all about being aggressive for pitching and parting with some prospects that might hurt in order to get that pitching.

That message has completely changed. Maybe ownership and Breslow really thought they would get Yamamoto and that one domino would have changed everything. In hindsight, that looks pretty foolish since they appear to have got blown out of the water with their offer and YY seemed to have very little interest in actually going to Boston

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Breslow didn't start off with that messaging though.

When he first got hired it was all about being aggressive for pitching and parting with some prospects that might hurt in order to get that pitching.

That message has completely changed. Maybe ownership and Breslow really thought they would get Yamamoto and that one domino would have changed everything. In hindsight, that looks pretty foolish since they appear to have got blown out of the water with their offer and YY seemed to have very little interest in actually going to Boston

The entire offseason has been a complete clusterfuck of communication and expectations.

Go back and watch the Breslow intro. There is NO WAY to predict what this off season has become when you go back and look watch that presser.

I’m incredible bullish on Breslow. His moves this off season are more creative than anything Bloom did.

And creativity will be important if you don’t spend money.

 

[Auger34]

The entire offseason has been a complete clusterfuck of communication and expectations.

Go back and watch the Breslow intro. There is NO WAY to predict what this off season has become when you go back and look watch that presser.

I’m incredible bullish on Breslow. His moves this off season are more creative than anything Bloom did.

And creativity will be important if you don’t spend money.

Bingo.

I don't mean to call out @Big Papi's Mango Salsa, but I do think that the narrative that Breslow knew all along that this team was going to suck isn't true at all.

When Breslow was hired it seemed like everyone on that podium thought that this team was going to spend and compete (or at least that was the messaging). Maybe that was in order to get people to buy season tickets but even then I think the messaging would have been different.

I really don't know what is going on but it's all incredibly weird

 

[HfxBob]

The entire offseason has been a complete clusterfuck of communication and expectations.

Go back and watch the Breslow intro. There is NO WAY to predict what this off season has become when you go back and look watch that presser.

Breslow subtly informed us there had been a change in his expectations with that statement that started "As I've gotten to know this ownership better..."

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Breslow didn't start off with that messaging though.

When he first got hired it was all about being aggressive for pitching and parting with some prospects that might hurt in order to get that pitching.

That message has completely changed. Maybe ownership and Breslow really thought they would get Yamamoto and that one domino would have changed everything. In hindsight, that looks pretty foolish since they appear to have got blown out of the water with their offer and YY seemed to have very little interest in actually going to Boston

Didn‘t Breslow pretty much always talk about acquiring controllable pitching via trades as his “plan.” I don’t mind being called out if I’m wrong. I literally can only think of Breslow talking about trading.

He then finds out that there is zero interest in Wong, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida or anyone in the farm system not named Anthony, Mayer or Teel and thus the off season “didn’t go as he anticipated.”

Trading for pitching is the first thing I can find Breslow talking about with any degree of “clarity”, and if other teams aren’t interested in what the Red Sox have to sell, what can he say or do.


(Keep in mind, I’m not talking at all about Kennedy and Werner and their quotes. I’m talking Breslow specifically. I never recall him talking about spending big, I often recall him talking about trying to trade hitting for pitching - but nobody was interested in the Red Sox hitting…)

 

[YTF]

The only way this makes sense to me is if they are truly still going after Montgomery (or Snell) but are keeping mum on this publicly because they don't want to give any additional leverage to Boras, with whom they are engaged in a game of chicken.

IMO Boras is holding all of the cards here including the fact that it's now more than just the fan base and media who are being critical of the management/ownership. His guys will get paid. Perhaps the $$$ or years might not match up to expectations, but they'll make good coin and will have the opportunity to sign with teams that are projecting as more functional and competitive. If the Sox blink they are the ones losing out IF they are indeed interested in either JM or BS. My preference would be JM as I think that the team is currently ensconced in enough BS.

 

[chawson]

They made offers to both Hernandez and Soler. They like the players. The limit on years is pretty arbitrary.
If you what suggest what is the plan? Wait until next winter and hope you win then?

I'd say the explanation here is that it's not ideal to add another multi-year contract on a thirtysomething outfielder to Yoshida's when you've got a lot of young OF talent coming up.

The stronger explanation — for all of it — would be if they've earmarked money to sign Juan Soto next year, but they'll have competition.

or
4. The RS don't think these particular FAs are worth the $/years they are currently asking for. (most likely)

The only way this makes sense to me is if they are truly still going after Montgomery (or Snell) but are keeping mum on this publicly because they don't want to give any additional leverage to Boras, with whom they are engaged in a game of chicken.

As nondramatic or unpopular as the above explanation may be, it seems like the likeliest to me.

Rosenthal's story in today's Athletic raises the specter of collusion without overtly addressing it. I'm not sure if Boras seeded that, but it sure seems that way.

But I don't know. I'm of two minds. I think Jordan Montgomery is a good pitcher, not a great one, with a fairly high bust rate over a span of the next five years.

Relative to John Henry's total wealth, then of course I think we should sign him. But when I think about redistributing wealth, then I stop thinking about baseball and start thinking about much larger issues, and the pockets of one random guy is not my ideal beneficiary.

Within the narrow rules of the modern baseball, and the strategy needed to win consistently in the AL East, then it seems questionable to give Jordan Montgomery, a far inferior pitcher to David Price and Chris Sale, the same kind of money.

 

[JimD]

Every time he talks, things get worse. If Henry were paying attention, he’d have been canned by now.

Kennedy has had an ownership stake since 2015, he's not some middle-management flunky. Besides, Sam is doing exactly what Henry and Werner want him to do by taking flak so they don't have to.

 

[Jimbodandy]

Kennedy has had an ownership stake since 2015, he's not some middle-management flunky. Besides, Sam is doing exactly what Henry and Werner want him to do by taking flak so they don't have to.

Damn right. He's an upper management flunky. Get it right people.

 

[TubeSoxs]

The entire offseason has been a complete clusterfuck of communication and expectations.

Go back and watch the Breslow intro. There is NO WAY to predict what this off season has become when you go back and look watch that presser.

I’m incredible bullish on Breslow. His moves this off season are more creative than anything Bloom did.

And creativity will be important if you don’t spend money.

Oh absolutely. He’s already done more to build the farm’s pitching depth then Bloom did in four seasons brining in two top twenty prospects. I just hope he doesn’t share Bloom’s draft strategies also and uses early draft capital on pitching. With each day I’m more convinced he’s handcuffed with what he can spend. Hopefully brining in middling pitching prospects is the start to getting creative in acquiring a top end starter.

 

[Auger34]

Didn‘t Breslow pretty much always talk about acquiring controllable pitching via trades as his “plan.” I don’t mind being called out if I’m wrong. I literally can only think of Breslow talking about trading.

He then finds out that there is zero interest in Wong, Abreu, Duran, Yoshida or anyone in the farm system not named Anthony, Mayer or Teel and thus the off season “didn’t go as he anticipated.”

Trading for pitching is the first thing I can find Breslow talking about with any degree of “clarity”, and if other teams aren’t interested in what the Red Sox have to sell, what can he say or do.


(Keep in mind, I’m not talking at all about Kennedy and Werner and their quotes. I’m talking Breslow specifically. I never recall him talking about spending big, I often recall him talking about trying to trade hitting for pitching - but nobody was interested in the Red Sox hitting…)

Maybe this is semantics but if Breslow really thought that everything stunk like you said in the original post, I doubt he would have brought up trading to acquiring pitching right?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

Maybe this is semantics but if Breslow really thought that everything stunk like you said in the original post, I doubt he would have brought up trading to acquiring pitching right?

Well, that is why I said it’s a plausible scenario where he probably thought he could trade pieces for pitching - which would go a long way toward making the team not stink - found out he couldn’t, and thus had to change course pretty rapidly.

But if the first domino necessary to fall (in his mind) to become a contender in 2024 was to deal from position pieces to acquire controllable starting pitching, and he was shut down on multiple fronts (Seattle, Miami), that’d have to be a pretty big sea change.

Again, I don’t know. I could just be - admittedly - trying to find a scenario that isn’t as bleak as “Breslow was lied to and the team is effed until FSG sells.” That’s entirely possible…

Though I will put it like this - if I thought the team stunk and would continue to stink until acquiring two top half of the rotation starters (which I do) if I knew I didn’t have the budget space to sign two and found out I couldn’t trade for one, I’d make pretty much the exact moves he has.

Though I’d also go a lot further (try like heck to deal Jansen, Martin and Pivetta now; I’d also try to move Yoshida if anyone would pay the salary, but there doesn’t seem to be interest - which based on the reporting last year that Bloom blew everyone out of the water to sign him - tracks).


To be clear - I’d still sign Montgomery, personally. But I’ve given up on that happening. So now I’d be thinking “what can I do to make 2026+ better bc 2024 and 2025 are going to be tough.”

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

By many accounts, they planned to deal for a starter. Presumably, that was dealing an OF (Duran? Abreu?), which would then have opened up an OF (or DH) spot to sign someone like Hernandez or Soler. But, for whatever reason, they couldn’t trade for a SP, which has made them unable to do anything that they were supposed to do after that. Could even explain why they’ve been looking to deal Jansen, to free up money to sign a SP.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Reasons for frustration
1. The Red Sox had an incredibly obvious weakness that they have not addressed.
2. The current roster does NOT suck (fangraphs eg puts them around .500).
3. They have allowed relativly minor contract differences to prevent making the team better (you can spin this any way you want - but not getting a player you liked because you didn't want to give a third year is pretty inexcusable).
4. MOST IMPORTANTLY NO ONE HAS SIGNED in like a month.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

From a societal perspective, paying athletes millions while teachers go paycheck to paycheck is insane. It creates a very perverse set of incentives.

Hot take.

 

[CKDexterHaven]

It shouldn’t be a surprise—this zero gain offseason—when they needed to find a chief and umpteen candidates declined the role… after another lot declined to even interview for it. What did they know? What were they told? It’s as if the first bullet point on the job post was “• Take a position beneath the bus, so‘s we don’t have to throw you far.”

And yet it still surprises me. This is a storied, valuable franchise.

I also do not understand the projected perspective that we are not signing guys because they may not be evaluated as being “worth” the contracts. Even if the entire pool of available free agents sucked eggs and wanted twice as much as the FO thinks they’re worth… doing nothing means you do not improve from a last place team. And prices are not likely to be more happymaking next year, when we are likely to be coming off yet another last place, further diminishing team attractiveness to guys they might want to spend on.

All the big business/corporate talk is over my head/outside of my interests, but it baffles me that a strategy could be to willfully devalue a franchise. We can get players now “for just money” and we aren't. It would be cute to be able to replicate Rays’ ‘success’ on the cheap, maybe at some point it should be recognized that that’s some sort of voodoo and our successes came a different way. Feels more like we are going to be another Pittsburgh before North Tampa Plus happens.

 

[buttons]

It shouldn’t be a surprise—this zero gain offseason—when they needed to find a chief and umpteen candidates declined the role… after another lot declined to even interview for it. What did they know? What were they told? It’s as if the first bullet point on the job post was “• Take a position beneath the bus, so‘s we don’t have to throw you far.”

And yet it still surprises me. This is a storied, valuable franchise.

I also do not understand the projected perspective that we are not signing guys because they may not be evaluated as being “worth” the contracts. Even if the entire pool of available free agents sucked eggs and wanted twice as much as the FO thinks they’re worth… doing nothing means you do not improve from a last place team. And prices are not likely to be more happymaking next year, when we are likely to be coming off yet another last place, further diminishing team attractiveness to guys they might want to spend on.

All the big business/corporate talk is over my head/outside of my interests, but it baffles me that a strategy could be to willfully devalue a franchise. We can get players now “for just money” and we aren't. It would be cute to be able to replicate Rays’ ‘success’ on the cheap, maybe at some point it should be recognized that that’s some sort of voodoo and our successes came a different way. Feels more like we are going to be another Pittsburgh before North Tampa Plus happens.

 

[buttons]

Could not agree with you more. Players like fans want a team that is in the hunt each and every year. Sure teams will most likely pay for the last years of a contract way more than present value but unfortunately that’s what you have to do to attract the players that can do the job today,
Is there any team out there worth its salt that isn’t paying any players more than present value.
the concept of no long contracts sounds good until you realize that the players you need will not buy into it.

 

[nighthob]

Oh absolutely. He’s already done more to build the farm’s pitching depth then Bloom did in four seasons brining in two top twenty prospects. I just hope he doesn’t share Bloom’s draft strategies also and uses early draft capital on pitching.

I’m of the opposite mind, I’d like to see players like Sandlin, down draft college arms that can be developed into quality starters. Boston has lots of live arms, Romero’s international scouting department accumulated a good supply over the last several years. Where Boston failed was in rebuilding the pitching development infrastructure (the developmental staff went to hell under Dombrowski). Guys like Sandlin, an 11th round pick, are exactly where they should be looking. The hit rate on hitters drafted early is astronomically higher than prep arms and even the college ones, which is why more teams are prioritizing hitters early.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1760300133038620828?s=46


Well this is certainly exciting

 

[BeantownIdaho]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1760300133038620828?s=46


Well this is certainly exciting

Nice to see extensions being talked about with Bello and Casas.

 

[moondog80]

View: https://twitter.com/chriscotillo/status/1760300133038620828?s=46


Well this is certainly exciting

Maybe. Tell me the terms first.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Maybe. Tell me the terms first.

Given that they're terms this front office and ownership agreed to, I can't imagine poo pooing getting an extension done.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Maybe. Tell me the terms first.

Its just exciting from an overall strategy standpoint. Mookie should have never made it to FA after 6 years. Devers should have never made it to Arb 3.

Spending on proven young talent is almost always the correct move.

 

[moondog80]

Its just exciting from an overall strategy standpoint. Mookie should have never made it to FA after 6 years. Devers should have never made it to Arb 3.

Spending on proven young talent is almost always the correct move.

Eh, there’s plenty of examples of these deals going south, and not just Wander Franco situations. Joe Mauer. Evan Longoria. That Bobby Witt deal doesn’t look great for KC. I’m not against them altogether, but they are not a slam dunk.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Amed Rosario signs for 1.5 million with the Rays.
Fasngraphs predicts 1 War in 300 AB's, and a plus defender at shortstop.
Story projects to 2.7 War as a full time player.

Double Amed's playing time and he is slightly worse than Story - but the difference is surprisingly small. TBC Rosario is NOT as good as Story but it is stuff like this that keeps the Rays competitive.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

To do list today:

1. Extend Bello - 10 years/$150M
2. Extend Casas - 10 years/$170M
3. Sign Montgomery - 5 years/$130M with opt out after year 3 and two team options possibly bringing the deal to 7/$200M
4. Trade Jansen, Duran, and Martin, promote Houck to closer role
5. Sign JD Martinez 2 years/$18M
6. JWH sits down and addresses the "confusion" from this offseason and commits to winning

 

[Cellar-Door]

Its just exciting from an overall strategy standpoint. Mookie should have never made it to FA after 6 years. Devers should have never made it to Arb 3.

Spending on proven young talent is almost always the correct move.

But were either of those cases where the strategy was to not discuss extensions? I thought in both cases it was that they lowballed (or at least in the players' eye did) the player and they got to FA and ARB because they didn't get the offer they wanted. This seems like it's not really a strategy change, and given no deal yet, may not even be a different outcome.

 

[simplicio]

Amed Rosario signs for 1.5 million with the Rays.
Fasngraphs predicts 1 War in 300 AB's, and a plus defender at shortstop.
Story projects to 2.7 War as a full time player.

Double Amed's playing time and he is slightly worse than Story - but the difference is surprisingly small. TBC Rosario is NOT as good as Story but it is stuff like this that keeps the Rays competitive.

Clemens wrote a pretty good piece about why Rosario went as cheap as he did: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-got-amed-rosario-for-a-song-what-does-it-all-mean/

An important part of that is that doubling his projected playing time would not double his value.

Also, he was very far from a plus SS last year. -16 DRS/-14 OAA is in "worst MLB defender not named Schwarber" territory. He did alright at 2B though.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Eh, there’s plenty of examples of these deals going south, and not just Wander Franco situations. Joe Mauer. Evan Longoria. That Bobby Witt deal doesn’t look great for KC. I’m not against them altogether, but they are not a slam dunk.

Hall of Famer Joe Mauer, who went to the Hall of Fame playing for only his home town team, was signed to a free agent contract one year before he was eligible. He basically got market rate to lock it up one year early. This is very comparable to the Devers extension, not at all Casas or Bello.

Longoria was signed through 2017 (including options) a week after he debuted. He was paid $57.5M over those 10 years he was with the Devil Rays, and put up 51.2 bWAR, a tremendous deal for the team. What are you talking about?

 

[chrisfont9]

To do list today:

1. Extend Bello - 10 years/$150M
2. Extend Casas - 10 years/$170M
3. Sign Montgomery - 5 years/$130M with opt out after year 3 and two team options possibly bringing the deal to 7/$200M
4. Trade Jansen, Duran, and Martin, promote Houck to closer role
5. Sign JD Martinez 2 years/$18M
6. JWH sits down and addresses the "confusion" from this offseason and commits to winning

7. Cora extension?

[Also 6 will only make things worse. Can we just do baseball and not PR?]

 

[moondog80]

Hall of Famer Joe Mauer, who went to the Hall of Fame playing for only his home town team, was signed to a free agent contract one year before he was eligible. He basically got market rate to lock it up one year early. This is very comparable to the Devers extension, not at all Casas or Bello.

Longoria was signed through 2017 (including options) a week after he debuted. He was paid $57.5M over those 10 years he was with the Devil Rays, and put up 51.2 bWAR, a tremendous deal for the team. What are you talking about?

Most of that Longoria WAR was accumulated while he would have been under club control anyway. His play declined once he hit what would have been his FA years. There’s a reason they ate money when trading him to SF.

 

[SirPsychoSquints]

Most of that Longoria WAR was accumulated while he would have been under club control anyway. His play declined once he hit what would have been his FA years. There’s a reason they ate money when trading him to SF.

You're referring to the 6 year, $100M extension signed when he had 5 years of service time, not the 10 year, $57.5M extension signed when he was a rookie.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

To do list today:

1. Extend Bello - 10 years/$150M
2. Extend Casas - 10 years/$170M
3. Sign Montgomery - 5 years/$130M with opt out after year 3 and two team options possibly bringing the deal to 7/$200M
4. Trade Jansen, Duran, and Martin, promote Houck to closer role
5. Sign JD Martinez 2 years/$18M
6. JWH sits down and addresses the "confusion" from this offseason and commits to winning

On board with all except 4..... If Duran continues his improvement I see him as a valuable part of the future. Jansen and Martin will bring more at the deadline unless someone's closer goes down early. Just one opinion.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

Eh, there’s plenty of examples of these deals going south, and not just Wander Franco situations. Joe Mauer. Evan Longoria. That Bobby Witt deal doesn’t look great for KC. I’m not against them altogether, but they are not a slam dunk.

There is no such thing as zero risk player commitment.

Which is why you have to have a constant pipeline of talent to augment bad outcomes

 

[moondog80]

There is no such thing as zero risk player commitment.

Which is why you have to have a constant pipeline of talent to augment bad outcomes

Of course. Which is why I simply want to know the terms of any agreement before celebrating.

 

[chawson]

6. JWH sits down and addresses the "confusion" from this offseason and commits to winning

John Henry did that last year, didn’t he?

In rare interview (with McAdam, then of Boston Sports Journal), John Henry weighs in on the team's approach to spending, free agency, Xander Bogaerts and Chaim Bloom.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2023/02/19/john-henry-weighs-in-on-teams-approach-to-spending-free-agency-xander-bogaerts-and-chaim-bloom

BSJ: It would seem that with the decision to trade Mookie Betts and this past offseason's inability to retain Xander Bogaerts, the Red Sox have drawn something of a line in the sand when it comes to signing (or re-signing) big name free agents, especially those in search of long-term deals (10-12 years). Is that accurate?
John Henry: No.

BSJ: Do the Red Sox now, as a matter of policy, abstain from bidding on players seeking terms that will take them into their late 30s and early 40s, the way you once expressed reluctance to sign pitchers were 30 or older?
JH: No.

There's been a false narrative that we somehow stopped spending -- completely unsupported by the facts -- that we no longer sign free agents, that we are uninterested in or incapable of winning despite our track record.

I don't think anyone realizes there are 30 teams in these sports every year that are all doing everything they can to win. In a particular year, some clubs are criticized because they aren't "going for it'' when they are going every single thing they can short of destroying their futures to win. You always have to keep an eye on the future. And every team (maybe not the Mets) has a budget. It's so easy to fall as we did in 2022 to mediocrity. We needed to make changes but we haven't lost our way. Historically, when these critics think you're doing something right, we did temporarily lose our way. You have to be willing to go against the grain and we always have.

McAdam has been driving this narrative for a while. People don’t seem to like, or remember, the answers that ownership/the FO are giving. Not much you can do about that.

 

[joe dokes]

To do list today:
6. JWH sits down and addresses the "confusion" from this offseason and commits to winning

"I am committed to winning. I believe that the way the Mets and Padres tripped over their dicks last year and that the Dodgers have only won a World Series in a season that many people say 'doesn't count' demonstrates that simply spending as much money as possible (or as much as some fans would like) is *not* the best way to win."

I'm guessing that would not make a lot of people happy. I prefer silent and weird John Henry to talking and weird John Henry.

 

[TomRicardo]

John Henry did that last year, didn’t he?

In rare interview (with McAdam, then of Boston Sports Journal), John Henry weighs in on the team's approach to spending, free agency, Xander Bogaerts and Chaim Bloom.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2023/02/19/john-henry-weighs-in-on-teams-approach-to-spending-free-agency-xander-bogaerts-and-chaim-bloom

People don’t seem to like these answers, or they don’t believe him. Not much you can do about that.

I will defend JWH here. I don't think he was lying. I don't think he has any hard rules on signing extensions, I think they are discussed. They have just made the wrong decision almost every time on contracts and extensions since Dombrowski left. FSG has a streak akin to Sony. Mookie is his Madame Webb.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

7. Cora extension?

[Also 6 will only make things worse. Can we just do baseball and not PR?]

I could care less if John Henry comes out to speak to the press, but I know that everyone is salivating over that desire. It would not hurt to see him open his checkbook, and then vocally state that he is committed to winning, but it is what it is.

On board with all except 4..... If Duran continues his improvement I see him as a valuable part of the future. Jansen and Martin will bring more at the deadline unless someone's closer goes down early. Just one opinion.

I agree with you on Duran, but I also think that packaging him along with Jansen, and/or Martin could get us a decent return. I am also higher on Rafaela than most people. If they pitch well, you are correct, both will be more valuable at the trade deadline. At his age, I am not convinced that Martin will continue to build upon what happened last year, but I could certainly be wrong. Hence, my desire to “sell high“ on him.

John Henry did that last year, didn’t he?

In rare interview (with McAdam, then of Boston Sports Journal), John Henry weighs in on the team's approach to spending, free agency, Xander Bogaerts and Chaim Bloom.

https://www.bostonsportsjournal.com/2023/02/19/john-henry-weighs-in-on-teams-approach-to-spending-free-agency-xander-bogaerts-and-chaim-bloom




People don’t seem to like these answers, or they don’t believe him. Not much you can do about that.

you are not wrong about this. I am just tired of hearing so many people opine for John Henry to say something that I would like to see it happen and make that storyline disappear.

"I am committed to winning. I believe that the way the Mets and Padres tripped over their dicks last year and that the Dodgers have only won a World Series in a season that many people say 'doesn't count' demonstrates that simply spending as much money as possible (or as much as some fans would like) is *not* the best way to win."

I'm guessing that would not make a lot of people happy. I prefer silent and weird John Henry to talking and weird John Henry.

Again, my to do list item for John Henry was simply to shut everyone else up not because I have no burning desire to hear anything that he might say awkwardly or otherwise.

 

[nvalvo]

Eh, there’s plenty of examples of these deals going south, and not just Wander Franco situations. Joe Mauer. Evan Longoria. That Bobby Witt deal doesn’t look great for KC. I’m not against them altogether, but they are not a slam dunk.

Huh?

Longoria was paid ~$150m for seasons in which he produced ~58 rWAR, 23 of it after he would have been a free agent. That’s one of the greatest signings of all time. Even his “bad” Giants seasons were 7 WAR for $81m, hardly a catastrophe. In exchange for that, the Rays got 16 post-FA WAR for $43m! That’s insanely valuable!

Mauer similarly: ~$200m for ~55 rWAR, which is probably undercounting the contributions of a guy who was a good defensive catcher for much of the deal. Even after he would have been FA, he was worth something like 30 WAR.

Wander Franco I’ll give you.

Did their performance decline as their cost increased? Yes, of course, but the overall value proposition on those other deals was excellent.

 

[moondog80]

Huh?

Longoria was paid ~$150m for seasons in which he produced ~58 rWAR, 23 of it after he would have been a free agent. That’s one of the greatest signings of all time. Even his “bad” Giants seasons were 7 WAR for $81m, hardly a catastrophe. In exchange for that, the Rays got 16 post-FA WAR for $43m! That’s insanely valuable!

Mauer similarly: ~$200m for ~55 rWAR, which is probably undercounting the contributions of a guy who was a good defensive catcher for much of the deal. Even after he would have been FA, he was worth something like 30 WAR.

Wander Franco I’ll give you.

Did their performance decline as their cost increased? Yes, of course, but the overall value proposition on those other deals was excellent.

I addressed this above. How does the math on Longoria work out if you back out the 6 years when he was under club control no matter what?