If they go WR, I'd also rather trade down and pick Nabers or Odunze. Chicago might cough up #9 and their 1st next year to pair MHJ with Williams, especially if they can get something for Fields. Maybe someone else wants to jump Arizona. They could create a nice bidding war.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I'm still interested in seeing what my Tulane binkie--Michael Pratt--does at the Senior Bowl next month. I see no reason why he couldn't be successful in the NFL. Edit: And, yes, I'd love for the Pats to draft him in the 3rd round
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wilson was up and down he refuses to throw over the milddie of the field lockes in on 1 or 2 reads scamblie around even when the pass blk holds up
GB was before J Love became a star
KC was off that day
Buff had buff not had 12 men on the field before the FG denver loses
Minn dobbs was awful
on your last part had payton not done the onside in week 1
fired up the Jets in week 5
and not called those timeouts in week 16
denver wins at least 2 of those
sutton is a all pro jerdy was a 1st round pick J Williams was a high 2nd round pick talent is there just up/down
I know Mayo said he will be judged on wins but realistically he is going to have a long leash. They want to go young and relatively inexperienced coaching. None of that says GFIN which is what you would be doing with Wilson and MHJ. Unless you think there are diamonds in the rough available at QB deeper in the draft.
Going against the grain when you have a top 3 pick seems nuts. Get the QB and get another QB in a later round and another one next year. This is a multi-year rebuild and they have to land a star long term QB for any of it to matter.
Going against the grain when you have a top 3 pick seems nuts. Get the QB and get another QB in a later round and another one next year. This is a multi-year rebuild and they have to land a star long term QB for any of it to matter.
Sure, could be. My general point is that they can take an elite WR (if not one of those two then Coleman, Thomas or even Bowers at TE) not named MHJ, and if they want to trade back they'll have good options. Being ahead of Arizona is very valuable.
But I agree with the consensus that they should just pick a QB and address other needs later. Sometimes going chalk is actually the right move.
I still think I’d rather them take the sure thing in MHJ
Definitely want no part of Mac Jones returning though.
Definitely want no part of Mac Jones returning though.
This is my feeling, this team needs so much on the offensive side of the ball that any QB they draft at #3 is likely to be the next Sam Darnold by the time New England has a supporting cast again. They really need someone like Atnalta to decide that Daniels or Maye is the guy and trade a raft of picks for #3 so that the Pats can build out the offense. You can always bring in someone like Minshew to tide you over.
The concern with trading back is that the Patriots, one hopes, won't be in position again to take a top QB prospect like this. Top 3 pick in a draft with, arguably, three quality upper-tier QBs. So it's not just a matter of, "Oh, we'll get MHJ now and then figure out QB later on."
The biggest problem with this approach is that with Minshew and a revamped offense, you end up in NFL purgatory for a while. You aren't winning a title or even going on a deep run with him, and you just ruined any chance of drafting a franchise QB for 2-3 years, at best.
You just take the QB at #3 and use 1-2 years to build around them like Philly, Miami, Buffalo with their young QBs. If you realize you got the wrong QB, you end up with another top 5 pick in short order and try again. San Fran built the other way, putting together a roster so stacked that they could plug and play a QB into the system. That team would look even better if not for the Lance pick.
I understand there's little appetite for drafting defense early, but if we were to trade down and pick up an extra Day 2 pick, I'd love either Braden Fiske, DT, Florida State or Junior Colson, LB, Michigan. There's a lot of defensive talent out there, and I question reaching for the 5th best TE or the10th best WR when we could draft one of these two, maybe in Round 3:
Colson, in particular, seems like a guy would have interested BB. Not sure if we're still in the market for 250lbs LBs though...
Colson, in particular, seems like a guy would have interested BB. Not sure if we're still in the market for 250lbs LBs though...
Any thoughts on Cade Stover, TE? Some reports I read suggest that he is both a great receiver, and very good blocker. And he seems slotted in around 90-ish on PFN.
I think he's mostly projected around the 4th? From what I've seen/heard his blocking is inconsistent, but decent, he's not really explosive, good but not great routes, good hands but not a big time catch radius guy. I know the PFF podcast guys were saying they like him as a TE2 and ST guy, just a solid contributor but not a key player.
The more I think of this the more I want MHJ and Bo Nix. I’m not a believer in Daniels, I don’t trust his arm and size, and MHJ seems like a very high percentage play at the second most important position. Nix I am just a big fan of, and I can’t for the life of me understand how he isn’t a consensus 1st round QB. 4500 yards, 51 total TD with 3 INT? I know it’s not the SEC, but yeesh.
He will require more work on the OL, but that’s a goal anyway.
He will require more work on the OL, but that’s a goal anyway.
If Mac Jones returns it is ONLY as a backup. They're not picking up his 5th year option, which means he's 1 and done if he stays.
I love Colson. Not 100% sure that he has enough athleticism to cover backs and TEs in the NFL, but maybe he does. He's a disruptor for sure.
I'm really of the mind that the better, long-term QBs, go in the later rounds. Obviously exceptions, but look at Brock Purdy.
PFN says "his ability to make high-difficulty adjustments - high and low point balls and get to passes behind him - is almost unrivaled in the 2024 class, and he has incredibly strong hands."
Somewhere else I had read that he was one of the better blocking TEs in the class.
But yeah, I guess if both those were true, he wouldn't be projected for a 3rd or 4th round slot. Too good to be true!
Honestly... probably good that he's a 4th round prospect, because that's around where we'll start considering TEs is my guess. Nothing wrong with a good solid TE who you can improve but isn't an elite physical talent. A good two way TE would be a real nice add that frees you up to use a more explosive TE as well, Even if he's a better Pharoah Brown.... real nice piece to get in the mid rounds.
Definitely an extreme one with Purdy, but given there are so many unknowns with
An extreme outlier, I agree. Just noting that we don't need a top 1st round pick for the QB to be successful in the league. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers both went late.
Did you mean someone else here? Rodgers was the second QB off the board at pick #24 and was considered a potential #1 pick in the draft.
PFN reranked their board (or at least a lot of them) and one of my favorite picks, LB Omar Speights, (based just on their write up) dropped over 100 spots.
Omar Speights logged over 300 total tackles in his career at Oregon State, before transferring to LSU. He's been underrated across that entire span, and he's one of the 2024 NFL Draft's biggest sleepers. At 6'1", 237 pounds, Speights is a rocked-up second-level defender with impressive mass. That mass amounts to great play strength both as a block destructor and a tackler. But Speights also brings quality burst, range, and short-area agility as a coverage defender, and he's very instinctive when managing the middle of the field. -Ian Cummings
Maybe they will eventually change their written evaluation, but how can THAT GUY be a projected late 7th rounder with that write up?
I need to learn to take all of this stuff with a very large grain of salt.
Omar Speights logged over 300 total tackles in his career at Oregon State, before transferring to LSU. He's been underrated across that entire span, and he's one of the 2024 NFL Draft's biggest sleepers. At 6'1", 237 pounds, Speights is a rocked-up second-level defender with impressive mass. That mass amounts to great play strength both as a block destructor and a tackler. But Speights also brings quality burst, range, and short-area agility as a coverage defender, and he's very instinctive when managing the middle of the field. -Ian Cummings
Maybe they will eventually change their written evaluation, but how can THAT GUY be a projected late 7th rounder with that write up?
I need to learn to take all of this stuff with a very large grain of salt.
Honestly, my ideal situation would be get a veteran QB, trade back and get BPA out of WR/TE/OT somewhere mid 1st, trade back into the end of the 1st, get McCarthy and get an OC/QB coach that's worth a damn. Bring along the kid slowly and ideally, he takes the starting job fall 2025. Get him in the 1st for the 5th year of control. He might have the lowest floor but given his age, his ceiling might be as high as anyone.
Bowers/Nabers/Coleman or whatever good tackle that falls with more draft capital to fill holes elsewhere. Interior OL needs help too. CB2 is questionable, and that's assuming Gonzalez is 100% next season and is the stud we saw before he went down. 80m cap space really isn't THAT much given the roster is swiss cheese.
Bowers/Nabers/Coleman or whatever good tackle that falls with more draft capital to fill holes elsewhere. Interior OL needs help too. CB2 is questionable, and that's assuming Gonzalez is 100% next season and is the stud we saw before he went down. 80m cap space really isn't THAT much given the roster is swiss cheese.
I think that he's a tweener. Not big or strong enough to play LB, not athletic enough to play safety. His college production is fantastic, but probably a guy who struggles against NFL players.
If they think Daniels really isn't as good as the hype, and if they feel certain Hardy, Penix, or Nix will be there in the second round, I think you just about have to take MHJ unless something crazy like Williams or Maye fall to them at 3. Or fuck it, get Wilson or Cousins and trade the 2nd for next year's 1st from a team you know is gonna suck next season and grab the QB project then. Or maybe instead of Cousins or Wilson grab Fields and see if he can be rehabilitated. Or even Lance. See if he can be fixed.
I don't think you can pass up on MHJ, if he is as good as people are saying. The whole 'he's worthless without a QB' stuff is silly because half the QBs in the league are only as good as they are because of the weapons they have; you give any QB a weapon like what they are making this kid out to be, then whoever is calling the plays will be just fine. The Pats are gonna be a defense first team anyway.
Plus, I want his dad to be forced to root for the Patriots, dammit.
I don't think you can pass up on MHJ, if he is as good as people are saying. The whole 'he's worthless without a QB' stuff is silly because half the QBs in the league are only as good as they are because of the weapons they have; you give any QB a weapon like what they are making this kid out to be, then whoever is calling the plays will be just fine. The Pats are gonna be a defense first team anyway.
Plus, I want his dad to be forced to root for the Patriots, dammit.
I think the Bears are going to take MHJ with 1st pick overall, and here's why:
- Bears are bullish. Beating the Lions late, and generally playing better after their defensive revamp midseason, they likely feel like they're a weapon away. MHJ is that weapon. If Fields shits the bed, so be it - you come back and get a QB in 2025. But there's a lot of optimism that they have most of what they need already.
- The Commanders and Pats don't need to trade up. They both need QBs, and all 3 top QBs are high-ceiling crapshoots. It's unlikely they'll look at any one of them as _the guy_, worthy of trading up, especially for cost of more picks that both talent-starved teams need.
- Arizona has their QB (or more to the point, Kyler Murray's contract basically requires him to be their QB the next 2 years). They would 100% take MHJ if he drops, but he's not worthy of burning capital to trade up, especially with the teams ahead of them not likely to take a WR. Since their OTs are both young and decent, I think they'll go with Brock Bowers, or trade back with someone who needs an OT and get WR2 or Bowers a smidge later.
Rodgers was pissed he went that "late", and that Alex Smith was the #1 overall pick.
Yeah, I do remember that... Rodgers has always had an attitude. Of course, that was also in an era where running backs commanded a premium, and three of the top five picks were used on that position. Today, a QB with Aaron Rodgers' raw talent isn't sliding that far.
I don't love the idea of trading back. Getting a top 3 pick is rare and I want them to use it. I realize there's a lot of holes to be filled, but I am traumatized from all the bad drafting. If you have a shot at a franchise-altering player, swing for the fences.
It's just really, really hard to end up with a top 3 pick. The Patriots were putrid this year, and even with that, many of us were sweating bullets down the stretch to see whether they would be able to pull it off. In general, my impression is that there is usually only 1 or 2 QBs in each draft (and sometimes none) that people think have the potential to be franchise QBs. Of course, there are occasionally others who come out of nowhere to be franchise QBs, even though they get picked in the - for example - sixth round, but counting on that would be ridiculous.
If the Patriots were to draft MHJ, and even send him out there with Mac Jones next year - honestly, my expectation is that team would likely win 5-7 games and be drafting in the 6-10 range with absolutely no hope of getting a franchise level QB. So, unless the Patriots really think that Maye and Daniels are both not really franchise potential QBs, I think they pretty much have to draft whichever one is left.
If the Patriots were to draft MHJ, and even send him out there with Mac Jones next year - honestly, my expectation is that team would likely win 5-7 games and be drafting in the 6-10 range with absolutely no hope of getting a franchise level QB. So, unless the Patriots really think that Maye and Daniels are both not really franchise potential QBs, I think they pretty much have to draft whichever one is left.
It is rare, and very valuable. I think you do one of two things--draft your QB, or trade down and fill multiple holes. I really would hate any other outcome.
I doubt they do unless they have scouts that hate MHJ AND the best QB available there or are blown away by an offer that still allows them to pick a player they love (say the Giants offer them 2024 and 2025 1sts.)
Yeah this is the case for QB 3, unless you HATE him as a prospect, he's the best chance you'll get at franchise altering. The case for trading back is basically.... if you really don't believe in QB 3 then you're not getting a franchise altering player there, no other position alters franchises.
I don't think MHJ would have any impact on wins/losses at all.
However.... I also think this team needed an insane number of things to go horrifically wrong to get a top 3 pick, even just a relatively healthy O-line and a fringe starter QB might get them to 5-7 wins next year, even if they trade out of that pick.
The problem with trading down is that there are few positions in the NFL (I’d argue zero positions) where an impact player can make such a transformative difference to your team. If we assume they get 3-4 picks for #3, the chances of landing even one elite talent is slim let alone one guy whose value comes close to a franchise QB.
Filling those holes is important. But in the NFL nothing is as important as QB. Even pretty good/not mega star QBs are very difficult to find.
Even if you could guarantee the Pats could turn that 3rd pick into a very good LT (Trent Brown on his best days), a quality WR (think prime Deion Branch) and a solid defensive player (Pat Chung, Trey Flowers, Mike Vrabel etc), the value of all of that isn’t worth giving up the chance of landing a franchise QB. And the reality is you’re not going to hit on all the picks you get in a haul, it gives you more bites at a worse part of the apple.
The assumption in the “trade down and accumulate assets” mindset is that you’re going to land multiple key pieces. But the draft doesn’t work like that. You might get one high end player, one guy who is solid and one guy who flops.
There seems to be the thought “Daniels might suck” so go draft Alt/Nabors (etc) and get some picks in rounds where the hit rate (high end starter) is even lower. But you’re just spreading your risk without the reward of - if they hit - having the most important position in pro sports filled by a star.
Trading down and accumulating picks makes a lot of sense when the max value of what you’re potentially giving up is less than or similar to the max value of what you’re receiving (late 1st to mid 2nd tends to have similar upside players for example)
If you have a lottery ticket with a 25% of winning 10M are you trading it for a ticket with a 25% chance at winning 5M + 2 tickets with a 10% chance of winning 1M?
The value of a franchise QB dwarfs everything else in the NFL to the extent that any trade, assuming you have a QB need, makes no sense. It would have to be a wildly and unthinkably rich offer or they’d have to have an extremely negative view on all of the QB’s in the draft for them to be able to justify trading down.
God, if they hate MHJ AND Maye/Daniels, trade back, and those guys don't bust...good lord.
I don't think the trade back people are arguing not to take a try at a QB. Nor would you have to be extremely negative on all the QBs to trade back.
Yes. But I was responding to a post that said if they "HATE" MHJ and the QB available. If your scouts HATE those players, man, you gotta be right with that take.
Here's a little game to play. Every year there are the top 5 QBs (whether they suck or not). Taking the top 5 for the last 4 years where would you place the projection of this years top 5 (Williams, Maye, Daniels,Nix and Penix) and rank the entire group
1.Young 2.Stroud 3. Richardson 4.Levis 5.Hooker 6.Pickett 7.Ridder 8.Willis 9.Corral 10.Zappe 11. Lawrence
12. Z Wilson 13. Lance 14. Fields 15. Jones. 16.Burrow 17.Tua 18.Herbert 19.Love 20.Hurts
1.Young 2.Stroud 3. Richardson 4.Levis 5.Hooker 6.Pickett 7.Ridder 8.Willis 9.Corral 10.Zappe 11. Lawrence
12. Z Wilson 13. Lance 14. Fields 15. Jones. 16.Burrow 17.Tua 18.Herbert 19.Love 20.Hurts
You should look at the top 12 QBs and their ages. We might have a different definition of "franchise QB", because if the Patriots are lucky the QB left by #3 will be a league average QB. They might be better served by the Niners' approach of loading the team so much that the QB position becomes plug & play for anyone other than a noodle armed panic pony.
Setting aside the fact that Purdy is much better than a “plug and play” guy and the fact that Josh Allen was the 3rd QB taken in his draft (as were Ben Roethlisberger, Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson), the idea that a roster can be so “plug and play” that any competent QB can take a team to a Super Bowl relies on way more things going right than simply nailing the QB
the 49ers have a hall of fame LT who they acquired for pennies on the dollar, a top 3 TE they found in the 5th round, an elite RB they fleeced Carolina for in a trade, high end and (still for now) cheap receivers they managed to hit on above the expected success rate, and a defense built up over 6 years including the 2nd overall pick, multiple mid 1st rounders and several late round studs.
If Purdy is truly a fungible easy to replace part, the 49ers better win soon because replacing their talent is going to need a ton of luck. There’s a reason the Schneider/Carroll Seahawks have won one playoff game in the last decade. Their success was built on a lucky or at least non-replicable run of finding building block talent in unlikely places.
Purdy is competent, put him on the Patriots and they’re still a four win team. Maybe a five win team. Neither Daniels nor Maye are giving me Josh Allen vibes. Who knows, maybe Caleb Williams gets busted on the eve of the NFL draft with an eight ball of coke and a car full of hookers and he’s still there at #3. But hope isn’t really a plan.
Unfortunately for New England the top QBs are all relatively young and not going anywhere anytime soon. Now if your argument is that Daniels is the next Purdy, sure, maybe. But by the time they surround him with enough talent he’ll be dead from all the hits.
Unfortunately for New England the top QBs are all relatively young and not going anywhere anytime soon. Now if your argument is that Daniels is the next Purdy, sure, maybe. But by the time they surround him with enough talent he’ll be dead from all the hits.
All valid points. Another way to put this is that the only way to have sustainable success is to have a franchise QB. Rottenburger, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Jackson, Burrows... They were or are able to keep their teams highly competitive through turnover elsewhere in the roster. Wilson couldn't do that in Seattle. Flacco couldn't in Baltimore. Remains to be seen if Purdy can in SF. So while you can build from the non-QB positions and make a run or two, you need the QB to have staying power and cover other weaknesses in the roster for any length of time.
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Neither would pre-draft Josh Allen likely (also his first 2 years he looked like he was going to wash out of the NFL). Prospects aren't finished multi-year pros. As an example... Maye would have gone #1 likely if he was eligible last year, he's generally seen as a better prospect than Stroud.... Stroud stepped in as a rookie and massively raised the fortunes of the Texans.
probably nitpicking but I think there’s a good argument that a competent (say top 20) QB would have won an additional 2-4 games with the Pats last year. The number of one score games or lopsided games which were only out of reach due to total QB failure was more than 1. A better QB, by any margin, probably wins at least 2 of the Philadelphia, Jets (2nd), Chargers, Washington and Giants games if not 3. Even if Purdy is a mediocre starter, there’s a significant gap between mediocre and what we saw Jones/Zappe provide last year.
Regardless of how high one is on Daniels/Maye, I think it would be unreasonable to think “top 15-20” QB isn’t in the realm of realistic outcomes for all of them. Obviously not what you hope for at 3 overall but there are plenty of outcomes which don’t result in a Mahomes/Stroud/Allen type of ceiling but do result in a meaningful upgrade.
Why the Patriots may be more likely to take a QB at No. 3 after the Senior Bowl - The Athletic
Some notes about the UNH RB Laube, Troy Brown likely not returning, and how Roman Wilson and Ladd McConkey looked good.
Not much more to this part of the article except saying Penix and Nix struggled some this week and if the Pats are going to look to the draft for a QB, thinking one of them might be the play is less likely now.
Some notes about the UNH RB Laube, Troy Brown likely not returning, and how Roman Wilson and Ladd McConkey looked good.
If that happened, I'm pretty sure he'd last until at least the Raiders picked.
I'm still hoping Daniels continues to get more hype and Maye is there at 3. As I've said before, and I'm most likely wrong, but I think he will be the best of the three.
Call it the "Tatum Feeling".
Barring something unexpected happening in free agency/trades with the Pats, Washington or Chicago, it’s going to be 10+ weeks of articles and tweets (etc) flip flopping between they will/won’t and should/shouldn’t take a QB at 3
we’re going to hear every possible permutation and every single one of the top 10 QB’s will make sense to someone
Which is really just to say, there will be likely be nothing informative about articles from the senior bowl, combine etc as far as the QB search is concerned - just speculation based on the same set of commonly understood ideas (good QBs in the draft, some guys outside of the top 3 that have some skill, Jones/Zappe suck, Harrison/Alt are great prospects at positions of need etc)
You could probably easily build an AI to write a different write up each week on what the Pats will do at QB and one of them will eventually be proven to be what they actually do.