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DannyDarwinism

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He's such a weird case. He came out of college with more of a defensive than offensive reputation, and has amazing physical tools. He put Tatum in jail in that memorable 2017 summer league.

And then he's just been a tire fire as a pro. You can talk about offensive load all you want, but his defensive clips are vomit-inducing. And he's been on a really good team with a fairly strong culture throughout this.

Odd player.
Yeah, more than one scouting reports had Marcus Smart as a comp for him coming out of Louisville, with all the concerns being on the offensive end. I remember him owning Dennis Smith Jr in college in a game that really shaped my perception of both players. He, as the kids say, had that dog in him. Now he just dogs it to a pathetic extent. I get that high usage on offense is taxing, but it should never be an excuse for a guy with his tools to be as bad as he is.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I just pulled together a few comparable "alpha" "guards", with the caveats that 1) Luka is big like a forward but is a guard, and 2) Trae isn't on here to skew the numbers (he is one of the few guys that popped into mind as meeting the criteria).

View attachment 53215

As everyone knows, Trae is historically bad. But what's fascinating is your memory of Donovan. It's like the "alpha guard" union pulled him aside somewhere in season 2/3 and said "Hey Spider, stop working so hard on defense. You're making us look bad. Take a break once in a while."

Donovan was average before the end of season one and trending up...and then just stopped and is now down with Booker, Doncic, and Morant as "Bad" defenders. Nobody is down with Trae as "worse than the chair" defender.
Perhaps Mitchell's regression is a function of a number of things including Snyder & staff's system as well as the league adjusting to him. I think he is a hell of a player and is capable of upping his defensive intensity - it would not be surprising to see him retrace back to at least average if he winds up playing for Thibs.
 

Jimbodandy

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Perhaps Mitchell's regression is a function of a number of things including Snyder & staff's system as well as the league adjusting to him. I think he is a hell of a player and is capable of upping his defensive intensity - it would not be surprising to see him retrace back to at least average if he winds up playing for Thibs.
Must insert the obvious "if Thibs doesn't kill him first" caveat, but you're 100% right. Mitchell is on a list of guys who could do it. I felt the same way when Ingram's name came up at one point. Guys with athleticism and tools at that high of a level, kinda hard to suck at defense if you're trying.
 

lovegtm

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I just pulled together a few comparable "alpha" "guards", with the caveats that 1) Luka is big like a forward but is a guard, and 2) Trae isn't on here to skew the numbers (he is one of the few guys that popped into mind as meeting the criteria).

View attachment 53215

As everyone knows, Trae is historically bad. But what's fascinating is your memory of Donovan. It's like the "alpha guard" union pulled him aside somewhere in season 2/3 and said "Hey Spider, stop working so hard on defense. You're making us look bad. Take a break once in a while."

Donovan was average before the end of season one and trending up...and then just stopped and is now down with Booker, Doncic, and Morant as "Bad" defenders. Nobody is down with Trae as "worse than the chair" defender.
Thanks for that, interesting to see my memory wasn't totally off.

I could see the Knicks betting big on him. He can play way bigger than 6-1, so the issues with him next to Brunson are overblown imo, IF he can rediscover his intensity.
 

radsoxfan

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I love that Danny set the market with the Gobert overpay and now can cash in with Mitchell. He was always gone the moment Gobert was traded.

I don’t have a great sense of Barrett’s value, I’ve been pretty underwhelmed but maybe he has more upside than I am giving him credit for.

Owning the Knicks draft for the next 4-5 years would be a fantastic rebuild play.
 

benhogan

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what's the latest with Ayton? How long does it take for Brooklyn to say we have NO interest in swapping KD around a DA max deal?

Maybe Bill Duffy is busy going through all the MAX offers that are sitting on his desk
 

PedroKsBambino

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what's the latest with Ayton? How long does it take for Brooklyn to say we have NO interest in swapping KD around a DA max deal?

Maybe Bill Duffy is busy going through all the MAX offers that are sitting on his desk
I'd guess it is about Phoenix trying to figure out the other stuff going on around KD and their roster so they can decide how to handle a potential Indiana offer sheet/sign and trade offer. And they do have some leverage---if Ayton signs without Phoenix being bought in to a plan he may be signing up to stay in Phoenix as they may just match....which I'm guessing is not the outcome he wants. At some point Ind will likely say "now or never" just to plan their training camp, and I suppose to elminate the small risk some set of other transactions creates another bidder (hard to see), but not a rush from their perspective I'd imagine.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Must insert the obvious "if Thibs doesn't kill him first" caveat, but you're 100% right. Mitchell is on a list of guys who could do it. I felt the same way when Ingram's name came up at one point. Guys with athleticism and tools at that high of a level, kinda hard to suck at defense if you're trying.
I just looked at Donovan's MPG over his career and this is a real consideration. The guy really has played a tight range of minutes over his career, averaging 33.7 over his entire career with his max MPG avg coming at 34.3. Even if Thibs pushes Spida to just ~35 MPG which is where Randle landed at last season, its worth wondering if he might struggle with it. His run has been pretty tightly managed.
 

benhogan

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As long as the Knicks aren't choosing the players, definitely.
Ha, its been a rough couple of decades for the Knicks, but they have done very well the last 2yrs late in the first round (according to Partnow).

If Danny can extract RJ, Grimes, Quickley + multiple 1st/swaps he will have hit another home run this offseason

I'd guess it is about Phoenix trying to figure out the other stuff going on around KD and their roster so they can decide how to handle a potential Indiana offer sheet/sign and trade offer. And they do have some leverage---if Ayton signs without Phoenix being bought in to a plan he may be signing up to stay in Phoenix as they may just match....which I'm guessing is not the outcome he wants. At some point Ind will likely say "now or never" just to plan their training camp, and I suppose to elminate the small risk some set of other transactions creates another bidder (hard to see), but not a rush from their perspective I'd imagine.
sounds about right

figured Indiana was ready on Sunday night and built something around a Myles Turner/S&T (but maybe they got cute with a lowball offer)
 

benhogan

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I wonder if it will affect end-of-game situations where teams need to foul after an inbounds
the NBA added that defending teams could still commit take fouls in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime periods without the added penalties.
 

Jimbodandy

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If Danny can extract RJ, Grimes, Quickley + multiple 1st/swaps he will have hit another home run this offseason.
Yeah. Bunch o'picks plus a few guys who won't win now but maybe will someday. Don't want to peak too soon. Good plan.

the NBA added that defending teams could still commit take fouls in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter or in overtime periods without the added penalties.
Perfect imo. The "let's get rid of all intentional fouls" movement never had a chance.

I'd have preferred 2 plus the ball on takes, but 1+ is a good start and should dramatically cut down one of the worst things evah (eliminating transition dunks).

I'd like to see them call ball +1 on the team intentionally committing fouls when UP at the end of games, playing the smart/boring strategy of taking the 3 ball out of the equation. Maybe they'll think of that someday.
 

radsoxfan

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As long as the Knicks aren't choosing the players, definitely.
Ha, fair enough.

The next 4-5 years of Knicks unprotected picks/swaps + Barrett is probably preferable to Donovan, Brunson, Randle et al.

That Knicks group doesn't excite me as a title contender and could easily be in lotto land with any injuries or unhappy players.
 

ifmanis5

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View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1547425333430743040

The Jazz and Knicks have started discussions on a Donovan Mitchell trade, sources tell me and @Tjonesonthenba. New York has Utah’s focus currently, among interested teams. Story at @TheAthletic:

View: https://twitter.com/YossiGozlan/status/1546976393975586817

Knicks can trade up to eight first-round picks -- four of their own, and four owed by other teams. They should be able to meet Utah's price for Donovan Mitchell with their combination of first-round picks and young players.
Expect the New York Knicks to quickly try and put together a package for Donovan Mitchell, according to league sources. Utah’s bar for Trading Mitchell is sky high. But the Knicks are the team that has the assets to make this a conversation
 

nattysez

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(1) Is there any chance Danny doesn't convince the Knicks to badly overpay for Mitchell?

(2) Paying heaps in picks and $ in order to have a PG and SG who are both listed at 6'1 seems ill-advised.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, there is potentially a fair deal here but NY will give up too much. I like Grimes and Quickley but they’re expendable if NY had Mitchell/Brunson, a Robinson/Toppin/Barrett/Mitchell/Brunson starting 5 would be very entertaining at the least. Randle, Grimes, Quickley plus 3-4 number 1s is as far as I’d go but I’m sure NY will go farther.
 

lovegtm

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(1) Is there any chance Danny doesn't convince the Knicks to badly overpay for Mitchell?

(2) Paying heaps in picks and $ in order to have a PG and SG who are both listed at 6'1 seems ill-advised.
I have serious concerns about Mitchell's D, but he's not really 6-1, in the sense that his arms are infinite.

If he tried on D, he would be fine guarding 2/3s, and would be able to switch onto a lot of 4s.
 

lovegtm

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Perfect imo. The "let's get rid of all intentional fouls" movement never had a chance.

I'd have preferred 2 plus the ball on takes, but 1+ is a good start and should dramatically cut down one of the worst things evah (eliminating transition dunks).

I'd like to see them call ball +1 on the team intentionally committing fouls when UP at the end of games, playing the smart/boring strategy of taking the 3 ball out of the equation. Maybe they'll think of that someday.
Perfect would be the enemy of the good here.

NBA end-of-game has its own issues, but take fouls were a separate category. Happy to deal with one piece at a time rather than trying to get a perfect package through.

The end result of this is that take fouls will stop in 90%+ of situations, and be a bad move for the committing team even when they happen due to muscle memory. Good rule change.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, I think it will deter most take fouls. EV way worse unless the guy is a truly horrific FT shooter.
I’m not sure that it will. If the cost of stopping a sure layup or open 3 is one FT prior to getting your defense set this still could be a smart play. We’ve seen the rule in SL and take fouls are still being committed just not as leniently as they used to be. I like the happy medium of this rule.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, more than one scouting reports had Marcus Smart as a comp for him coming out of Louisville, with all the concerns being on the offensive end. I remember him owning Dennis Smith Jr in college in a game that really shaped my perception of both players. He, as the kids say, had that dog in him. Now he just dogs it to a pathetic extent. I get that high usage on offense is taxing, but it should never be an excuse for a guy with his tools to be as bad as he is.
Mitchell was a defensive beast in college which was a part of their system. I always felt that much of the Utah scheme was designed to encourage penetration against Gobert as opposed to Mitchell not being able to defend.
 

EvilEmpire

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As mentioned earlier here, I'm also curious to see what Thibs could do defensively with Mitchell. But I do think the Knicks will have to overpay significantly to find out and I'm not looking forward to that.
 

Ed Hillel

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That seems ideal. Weakens the Suns and goes to a non-contender. Probably kills a Durant deal to Phoenix, too.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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As mentioned earlier here, I'm also curious to see what Thibs could do defensively with Mitchell. But I do think the Knicks will have to overpay significantly to find out and I'm not looking forward to that.
The Knicks have decided that assembling a team, versus building via the draft, is their best course of action and maybe they are right. Setting aside the wisdom of doing so around Mitchell and Brunson, they have identified the former as a trade target. If they do the transaction, they are implicitly saying whatever picks they send to Utah aren't as valuable to them as Mitchell is playing for them every night next season. From a business and buzz perspective, that has an immense amount of value, even if it may not move them meaningfully closer to a championship.

The problem with comparing these trades to one another is that it ignores the idiosyncratic nature of how teams are run overall. The Bucks "paid up" for Holiday because of where they were in their development cycle - my guess is most people believe it was a good move. From where I sit, there are a bunch of paths where the Knicks also "pay up" for Mitchell, don't win a championship immediately and are still happy about the outcome of the deal, even if all those picks yield productive+ NBA players.

I understand people love them some draft capital but again, here is The Ringer's chart from last year. You can certainly miss generational talents and each draft is unique. But this tells you that more often than not, the pick trader is the one who could be characterized as "selling at the high".

It is possible that the Knicks pay a janos' ransom for Mitchell and still get a good deal.

53263
 

lovegtm

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This is weird, the Pacers don't have the cap space to do this. And they'd need to have the space available to actually have the offer sheet signed. So they have to shed some salary, probably by giving Turner away somehow, but then the Suns could match and leave the Pacers with nothing.
I mean, presumably they have handled Turner somehow prior to this.
 

Cellar-Door

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Some indication that Ayton has not signed the sheet yet and will do so tonight (presumably after IND has made the corresponding move to get the last few million in space), leaving a window for a S&T.
 

nattysez

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This is weird, the Pacers don't have the cap space to do this. And they'd need to have the space available to actually have the offer sheet signed. So they have to shed some salary, probably by giving Turner away somehow, but then the Suns could match and leave the Pacers with nothing.
I think "has agreed" may be doing a lot of work here. The smart play for the Pacers and Ayton is to "agree" to the offer sheet but not sign it so that the Suns and Pacers can work out a sign-and-trade (presumably involving Turner). Once he signs the offer sheet with Indy, a sign and trade would not be allowed.

Edit - Beaten to it...
 

ehaz

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Pacers need to clear $4.7M to sign Ayton outright. Goga Bitadze makes $4.76M...
 

lovegtm

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nattysez

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It will take a lot of Knicks picks, because Mitchell is young, good, and not a huge flight risk, so it's different than getting the picks of a team with a 31 year-old star or whatever. It's a steep price, but not completely unthinkable.
That's fair. And I guess an argument could be made that if, as DeJesus said, the Knicks have decided they are better off team-building via free agency and trades rather than the draft, giving away extra picks to get that Fournier money off the books might be worthwhile. But it's just a huge haul, especially since Grimes seems like a guy who is improving steadily.
 

Cellar-Door

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Not without his consent they couldn't, and if I'm Ayton's agent I'm likely telling them... yeah you won't get that.

In other news, you'll be shocked to hear what Bobby Marks thinks would be a reasonable Knicks-Jazz trade.

View: https://twitter.com/KennyDucey/status/1547668096638275584
One thing about the Knicks' "8 1st rounders" is that their picks from other teams aren't good ones. DAL 2023, a heavily protected DET pick, WAS with significant protection, a 2025 MIL pick with weird protections (and possibly nothing).
 

PedroKsBambino

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I doubt it's a bluff---it would be really shocking if Suns let Ayton go for nothing.

Their owner may be bad enough to do it but man....hard to imagine.
 

Cellar-Door

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I doubt it's a bluff---it would be really shocking if Suns let Ayton go for nothing.

Their owner may be bad enough to do it but man....hard to imagine.
I mean in terms of S&T. The two teams have until midnight before the offer sheet is official. The Suns saying "we'll 100% match" is a negotiating ploy, as is IND opening the space.

On the other hand, Sarver is the cheapest owner usually, and that situation is going to be pretty toxic. The Woj "they could trade him" tweet makes it clear PHX isn't exactly committed to him.
 

PedroKsBambino

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It's pretty unappealing for all three parties (including Ayton) to have Phoenix match and sit on hiim until January. So you'd hope that they collectively find a better answer.

I will be stunned if Phoenix just lets him walk, though.

Do we think the hangup is who is in the S&T beyond Turner given different perceptions of value, etc.? Or something else? I suppose could be timing around a Durant to Phoenix deal too.
 

nattysez

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It's pretty unappealing for all three parties (including Ayton) to have Phoenix match and sit on hiim until January. So you'd hope that they collectively find a better answer.

I will be stunned if Phoenix just lets him walk, though.

Do we think the hangup is who is in the S&T beyond Turner given different perceptions of value, etc.? Or something else? I suppose could be timing around a Durant to Phoenix deal too.
Neither team seems to wants the guy they'd be trading, so each team is probably trying to get the other to sweeten the pot.
 

nighthob

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That seems ideal. Weakens the Suns and goes to a non-contender. Probably kills a Durant deal to Phoenix, too.
Probably not. But watching the Pacers tie up max space in yet another C when they're pretty much never worth that kind of money is hilarious. (There are a couple of exceptions, but it's incredibly unlikely that Ayton turns out to be one of them.)

Even if Phoenix is uninterested in Durant they simply match the offer, run it back for a year, and trade Ayton next summer.
 
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