Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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No time to write up this Jazz game.

I played Utah hard here for the game -3 and sprinkled in some 1H -1.5. I also did something I never do but for kicks played a 4-team parlay, Raptors 1H, Utah, Over 216 Utah, and left the 4th slot Open to fill with Bucks 1H when it comes out after I’m 3-0 :)
 

HomeRunBaker

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These bubble playoffs are so unique with the underdog not returning home while still having to find a way to adjust to the better team in the same environment. I’m looking at teams in Brooklyn (and Orlando) as two teams who mentally have to be about checked out now KNOWING that they have zero chance to advance or even win another game (losing Joe Harris was a huge blow). Psychologically they wouldn’t seem to be able to sustain a 48-min effort against the superior team. We saw both have long droughts, both offensively and defensively in their last game and being one game closer to leaving the bubble I cannot fathom either being able to muster much resistance which should lead to longer Raptor and Bucks runs. We’ve also seen both favorites take their foot off the gas in their last so here is my game plan today with the Raptors. You can pretty much copy and paste it with the Bucks tomorrow. I’ll use “units” to best describe my bankroll strategy for these games.

* Raptors -8 1H (1 unit)
* Raptors -13 FT (2 unit)
* Nets hedge/middle either 2H or 2H in-game (between 1-2 units)

I’m looking to lock in a 1H win while seeking a spot to add another .5-1 unit win while creating a huge middle opportunity along with hedging the backdoor cover.
Got some luck back to sneak the 1H number in.
Took some Nets at +23 just now for what amounts to maybe .75 of a unit leaving me flexibility for later. LFG!!!
 

djbayko

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Bovada is the McDonald's i think. It's safe and quick. And very quick if you use bitcoin
Yeah, @ugmo33 I would probably recommend Bovada for any beginner. You're going to be relatively safe with any of Bovada, BetOnline, Bookmaker, 5Dimes, or Heritage. BetOnline is my favorite by far. I would always recommend using bitcoin to deposit/withdraw. It removes so many potential headaches. I do understand why someone might not want to learn the world of crypto just to place a few bets, but if you think it's going to be more than a one time thing, it's definitely worth it.
 

ElUno20

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Yeah, @ugmo33 I would probably recommend Bovada for any beginner. You're going to be relatively safe with any of Bovada, BetOnline, Bookmaker, 5Dimes, or Heritage. BetOnline is my favorite by far. I would always recommend using bitcoin to deposit/withdraw. It removes so many potential headaches. I do understand why someone might not want to learn the world of crypto just to place a few bets, but if you think it's going to be more than a one time thing, it's definitely worth it.
Real quick. You can buy btc anywhere (even cash app)--> send it to a wallet (like a breadwallet or blockchain)--> then send it to your book.
 

djbayko

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Real quick. You can buy btc anywhere (even cash app)--> send it to a wallet (like a breadwallet or blockchain)--> then send it to your book.
Yeah, the middle wallet is important. Otherwise, financial institutions such as Cash App, Coinbase, or crypto exchanges might ban you, as they're not allowed to transact with offshore sportsbooks. They won't detect this every time, so don't get cocky and think that you're cool just because you sent a few deposits directly from Coinbase without a problem.
 

HomeRunBaker

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HRB screwed on Jazz -3.5. TT easily over 110 at least.
Utah and 2H Celtics. Bet on sports they said. It will be fun they said.

* Revert back to my Raptors post for the Milwaukee early game. Approaching it and playing it exactly the same. Ironically the numbers are pretty much identical right now.

* I think the longer a team faces Houston the easier it is for them to adjust to their unique style. I like OKC to even up the series and will gladly take the 3.5 as a bonus.

Edit: Just remember that I had a +140 ML parlay ticket w/Celts, LAC, Raptors and Jazz. Did I really get beat today on 3 separate three-pointers at the buzzer? That is incredible.
 

ElUno20

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Yeah, the middle wallet is important. Otherwise, financial institutions such as Cash App, Coinbase, or crypto exchanges might ban you, as they're not allowed to transact with offshore sportsbooks. They won't detect this every time, so don't get cocky and think that you're cool just because you sent a few deposits directly from Coinbase without a problem.
Exactly. It's an extra step but worth it
 

shawnrbu

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Bucks up 14 with 37 seconds to go. Line was 13. Amazing how often it comes down to the last minute.

Edit: Magic only team in the NBA that fouls down 14 with 19 seconds to go. Villanova makes 1 of 2.

Terrence Ross misses from 3 and Bucks win by 15. That would have been a cruel dagger.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Bucks up 14 with 37 seconds to go. Line was 13. Amazing how often it comes down to the last minute.

Edit: Magic only team in the NBA that fouls down 14 with 19 seconds to go. Villanova makes 1 of 2.

Terrence Ross misses from 3 and Bucks win by 15. That would have been a cruel dagger.
I was anticipating 4 three-pointer buzzer beating losses in a row. It was shaking up with the foul on DiV down 14.

* OKC +3 here and added an OKC series at +370. The correct series prices were down when by the time I decided to look at the series prices. Would love to have seen what OKC in 6 was paying for a flyer with some pizza money.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Passing preflop on Pacers/Heat. Much like the Jazz have shown to be the superior team in their series the Heat have done the same. I have no interest in laying 6.5 points against a desperate team who feels they are the better team and don’t want to be sucked in on playing the Pacers either. So we wait until......

* Portland +7 along with some money line and series sprinkle. Lakers has their opportunity to show me on Saturday that G1 was an Orlando/Milwaukee G1 where they were caught off guard but their flaws appear very real. Great value here and as always looking to play an in-game Under at start of 4th should the Lakers hold a small lead where they control pace.
 

HomeRunBaker

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* Portland +7 along with some money line and series sprinkle. Lakers has their opportunity to show me on Saturday that G1 was an Orlando/Milwaukee G1 where they were caught off guard but their flaws appear very real. Great value here and as always looking to play an in-game Under at start of 4th should the Lakers hold a small lead where they control pace.
Uh...yeah...ok. We’re on to Cincinnati.

* I’ll be coming right back bigger and better with Utah -3 for piles! Nuggets played as well as they can play with Murray being about as hot as he could be......and they still lost. I still feel these numbers should be -7 or -7.5 as the Nuggets have too many defensive holes for the Jazz to tatget with pick n rolls. Murray’s shooting isn’t sustainable however Mitchell creating switches and angles to get to the rim absolutely is. Even if the Nuggets can keep it close in the 1H they don’t have answers against the Jazz half court sets in the 2H.

* I’ll once again play some Over Utah TT expecting it to be 111 when it comes out in the morning. I’m also going to include a little 1H -1.5 to the mix.
 

ElUno20

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Uh...yeah...ok. We’re on to Cincinnati.

* I’ll be coming right back bigger and better with Utah -3 for piles! Nuggets played as well as they can play with Murray being about as hot as he could be......and they still lost. I still feel these numbers should be -7 or -7.5 as the Nuggets have too many defensive holes for the Jazz to tatget with pick n rolls. Murray’s shooting isn’t sustainable however Mitchell creating switches and angles to get to the rim absolutely is. Even if the Nuggets can keep it close in the 1H they don’t have answers against the Jazz half court sets in the 2H.

* I’ll once again play some Over Utah TT expecting it to be 111 when it comes out in the morning. I’m also going to include a little 1H -1.5 to the mix.
Utah TT is 111.5
 

HomeRunBaker

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Utah TT is 111.5
Wednesday action:

* Lakers were briefly on the board at -11 when this shop assumed Lillard was done. With the “inconclusive MRI” report they took it down not risking that he may be able to play. Not sure they can make a big enough number to generate Blazer action on this one after that checked-out performance.

* The Bucks seem to be thinking of the next round once they go on a run while the Magic, as limited as they are, continue to play for 48 minutes. It’s Orlando -+14 or pass preflop for me with this one sure to present something in-game (play or middle) either prior to an anticipated Bucks run or following a Bucks run. Taking a look at the Over as well in a lopsided talent elimination game. Even with the very slow start yesterday it ended as a push or win depending on number.

* OKC gets more comfortable attacking Houston as this series goes along. They appeared to me to be the better team in this series prior to last game and nothing I saw in the G4 win leads me to believe otherwise as they have adjusted to the Rockets unique style very well. I think they win the series and could even win out in 6. So I’ll gladly take the generous field goal with OKC in this one.
 
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NoXInNixon

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Dallas is +280 to win the series. That seems like a good bet.

Celtics are +130 to beat Toronto.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dallas is +280 to win the series. That seems like a good bet.

Celtics are +130 to beat Toronto.
Saw an early Miami +430 vs Milwaukee on one site. Pizza money at work right here. Why not, I’m gonna to be taking the 8 points in each game for as long as they let me until it adjusts.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Uh...yeah...ok. We’re on to Cincinnati.

* I’ll be coming right back bigger and better with Utah -3 for piles! Nuggets played as well as they can play with Murray being about as hot as he could be......and they still lost. I still feel these numbers should be -7 or -7.5 as the Nuggets have too many defensive holes for the Jazz to tatget with pick n rolls. Murray’s shooting isn’t sustainable however Mitchell creating switches and angles to get to the rim absolutely is. Even if the Nuggets can keep it close in the 1H they don’t have answers against the Jazz half court sets in the 2H.

* I’ll once again play some Over Utah TT expecting it to be 111 when it comes out in the morning. I’m also going to include a little 1H -1.5 to the mix.
Looks like I’m on the sucker side of this one. Utah the huge public play with a reverse line move to Denver. I like being on the side of the eyes and the models but we’re going with the eyes only on this one!! Old school style LFG! :)

Edit: Final thought on this. I view this series similar to Miami-Indiana and the Pacers got the sharp money yesterday which I have no issue with as to me the number was fair. My confusion tonight comes with the number as you aren’t getting the 7 or so that I feel uuu deserve with Denver but 2.5 which is needing a win or down to a final possession. If this number was 7 or even 5-6 I wouldn’t be touching it just as I didn’t touch yesterday’s Heat-Pacer game.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Used my small Utah 1H and sent it on the 2H +2 (-7 for game). I think this could be a 25-pt win with a good 3Q start.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Blazers shooting 74% from 3. Fading all their totals, took LAL -5.5 in game.
Well done. So weird. My only plays on this game was in the 4Q that I split after the Blazers tied it up.....I also layed 5.5 and the under w in a correlated idea of the Lakers defense scheming to take the ball out of CJ’s hands. I forgot that the Lakers secondary rotations were already thinking of the next series. Today I’ve got.....

* Over 216.5 Bos/Tor
* Utah -2.5
* In-game looking for Mavs spot (playing on Clips level of interest and propensity to squander double digit leads)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Numbers are so sharp nowadays. A decade or two ago you’d be getting 8-10 points with the Heat in these first two games without as much effect from the three-point shot, essentially 4+ possessions. Today you get 5.5 and less than 2 possessions. This is still good value as I think they win at least 1 of the first two as well as the series.....but it’s an example of how tight the numbers are in 2020.

EDIT: Here is an example of how much of an idiot I can be. I’m forgetting there is no homecourt in these playoffs which is what caused this discrepancy in the number. I like Miami even more now that I’ve had my coffee.

The high volume plays of Round One are gone until whenever the next Round One is played. There just isn’t much of an edge the deeper we go so with proper discipline comes many fewer plays. I miss Round One already.

* Having said all that. I’m playing Heat ML +185 in G1 and likely coming back with same in G2 regardless of result.
 
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Red Averages

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I’m taking the under + Mia points parlay. Look these two teams shot a combined 43% from 3 in game 1, and scored 219 points. No we’re in game 2, when the teams should have a better sense of strategy/matchups they want to get into/avoid, which I’d think slows the game down/reduces scoring. Yet the O/U is 222.5. Plus, I’d expect another close game with this more of a coin flip series. So I’ll take the 37% implied odds that I’m right on both.

I’m saving a lot of room for in game if I see an opportunity to fade quick scoring or in game runs given my bias for the under and a tight game.

edit- lines are moving against this view so I’m likely going to be proven wrong, but we’ll see.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah. I’m in a rut. I need some HRB guidance here.
Ah just logging on now was busy all day. I don’t see any reason why Miami doesn’t win again. Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t think the Bucks are the better team. I’ve got them dead even or a tiny lean to the Heat. Played then with 6 and money line again.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hrb, miami is up to +6. Do i sell my son frozen in carbonite on it?
I probably would have taken half of your son and taken the Heat the the 6 and taken the other half on OKC +5.5. The problem is if you split you have to put him back together which could get messy......so a parlay was clearly the way to go!
 

HomeRunBaker

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Dammit! Too late to the party
Sorry man. The party isn’t in the books yet.

Much like Joe Sixpack I hedged some. Played Bucks at Pk live late 2Q for same amount as my Heat ML so I’m free rolling the rest of the +205. Keeping my +6 intact.
 

BigSoxFan

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Sorry man. The party isn’t in the books yet.

Much like Joe Sixpack I hedged some. Played Bucks at Pk live late 2Q for same amount as my Heat ML so I’m free rolling the rest of the +205. Keeping my +6 intact.
Could still go live bet but odds have adjusted a bit. I may just sit this out.

Thoughts on Houston? That’s such a volatile team. Hard to know.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Could still go live bet but odds have adjusted a bit. I may just sit this out.

Thoughts on Houston? That’s such a volatile team. Hard to know.
I like OKC a lot here. To win the game. Getting the points makes me like them even more. Played game similar to this one.....+5.5 and +185 ML. Also a little Under as well and could add more in-game once we get into the 2Q if there are some points scored.

Rockets are not built for a G7 type game and they may be a better team without Westbrook as he takes the ball out of Harden’s hands too much for my liking.
 

HomeRunBaker

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This game beginning to get that “grind it out feel” to it. Played Under 232.5 in-game after that Lopez 3.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Always been a Chris Paul fan from when he was a 17-yr old on the Greensboro Gaters AAU team.......but after that flop to get me the 1H cover +3.5 I love him even more!
 

Red Averages

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I had Miami stacked with +6 & under 222 parlay. Money line. -1, -2.5 (+350!) under 232 under 235

that 3 point foul at the end blew up my 2.5... cost me $2000. Thankfully Jimmy Butler decided to hit the 2nd useless FT to win by 2.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I had Miami stacked with +6 & under 222 parlay. Money line. -1, -2.5 (+350!) under 232 under 235

that 3 point foul at the end blew up my 2.5... cost me $2000. Thankfully Jimmy Butler decided to hit the 2nd useless FT to win by 2.
Sick finish. I went from sweeping the game to watching Butler do his best JR Smith impersonation to put me in danger of GETTING swept if the official doesn’t make that call on Giannis and the game goes to OT. Insane finish.
 

HomeRunBaker

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OKC is down 3 with the ball and 6 min to go. One off my outs baited me into buying some Thunder money line at +260. Hey, value is value.
 

SteveF

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Has anyone taken note of these O/U in the Celtics-Raptors series? They were 216 the past few games, which I thought was too high. I'm looking at the number now and it's 217? The series has been a rock fight. Someone must know something I don't.
 

Red Averages

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Has anyone taken note of these O/U in the Celtics-Raptors series? They were 216 the past few games, which I thought was too high. I'm looking at the number now and it's 217? The series has been a rock fight. Someone must know something I don't.
Yes. It's coming on the Toronto side.

I took Celtics + under individually and as a parlay and I'd partially hedged that by taking the over on VanFleet 3.5 3s (+144) and Ibaka over 1.5 3s as a bit of a hedge. I suspect the Raptors win if VanFleet gets hot, and given the videos we've seen would expect him and Ibaka will continue to get looks.

I also took the under on Gasol again (14.5 for points/rebounds/assists).

will look to see how the game is and bet more in game. I'd expect it to be close, so likely to fade moves in either way, but obviously maintain a Celtics bias.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Has anyone taken note of these O/U in the Celtics-Raptors series? They were 216 the past few games, which I thought was too high. I'm looking at the number now and it's 217? The series has been a rock fight. Someone must know something I don't.
I don’t know if this series is as much of a rock fight as it is Toronto missing shots that they ordinarily make. The Raptors “Big 3” of Lowry, Siakam and FVV short 3-19 from 3 in G1 with a ton of misses at the rim and shot 3-23 from 3 in G2. This seems like a terrible matchup with the Celtics when you factor in the reg season bubble game but I’d have to think that the Raptors aren’t going to continue shooting in the teens from 3 which affects all other aspects of their offense.

* I lean to the Over 217 tonight but especially like a lot the Over 55 in 1Q with Toronto looking to create opportunities early in the shot clock as the aggressor.
 

ElUno20

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Ok. Im back from the dealership. I just sold the wife's car to put some more money on FVV on 3.5 3s
 

Red Averages

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First two games were 206 and 201. So we’re talking about 4-5 more 3s from Toronto. They got 40 3s off in each of the first two games. That’s about a 10-13% increase in 3 point shooting - or roughly 40% from 3. Certainly not improbable but we know the Celtics whole game plan is to slow down Toronto into half court sets and force the bigs to shoot. We’ll see how it plays out. I like the over 1Q as a hedge like HRB said.
 

HomeRunBaker

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First two games were 206 and 201. So we’re talking about 4-5 more 3s from Toronto. They got 40 3s off in each of the first two games. That’s about a 10-13% increase in 3 point shooting - or roughly 40% from 3. Certainly not improbable but we know the Celtics whole game plan is to slow down Toronto into half court sets and force the bigs to shoot. We’ll see how it plays out. I like the over 1Q as a hedge like HRB said.
It isn’t only the math of numbers of threes x 3 but everything else it opens up for your offense. Dribble drive angles, confidence, etc etc.

I mean when people talk about variance they are referring to Lowry’s 0-7 vs Smart’s 4Q on Tuesday.
 

ElUno20

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Oof. Awful start for Vleet. And 2 fouls. Gonna warm myself with my money burning.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Cha
Oof. Awful start for Vleet. And 2 fouls. Gonna warm myself with my money burning.
I’m glad I got my 1Q Over and ran. It seems to be mental with the Raptors now especially Lowry, FVV and Siakam, who is suddenly playing like the 27th pick in the draft. They still grind so hard they aren’t out of it so I’m not ready to fade them in-game.