Offseason Priority: Aqib Talib

Stitch01 · Jan 28, 2014

I would let him walk before I franchise him. Talib at $11MM is an absolute nightmare on next years cap.

Hopefully the market shapes up like last year and they can get him for one or two years. Im not sure what the medical reports will show, but if Talib's MRI is as bad as you speculate t would be hard to see a market for a big, long-term deal developing.

EDIT: FWIW, I put zero weight on the fact that he got hurt during the AFCCG as opposed to any other game. I do put a lot of weight on the fact that his hip doesn't appear to be able to hold up for a full NFL season.

Kliq · Jan 28, 2014

When Talib sits, out secondary just turns into a disaster. The game against Denver is a perfect example. Without Talib, Dennard has to move into the #1 slot, where he is usually overmatched, and then Arrington, who is solid in the slot but a nightmare anywhere else, has to go to the #2 where he makes a ton of mistakes, and then DMC runs himself ragged trying to clean up for everyone else.

When Talib is healthy, he is clearly a top CB. His lingering hip issues are both a blessing and a curse. It sucks that he is hurt frequently, but at least it is the same injury. That means if he was able to correct his injured hip, he would conceivably be much more healthy. I actually prefer that type of an injury as opposed to a guy that keeps getting hurt in multiple places. I feel like the Pats have to sign Talib, even if that means banking on him staying healthy. He has just worked himself into a position where he is just to valuable of a player for New England where he has a ton of leverage.

I looked into some advanced statistics for CBs and they seemed difficult to figure out. They are similar to the basic counting stats in that the best corners don't rack them up because other teams are not targeting them. Arrington and Ryan led the Pats in most categories, so that should tell you something.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Jan 28, 2014

I'm not sure you can discuss the plans at DB without discussing the plans for the pass rush. They are too intimately linked. Specifically I mean, that a starting duo of Dennard and Ryan does not seem as scary to me if the front 7 is able to get better pressure against the QB, particularly pressure without having to blitz a 5th or 6th rusher. I think it may be fair to say at the investment required to retain Talib could be used to upgrade more then one spot along the defensive line (particularly depending on how the market shakes up for some veteran pass rushers, Tuck, Phillips, etc...).

If you assume that Talib will not be playing several games next year, then your starting pair will be Dennard and Ryan (presumably). Working under the assumption that Dennard and Ryan will be the starters for some stretch of time then doesn't it become even more important to upgrade the pass rush? And if that is the case then I think the resources used to retain Talib would be better used elsewhere.

I agree that Talib is a true difference maker, but it scares me to build a defense under the assumption that he will be playing. My preference would be to use Talib's money to upgrade that front 7 and go in with Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, plus draft pick and cheap vet as your top 5 at CB.

Kliq · Jan 28, 2014

soxfan121 said:
You're paying the $10 when DRS sees this.

Probably. Admittedly I know very little about his health issues, I'm just assuming that there is a possibility that he could have corrective surgery and end up not having that much of a lingering issue. When you have a guy like Gronk, who naturally just seems to be susceptible to injuries in multiple places, it strikes me as being more unlikely that he is going to never be 100% then a guy with lingering issues in one location.

Super Nomario · Jan 28, 2014

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
I'm not sure you can discuss the plans at DB without discussing the plans for the pass rush. They are too intimately linked. Specifically I mean, that a starting duo of Dennard and Ryan does not seem as scary to me if the front 7 is able to get better pressure against the QB, particularly pressure without having to blitz a 5th or 6th rusher. I think it may be fair to say at the investment required to retain Talib could be used to upgrade more then one spot along the defensive line (particularly depending on how the market shakes up for some veteran pass rushers, Tuck, Phillips, etc...).

I think you need to do both. The pass rush has to improve, but you also need to have good DBs behind them. If you improve the pass rush but the coverage takes a step backwards, I don't think that's progress.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
If you assume that Talib will not be playing several games next year, then your starting pair will be Dennard and Ryan (presumably). Working under the assumption that Dennard and Ryan will be the starters for some stretch of time then doesn't it become even more important to upgrade the pass rush? And if that is the case then I think the resources used to retain Talib would be better used elsewhere.

I agree that Talib is a true difference maker, but it scares me to build a defense under the assumption that he will be playing. My preference would be to use Talib's money to upgrade that front 7 and go in with Dennard, Ryan, Arrington, plus draft pick and cheap vet as your top 5 at CB.

Talib is hardly a lock to play 16 games next year, but what DB is? Talib led the Patriots' CBs in snaps this year. Of the two Super Bowl teams, each had only one player with more snaps than Talib in the regular season - Sherman and Chris Harris, who is now on IR. If you start with a top three of Dennard / Ryan / Arrington, you're going to playing a bunch with Ryan / Arrington / X or even deeper. I'm not blind to Talib's injury history, but cutting depth further to rely on guys who have been just as injury-prone doesn't seem like the right alternative.

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) · Jan 28, 2014

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=CB&conference=NFL&year=season_2013&timeframe=All&sort=49&old_category=QB

Yahoo has stats with games played sorted by position. They do not have a metric for snaps played per game. But they have 72 CBs that played 16 games in 2013. Now this number undoubtedly includes 3rd and 4th CBs that likely get a handful of snaps per game and I do not know how they count special teams players. But if we use total tackles as a proxy for playing time, then there are 57 CBs that played 16 games and recorded at least 35 tackles. (I chose 35 because Logan Ryan had 35 tackles and I felt that he played a significant number of snaps). For reference there are 35 CBs that played 16 games and recorded 50 or more tackles.

It's not a great way to look at time played, but I'm surprised by the number of CBs that seem to have at least contributed to 16 games last year.

Reverend · Jan 28, 2014

soxfan121 said:
You're paying the $10 when DRS sees this.

If OFT sees it and responds, Nip might have to replace the server after it catches fire.

Stitch01 · Jan 28, 2014

The Washington Post expects the Redskins to target a cornerback in free agency and reports the team remains high on Aqib Talib.
Talib played for current Redskins DBs coach Raheem Morris from 2008-2011 when the two were together in Tampa Bay. When new Redskins coach Jay Gruden was hired, he kept Morris on his staff. The Redskins tried to go after Talib last offseason but didn't have the money due to cap penalties. Washington is out from under that and is now about $14 million under the projected cap.

From rotoworld. dcmissle's fears may prove prescient.

Talib is the hardest call I can remember for a Pats FA. I think its going to be very hard to lose him and upgrade the defense.

On the other hand, I get that building teams involves taking calculated risks but giving Talib a long-term deal and gambling on him being healthy and effective seems like a high leverage, crappy calculated risk. Particularly a long-term deal that beats out Dan Snyder looking for a new shiny thing.

Can't really franchise him given the cap hit without really rolling the dice at some combination of WR/DT/OL at minimum and/or severely compromising on depth.

Hate every option.

Super Nomario · Jan 28, 2014

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/stats/byposition?pos=CB&conference=NFL&year=season_2013&timeframe=All&sort=49&old_category=QB

Yahoo has stats with games played sorted by position. They do not have a metric for snaps played per game. But they have 72 CBs that played 16 games in 2013. Now this number undoubtedly includes 3rd and 4th CBs that likely get a handful of snaps per game and I do not know how they count special teams players. But if we use total tackles as a proxy for playing time, then there are 57 CBs that played 16 games and recorded at least 35 tackles. (I chose 35 because Logan Ryan had 35 tackles and I felt that he played a significant number of snaps). For reference there are 35 CBs that played 16 games and recorded 50 or more tackles.

It's not a great way to look at time played, but I'm surprised by the number of CBs that seem to have at least contributed to 16 games last year.

Per PFF, Talib was 42nd in snaps for CBs this year (not counting playoffs).

Toe Nash · Jan 28, 2014

One wild card not mentioned were his quotes before the AFC Championship:

“I’ve been in the NFL since ’08,” Talib said. “But I’ve really been in the NFL since November of 2012.”

“When you grow up and you want to be in the NFL, this is what you think of,” Talib said. “You think of this time right here on this team right here.”

http://bostonherald.com/sports/patriots_nfl/new_england_patriots/2014/01/aqib_talib_feels_all_the_love

Certainly money talks and in the NFL it's though to say no to a guaranteed payday when your career could be over at any point. But I wonder if Talib would take a lesser deal to stay (especially if the major competition is clownshow that is Washington or other noncontenders). Are there teams out there that are good that have cap room and a need at CB?

j44thor · Jan 28, 2014

A potential Talib replacement will be playing this Sunday in DRC. He has the length to cover the bigger receivers and is only 27yo with no significant injury history. He might not be quite as good as Talib at his best (though DRC was the 4th rated CB according to PFF this season) but he has been extremely durable for a CB starting 16 games 4X, 15 games this season and 13 games two years ago. He is probably going to cost between 50 and 65% of what Talib gets and is probably closer to 80-90% of the player Talib is.

Super Nomario · Jan 28, 2014

j44thor said:
A potential Talib replacement will be playing this Sunday in DRC. He has the length to cover the bigger receivers and is only 27yo with no significant injury history. He might not be quite as good as Talib at his best (though DRC was the 4th rated CB according to PFF this season) but he has been extremely durable for a CB starting 16 games 4X, 15 games this season and 13 games two years ago. He is probably going to cost between 50 and 65% of what Talib gets and is probably closer to 80-90% of the player Talib is.

Why would there be that big a discrepancy between their next contracts? They're both former first-round picks, they're basically the same age, and both signed 1-year, $5 MM deals this past offseason.

BTW, Talib played more snaps than DRC this year and in 2011 (DRC played more in 2012 and 2008-2010). Also, there's this weird story: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24422045/broncos-cb-dominique-rodgers-cromartie-pondering-retirement

j44thor · Jan 29, 2014

Super Nomario said:
Why would there be that big a discrepancy between their next contracts? They're both former first-round picks, they're basically the same age, and both signed 1-year, $5 MM deals this past offseason.

BTW, Talib played more snaps than DRC this year and in 2011 (DRC played more in 2012 and 2008-2010). Also, there's this weird story: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24422045/broncos-cb-dominique-rodgers-cromartie-pondering-retirement

Because Talib is seen as a "shut down" corner when healthy whereas DRC was largely considered the 2nd best CB in DEN this season.

DRC quickly back tracked on the retirement talk a day later adding that he would come back for a multi-yr deal. I'll be very surprised if they get identical contracts again this season.

Super Nomario · Jan 29, 2014

j44thor said:
Because Talib is seen as a "shut down" corner when healthy whereas DRC was largely considered the 2nd best CB in DEN this season.

DRC quickly back tracked on the retirement talk a day later adding that he would come back for a multi-yr deal. I'll be very surprised if they get identical contracts again this season.

Maybe not identical, but I'll be surprised if the spread as much as you suggest above.

Phragle · Feb 11, 2014

https://twitter.com/StevePalazzolo/status/433289739152920576

DaveRoberts'Shoes · Feb 11, 2014

soxfan121 said:
You're paying the $10 when DRS sees this.

Yeah, that made my head hurt.

If a guy keeps getting hurt in one joint but he's just predisposed to getting hurt there (tight hip flexor, adductors, whatever) and there isn't anything that can be structurally addressed surgically, that may be a problem spot moving forward. The fact that this has been a problem that's cropped up over several seasons would seem to suggest that either it can't be addressed surgically or Talib is reluctant to do so for whatever reason.

MentalDisabldLst · Feb 12, 2014

Are there PT techniques that would lessen the likelihood of injury, which we might assume Talib hasn't done enough of? Or is there nothing he could do that would substantially mitigate his risk of hip injury?

I'm asking for a friend...

DaveRoberts'Shoes · Feb 12, 2014

MentalDisabldLst said:

There is PT that can be done for this mind of chronic groin soft -tissue thing, but I have a hard time thinking he hasn't done a lot already.

Moosbrugger · Feb 12, 2014

Getting a virus warning with that Hamilton.

DaveRoberts'Shoes · Feb 12, 2014

Guess I'm stepping it up to a Jackson, then

MentalDisabldLst · Feb 13, 2014

Moosbrugger said:
Getting a virus warning with that Hamilton.

I've edited mine out; DRS (or a mod), please do likewise for your post.

dcmissle · Feb 13, 2014

DeAngelo Hall reportedly on the cusp of resigning with the 'Skins. That's a good move that makes sense. Unfortunately, it does not rule out a major run at Talib. Our hope lies with Bruce Allen to head off the kind of insane offer that would have Talib signed, sealed and delivered on day 1 of FA. That is something, as Allen has been prudent. But the cap space here worries me.

Offseason Priority: Aqib Talib

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