Offseason Rumors/News

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
56,108
Rotten Apple
So does Donovan Mitchell go to MIA for Lowry, Herro and a bunch more picks?
Seems like they are going to build around him. Given that, Rudy had to go and now they are more cap flexible.
View: https://twitter.com/Tjonesonthenba/status/1542963670011068416

League sources: For now, there are no plans by the Utah Jazz to trade star guard Donovan Mitchell. The Jazz are committed to building around him. The Jazz are not done in trade talks. Expect more activity
 

ElcaballitoMVP

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 19, 2008
3,673
I mean, even if they go after someone like Ayton they're an 8 seed, at best. Unless Danny plans on using these 1sts to go get more help.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
28,054
If Kyrie-Westbrook doesn't happen suppose Danny would take Westbrook and 1-2 unprotected picks for Conley/Bogdanovich?

You need to know whether Mitchell is game to have one year of misery, of course....
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,216
Toscana via Kyiv
Seems like they are going to build around him. Given that, Rudy had to go and now they are more cap flexible.
View: https://twitter.com/Tjonesonthenba/status/1542963670011068416

League sources: For now, there are no plans by the Utah Jazz to trade star guard Donovan Mitchell. The Jazz are committed to building around him. The Jazz are not done in trade talks. Expect more activity
The Jazz would say this either way though. If they do want to deal Mitchell, you want other teams to really try to top themselves with future assets.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,466
5 picks is a lot. But we know one of them is #22...if the other four are also in the 20s, how much is it really?
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,216
Toscana via Kyiv
5 picks is a lot. But we know one of them is #22...if the other four are also in the 20s, how much is it really?
People say this after every massive haul of unprotected picks+swaps, and a surprising number of them go badly anyway.

Fwiw I'm totally fine with throwing out lightly protected picks/swaps if they're not bunched up OR if you're getting a superstar.

But these ones where you mortgage 5 consecutive drafts are so crippling so often, because you have no path to improve the roster if things go bad at all.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
27,123
If Gobert is worth 5 unprotected picks (not quite but close enough) what is the price for KD?
 

JM3

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 14, 2019
1,819
Remember when everyone got all upset about the #1 protected '28 swap? These are fully unprotected picks from the lol Wolves who will probably have both KAT & Edwards demand new homes in the next couple years because they also hate Gobert.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
26,759
Whoaaaaaaa. Hopefully he and KAT make it work better than AD and Cousins.
Or Embiid and Horford.

Maybe MIN so liked the way Greg Monroe played that they decided to go all-in on the concept. :)

KAT / Rudy are not Horford / TL or even Evan Mobley / Jarrett Allen. Starting lineup of Rudy + KAT + Edwards + Russell + McDaniels (I guess) is going to be challenging on both ends of the floor.

I'm dumbfounded.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,466
People say this after every massive haul of unprotected picks+swaps, and a surprising number of them go badly anyway.

Fwiw I'm totally fine with throwing out lightly protected picks/swaps if they're not bunched up OR if you're getting a superstar.

But these ones where you mortgage 5 consecutive drafts are so crippling so often, because you have no path to improve the roster if things go bad at all.

Minor nitpick but they aren't consecutive -- 23/25/27/29.

I just think saying "mortgaging 5 consecutive drafts" is misleading. If you include Langford and Nesmith, the Celtics will have blown up their draft 5 years in a row next year.

One of the Minny picks we know for a fact isn't a particularly valuable pick, because it has already happened. There's also a very good chance the 2023 pick will be in the same range. That leaves three picks for a team that has KAT singed long term and a 20 year old budding superstar, and the one furthest out is protected top 5. Take a look at this list of guys picked #6 (the absolute worst case scenario) in recent years and tell me how valuable a pick out of the top 5 is. Yeah, sometimes you get Paul Pierce but it's way more likely you get a guy is salary ballast 5 years into his career. Is their risk? Of course. Shit happens. But if the coaching staff can get this to work stylistically, they are contenders next year. If you want argue that Utah would have eventually settled for just 4 picks -- maybe that's true. But the hit rate on lower, mid level, and even lower lottery draft picks is low enough where I don't mind this for Minny in terms of value.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/6th-nba-overall-draft-picks
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,216
Toscana via Kyiv
Minor nitpick but they aren't consecutive -- 23/25/27/29.

I just think saying "mortgaging 5 consecutive drafts" is misleading. If you include Langford and Nesmith, the Celtics will have blown up their draft 5 years in a row next year.

One of the Minny picks we know for a fact isn't a particularly valuable pick, because it has already happened. There's also a very good chance the 2023 pick will be in the same range. That leaves three picks for a team that has KAT singed long term and a 20 year old budding superstar, and the one furthest out is protected top 5. Take a look at this list of guys picked #6 (the absolute worst case scenario) in recent years and tell me how valuable a pick out of the top 5 is. Yeah, sometimes you get Paul Pierce but it's way more likely you get a guy is salary ballast 5 years into his career. Is their risk? Of course. Shit happens. But if the coaching staff can get this to work stylistically, they are contenders next year. If you want argue that Utah would have eventually settled for just 4 picks -- maybe that's true. But the hit rate on lower, mid level, and even lower lottery draft picks is low enough where I don't mind this for Minny in terms of value.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/6th-nba-overall-draft-picks
Didn't they also include swaps in some intervening years? That's what I mean by "consecutive"; we all know the Stepien Rule.

The Celtics' situation is very different, because most future picks are unencumbered. This is the problem with mortgaging a ton of future drafts: as soon as something goes wrong, you are out of bullets to fix things, and you also can't tank, which is the other way teams gather high-value assets rapidly.

The issue isn't trading picks per se; it's that the downside is bad reflexively.
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
18,938
It's weird to me that we have these really talented big men like KAT, Davis, Ayton, etc. that don't want to play at Center despite the consensus agreement being that there teams would be better if they did.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,466
Didn't they also include swaps in some intervening years? That's what I mean by "consecutive"; we all know the Stepien Rule.

The Celtics' situation is very different, because most future picks are unencumbered. This is the problem with mortgaging a ton of future drafts: as soon as something goes wrong, you are out of bullets to fix things, and you also can't tank, which is the other way teams gather high-value assets rapidly.

The issue isn't trading picks per se; it's that the downside is bad reflexively.

I haven't seen anything about pick swaps.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,054
if you let a bird go free, and it comes back to you...

I don't know. It's something about being free though.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
27,123
People say this after every massive haul of unprotected picks+swaps, and a surprising number of them go badly anyway.

Fwiw I'm totally fine with throwing out lightly protected picks/swaps if they're not bunched up OR if you're getting a superstar.

But these ones where you mortgage 5 consecutive drafts are so crippling so often, because you have no path to improve the roster if things go bad at all.
Yep the KG/Pierce trade people here talked about how only the last pick had value... People said the same about the picks HOU got for Harden... Now he's gone and the team is imploding... Windows close fast and unexpectedly in the NBA
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,466
Yep the KG/Pierce trade people here talked about how only the last pick had value... People said the same about the picks HOU got for Harden... Now he's gone and the team is imploding... Windows close fast and unexpectedly in the NBA
On the other hand, they came within a 1/4 inch of (probably) winning a title and it took a global pandemic to cause the current mess. 30 out of 30 GMs make the deals Brooklyn made.
 
Last edited:

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
17,235
Yep the KG/Pierce trade people here talked about how only the last pick had value... People said the same about the picks HOU got for Harden... Now he's gone and the team is imploding... Windows close fast and unexpectedly in the NBA
Minnesota unexpectedly imploding? Stop talking crazy! ;)
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
5,134
Imaginationland
It's not the same situation at all, but the Gobert trade has me thinking about Joe Smith. 20+ years ago, the Wolves broke cap rules to try to sign Joe Smith (Joe Smith!) to a deal, and when they were caught the penalty was the loss of 5 1st round picks (later reduced to 3, I think). They lit a bunch of first round picks on fire to try to sign/retain Joe Smith(!), crippling their chances at putting a well rounded team around Garnett in his prime.

It's 2022 and for the first time since Garnett they may actually be a competitive team in the west with a couple of special young players, and they give away potentially 5 first round picks (at least 3) for a player who may be redundant. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
 

djbayko

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
20,648
Los Angeles, CA
Didn't they also include swaps in some intervening years? That's what I mean by "consecutive"; we all know the Stepien Rule.

The Celtics' situation is very different, because most future picks are unencumbered. This is the problem with mortgaging a ton of future drafts: as soon as something goes wrong, you are out of bullets to fix things, and you also can't tank, which is the other way teams gather high-value assets rapidly.

The issue isn't trading picks per se; it's that the downside is bad reflexively.
And teams just generally don't stay good and together for very long. Some do, but not all franchises are run well and shit happens. Someone's going to have a major injury or someone will want out because of locker room troubles or someone will demand a trade because he's not feeling loved. Then it all starts to fall apart. Taking a swing on a team's entire draft future 7 years out is a pretty good gamble if you have the GM stability to pull it off.
 

BigMike

Dope
Dope
Sep 26, 2000
22,794
It's not the same situation at all, but the Gobert trade has me thinking about Joe Smith. 20+ years ago, the Wolves broke cap rules to try to sign Joe Smith (Joe Smith!) to a deal, and when they were caught the penalty was the loss of 5 1st round picks (later reduced to 3, I think). They lit a bunch of first round picks on fire to try to sign/retain Joe Smith(!), crippling their chances at putting a well rounded team around Garnett in his prime.

It's 2022 and for the first time since Garnett they may actually be a competitive team in the west with a couple of special young players, and they give away potentially 5 first round picks (at least 3) for a player who may be redundant. History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
To some degree you have to credit/assume a GM knows what he is doing/has a plan. this is a plan to try to take those couple of really special talent players and win a championship with them in the next 3-4 years. Will it work? who knows, it may well blow up in their face. Without this deal they were a good team who might have had a 2nd round ceiling
 

tbb345

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
4,121
To some degree you have to credit/assume a GM knows what he is doing/has a plan. this is a plan to try to take those couple of really special talent players and win a championship with them in the next 3-4 years. Will it work? who knows, it may well blow up in their face. Without this deal they were a good team who might have had a 2nd round ceiling
I’d argue that they have the exact same ceiling after this move and they are now locked into this roster with no discernible way to acquire more talent
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,533
I don’t like any deal that trades away a half decade worth of drafts because the risk is so high, but overall I’m not nearly as down on this deal for the next 2-3 years as most here. Gobert can cover a lot KAT’s defensive deficiencies. The Wolves could very good next year.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
16,569
Somewhere
Any time you can trade your 1st round picks for nearly a decade for perhaps the 5th best center in the league (when you already have the 3rd best center in the league on your roster), you gotta do it.
Glen Taylor still calling the shots in Minnesota.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
27,123
On the other hand, they came within a 1/4 inch of (probably) winning a title and it took a global pandemic to cause the current mess. 30 out of 30 GMs make the deals Brooklyn made.
Sure, but there is a reason we say that you can't predict picks more than 1-2 years out... stuff happens, teams fall apart, guys have bad injuries, the guy who you thought would re-sign doesn't.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
26,759

ifmanis5

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2007
56,108
Rotten Apple

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,304
NYC
LOVE this signing. He was top o’ my list after Payton bolted; and I was actually googling him specifically like three minutes before the news broke. Would still rather have GP2, but DDV is a similar pest on D, brings a bit more shooting and playmaking, and (most importantly) came at half the AAV and fewer years (1 + player option v. 3). Very nice save by Myers. I wonder if the Kerr / Jay Wright connection played a role at all.

Good job on the Loon extension, too … came in $2-3M less than I expected. Still sad about losing Otto, but my hunch is they feel pretty confident Moody and Kuminga are both ready to take big leaps and absorb a lot of the Otto minutes.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,466
Sure, but there is a reason we say that you can't predict picks more than 1-2 years out... stuff happens, teams fall apart, guys have bad injuries, the guy who you thought would re-sign doesn't.

Right. Utah wasn't going to give up Gobert for a package of nothing. But non-prime draft picks are massively overrated. That's why the Celtics keep trading them away. If I have a problem with this, it's not that I think Minny loses out on drafting a potential all-star, it's that they lose fodder to make another deal like this. But we always say "whoever get the best player wins" in NBA trades, right? Well, if you had to handicap the chances that any of pieces in this deal turn out to be Rudy Gobert, what would you say? 10%? 15%?

And yes, I know there's a chance one of the picks turns out to be prime. Nothing is 100% without risk. But at the moment they have a 20 year old budding superstar and a 26 year old already superstar. Anything can happen but they are one of the safer bets to not bottom out in the next 5 years in the NBA.
 

Sam Ray Not

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
8,304
NYC
It’s been a terrible day here. I read this and laughed out loud so hard that my wife asked me if I was okay. Thank you and we’ll done, good Sir.
Aw shucks, thanks. That song is basically on a constant tape loop in the back of my brain, both from being a kid of the ‘70s and cos one of my most rewatched YouTube vids ever is the amazing, sun-drenched performance of that at Oakland Coliseum in summer of ‘77 (not even a big Skynyrd fan, but the ‘70s nostalgia is irresistible) View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=QxIWDmmqZzY
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
3,513
Saint Paul, MN
And when teams go small in the playoffs he’s unplayable.
This is untrue. Gobert can play out on the perimeter just fine. Utah's faults in the playoffs had nothing to do with Gobert's ability to play against a small ball lineup.

Everyone always questions what a team is supposed to do if the other team goes small. Everyone tried to put Warrior the Warriors death lineup. I respect a team saying fuck you. You try and go small against us and we will crush you with our two bigs. It may not work, but going small when you already have a big like KAT precludes that option anyway. So, yea, give it a shot
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,216
Toscana via Kyiv
If Utah can S&T for Ayton using a fraction of the draft capital from Gobert, that seems like a total heist. Pay about $10M less a year, finally have a center who can punish small lineups on offense, and have most of Minnesota's future drafts available to bring in a 3rd guy at some point.

Utah could re-tool this on the fly around Mitchell/Ayton pretty rapidly; I didn't think they could get out of the Gobert local maximum so cleanly.

Does Minnesota's future drafts + mortgaging their own get them into the Durant conversation? It has to at least be somewhat appealing to Brooklyn to totally restock draft capital for 7 years and build from there.
 

moondog80

heart is two sizes two small
SoSH Member
Sep 20, 2005
6,466
Does Minnesota's future drafts + mortgaging their own get them into the Durant conversation? It has to at least be somewhat appealing to Brooklyn to totally restock draft capital for 7 years and build from there.
I’d think getting Durant to want to play there would be the trick. Brooklyn doesn’t have to get his permission to trace him anywhere, but Utah won’t do it unless they know he wont just ask for another trade.
 

Smokey Joe

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2001
810
If Danny Ainge wanted KD, he would have used Gobert to get him. The Nets want high quality players (preferably young) rather then draft picks. Gobert would keep them relevant for a couple years at least.
 

ekim colorwaterpit

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
1,139
Minneapolis, MN
I absolutely hate this deal for Minnesota. I live in MN and watch a lot of T wolves. They were in the play in game this year after a long playoff drought. It's not like these picks (any of them) are guaranteed to not be lottery picks. I just don't think Gobert moves the needle for them at all and it sounds like Utah players hated him. There were far better ways to use that draft capital
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
9,216
Toscana via Kyiv
I absolutely hate this deal for Minnesota. I live in MN and watch a lot of T wolves. They were in the play in game this year after a long playoff drought. It's not like these picks (any of them) are guaranteed to not be lottery picks. I just don't think Gobert moves the needle for them at all and it sounds like Utah players hated him. There were far better ways to use that draft capital
Not to mention that they were bidding against themselves (at least at anything close to that price range).
 

Jeff Van GULLY

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
3,813
So later Windhorst mentioned that Danny got rid of Mitchell’s good friends on the team the past few days and intimated they were going to deal Mitchell as well. Other reporters say that Danny wants to keep Mitchell and build around him, but ultimately, that’s likely Mitchell’s choice.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-way deal between Utah/Phoenix/Brooklyn with this as the foundation:

Phx: Durant
Utah: Ayton
BKN: Mitchell
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
15,240
Santa Monica
I absolutely hate this deal for Minnesota. I live in MN and watch a lot of T wolves. They were in the play in game this year after a long playoff drought. It's not like these picks (any of them) are guaranteed to not be lottery picks. I just don't think Gobert moves the needle for them at all and it sounds like Utah players hated him. There were far better ways to use that draft capital
Agreed. It was a masterstroke by Danny. This could easily rank up there with the Nets heist. Minny just subtracted 3 rotation players for a 30yr old super maxed BIG past his peak. That alone is somewhat questionable (flexibility-wise), slapping every pick not nailed down and going ALL IN is mind-numbingly stupid.

Vegas has the T-Wolves with the 13th highest odds of an NBA Championship. They are a lot closer to the lottery than even sniffing a Western Conf Championship appearance (with perfect health) this season.
 

amfox1

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2003
5,949
The back of your computer
So later Windhorst mentioned that Danny got rid of Mitchell’s good friends on the team the past few days and intimated they were going to deal Mitchell as well. Other reporters say that Danny wants to keep Mitchell and build around him, but ultimately, that’s likely Mitchell’s choice.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-way deal between Utah/Phoenix/Brooklyn with this as the foundation:

Phx: Durant
Utah: Ayton
BKN: Mitchell
I like this version, with Mitchell staying in UTA:

PHX trades Deandre Ayton to UTA for Bojan Bogdanovic and 2023 1st rd pick received from BRK
PHX trades Bogdanovic, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, 2 PHX 1st rd picks and BRK's 2023 1st rd pick to BRK (via UTA and PHX) for Kevin Durant

UTA roster (post-trade):

PG Mike Conley, Pat Beverley, Jordan Clarkson
SG Donovan Mitchell, Malik Beasley, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Leandro Bolmaro
SF Rudy Gay, Danuel House, Jr. (if re-signed)
PF Eric Paschall (if re-signed), Jarred Vanderbilt
C - Deandre Ayton, Walker Kessler, Udoka Azubuike

That's a lot of guards for Danny to trade in order to rebalance his roster.
 
Last edited:

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
15,240
Santa Monica
So later Windhorst mentioned that Danny got rid of Mitchell’s good friends on the team the past few days and intimated they were going to deal Mitchell as well. Other reporters say that Danny wants to keep Mitchell and build around him, but ultimately, that’s likely Mitchell’s choice.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 3-way deal between Utah/Phoenix/Brooklyn with this as the foundation:

Phx: Durant
Utah: Ayton
BKN: Mitchell
PHX will have to give up a lot more than Ayton's signing rights since they have no interest in paying him