You essentially said the word "probably" doesn't mean probably.
If Kennedy has to give an answer there, what he said is probably the safest thing because it reflects the current reality. If he says payroll would be equal or greater to last year, he’s throwing Breslow under a bus.
I’ve never heard the tone or context of the exchange, only seen it in writing, but it seems more like a non-answer to me than most people. It’s also questionable why we are interpreting it as a directive — Kennedy
expects — and not simply an observation, especially given the clarifying statement he followed it with.
What’s being eclipsed, however, is the likelihood that Breslow simply doesn’t think Snell or Montgomery are worth contracts in the range of 5-8 years and $175-270 million, or whatever Boras is asking. That seems
extremely likely to me, and pretty sensible.
Instead, the entire conversation has been trained on what our payroll is relative to last year’s, and surmising that there’s some insidious decree at play. That narrative —
that there is something wrong with the Red Sox if they don’t spend this money right now — is *extremely beneficial* to Scott Boras and his clients.
I’m saying it’s more nuanced than that. The Sox like Montgomery, a good-not-great pitcher, but not $175 million more than they like Houck, a younger and still promising pitcher who projects to be about 0.25 runs per game worse next year than Monty, and who’d (likely) be sent to the pen (or possibly traded). Houck’s repertoire is a lot like the Giants pitchers that Bailey has worked with, and I imagine he’s an interesting project.
The Red Sox have about $100 million off the books from last year in traded or non-returning players (so far). That could increase if we trade Jansen. They’ve added Giolito ($19.3), O’Neill (5.9) and Criswell (1), and seen a few arb increases — roughly $30-32 million. It doesn’t seem like a conspiracy or “theft” if they don’t
immediately reallocate the rest to players this offseason, given the players available. They were in on Yamamoto, it didn’t work out. But it seems to me that spending that money immediately, for the sake of it, is a bad idea for team-building reasons, because then you’re stuck with a Blake Snell on your team from 2027-2032. So, it does seem like “probably” is an accurate answer there, especially because it’s where the payroll actually stood on the day he said it.
I think they’ll spend on the right players soon enough, and on extensions.