Official NBA 2019-20 Betting Thread

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,991
LeBron layup for -110. Sure. We’ll see ya again for Game 4!

If this game gets out to a hit start I’ll hit the in game under.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Pretty sure Gary Vitti just hit a 3 for the Lakers too.

Max-Clicked Under 231 down to 230 on a bunch of sites. I’m confident I’m never going to see a better number than this.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
When the O/U gets to 229(as it is now) I’ve been hitting the adjusted lines in the 215-225 area to get odds. My guess is this ends near 210 but we’ll see.
When LeBron isn’t killing me....Westbrook is. When did they channel their inner Steph?
 

SteveF

lurker
Jul 14, 2005
116
I dunno man. Your point about Houston/LA 4th quarters still stands. I dunno what the number looks like now, but if you still believe in that...
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
I dunno man. Your point about Houston/LA 4th quarters still stands. I dunno what the number looks like now, but if you still believe in that...
It’s way over right now at 233.5. The pace is fine, the finishing is fine.....LeBron and Westbrook draining jumpers all over the court is not.

Had some Houston 1H money line at +130 and +135 so a little cushion there, riding a double result (half and game) at +205, series play and of course the game line with Houston. I’ve still got bullets left for a 4Q Under. I’m greedy....I want the perfects when they are set up so good.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
39-point 3Q was just what the doctor ordered. Number is live at 217.5 now. I’m so overexposed as it is instead of adding more at a bad number I’m even hedging a small amount the other way with a big middle opportunity. Protect some against an OT too. Crazy game.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,991
Small Laker lead is what I’m rooting for. Keeps LeBron engaged on D and has him holding the ball at the top of the key for 18 seconds on offense.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Small Laker lead is what I’m rooting for. Keeps LeBron engaged on D and has him holding the ball at the top of the key for 18 seconds on offense.
Yup all season long. 5-10 pt lead in the 4th brings the Lakers pace to a turtles pace. Not a perfect but a good result nonetheless thanks to the in-games.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,991
When the O/U gets to 229(as it is now) I’ve been hitting the adjusted lines in the 215-225 area to get odds. My guess is this ends near 210 but we’ll see.
- 4 units on Lakers to score first (hit).
- 0.5 units on JaVale to score first (loss).
now the fun. This... this is how you trade around your core view:
- 0.5 units Under 229 -113
- 0.5 units Under 228.5 -113
- 0.5 units Under 218.5 +180
- 0.25 units, under 215.5 +240
- 0.25 units, under 217.5 +155
- 0.25 units under 216.5 +200
- 0.25 units under 224.5 +148
- 0.25 units under 222 +195
- 0.25 units under 220.5 +220
- 0.25 units under 224 +160
- 0.25 units under 220 +250
- 0.25 units under 219.5 +240
- 1 unit under 225.5 -110
- 0.25 units under 216 +148

That’s how you make a 5.25 unit hammer bet at an average of nearly +180 or so as your confidence grows... with most of the money at risk above the start of the game O/U of 222.5.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
- 4 units on Lakers to score first (hit).
- 0.5 units on JaVale to score first (loss).
now the fun. This... this is how you trade around your core view:
- 0.5 units Under 229 -113
- 0.5 units Under 228.5 -113
- 0.5 units Under 218.5 +180
- 0.25 units, under 215.5 +240
- 0.25 units, under 217.5 +155
- 0.25 units under 216.5 +200
- 0.25 units under 224.5 +148
- 0.25 units under 222 +195
- 0.25 units under 220.5 +220
- 0.25 units under 224 +160
- 0.25 units under 220 +250
- 0.25 units under 219.5 +240
- 1 unit under 225.5 -110
- 0.25 units under 216 +148
- 0.25

that’s how you make a 5.25 unit hammer bet at an average of nearly +180 or so as your confidence grows... with most of the money at risk above the start of the game O/U of 222.5.
The discipline with the Units is impressive. I’ve got 3 sites on my laptop and 2 on my phone refreshing during timeouts to find best number than determine level of exposure at the available number then being sure it takes the play as some of mine have delays prior to approval. 15 years ago this process never would have been possible.....in 15 more years the kids will laugh at this as some archaic old school way to do this. You should have seen my BYU in-games last night against Navy lol.

I did get all of my in-game at 230.5 and the halftime number of 232.5 and 233.5. I can’t wait to see a number for Thursday. It took LeBron heroics and Rondo doing his Markieff Morris impersonation to get to 214. I’d have to guess this opens around 219.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
One good sized play here preflop. Looking to take advantage of the slow second unit scoring and don’t want to take the greatly reduced game total.

* Under 105.5 1H
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Going to continue with the early total trend tonight in the 2nd game.

Clips and Nuggets have scored 65, 69 and 62 in the three 1Q this series. The 1Q total didn’t get enough of a bump imo and the 2Q has continued with pace and scoring before slowing down in the 2H Why fight a pattern when there don’t seem to be any significant changes in G4?

* Over 57.5 1Q (2.5 unit)
* Over 114 1H (1 unit)
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,569
Canton, MA
One good sized play here preflop. Looking to take advantage of the slow second unit scoring and don’t want to take the greatly reduced game total.

* Under 105.5 1H
I don't think the game total was greatly reduced. It was 209 which is still higher than any of the actual totals in the series so far. I went with under 209 very comfortably in this one (now watch as the game goes to OT...)
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
I don't think the game total was greatly reduced. It was 209 which is still higher than any of the actual totals in the series so far. I went with under 209 very comfortably in this one (now watch as the game goes to OT...)
What I meant was reduced from the 218 or whatever it was in G1. These series in the bubble and no travel, home crowds, etc seem to result in some pretty consistent pace/scoring trends.
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,991
I don't think the game total was greatly reduced. It was 209 which is still higher than any of the actual totals in the series so far. I went with under 209 very comfortably in this one (now watch as the game goes to OT...)
i just took the under 213.5 fwiw.
 

Joe Sixpack

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sep 9, 2002
4,569
Canton, MA
What I meant was reduced from the 218 or whatever it was in G1. These series in the bubble and no travel, home crowds, etc seem to result in some pretty consistent pace/scoring trends.
Yeah I was thinking it was just down from 212-213 but I'd forgotten it was that high in game 1.

Nice play on the halftime under, I'm sweating it out now on the full game number.

Edit: I should start placing a small bet on game goes to OT as a hedge when betting under...
 
Last edited:

Light-Tower-Power

ask me about My Pillow
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
10,161
Nashua, NH
Everyone’s favorite DK prop is back again for tonight! Seems like every game regardless of teams is -110 either side to score first and that’s just that. Oh, and JaVale is +1000 instead of +800.
 

Jed Zeppelin

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2008
38,590
Everyone’s favorite DK prop is back again for tonight! Seems like every game regardless of teams is -110 either side to score first and that’s just that. Oh, and JaVale is +1000 instead of +800.
I got a $20 bonus for entering one of the free DK NFL pools. How much do I put on LAL scoring first, all of it or all of it?
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Off my write-up on Lakers/Rockets just refer back 48 hours. Played Under 220.5 when I could yesterday and a little more at 219.5. The number is beginning to creep down to where it should be but still great value from my seat. One of these games you aren’t going to get this early game knock down shooting and you’ll see it in the 90’s late similar to Clippers last night which we won’t even tak about (probably worst bet I’ve made in a month on several levels.....def learning exp.).

Also playing some Rockets +5 or 5.5 with another 1H or 1Q ML. Not as my much as House is a crucial piece for them and was greatly missed in G3.

Of course it’s go Lakers on the tip and stay active JaVale!!
 

Red Averages

owes you $50
SoSH Member
Apr 20, 2003
5,991
Lakers now -143 for team to score first...

... our man JaVale up to +1000. That’s the value.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Not liking this big lead here. Houston will be forcing pace every possession and their defense is making it hard for them to get stops on the other end.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
I didn’t play anything preflop here except two small props to keep me engaged.

* Under 23 points Kemba. I don’t know which are the greater issues to Kemba.....his knee, the lack of translation opportunities or the Raptor half court defense that is making it difficult for him to get clean looks. Probably a combination with the latter two being the two certainties which will remain tonight.

* Under 12 P-R-A Marc Gasol. He was in foul trouble G6 but his minutes look to be stuck in the mid-teens regardless. Combine these capped minutes with fewer playoff/G7 possessions and an overall lack of productivity I like this spot here.

Aside from this I’ll be looking for in-game regression spots be it side or total. Would love to see the Celtics up 8-9 pts in mid-2Q to grab Raps keeping within single digits along w a juicy ML play that I hope I would lose.....but we separate plays from fanboy over here, as much as it’s sucks sometimes I feel that I separate the two well considerbig.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
LAL opens at -155 to score first tonight. It was fun while it lasted.
It’s still fun. The real value is in the role players scoring first though if they have it. Green has hit twice at +800 this series. I’ve got Morris +850, Green +950 and KCP +1050 in that order. LeBron looked for Markieff first last game and Green almost always gets touches on the possession. LFG!!!
 

Light-Tower-Power

ask me about My Pillow
SoSH Member
Jun 14, 2013
10,161
Nashua, NH
It’s still fun. The real value is in the role players scoring first though if they have it. Green has hit twice at +800 this series. I’ve got Morris +850, Green +950 and KCP +1050 in that order. LeBron looked for Markieff first last game and Green almost always gets touches on the possession. LFG!!!
This is true. Took some action on those three myself.

Morris +1000
Green +1100
KCP +1200
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,095
This nuggets line for tomorrow seems ridiculous. +290 money line for a team with all the momentum and playing an early af game
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
This nuggets line for tomorrow seems ridiculous. +290 money line for a team with all the momentum and playing an early af game
Or just wait until the Clippers go up 15 and get the Nuggets +1500. I kid.....well, kinda.

Seems like everyone is giving up on the Rockets. I hate being on the side of everyone assuming a Lakers victory so nothing preflop for me except for my Laker 1st score props. I will look to see if the Rockets are close to quitting mode......in which case the Over and Lakers laying points will be in play live.
 

HowBoutDemSox

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 12, 2009
5,730
Boom is right!! KCP baby!! Now we just need the Rockets to somehow win this game to have another go at this on Monday.
Meant to put $10 each on Morris, Green and KCP, but accidentally skipped Green and instead wound up putting a second sawbuck on KCP. Wonderful mistake.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,095
Hrb, how much money should i put on denver with all this + money?

Theyre currently +250 against a spineless team who's quit.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Hrb, how much money should i put on denver with all this + money?

Theyre currently +250 against a spineless team who's quit.
Ha! I just realized what I posted above. I was so engaged with football I saw it was a 16-pt game at the half and got Denver at a ridiculous +15.5 bc these algorithms don’t account for what these Clippers have been doing. Next time I looked at my tablet it was a 1-pt game. Easy and stress free lol.

I mean I don’t mean to beat a dead horse......but why not just wait until the Clips have a double digit lead first? The other thing is this total is now down to 207.5......I wouldn’t play the Under two games ago bc they adjusted it to 216. I can’t see me passing on some Over here.

The other Over I like is G1 of Mia/Bos before the defensive adjustments take place.
 

ElUno20

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
4,095
Ha! I just realized what I posted above. I was so engaged with football I saw it was a 16-pt game at the half and got Denver at a ridiculous +15.5 bc these algorithms don’t account for what these Clippers have been doing. Next time I looked at my tablet it was a 1-pt game. Easy and stress free lol.

I mean I don’t mean to beat a dead horse......but why not just wait until the Clips have a double digit lead first? The other thing is this total is now down to 207.5......I wouldn’t play the Under two games ago bc they adjusted it to 216. I can’t see me passing on some Over here.

The other Over I like is G1 of Mia/Bos before the defensive adjustments take place.
I dont expect them to be down at any point Tuesday to be at +250 live. The Clippers full on quit today. Im expecting Tuesday to be a layup line for denver
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Meant to put $10 each on Morris, Green and KCP, but accidentally skipped Green and instead wound up putting a second sawbuck on KCP. Wonderful mistake.
Good to hear this mistake worked out.....they never seem to do lol.

Ok, the time has come! I’ve been waiting and waiting for the overcompensation on these totals to begin and they are finally hear.

Got Over 207.5 in this Clipper/Nuggets game and Over 209.5 in Celtics/Heat. In the Clips it is pretty simple.....:these teams have so many scorers that it is difficult to have simultaneous extended droughts. Jokic and Kawhi (and George) are able to get enough easy baskets to avoid being stuck on a number despite the Pace being slow. In the Celtics game, boy this is a good one. It should take a game or two for defenses to lock into all of their sets and where the shooters like to be. I don’t know how long I’ll be on the Over in this series but in this first game (and maybe the second) I expect much more offense than we saw in the Raptors with a reasonable total out of the gate.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Much like the Celtics/Heat G1 was a real good spot we have another great set up in the WC G1. The longer a series goes the greater advantage the defense has......yet in both G1’s the Total was over adjusted as if this were a game later in a tight series. This Laker/Nugget Total is 10-12 points off at its current 212 in G1 before the defenses get settled into what the offenses are looking to do. This affects the 1H number too.

In the last 3 regular season games these teams played they put up 232, 224 and 245 in regulation (the middle game went to OT). LeBron did not play in the 232 game which was a Nugget blowout win. They also put up 116, and 123 in the 1H of these final two games with LeBron playing.

* Played both the FT Over of 212 and the 1H Over 109. I planned to flip flop the weight I used in Celtics/Heat just due to the risk of LA taking the air out of the ball in the 4Q with a 10-pt lead or so which is very possible since they will likely have a good lead after 3 with Denver coming off a long series. However I decided to play the game total the same as the 1H to give me a nice middle opportunity after 3Q or so expecting LA to bring pace to the 4Q crawl that they do with a lead. This 109 1H number is such another dreamy spot that we’ve seen the past couple weeks.

* Lakers haven’t come out of the gate strong in their two G1’s in the bubble so I’m hesitant to play this side against a Denver team that could/should hit a wall in one of these first two games. I’m not into guessing which game his will occur or what LA’s approach is in another G1 but I do expect a Laker rout in one of these first two and will play some Winning Margin numbers in G1 for a Lakers blowout (and will do same in G2 if G1 isn’t one). For weighting purposes I used the following:
Lakers by 22 or more (+550) for 1.25 Units.
Lakers by 19-21 (+1000) for .25 unit
Lakers by 16-18 (+900) for .25 unit. Real good value in these Winning Margins over first two games.....low risk, high reward.
 
Last edited:

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
19,001
Came back with a little more Over tonight. 208 for game and 106 for 1H. About a third of G1 though. Some more TT over too as they are still at 102.5 for god knows why. I’m not confident in Brad simply making one adjustment using same personnel to see much changing from G1 to G2. This number is still too low for an early series game and nobody has been keeping these Heat under 110 in the bubble, 13-4 of 109+ in regulation since restart. This team is flat out made for the bubble.

Played them in-game some +9.5 after 3Q in G1 and will look to do same on either team in regression spot following a run into double digits. So nothing pre but I expect similar pace, shooting and spread (close final) as G1.