Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
6,083
0.5 away from one of the biggest nights of gambling for me. Instead it’s just very good.

I had Celtics moneyline, Under (x3 units), Celtics ML + under parlay, VanFleet over 3.5 3s, Raptors under 109.5, Raptors under 108.5, Raptors under 103.5 (Fkkkk), Over 55 1Q (ty HRB), Raptors first to 10, Siakam over 1.5 3 (loss), Gasol under 14.5 totals (loss).

terrible loss for the Cs. And the 2nd night in a row I lose a decent chunk in the closing seconds.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Played a little Under 223.5 here. Nuggets defense is so different with Harris in the lineup.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
I wanted to do a long write-up on each game today but I’m not going to have the time. I don’t understsnd why these lines are what they are but that’s what a betting market is for. Here is what I have played already with how I’ve weighted tonight’s plays. Under in late game is best and I’ll be looking to add to it if opportunities present and especially at start of 4th.

* Miami +5.5 (1.25 units)
* Miami ML +180 (.5 unit)
* Miami 1H +3 (.75 unit)

* Houston +6.5 (.75 unit)
* Houston 1H +3.5 (1.25 unit)
* Houston 1H ML +170 (.75)
* Under 226.5 (3.5 units)
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Added a rare prop bet to my repertoire tonight.

* JaVale McGee +700 to score first pt of game.

Lakers have tremendous jump ball advantage and LeBron likes to get JaVale involved early. Sprinkled a bit on Davis +300 to get my wager back.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Great call, HRB. I love the usage of unit sizing to display conviction.
Thanks. It was a crush night. I even found an NHL spot by accident. Saw it 0-0 after 2P and was curious to see what the 3P Total was without ANY intention of wagering. Then I saw that the Golden Knights were -1.5 at PLUS 360!! Ummm ok, so go up 1-0 and in a G7 you know the goalie is being pulled with close to 3 min in the game. Bingo!!! That’s when you know you’re having a good night.

I began building my in-game Unders at 233.5 just inside the 4-min mark to the half, added 229 at the half and 220.5 entering 4Q. I passed on playing 4Q U54.5 preflop expecting to get no worse of a spread in-game and was correct as I got a 56.5 pt 4Q spread which is beyond outrageous value in a still competitive game with the Pace they had already began crawling toward.

What I wanted to say earlier was that it was funny how I had all but given up finding big edges as we progress in these playoffs and tonight you had, in my opinion, some numbers that were just so ridiculously off that it made me a little gun shy. I felt Miami “should” have been a 3-4 pt favorite but that they “would” have been getting 1-2......instead they were still getting 5.5 which I didn’t understand. FWIW, Miami is currently -2 in G4.

I had heard some talking heads today talk about how Houston was facing the same dilemma as Denver with one day off following a G7 win. The difference I saw was that Denver advanced solely on the miraculous performance of Jamal Murray who had left it all out on the floor several times in the last week. That level of intensity isn’t sustainable and we saw how a bad matchup turns out when you don’t have one guy dropping 50. Houston isn’t that type of “energy” team as they are more about execution and unlike the Clippers, the Lakers are a good matchup for them.

My best play was the Under in Hou/Lakers as these teams style of play in the 4Q figures to result in a snails pace. The last time these two teams met pre-Covid they combined for 42 pts in the 4Q and in their bubble game (w/o LeBron) they put up 37. When you factor the pace reduction of a playoff game, especially that of the 4Q, you’d have to have 3 extremely high scoring quarters to be in position to cover the 226.5. When you have the ball in LeBron and Harden’s hands, two scorers who thrive in half-court iso this number was 9 points higher than where I had it. G2 adjusted a little to 224 but not enough for stop me from unloading on it again in G2 and especially 2H and 4Q in-game once the game begins to pick up defensive intensity after halftime. Anyway, these were some of my thoughts pregame but I didn’t have the time/place to put it into words. Hope some of you tailed tonight.

Edit: One more thing. If anyone watched the opening tip and first possession you’d understand why I made that play on McGee. Lakers win an uncontested tip. LeBron swings it to Green who beats his man baseline and was looking for McGee’s man to double him to pass to an open JaVale for the dunk.....but his man kept him on his hip so Green hit the 5-footer himself. I will be coming back to JaVale in G2 for this prop.
 
Last edited:

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
127
I don't want what I'm about to say to be taken as a moral indictment of any nba player. I am talking strictly from a gambling perspective.

How much blood doping do you think is going on in the NBA, and more importantly, do you think the bubble could be interfering with some "routines." And if so, what impact might that have on how you look at various plays?
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
6,982
Kiev, Ukraine
I don't want what I'm about to say to be taken as a moral indictment of any nba player. I am talking strictly from a gambling perspective.

How much blood doping do you think is going on in the NBA, and more importantly, do you think the bubble could be interfering with some "routines." And if so, what impact might that have on how you look at various plays?
This would be the most amazing explanation ever for Bud not taking Giannis over 35 minutes.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
I don't want what I'm about to say to be taken as a moral indictment of any nba player. I am talking strictly from a gambling perspective.

How much blood doping do you think is going on in the NBA, and more importantly, do you think the bubble could be interfering with some "routines." And if so, what impact might that have on how you look at various plays?
From a gambling perspective you’d need evidence of one team having an advantage over another. It seems like any conclusion a gambler could come up with would simply be a blind guess. So for me, zero factor.
 

JCizzle

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 11, 2006
12,222
I wanted to do a long write-up on each game today but I’m not going to have the time. I don’t understsnd why these lines are what they are but that’s what a betting market is for. Here is what I have played already with how I’ve weighted tonight’s plays. Under in late game is best and I’ll be looking to add to it if opportunities present and especially at start of 4th.

* Miami +5.5 (1.25 units)
* Miami ML +180 (.5 unit)
* Miami 1H +3 (.75 unit)

* Houston +6.5 (.75 unit)
* Houston 1H +3.5 (1.25 unit)
* Houston 1H ML +170 (.75)
* Under 226.5 (3.5 units)
That under hit so easy - I wasn’t sweating it at all late game, which was nice.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
What you thinking tonight, HRB?
If I compared my level of conviction tonight to that of last night my biggest play today would be .25 Unit that is how much I’m blah here in comparison to last night. I’m unlikely to make a single preflop play while watching for some regression spots.

One I’m looking at is if Bos/Tor get into or above the mid-50’s in the 1Q to take a look at some in-game Under. If you have access to in-game 1H plays I’d really watch for this as these second units have really had trouble scoring......if not you’ll still have some good equity for the 2H.

Gun to head, Celtics win and Clippers cover. There is a real chance that the Nuggets have nothing left in the tank and get blown out again. Good stuff again tomorrow though.....I don’t see any reason why we don’t see the same results as yesterday.
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,728
Canton, MA
Made some nice money following HRB plays last night, thanks!

My only pregame action tonight is Jokic under 23.5 points. I like your idea of the Bos/Tor under in game if they put up some points early and will be on the lookout for that.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Made some nice money following HRB plays last night, thanks!

My only pregame action tonight is Jokic under 23.5 points. I like your idea of the Bos/Tor under in game if they put up some points early and will be on the lookout for that.
Nice!! Love hearing that.

Got some Under 217.5 after 1Q and more 213.5 after first TO in 2Q.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Slacked late night on a couple levels and it cost me. Family outing caused me to miss nice regression spot to the Under in Nuggets game early/mid-2Q. Saw the shit ton of points, glanced back up at the UFC fights (went 2-2, lost .75 unit), continued in convo as my brain didn’t activate. I blame family.

Second one was not pounding Under 224 in Rockets game when it was available, got one place at 224 early this morning, the others I’m in at 223. I’m seeing it already down to 221.5 now. Lesson learned....so I immediately max out the Cowboys -2.5 for next Sunday night while it remains under 3 (wrong thread?)


* I’m playing less volume on Miami today without having that loss window to cash with the points even though I think they sweep . I have one PPH site that sometimes puts out wacky lines (Ace23) so instead of laying 2 I’m getting 1 at normal juice. I’m playing some Houston again +5.5 but if the Lakers don’t come out like the Nuggets did last night to make a statement I will be unloading on Rockets in-game if the number is right. Ideally I’d want to see a one-possession game after 1Q to maintain that 5-6 point loss window to cash......I’m expecting this to occur.

* My primary play preflop is the Rockets Under again and looking for decent scoring early to fire more Under if game is tight and pace begins to slow. Not to beat dead horse but passing on 4Q pre Under of 53.5 as I can expect better number in-game or have option to pass. Good chance I unload on this again.

* Keep eye out for “Who will score first?” Prop. Scroll back to last game for my JaVale case which may be lightened with more added to Davis. Lakers will win the uncontested tip again and may look to establish Davis out of the gate rather than work their role players into the action. I didn’t see any “Which team will score first” on my sites G1 but it may have been because I forgot and checked too late. A buddy of mine swears he saw Lakers on the board for this prop. I’d guess anything under -200 is real good value here if you can find it.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Bookmaker.eu has Lakers to score first at -205 which I think is thin value. So I check my wacky Ace23 PPH and they have Lakers -150. Click...250 max. Davis is -310 and JaVale -700. Can Danny Green hit B2B at -850? Worth a sprinkle to hedge.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
6,083
* Keep eye out for “Who will score first?” Prop. Scroll back to last game for my JaVale case which may be lightened with more added to Davis. Lakers will win the uncontested tip again and may look to establish Davis out of the gate rather than work their role players into the action. I didn’t see any “Which team will score first” on my sites G1 but it may have been because I forgot and checked too late. A buddy of mine swears he saw Lakers on the board for this prop. I’d guess anything under -200 is real good value here if you can find it.
draftkings has first team to score as -110 for each team and JaVale at +800.

I grabbed under 245 (3units) in the Denver-LAC game in the 2nd and then went to bed.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
draftkings has first team to score as -110 for each team and JaVale at +800.

I grabbed under 245 (3units) in the Denver-LAC game in the 2nd and then went to bed.
Good stuff on the Under!! That -110 is DK not even trying.....sounds like an intern opening up in the am and being like, “2 teams to score first, 50/50 and we get juice.” What is the max they will accept on that and what state? You may not find better value the rest of year.....not sure how you could.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
6,083
Good stuff on the Under!! That -110 is DK not even trying.....sounds like an intern opening up in the am and being like, “2 teams to score first, 50/50 and we get juice.” What is the max they will accept on that and what state? You may not find better value the rest of year.....not sure how you could.
there is no max. I’m over 2k on it. NH
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
there is no max. I’m over 2k on it. NH
Jesus!! No line adjustment? So the sb mgr is that clueless to think you bet a tossup and he’s getting -110? My head just spun around

* Almost forgot why I came here. Just announced that Giannis will give it a go with his ankle which makes me load up more on the Heat here. My only fear was a non-Giannis flat spot. Playing Alt line of Miami -5.5 at +180. If the game goes as many 3-0 go the result typically doesn’t go down to the wire.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Well I guess if we’re all hammering Lakers to score first and Javale McGee...
I played Davis at +320 as well as JaVale at +760 so my expected return is lowered on JVG. It went from a fun little pizza money play in G1 to “Hey there is a rea edge here let’s gambol!!”

Just out on bookmaker.eu I am -1250 to be in Seabrook, NH on Tuesday to deposit if that number is still there for G3.

* While we are discussing props.....keep a lookout (and remind me) for Kemba’s Point Total tomorrow afternoon publicly criticizing himself for only taking 9 shots and needing to be more aggressive on Monday.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Can't believe the line was Miami -2.5 down 2 at halftime with Giannis injured. Loaded up on that.
I actually played the other way. I felt the only chance the Bucks had was with the “play better without your star” affect with the Heat taking foot off the gas. Not a lot just a little hedge since I went heavier preflop than I anticspted once found Giannis was playing.

* Into props now lol. Expect LeBron and Davis to be more ball dominant and aggressive. Played Over 5.5 FTM LeBron (-110) and Over 6.5 FTM Davis (-110). Enough equity in both going over than nothing under to risk the juice (60/40? 65/35?).
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,728
Canton, MA
I actually played the other way. I felt the only chance the Bucks had was with the “play better without your star” affect with the Heat taking foot off the gas. Not a lot just a little hedge since I went heavier preflop than I anticspted once found Giannis was playing.

* Into props now lol. Expect LeBron and Davis to be more ball dominant and aggressive. Played Over 5.5 FTM LeBron (-110) and Over 6.5 FTM Davis (-110). Enough equity in both going over than nothing under to risk the juice (60/40? 65/35?).
Looks like you had the better read on this one. Nicely done (again!)
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
I’ll have to check but it seems like the only two shots the Lakers missed that quarter were the first two. FML
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,728
Canton, MA
Picked up some in game Rockets +15.5 1H and +13.5 1H. Still licking my wounds from Miami. Hope they keep it within a couple touchdowns here.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Picked up some in game Rockets +15.5 1H and +13.5 1H. Still licking my wounds from Miami. Hope they keep it within a couple touchdowns here.
Nice spots. I didn’t touch any in-game Rockets only Under 236.5 at top of the 4Q and more 236 with 7 min to go. This was about the only bright spot of a rough day. I had mentally already given the game total an L until I realized this morning how close it was and that there was a clear path to the Win column late. Had the official swallowed his whistle (or Westbrick not taken a dive) with 90 sec left it likely would have come down to RWB doing RWB things on that break. Lakers get a top there we probably get the Under back there. Insane considering the Laker barrage of 3’s and the Rockets 41-pt 3Q......and the number is even higher for G3 at 225.5. Tomorrow should be fun.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Played Raptors -6 2H (effective +21)

edit:changed to -6....wish it was +6. Was considering over 107 2H but don’t fully trust Celtics replicating 1H. Pace should be there though.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Played Raptors -6 2H (effective +21)

edit:changed to -6....wish it was +6. Was considering over 107 2H but don’t fully trust Celtics replicating 1H. Pace should be there though.
5 missed shots at the rim on two possessions in final 2 min with all 3 missed tips uncontested. Then Matt Thomas beats his man off the dribble for the layup to cover.....and it bounces off his foot out of bounds. Not a big play but watching it was brutal lol.
 

djbayko

Well-Known Member
Gold Supporter
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
13,988
Waltham, MA
FYI - 5Dimes is leaving the US market.

UPDATE: Not sure if this helps anyone. Personally, I stood to lose a shit ton of money from this as I have over $25,000 in futures that have accumulated a great deal of equity. So apparently, you can request to have your 5D balance and pending future wagers transferred to a new BetAnySports.eu account, which they pretend is a separate company under separate ownership. Don't create an account if you don't have one, as they will do it for you.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
In a matter of days the Heat went from +6 to -1 w/Giannis and now after playing better w/o Giannis (see: Theory, Ewing) are -4 when it’s assumed Giannis is out. On top of all this the public is hammering Miami.

* No Giannis - Pass preflop on the side (slight lean Bucks +4). Observing how Heat respond and looking for an in-game spot on Bucks if it’s there. Playing Over 218 as the flow was much looser once he left game in G4.

* With Giannis - Expect line you adjust closer to Pk maybe Heat -1 and would fire on Heat pretty good. Passing on Total.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
* Looking for Rockets to make adjustment in how they defend Rondo setting up guys like Markieff Morris hitting 4 straight 3’s. Played Rockets +5 and some money line. Also looking at a 1Q or 1H Rockets ML play. Probably end up weighting side about 1/2 the size of Total on this one preflop anyway. Once I (likely) 2H and 4Q in-game Under it will lean heavier toward the Total.

* Played Under 225.5 when this number came out at one place and played more at 224 at other once it was posted. Bet down to 222 currently so nice value win here. Now that both teams have had a chance to see what the other is looking to do offensively I think this game has a real chance to finish closer to 200. Late 3Q both teams combined to hit 50% of their 3’s prior to end of game pace stalling and that number finishing closer to 40%. I don’t expect a repeat of this type of 3-pt shooting in the first 30 min in their 3rd matchup knowing what each is looking to do......I’ll be shocked to see as many uncontested 3’s as last game. Of course will be looking for 2H Under and 4Q in-game Unders.

* Props!!!! Got Lakers -155 and -160 to score first. My math has this around -225 so it’s a no-brainer value play for me. As for who will score first, I thought they could go to AD off the tap last game to establish him but they stuck with what they have done all year......LeBron looking to get JaVale involved or one of the wings running something with JaVale. Using Units to show how I balanced the play...... JaVale +700 (2.5U), Green +900 (1U), and KCP +1050 (1U). We really should cash a couple of these in this series unless very unlucky.
 

SteveF

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
127
Are we sure JaVale is starting? It looks to me like the Lakers believe they are better with Davis at the 5, plus he's got that ankle thing.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Are we sure JaVale is starting? It looks to me like the Lakers believe they are better with Davis at the 5, plus he's got that ankle thing.
JaVale has started all 75 of the Lakers games this year. I can’t imagine Vogel making a change following a playoff win. He’s officially listed as “Questionable” due to his ankle injury so if he doesn’t start I can’t imagine him playing in which case it would be a voided wager.

It could def change the dynamics of that first possession since I don’t have the other role player covered and obv their set involving JaVale wouldn’t occur.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,094
Giannis officially out tonight and the line shoots up to -5.5. This is setting up perfectly for the Bucks to have an “Us against the world” mentality if this is truly what they want. This could turn out to be a fascinating series.......or a dud. Doubt there is an in between.

* Played Over 109.5 1H pretty good here.

——-Began post by writing Giannis and it autocorrected to “Hinkie.” Read into this as you wish.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
6,083
Lakers still a -110 first to score on DK. I'm not in the mood tonight but that prop is still hammerable.
trust the process. It was there last time. Would you take a wide open 5 footer for +800? Or an AD shot for 50/50?

back in, same amount with a little extra on JaVale.