NY trade deadline 2022

jon abbey

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Upon request from @Murderer's Crow , here is a NY trading deadline thread. There is a massive amount of info that could go here, and in the end, Cashman is going to end up trading for guys who no one else even considered, but let's take a crack anyway.

First off, NY is playing so well that it makes it a bit more hard than normal to make moves, the better a team is playing, the less you want to mess with their chemistry. I'm not saying this will stop Cashman from doing anything, I am saying that this is a very real factor that is often ignored by outside observers like us.

Rotation: NY's 5 starters have all been healthy and very good all season, 4 are under control for 2023, only Taillon will be a free agent. Sears and Schmidt and Waldichuk are all waiting behind them for an opening. NY has long lusted after Luis Castillo and maybe now that he is down to a year and a half of control, they can find a match, but of course many other teams will be after him as well.

Bullpen: The numbers game here is confusing, on one hand bringing in old buddy David Robertson makes some sense but on the other hand, they will need to move guys. Injuries can of course always change things quickly but as of now:

Current pen: Banuelos, Abreu, Luetge, Marinaccio, Peralta, Castro, King, Holmes. 5 of these 8 have no options, King/Peralta do but aren't going down, and Marinaccio is the 8th and has been incredible since coming back up about a month ago, 10 outings totalling 13 innings and just one hit allowed, no runs.

Chapman will be back in a few days and Loaisiga soon behind, I think Banuelos (who has been very good!) will get DFAd today and then maybe Marinaccio will be unfairly sent down for Loaisiga. Domingo German is also close to returning, the point here is that barring injuries, it's hard to see NY adding relievers.

Outfield: Right now NY has Judge, Stanton, Hicks and Gallo, with Locastro, Florial, and Andujar in AAA, all on the 40 man. Trading Gallo (he should have a little value still) and bringing in a new LF or CF seems like the most likely move for NY to make, Ian Happ has long seemed like the best fit. I think any acquisition here would have to be controllable through 2023 at least, which rules out the mediocre anyway Benintendi (.612 OPS in June). I also would keep an eye on Florial, who finally may be living up to his promise in AAA in recent weeks and is a natural CF, which would allow Judge to go back to RF.

Infield: I don't see NY making any deals here, again barring injuries. Peraza coming up to play some SS is the most likely move here.

Catcher: Trevino has obviously been incredible, Higgy has been pretty bad. NY also has Ben Rortvedt coming back at some point, he had surgery on May 18 that was supposed to have him playing games again 6-8 weeks later, which is not too far away.

TL/DR: NY will likely be targetting a LF, maybe a SP, maybe a C, but all only if they are under control longer-term, rentals don't seem to make much sense. If you are filling 2023 holes, it makes more sense to give up prospect capital.
 

EvilEmpire

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Until they can get Rortvedt healthy and see how he looks, I think the trade deadline pretty much starts and ends with Gallo. As big a "change of scenery" guy as I think I've ever seen.
 

cromulence

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Yeah, it had to be him after what Abreu did last night. Hope he makes it back to AAA.
 

jon abbey

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Don't think there is any chance of that this time, but NY should get something back for him.
 

cromulence

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I meant Banuelos, not Abreu. You really think he's getting claimed? I'd think there's a chance he sneaks through.
 

Harry Hooper

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Chatter from MLB scout about Yankees acquiring Benintendi:

Are you good with the Yankees going with Aaron Hicks in left, Aaron Judge in center and Giancarlo Stanton in right, or would you trade for someone and make Hicks the extra guy?

Scout: They ought to go out and trade with Kansas City for Andrew Benintendi. He’s a line-drive hitter from the left side who is hitting .300. He’s somebody that you can count on every day. He’d stabilize left field to where you don’t have to worry about it. He won a Gold Glove year. He played and won in Boston, so he can handle the New York market and pressure. He’s got big-time makeup, too. I’m telling you, the Yankees need this guy in their lineup instead of Gallo.

What’s it going to cost to get Benintendi? He’s a free agent after the season, so you’re only getting a rental.

Scout: The Royals are asking for a lot. They’ll probably get two good prospects. They want young position players and the Yankees have enough to get a deal done and not give up the guys that they really want to keep — Anthony Volpe, Jasson Dominguez, probably Austin Wells.
Story
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, pure idiocy. Benintendi is a rental who has almost no power, is an adequate LF defender and has a lousy throwing arm. He’d be an upgrade on Gallo but so would most of the people reading this.
 

jon abbey

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Sorry, this is the pure idiocy part:

“Q: What would you give up for Benintendi?

Scout: Anything. The Yankees have a chance to win the World Series this year. If Benintendi cost you Oswald Peraza or Everson Pereira plus a good pitching prospect, do it. They probably won’t trade Clarke Schmidt. I get it. I like him, too, and he’ll probably be in their rotation next year. I’m not as high on JP Sears. The pitcher I’d keep is Luis Medina. I saw him in Somerset this year and I think he can be a big arm in the Yankees bullpen right now. But anyone else, if a couple of prospects who are ranked high can get you a hitter that might help you win a World Series, I’d never let that stop me from making a trade.“
 

Murderer's Crow

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I'd be shocked if that's who Cashman acquires. There are probably 10 people on Cashman's secret "never expected to acquire him" list that might outperform him offensively. Happ just makes too much sense. He's DJ light except hits lefty and plays the outfield.
 

jon abbey

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And Happ is under control for 2023, it really doesn’t make sense to give up assets for a rental in this case.
 

jon abbey

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Benintendi 2-3 with 2 walks tonight against HOU and Cristian Javier (who just no-hit NY for 7 innings), has to help his stock a little in Cashman’s eyes.
 

ThePrideofShiner

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Apparently Benintendi isn't vaccinated and won't be in Toronto this weekend with the Royals. Hard to see how he gets traded to an AL East team with that info.
 

cromulence

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I don't really get it. They have Marwin as the utility and LoCastro as the pinch runner in AAA for when the playoffs roll around. Maybe it's a sign of something else to come.
 

jon abbey

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I think it’s a AAA depth move, he will not be on the 40 man, but not really sure.
 

jon abbey

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I'd definitely rather have Wade than Locastro, plus Wade can play the infield whereas Locastro can't.
Both are pretty buried on the depth chart though, with multiple guys in AAA ahead of them (Florial/Andujar in the OF and Peraza/the just back from injury Cabrera at SS).
 

cromulence

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I'd definitely rather have Wade than Locastro, plus Wade can play the infield whereas Locastro can't.
I view both of these guys purely as pinch runners, and in that context, I prefer LoCastro. If something happens to Marwin, then yeah, Wade probably has a bit more value.
 

jon abbey

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OK, here is my thought about this:

Locastro is not hitting much in AAA (.764 OPS) and is behind Florial and Andujar on the depth chart. This allows NY to try to get him off the 40 man and clear a spot, and if he’s claimed, they have Wade for that Sept pinch-running role.
 

jon abbey

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NY should not be looking to trade for an OF* unless they can get someone they like who is controlled past this season at a reasonable price, Ian Happ fits the bill (controlled through 2023) but I think CHC wants a ton. Judge/Stanton/Hicks/Carpenter should be their OF/DH most nights in some combo, trade Gallo for whatever you can get and promote Florial and give him some games down the stretch. Besides that, they have Andujar and Locastro and Marwin.

*Soto is a separate category, I kind of do think NY should go after him pretty hard if possible.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I needed a refresher, so I looked again- the first tier tax thresholds and tiered penalties are as follows

2022: $230 million ($270m)
2023: $233 million ($273m)
2024: $237 million ($277m)
2025: $241 million ($281m)
2026: $244 million ($284m)
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.


I just did an estimate of our payroll for 2023, accounting for arb increases and FA losses, plus $35m for Judge and it gets us to a range of $230-240m in 2023. If we add Castillo, that likely adds around $13-15m after arbitration, putting us at around $250ish.

Do we have payroll room for Soto? Ooph. I really doubt it. You add Soto, you have zero flexibility without dropping payroll somewhere else. You basically have to wait for Donaldson to drop off in 2024 but then the arb increases catch up with you again to offset his free agency, plus you have to fill in 1b and 3b. Cashman will have to get incredibly creative if he has dreams of getting Soto....or we let Judge go and that's your flexibility.

If we are picking between Judge and Soto, I take Judge. He costs you money, plays gold glove defense, runs great on the bases, and is pretty much the same offensive star Soto is if not more. Age is a factor but we're dealing in unknowns 5 years out no matter what. Soto costs you half your farm AND he costs you Judge AND the mega contract. Do I want Soto? Of course. He's Big Papi for the next 15 years. Do I see how it makes sense right now? Not really.

Last edit: In the realm of crazytown, Cashman can likely find takers for Stanton at both his current cost ($29m) and current AAV ($22.5m). That is a team friendly contract for a player who puts up consistent offense and if we're really shuffling the deck to fit both Judge and Soto on the same team, I'd argue that you can get pretty great value for a combo of Stanton and Gleyber to get back a lot of the value you traded for Soto + build more payroll flexibility that you'll need to spread around the infield.
 
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jon abbey

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I think there’s a real chance NY will be able to expand their payroll into Mets/Dodgers territory once the Brandon Mayea signing is fully locked in.
 

jon abbey

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I would be pretty aggressive going after either or both of those guys but the one thing is I don't quite see how NY can afford to trade both Volpe and Peraza, together or separately. If they stay, they will likely be playing two of SS/3B/2B for NY in the next year or two, and it's hard to see how NY fills those positions competently without them without adding an umpteenth huge salary, then you have maybe IKF(controlled through 2024) until Trey Sweeney? Sweeney is their 2021 1st rounder who has been very hot in high A after a slow start, but he is at least 2-3 years away and Arias/Vargas even further, also Sweeney is projected as more of a 3B eventually than a SS.

But CIN has two good middle infield prospects who are close already so maybe they wouldn't insist on Peraza, I would try selling them on a package of Sweeney, Pereira and a few pitchers, Gammons has written twice about how much CIN loves Will Warren. I am really hoping that the reason NY just drafted so so many collegiate pitchers is that they plan to trade some of their many high ceiling SPs in the next couple weeks.

And if NY can keep Peraza, I am completely OK with Volpe going in a Soto deal.
 

jon abbey

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Pereira has exciting potential, he is almost the identical age to Volpe and outhit him as teammates in high A last year. He needed more high A ABs this year and started off slowly, but has been red hot again recently and got promoted to AA last week. Kiley McDaniel had him at #69 overall in MLB coming into the season, NY likes him enough that he is on their 40 man even though he is still probably a couple years away, he just turned 21 in April.

https://www.milb.com/player/everson-pereira-677592

Pereira, Sweeney, and pick 2 of Schmidt/Warren/Medina/Gil/Sikkema/Wesneski, let's see someone top that offer for a year plus of Castillo.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I think that's a "worry about SS later" kind of thing. The point where you have Soto, Stanton, Judge in the lineup and Cole + Castillo is where you say "okay we can deal with IKF for a couple years."

But I really do expect the Nats to want some of major league players lik Gleyber, Severino, German and I absolutely think they will happily accept major league talent like Andujar. They can add some upside non-prospect players from our roster nearly immediately.
 

EvilEmpire

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Yeah, I'm definitely in the "worry about SS later" camp if it brings back Castillo and Soto. IKF is fine, and I think his defense will settle a bit as he continues to get comfortable with the team. I really think he's one of those guys who puts a bit of extra pinstripe pressure on himself.

I mentioned it in the other thread, but I'm more curious about the kind of MLB talent that Washington might want. A couple of guys between Gleyber, Severino, Loaisiga, Holmes, Nestor and King are all players I could see Washington wanting in addition to top prospects and obviously some of them would hurt more than others.

On a different note, looking at COTs, I had no idea that the Yankees have three more years of control over Trevino. For some reason I thought he was older than 28.
 

jon abbey

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On a different note, looking at COTs, I had no idea that the Yankees have three more years of control over Trevino. For some reason I thought he was older than 28.
Incredible acquisition, although it has to be noted that the guy Cashman traded for him, Albert Abreu, has also been incredible for his current team, 12.1 8 1 1 3 13, a 0.73 ERA, he hit 101 at least once today.

Oh right, that is for the Yankees too after TEX and KC both gave up on him very quickly. To be fair, he walked 16 guys in 13 innings combined for them and he is out of options, so it's understandable, but NY fixed him literally immediately on his return.
 

jon abbey

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Dreaming is free, this would be NY going full old-school George for 2023:

LeMahieu 3B
Judge CF
Soto LF
Stanton RF
Rizzo 1B
Correa SS
Carpenter DH
Torres 2B
Trevino C

Donaldson and Hicks off the bench, that is a ridiculous payroll but the pitching staff should be cheaper (Chapman, Britton, Taillon, Green is over $40M) so even with Castillo, that would be down. I am scared to add up what that actually would be though, heh.

Cole
Castillo
Severino
Cortes
Montgomery
 

EvilEmpire

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I don’t actually believe that WAS wants major league talent with not much control left, Jarrett Seidler of BP has been very adamant in his take on that too:
I think Seidler asks a fair question. My thought is that Washington won't get a prospect package strong enough to do the deal and adding in a solid mix of quality players under team control for 2-3 years gives them cheapish assets that can play now and make the team better with the flexibility to try and extend them or deal them next year.

I think it is better to have a few top end prospects plus some quality MLB guys under control than a few top end prospects and a big pile of decent (but not elite) prospects. You can move the MLB guys for decent prospects later if you don't want to build around them.

I guess part of it is that I think taking too many guys from one system is less than ideal.
 

EvilEmpire

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Dreaming is free, this would be NY going full old-school George for 2023:

LeMahieu 3B
Judge CF
Soto LF
Stanton RF
Rizzo 1B
Correa SS
Carpenter DH
Torres 2B
Trevino C

Donaldson and Hicks off the bench, that is a ridiculous payroll but the pitching staff should be cheaper (Chapman, Britton, Taillon, Green is over $40M) so even with Castillo, that would be down. I am scared to add up what that actually would be though, heh.

Cole
Castillo
Severino
Cortes
Montgomery
That looks fun, assuming Soto isn't a butcher in that big LF.

Ah, who am I kidding. It would still be fun.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Dreaming is free, this would be NY going full old-school George for 2023:

LeMahieu 3B
Judge CF
Soto LF
Stanton RF
Rizzo 1B
Correa SS
Carpenter DH
Torres 2B
Trevino C

Donaldson and Hicks off the bench, that is a ridiculous payroll but the pitching staff should be cheaper (Chapman, Britton, Taillon, Green is over $40M) so even with Castillo, that would be down. I am scared to add up what that actually would be though, heh.

Cole
Castillo
Severino
Cortes
Montgomery
I already did it in my prior post - just add Correa to it.

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XbYhX0q0EsOuqLlksVrB6XCZmFYOXk2caeUU8FG1fgA/edit#gid=1520401900
 

jon abbey

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So maybe that would be around $310? $285 if they got someone to take Donaldson’s last year for a stapled prospect? Make it so, Brian. :)
 

BaseballJones

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Dreaming is free, this would be NY going full old-school George for 2023:

LeMahieu 3B
Judge CF
Soto LF
Stanton RF
Rizzo 1B
Correa SS
Carpenter DH
Torres 2B
Trevino C

Donaldson and Hicks off the bench, that is a ridiculous payroll but the pitching staff should be cheaper (Chapman, Britton, Taillon, Green is over $40M) so even with Castillo, that would be down. I am scared to add up what that actually would be though, heh.

Cole
Castillo
Severino
Cortes
Montgomery
Why don’t you just add Trout and Ohtani while you’re at it! Haha

But the crazy thing is, the Yanks actually probably could do what you suggest.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I don’t think this is true either and if it is, I think Cashman is out.
I don't think Cashman is even "in" until he wraps up the actual needs of this team. Funny enough, he can't even move on Happ or Benintendi until he knows he's out on Soto. I wonder if that means we see movement on a starter fairly quickly knowing that the outfield market might be slow until Soto is settled.