Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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These in-game lines seem nuts to me. Is an 11-point second quarter win really a +390 to come back?
There is usually good value on the dog with in-game ML especially in a sport like NBA where 11-points is a quick run. You could have crushed it fading the Clippers ML once they got a 15-pt lead in these playoff.

Oh and thank you Jimmy Butler for that baseline jumper and the 1H Over. :)
 

Joe Sixpack

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These in-game lines seem nuts to me. Is an 11-point second quarter win really a +390 to come back?
Yeah, betting in game and taking the team that's down by 8 or 10 points on the ML can be very profitable.

Last night I was able to get Celtics -1.5 1st Q at +140 when they were down by 1 or 2 points midway through the quarter.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah, betting in game and taking the team that's down by 8 or 10 points on the ML can be very profitable.

Last night I was able to get Celtics -1.5 1st Q at +140 when they were down by 1 or 2 points midway through the quarter.
If you bet the Celtics’ opponent when the Celtics have a double digit lead, you can pretty much retire.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yeah, betting in game and taking the team that's down by 8 or 10 points on the ML can be very profitable.

Last night I was able to get Celtics -1.5 1st Q at +140 when they were down by 1 or 2 points midway through the quarter.
I got Heat +9.5 after 3Q in G1 and hit them twice last night, +10.5 in 2Q and +9.5 at the half. I really should pay more attention to those outrageous ML prices though.

I’m expecting to see a little less scoring beginning in G3. Unfortunately the number is so low even before further adjustments it’s going to be hard for these Unders to be profitable with Miami’s offense providing the total a high floor. I can’t imagine me playing anything in G3 preflop.....just wait and look for another strong regression spot be it the side or total. They will be there that’s nearly a certainty.
 

HomeRunBaker

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If you bet the Celtics’ opponent when the Celtics have a double digit lead, you can pretty much retire.
I’d be interested to see full data on this rather than trusting my eye. In today’s game with its heavy reliance on the 3-point shot it seems like all teams are losing double digit leads regularly. This is why those regression spots are so strong throughout the league.

There was a stat I saw a couple years ago where the Warriors were like 21-12 in games when they were trailing by double digits. Not every team are those Warriors of course but for playoff teams a double digit deficit really isn’t very meaningful.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Thinking Jokic has the tip advantage, I bet the Nuggets to score first at +102 plus every member of their starting lineup....except Jerami Grant. Grrrrr.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hope at least someone tailed my 1H Over or even followed the entire game plan for the full game middle opportunity. Used 20% of my planned middle on Under 229.5.....this could be the best number we see but sticking to the game plan.

Edit: For the record, this is NOT one of these games where I’m playing for a regression. As discussed in game preview this could easily be a non-competitive blowout.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Took another 20% of my planned middle allocation at Under 228. If this lead gets extended I may not touch the remaining 60% and book more profit. Good spot to be in.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ok, file this under things I don’t understand. In prior rounds when the Lakers have had small leads which plays into a turtles pace we saw 4Q in-game totals of 54.5 and even 55.5 one game. Now tonight the game is a blowout that leads to looser 4Q play and generally more scoring......the total is 49.5. Oh-Kay.

I’m keeping that extra profit from the additional total play and looking for the Lakers to keep foot on the pedal to cash the Winning Margin prop bet.

Edit: And just like that....58 4Q points. I think I missed value here but can’t complain about this result.
 
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Red Averages

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Hope at least someone tailed my 1H Over or even followed the entire game plan for the full game middle opportunity. Used 20% of my planned middle on Under 229.5.....this could be the best number we see but sticking to the game plan.

Edit: For the record, this is NOT one of these games where I’m playing for a regression. As discussed in game preview this could easily be a non-competitive blowout.
i did an over + Lakers -7.5 parlay based on your insights. Easy win, thank you.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Another midgame moneyline that seems off. Heat down 12 at the half, +350 looks tasty as hell, that's a couple Herro shots from being a real close game.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Smart was a DK Odds Boost +1370 to score the first FG. He’s done it a few times in the playoffs so figured what the hell and threw some cash on it. Love when those occasional long shot what the hell bets pay off.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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I can't root for a Miami win so I'm on Heat +9.
I like to hedge my rooting interest, especially when the other team is a sizeable dog. Either the Celtics win, and I'm ok with losing a little, or I'm crushed by the loss but get a nice chunk of change to sooth the pain a little.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Diving in at the half for some Under 214. Looking to add more at or around top of 4Q if the Lakers maintain a small to reasonable lead. This Lakers spot has consistently worked to the Under all year. No reason to walk away now.
 

HowBoutDemSox

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Not to sound like a broken record, but is a 10 point halftime lead really +500 for a second half comeback? That’s got to be a more common occurrence than that, even with the Lakers as the favorite.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Not to sound like a broken record, but is a 10 point halftime lead really +500 for a second half comeback? That’s got to be a more common occurrence than that, even with the Lakers as the favorite.
You are definitely not wrong. Now my turn for a broker record.........

How does a 52.5 4Q in an ideal Under setup (short Laker lead) make any sense when in a terrible 4Q set up in G1 (blowout) the number was 49.5? Mind you, I’m not complaining. I’m more than happy to continue exploiting the 4Q Laker Unders if they keep hanging bad numbers.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Well done HRB
Thanks. Let’s try a little something tonight.

Nuggets know that their backs are against the wall but that they can compete with LA. Taking the desperate team plus 6.5 here is the only way to go. It’s also a nice flat spot for the Lakers after going up 2-0 on AD’s buzzer beater.

I will be playing a double size bet (on top of a good sized to begin with) with gameplan similar to that of my 1H Over in G1 where I later look to fill 100% of my overbet with middle action (therefore leaving a full play on Denver in place). I only filled 40% of that Over due to game condition and “could” do same if Denver runs away with one here. I’ll post thoughts here later as game is running.

I’m also dabbling with some 1H Nugget ML at +175 and some 1Q at +140 expecting the Lakers to be calling the first TO tonight. If you get a good “First to 10” or “First to 20 price” these are good too. As always w Lakers if the 1H is similar to G2 then I’ll be looking at those 2H and 4Q Unders again unless they are adjusted.
 

ElUno20

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How much are you dabbling on the 1st and 1h moneylines?

I havent watched a second of this series but that spot, given the circumstances, looks enticing. My only reservation is Denver quitting, now facing their 3rd straight hole to dig out of.
 

HomeRunBaker

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How much are you dabbling on the 1st and 1h moneylines?

I havent watched a second of this series but that spot, given the circumstances, looks enticing. My only reservation is Denver quitting, now facing their 3rd straight hole to dig out of.
I don’t expect this team to quit at all especially since they have played the Lakers very competitively in their games this season. Put it this way.....if this were your normal G3 in Denver down 0-2 it would be as big a play as I’d probably ever make. Without those high altitude home court conditions of a playoff G3 my enthusiasm is obviously tempered from expecting a Denver 20-pt blowout to this being a nail biter at worst.

I also feel they will focus on slowing pace and preventing Laker run outs so I played some Under 214 as well. As the Nuggets cover is correlated to the Total going Under I also played a parlay with the two.

Breaking down about what the pct of my plays will end up looking like:

* Nuggets (200%, normal 100 + the middle 100)
* Under (60%)
* 1Q Den ML (12-15%)
* 1H Den ML (12%-15%)
 

ElUno20

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Alright HRB, i put my left and right arm on the 1q and 1h. But im a coward so i took the points instead of ML
 

HomeRunBaker

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Alright HRB, i put my left and right arm on the 1q and 1h. But im a coward so i took the points instead of ML
Let’s cash!!!

I took some Lakers at +3.5 and +4 for about 40% of my middle play. This could be best number I get all night so I have my middle on a one-possession game which was what I was looking for originally. If they continue to roll I’ll probably ride the rest out and cash extra.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Thank you, HRB. I now have 4 arms
If you played the money lines you’d have like 5.1 ;)

I took more middle at Lakers +6 during last timeout. I think I have about 20% middle money left. I’ll add it up at the half.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Riding out what I have. 4Q Total is 51.5 in a non-optimal Laker Under spot. If I were smart I’d go toward the Over here.....but I’m staying disciplined.
 

shawnrbu

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Such a brutal beat on the 4th Quarter Under.
Murray with a bomb. If Jokic doesn’t commit that silly foul on the Kuzma drive, do the Lakers even intentionally foul twice if they are down 10 instead of 9? Then, to top it all off, the Caruso uncontested layup that you never see anymore in the final seconds to push the total to 52.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Can’t make this long right now (I’m sure you are happy lol) but have strong opinion on this game and played as such. I would be pretty ecstatic with a 112-110 C’s win.

In short, Celtics offensive flow is much improved with Gordo back and the Heat have exceeded 105 in every playoff game except two of them. I haven’t seen anything to suggest that this game won’t fly over this number which is about 8 pts from where I have it.

Heat apprpoached G3 up 2-0 almost identically to the Lakers up 2-0 last night. I don’t expect them to come out flat and unfocused again. I’ve always felt they are the better team pre-Gordo and I think they still are. Obv my conviction isn’t as strong as it is with the Total not knowing what Gordon’s 2nd game back will bring but I literally couldn’t get enough of the Miami Team Total. I’ll use Units to give idea about how I’ve weighted these comparable to each other.

* Over 106 1H (2.5 units)
* Over 211.5 (1.5 Units)
* Miami TT Over 104.5 (1 Unit)
* Miami +3.5 (.75 U)
* Miami 1H ML +145 (.35)
* Miami 1Q ML +130 (.35)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Someone forgot to tell these teams that this wasn’t a September exhibition game. Celtics are flat but still in the game as Miami missed so many bunnies and shots they normally make. Coming back with some 2H Over 106.5 for a little bit.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Head start on these next games:

Nuggets +6.5
Under 214.5

Celtics -3.5
Over 213.5 (far and away the best of these)
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ready to dive into this game for the first time at the end of 3Q. Do I even have to tell you what I’m playing unless they make an enormous adjustment from games past?

Under 223 for a bunch.DE-FENSE!!
 
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HomeRunBaker

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Done in by the FT parade to end game. Oh well it happens.

Edit: What I meant to say was saved by a miracle! It was correct side as this was a low-40’s 4Q so I don’t feel bad.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Having trouble with my Celtics conviction here at this number. Even though it’s a great spot for them they should be getting 3 just as they should have in these other games. Staying disciplined and keeping off the overvalued team here.

Hammering the full game Over and 1H over though.
 

Joe Sixpack

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Having trouble with my Celtics conviction here at this number. Even though it’s a great spot for them they should be getting 3 just as they should have in these other games. Staying disciplined and keeping off the overvalued team here.

Hammering the full game Over and 1H over though.
I am considering Miami ML or with the points despite agreeing with your take on the Celtics winning because I think the value is there - the game is probably 50/50 at best or a very small edge to the Celtics. I think there is value in getting +135 on Miami.

A combination of Celtics 1H ML with Miami (full game) ML could be a good play too.

Edit: I'm playing Miami TT over 105 and a smaller play on Boston/Miami double result at +600.
 
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HomeRunBaker

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I am considering Miami ML or with the points despite agreeing with your take on the Celtics winning because I think the value is there - the game is probably 50/50 at best or a very small edge to the Celtics. I think there is value in getting +135 on Miami.

A combination of Celtics 1H ML with Miami (full game) ML could be a good play too.

Edit: I'm playing Miami TT over 105 and a smaller play on Boston/Miami double result at +600.
I like the creativity and certainly can’t argue with that game flow handicap. Like G3, I expect the C’s to be the aggressor early but if the game is still close game in the 4Q it favors the Heat as they are so good at creating matchup advantages on one end and that zone in a walk it up style 4Q could continue to give Boston trouble.

I could see a good in-game spot in the 4Q on the Heat if this is a 2-3 possession game in favor of the Celtics.