NY rotation 2022

jon abbey

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OK, with about 10 days until Opening Day, here is my guess at the current Yankee SP depth chart, including the entire system. Once guys get assigned in the next few weeks, I will update, but for now:

======================================
Cole
Montgomery
Taillon
Severino
Cortes
(German)

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, *Clarke Schmidt, *Luis Medina, *JP Sears, Matt Krook, Shelby Miller
AA: *Ken Waldichuk, *Hayden Wesneski, *Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Shawn Semple, Sean Boyle
high A: *Yoendrys Gomez,, *Matt Sauer, *Beck Way, Mitch Spence. Josh Maciejewski
low A: *TJ Sikkema, *Brock Selvidge, *Justin Lange, *Tyrone Yulie, Jhonatan Munoz, Nicio Rodriguez, Will Warren, Richard Fitts

FCL: *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================

The obvious issue is someone stepping forward behind Cole as a strong #2, but overall the depth in the organization at SP currently is very impressive, to the point where I think NY might need to move some of these guys. Cortes was great in 2021, earning 2.8 bWAR in just 93 innings pitched. His velocity was up a few MPH also, really allowing him to utilize his pitching smarts, glad that he will get a shot to start the season.

The exciting thing right now is that 6/7/8 are likely some version of Garcia/Gil/Schmidt (Michael King maybe in there too, maybe left as the long guy) and all three look awesome right now, 1 ER allowed between them in 12 innings,all with great velocity and spin rates.
 

Mr. Stinky Esq.

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Cortes was great in 2021, earning 2.8 bWAR in just 93 innings pitched. His velocity was up a few MPH also, really allowing him to utilize his pitching smarts, glad that he will get a shot to start the season.
I am a sucker for a funky delivery and I love watching Nestor pitch. It reminds me of watching Dontrelle Willis, not that it's the same delivery just that it's fun to watch. Back in October, he said he'd like to pick Dontrelle's brain:
https://nypost.com/2021/10/02/qa-with-yankees-pitcher-nestor-cortes-jr-before-mlb-playoffs/

Q: If you could pick the brain of any pitcher in MLB history?
A: I would have to say maybe like Dontrelle Willis or Al Leiter.
 

sean1562

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OK, with about 10 days until Opening Day, here is my guess at the current Yankee SP depth chart, including the entire system. Once guys get assigned in the next few weeks, I will update, but for now:

======================================
Cole
Montgomery
Taillon
Severino
Cortes
(German)

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, *Clarke Schmidt, *Luis Medina, *JP Sears, Matt Krook, Shelby Miller
AA: *Ken Waldichuk, *Hayden Wesneski, *Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Shawn Semple, Sean Boyle
high A: *Yoendrys Gomez,, *Matt Sauer, *Beck Way, Mitch Spence. Josh Maciejewski
low A: *TJ Sikkema, *Brock Selvidge, *Justin Lange, *Tyrone Yulie, Jhonatan Munoz, Nicio Rodriguez, Will Warren, Richard Fitts

FCL: *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================

The obvious issue is someone stepping forward behind Cole as a strong #2, but overall the depth in the organization at SP currently is very impressive, to the point where I think NY might need to move some of these guys. Cortes was great in 2021, earning 2.8 bWAR in just 93 innings pitched. His velocity was up a few MPH also, really allowing him to utilize his pitching smarts, glad that he will get a shot to start the season.

The exciting thing right now is that 6/7/8 are likely some version of Garcia/Gil/Schmidt (Michael King maybe in there too, maybe left as the long guy) and all three look awesome right now, 1 ER allowed between them in 12 innings,all with great velocity and spin rates.
Are Yankees fans worried about Severino not returning to his pre-injury form? It always sucks when a young pitcher like that gets wrecked with injuries during the prime of their career. When I Googled him just now to look at his career stats I saw a few articles about general soreness keeping him from getting ramped up right now. How many innings are you expecting from him, 150?
 

jon abbey

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Are Yankees fans worried about Severino not returning to his pre-injury form? It always sucks when a young pitcher like that gets wrecked with injuries during the prime of their career. When I Googled him just now to look at his career stats I saw a few articles about general soreness keeping him from getting ramped up right now. How many innings are you expecting from him, 150?
No idea, he is a bit sore right now and has been rusty in games but basically on track. I haven't read anything about them pacing him, but I do think they'd like to give the AAA guys some starts along the way, so I doubt anyone's innings will get too high except Cole.
 

jon abbey

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I am a sucker for a funky delivery and I love watching Nestor pitch. It reminds me of watching Dontrelle Willis, not that it's the same delivery just that it's fun to watch. Back in October, he said he'd like to pick Dontrelle's brain:
https://nypost.com/2021/10/02/qa-with-yankees-pitcher-nestor-cortes-jr-before-mlb-playoffs/

Q: If you could pick the brain of any pitcher in MLB history?
A: I would have to say maybe like Dontrelle Willis or Al Leiter.
Yeah, those two were lefties so that makes sense, but he reminds me more of a lefty El Duque or Cone, a lot of different deliveries and release points.
 

jon abbey

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We got minor league assignments, so an attempt to update the rotations up and down the system:

======================================
Cole
Montgomery
Taillon
Severino
Cortes
(German)

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, *Hayden Wesneski, Matt Krook, Shelby Miller, Shawn Semple
AA: *Luis Medina, *Ken Waldichuk, *Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Sean Boyle, Josh Maciejewsk
high A: *Matt Sauer, *Beck Way, *TJ Sikkema, Mitch Spence, Will Warren, Jhonatan Munoz, Tanner Myatt, Rodney Hutchison (*Yoendrys Gomez injured)
low A: *Tyrone Yulie, Juan Carela, Nicio Rodriguez, Richard Fitts

unassigned/FCL: *Brock Selvidge, *Justin Lange, *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================
 

jon abbey

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JP Sears is going back down, presumably to stretch out as both Deivi and Gil have looked wild and unreliable so far and they are stretching out Medina very slowly (all on the 40 man). Schmidt I'd think is almost certainly 6th guy currently, the national pitching gurus can't stop raving about his stuff. Sears could be 7th if he gets back in the groove he had in Scranton to end 2021, as detailed below.

Sears really blossomed at the end of last year, finally getting to AAA at the start of August (he was 25) and looking so good in his final five starts that they somewhat surprisingly protected him this winter.

Sept 9-Oct 1, 2021 in AAA, Sears went:

6 2 1 1 1 8
6 7 2 2 0 10
6 3 1 0 0 7
6.1 4 0 0 0 10
5.2 4 3 3 2 4

39/3 K/BB ratio in 30 innings!

So presumably they want him to stretch out again in AAA, Garcia and Gil have both had some very ugly outings already. Krook/Wesneski (AAA), and Waldichuk/Vasquez (AA) are all pitching great right now and are stretched out to start, but none are on the 40 man yet and Sears is.

Actually those four guys I named have not given up a ER between them so far this season, 32.1 combined innings.
 

jon abbey

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AAA:

Krook: 9.2 7 1 0 1 14
Wesneski: 8.2 5 1 0 2 8

AA:

Waldichuk: 10 5 0 0 2 16
Vazquez: 4 1 0 0 2 3

combined:

32.1 18 2 0 7 41, 7 total starts
 

jon abbey

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The NY rotation has been incredible so far, the same 5 guys have made all 21 starts.

Cole 24 18 8 8 10 27
Severino 19 17 7 7 6 19
Montgomery 20 14 6 6 5 15
Taillon 19.1 22 7 7 2 17
Cortes 20.2 15 4 3 3 28

Yes, they have only allowed 31 ERs total in 21 starts, 103 innings, 2.71 ERA.
 

jon abbey

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With King, Sears and Schmidt all looking really impressive this year, Wesneski and Waldichuk both continuing to dominate (in AAA and AA respectively), and 4 of NY's current 5 starters under contract next year, I wonder if NY is thinking about moving any or all of Gil/Garcia/Medina to the bullpen, with Chapman/Britton/Green/Castro all FAs after the season.

So a proposed 2023 pitching staff as of now, only guys who are already under contract for next year and currently healthy (so I am leaving out German and RIdings as I don't know what's really going on with either):

Cole
Severino (he has a $15M team option)
Montgomery (FA after 2023)
Cortes
Schmidt

King
Gil
Medina
Marinaccio
Luetge
Peralta
Loaisiga
Holmes

Sears and Deivi still not making that cut, also Wesneski/Waldichuk.
 

jon abbey

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Waldichuk promoted to AAA after a dominant start to the year in AA, let me try to do an update:

======================================

Cole
Cortes
Severino
Taillon
Montgomery

(German)

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, *Hayden Wesneski, *Ken Waldichuk, *JP Sears, Matt Krook
AA: *Luis Medina, *Randy Vasquez, Will Warren, Mitch Spence, Jhony Brito, Sean Boyle
high A: *Matt Sauer, *Beck Way, *TJ Sikkema, Jhonatan Munoz, Blaine Abeyta, Tanner Myatt (*Yoendrys Gomez injured)
low A: Tyrone Yulie, *Juan Carela, Chandler Champlain, Richard Fitts, Harold Cortijo, Trevor Holloway

unassigned/FCL: *Brock Selvidge, *Justin Lange, *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================

A lot of buzz about Will Warren, a 2021 8th round pick who has really blossomed in high A, it'd be nice if he got the call to AA to replace Waldichuk.

Edit: Updated a bit on 5/31.
 

BaseballJones

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Frigging Gerritt Cole seems to have gotten his act together. Through three starts he had a 6.35 era and 1.41 whip. Since then he's put up a 1.67 era with a 0.96 whip and a 10.9 k/9.

Dammit.
 

jon abbey

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NY will need a 6th starter again this week with the rain out, and Luis Gil isn't an option this time because he's hurt now (possibly badly). I think JP Sears (pitching right now in AAA) will get the nod, something like this:

5/21 CHW Cortes
5/22 CHW Severino
5/22 CHW Taillon
5/23 BAL Cole
5/24 BAL Montgomery
5/25 BAL Sears

Also the rainout makes it so NY's best four pitchers face TB in the series right after that, the first four listed there. If there was no rainout, Nestor would have pitched the 5/25 game.
 

jon abbey

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Waldichuk was very good in his AAA debut against Worcester today. Jarren Duran homered to lead off the game and then he didn't allow almost anything after that, 5.1 3 1 1 2 9 on 87 pitches.

Neither are on the 40 man yet (both need to be added by November) but Wesneski and Waldichuk continue to push up the depth chart, they just keep getting promoted and pitching their asses off. They are grouped together for talent reasons but also both were consecutive draft picks in 2019 (5th/6th rounds) and both are 24, plus the long names starting with W, heh.

Waldichuk has 218 Ks in 144 innings at three levels since the start of 2021, Wesneski has been in AAA all year and is leading the International League with a 0.82 WHIP. Depending on how they want to use Clarke Schmidt (this year's guy who is so good that he is rarely used), both might be as high as 6-8 on NY's SP depth chart along with Sears (who is on the 40 man and who I think will start on Wed or at least tag team with Schmidt).

https://www.milb.com/player/ken-waldichuk-686610?season=2022&team=531

https://www.milb.com/player/hayden-wesneski-669713?season=2022&team=531
 

jon abbey

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Sears figured something out in late 2021 and has otherworldly numbers since in AAA. Combining his final five starts of 2021 with his start of 2022, all in AAA:

51.2 31 10 8 5 69

So a 1.39 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP and an absurd 69/5 K/BB ratio in 51.2 innings.

Excited to see how it translates tomorrow! He is on 4 days rest and has thrown 65 pitches his last two appearances, so presumably aiming for 70-80.
 

EvilEmpire

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I hope Sears is as good as advertised.

I don't want to be responsible for a series loss to the shitty Orioles. :(
 

jon abbey

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Great job by Sears in his debut, he will probably go back to AAA to get even more stretched out. He was a surprising protect by Cashman before last year's rule 5 but he and Marinaccio both look very strong.
 

jon abbey

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A lot of buzz about Will Warren, a 2021 8th round pick who has really blossomed in high A, it'd be nice if he got the call to AA to replace Waldichuk.
And today he did, NY's first 2021 pick to make it to AA.
 

jon abbey

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Montgomery dealt is a big surprise, I will update the whole system once it shakes out a bit more, but the MLB rotation right now is:

Cole
Montas
Cortes
Taillon
German

With Schmidt stretching out in AAA and Severino back mid-September.
 

jon abbey

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So NY traded 8 SPs (including Montgomery) in the last couple weeks and got back just 1 (Montas). This obviously puts a big hole in the depth of the system, but they did get back two pitchers for Voit (Lange) and Gallo (Beeter), both in their top 20 prospects, plus they drafted 15 pitchers in the recent draft.

Here is a shot at the updated state of the system, I will tweak this as the minor league teams play this week and we see who is actually in the rotations, but I think this is pretty accurate as of now. The AAA rotation specifically has gone from absolutely loaded to kind of sad, hopefully Deivi earns his way back there soon at least.

======================================

Cole
Montas
Cortes
Taillon
German

(Severino)

AAA: *Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, Matt Krook, Sean Boyle, Ryan Weber, Mitch Spence
AA: *Randy Vasquez, *Will Warren, *Deivi Garcia, *Clayton Beeter, *Matt Sauer
high A: *Yoendrys Gomez, *Juan Carela, Shawn Semple, Blaine Abeyta, Josue Panacual, Blas Castano, Richard Fitts
low A: Tyrone Yulie, *Sean Hermann, Yon Castro

unassigned/FCL: *Brock Selvidge, *Justin Lange, *Osiel Rodriguez, *Drew Thorpe, *Trystan Vrieling

IL: *Luis Gil, *Brendan Beck

======================================
 

jon abbey

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A lot of movement that I edited into the previous post, mostly upward but also a demotion or two in there.

The one worth noting is Sean Boyle, who was pretty bad early, a late 2018 draft pick who will turn 26 in October, but he has been dominant for two full months now, before getting promoted to AAA today.

"Boyle ends his time in Somerset on a 10-game quality start streak, dating back to June 11. Over that stretch, Boyle's 64.1 IP lead all minor leaguers, while he ranks among MiLB leaders in ERA (1.68, 2nd) and WHIP (0.84, 4th) over this stretch."

https://www.milb.com/player/sean-boyle-682044