Offseason Priority: McCourty's Extension

[soxfan121]

Haven't seen it mentioned elsewhere but McCourty getting a 3M playing time escalator raise for 2014 bringing his cap hit from just over 2M to just over 5M next season.  Obviously means an extension becomes an even bigger no brainer, only downside is now McCourty has a little leverage which means the cost might go up a tick.

 
The 2013 PFF All-Pro pick at Safety, Devin McCourty:

McCourty wound up with our highest grade of the year, with his work in coverage the real standout element of his game.
 

 
Interestingly, 2013 was McCourty's worst raw statistical season, with lows in tackles, interceptions and passes defended. It was also the first season where he played exclusively at safety and the Small Sample Size advanced stats of 2012 that showed McCourty to be a potential All-Pro safety turned out to be predictive, both by the advanced stat test and the eye ball test. He played extremely well and the Patriots team pass defense improved measurably due to his efforts. 
 
As j44thor points out, McCourty got a major raise due to playing time escalators, making his contract extension an even bigger priority.
 
In 2013, the franchise tag number for safeties was $6.9M. It is likely to be that again in 2014.
 
Fellow 2010 first round pick and positional comparison, Earl Thomas of Seattle, will also be negotiating an extension this offseason and might have a market-setting effect on a potential McCourty extension. Buffalo's Jarius Byrd may also be a free agent, if he's not tagged again. Troy Polamalu & Eric Berry currently sit atop the safety paychart at over $7M/season but neither is a good comparison for McCourty as Polamalu is likely facing a re-negotiation due to declining play and Berry's salary is inflated by the previous CBA draft pick compensation. 
 
As a Team Captain and excellent on-field performer, it's highly likely the Patriots want to sign McCourty long-term. Aside from money there's only one other (probably inconsequential, but...) factor involved - Devin's twin brother Jason who signed a 5/$43M with $20M guaranteed extension with Tennessee in December of 2012. 

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

 
The 2013 PFF All-Pro pick at Safety, Devin McCourty:
 
Interestingly, 2013 was McCourty's worst raw statistical season, with lows in tackles, interceptions and passes defended. It was also the first season where he played exclusively at safety and the Small Sample Size advanced stats of 2012 that showed McCourty to be a potential All-Pro safety turned out to be predictive, both by the advanced stat test and the eye ball test. He played extremely well and the Patriots team pass defense improved measurably due to his efforts. 
 
As j44thor points out, McCourty got a major raise due to playing time escalators, making his contract extension an even bigger priority.
 
In 2013, the franchise tag number for safeties was $6.9M. It is likely to be that again in 2014.
 
Fellow 2010 first round pick and positional comparison, Earl Thomas of Seattle, will also be negotiating an extension this offseason and might have a market-setting effect on a potential McCourty extension. Buffalo's Jarius Byrd may also be a free agent, if he's not tagged again. Troy Polamalu & Eric Berry currently sit atop the safety paychart at over $7M/season but neither is a good comparison for McCourty as Polamalu is likely facing a re-negotiation due to declining play and Berry's salary is inflated by the previous CBA draft pick compensation. 
 
As a Team Captain and excellent on-field performer, it's highly likely the Patriots want to sign McCourty long-term. Aside from money there's only one other (probably inconsequential, but...) factor involved - Devin's twin brother Jason who signed a 5/$43M with $20M guaranteed extension with Tennessee in December of 2012. 

 
Awesome to break this out -- thanks sf121 (I assume "Offseason Priority: resigning Edelman" would be another good breakout topic).

 

[Super Nomario]

Nice analysis, SF121.
 

Interestingly, 2013 was McCourty's worst raw statistical season, with lows in tackles, interceptions and passes defended. It was also the first season where he played exclusively at safety and the Small Sample Size advanced stats of 2012 that showed McCourty to be a potential All-Pro safety turned out to be predictive, both by the advanced stat test and the eye ball test. He played extremely well and the Patriots team pass defense improved measurably due to his efforts. 

The raw stats don't mean anything to me - that's not what safeties (especially free safeties) do.
 

As a Team Captain and excellent on-field performer, it's highly likely the Patriots want to sign McCourty long-term. Aside from money there's only one other (probably inconsequential, but...) factor involved - Devin's twin brother Jason who signed a 5/$43M with $20M guaranteed extension with Tennessee in December of 2012.

I think the fact that it's his brother is largely inconsequential, but I could see this being a factor in so far as the pay scale for safeties is less than corners. McCourty has been a productive corner at times. While he might gladly move to safety for the good of the team, he might not be as thrilled with taking the financial hit commensurate with the move.

 

[wutang112878]

One big unknown with the potential McCourty extension is if he will bring up the position switch.  Will he ask for something above safety money because he was a good team player and moved to safety, especially considering he made the pro bowl as a corner.  This would certainly complicate negotiations.

 

[quint]

That was addressed in the post directly before yours, yes.

 

[mauf]

Seems like McCourty is a candidate for a 5-year deal with a big signing bonus that is designed to be renegotiated after year 3 -- sets up McCourty for life, gets the Pats a small cap # for 2014, and defers the cap pain until a time (2017) when the club's championship window will likely be closed. The Pats' ability to threaten him with a franchise tag at a surprisingly reasonable salary virtually guarantees that a deal will get done.

 

[JohnnyK]

I'm not sure the Pats can significantly reduce his cap number for 2014 unless a large part of the guaranteed money of such an extension comes in the form of roster bonuses (taking Weddle's deal as an example, he got 19 guaranteed, but "only" 13 as a signing bonus)  You could maybe get his cap # in the 3.5-range then, but it would cause quite some cap pain down the road, something the Pats under BB just don't seem to do.