NY rotation 2021

jon abbey

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Pivotal offseason for NY's rotation, with Paxton, Tanaka and Happ all FAs. So here's who they have currently:

Cole
(Severino) (coming off Tommy John, expected back June or July)
Montgomery
Garcia
German
King/Loaisiga/Schmidt

NY is expected to add 1-2 SPs, I am hoping for Kluber as one of them as a reclamation project. This is an area where everyone listed above except Cole has minor league options remaining, so it is much easier to add a couple of veterans and push everyone else down a notch or two.
 

jon abbey

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Usually I try to do the minor league ones too, I will take a crack at that after the rule 5 draft later this week.
 

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Yeah, I think it is time to move on from Tanaka. I'd like to see Kluber in pinstripes, assuming he is healthy. Beyond Kluber, I feel like there has got to be some decent trade targets out there from teams that are stretched a bit financially.

I know the Phillies disavowed the Wheeler rumor, but I'd love to see something like that happen. I just don't have a good sense of potential targets.
 

jon abbey

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Bumping this post-rule 5 draft...

So I have been talking a lot in recent years about how NY has been doing a nice job stockpiling prospects with high-ceiling arms, and you can see the depth with NY now losing three guys who would be at AA or higher for them in the last 2 rule 5 drafts: Rony Garcia with the #1 pick last year, Garrett Whitlock to the Red Sox and Trevor Stephan to the Indians this year. It's very hard to know as a fan what your team actually has in the minors and even more so now after no 2020 minor league season. So it's worth noting which young pitchers NY protected ahead of Whitlock/Stephan, it is still a long and exciting list.

Deivi Garcia
Clarke Schmidt
Alexander Vizcaino
Luis Gil
Luis Medina
Roansy Contreras
Yoendrys Gomez

My guess is that those seven NY would like to keep stretched out as SP options, they also protected Yajure and Abreu and Nick Nelson as SPs who might be moved to the bullpen and Heller and Kriske who are mostly untested relievers, plus King and Loaisiga still in the mix somewhere.

So as a Yankee fan, it's exciting that they believe that all of these guys have either more long or short-term upside (or both) than Whitlock and Stephan, either or both of whom might stick in the majors all year this year.
 

jon abbey

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NY moves Roansy Contreras and Miguel Yajure in the Taillon deal, thinning out the young pitching on their 40 man a bit.

Cole
Kluber
Taillon
Montgomery
German

Garcia/Schmidt/King

(Severino back in June?)

That is nice depth and they held onto all of Deivi/Schmidt/Medina/Gil for now.
 

jon abbey

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A lot of legitimate talk about the recent lack of innings for many of NY's rotation candidates, so I thought it was worth remembering how incredible Michael King's 2018 minor league season was, although he has not approached that before or since. In 2018, he jumped from Tampa to Trenton to Scranton, a 1.79 ERA combined in 161.1 innings. He was at his best down the stretch in Scranton, just 5 ERs allowed in 6 starts in AAA, a 1.15 ERA. He is still 25 (26 in May) and a longtime Cressey/Blake guy, looks like he is #8 on the depth chart currently, maybe #9 behind Chacin.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=650633#/career/R/pitching/2021/ALL
 

Murderer's Crow

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A lot of legitimate talk about the recent lack of innings for many of NY's rotation candidates, so I thought it was worth remembering how incredible Michael King's 2018 minor league season was, although he has not approached that before or since. In 2018, he jumped from Tampa to Trenton to Scranton, a 1.79 ERA combined in 161.1 innings. He was at his best down the stretch in Scranton, just 5 ERs allowed in 6 starts in AAA, a 1.15 ERA. He is still 25 (26 in May) and a longtime Cressey/Blake guy, looks like he is #8 on the depth chart currently, maybe #9 behind Chacin.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=650633#/career/R/pitching/2021/ALL
If not the rotation, they are depth for middle innings and relief. But, as we're all probably thinking, not only due to the innings factors but injuries as well, 8th isn't very far behind in depth for serious innings. Would it surprise anyone if King, Schmidt, and Garcia average 5-6 starts each or more?
 

jon abbey

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Not at all, I posted in the other thread but even in the 60 game season last year, NY's 8th starter had 3 starts. Technically Severino would bump King to 9th once he is ready.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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Update on NY's SP candidates this spring so far:

Cole 7.2 9 4 4 2 11
Kluber 6 4 2 2 0 5
Taillon 5.2 4 0 0 4 9
Montgomery 10 4 1 1 3 7
German 9 5 0 0 1 13
Garcia 8 5 3 2 2 10

totals: 46.1 31 10 9 12 55

A 1.75 ERA and a 55/12 K/BB ratio, against mostly starter quality players.
 

jon abbey

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jon abbey

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OK, I've been meaning to bump this, and now it's even more relevant with Kluber out for a few months. This time I am going to add the minor league rotations as I've done in previous years, top prospects have a *.

======================================

Cole
(Kluber) (August?)
German
(Severino) (July?)
Montgomery
Taillon
Garcia

(Schmidt) (July?)
King

AAA: Mike Montgomery, Nestor Cortes, Nick Green, Brian Keller, Brady Koerner (none of these guys are prospects, although Nasty Nestor has been great in AAA so far)
AA: *Luis Gil, *Glenn Otto, Matt Krook, Janson Junk, Shawn Semple
high A: *Luis Medina, *Ken Waldichuk, *Hayden Wesneski, Jhony Brito, ???
low A: *Matt Sauer, Randy Vasquez, Sean Boyle, Jhonatan Munoz, *Beck Way

in limbo: *Alexander Vizcaino, *Yoendrys Gomez, *TJ Sikkema, *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================

So with three of their top nine guys out, who would be next up? King is already likely going this weekend, but who is after him? Good question, let's take a look.

Mike Montgomery turns 32 in July and is best known for getting the final out of the 2016 WS for the Cubs. He has been horrendous in AAA so far this year, though (7.56 ERA in 4 starts), so hopefully not him.

Next we have the former Yankees who could maybe come up for a 3-4 inning gig, Adam Warren and Nestor Cortes Jr, both have been great in AAA so far but neither are really starters although they may be trying to stretch Cortes out a bit, he made his first start of the season on Tuesday, 4 4 0 0 0 3. Cortes is possible and probably NY's current #7 unless there's someone I'm forgetting.

Next is the exciting duo in AA, Luis Gil and Glenn Otto. Gil is already on the 40 man, Otto will need to be after this season, and both are in the top 7 among all minor league pitchers in strikeouts so far this year (Medina is also, NY has 3 of the top 7). Gil is on the 40 man but Otto is older, either of these guys could get the call if NY needs to dig deeper.

Looking at this, I would guess at some point, NY would start to bump the organizational guys in the AAA rotation and move other guys up, as Gil, Otto, Medina, and Waldichuk all should probably be promoted. NY also really needs to get Schmidt and Vizcaino and Gomez pitching ASAP, all are on the 40 man and all have not pitched in 'real' games since 2019.
 

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I think you laid it out pretty well, thanks for taking the time! I hope to see more of King and Schmidt. Severino could easily get pushed back so you have to think King and Schmidt will get their chances before the deadline. If Severino gets pushed back beyond July, there's a good chance Cashman is forced to find a starter. Personally, this is the year where I think we might be okay rotation wise, even if Kluber and Severino aren't #2s.
 

jon abbey

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Mike Montgomery opted out today and went to the Korean league, so cross him off the depth chart.

Adam Warren is starting in AAA tomorrow.
 

jon abbey

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Warren walked 5 guys and got pulled four outs in, so he’s probably off the list for promotion for now.
 

jon abbey

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Scranton did lose Montgomery (Korean league) and Cortes (on NY) since my latest update above, they started Nick Nelson today (3.2 scoreless). Who might get promoted from AA to AAA to open spots? I would say all of Gil/Otto/Krook/Junk have made cases for promotion, in that order (Gil with an edge of being on the 40 man already). Tampa to Hudson Valley is harder to figure, Gomez is on the 40 man but just came back and has not thrown 40 pitches yet. Beck Way has a big arm, Matt Sauer maybe.

Anyway, lots of movement coming tomorrow's off day presumably, I will update the lists once the moves are announced. The most exciting thing happening in Yankee land!
 

jon abbey

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Also any time Alexander Vizcaino and/or Osiel Rodriguez would like to join us, that would be quite welcome.
 
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jon abbey

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OK, lots of player movement in the minors today, good time for an update here:

======================================

Cole
(Kluber) (August?)
German
(Severino) (Aug/Sept?)
Montgomery
Taillon
King

Garcia
(Schmidt) (July?)

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, Matt Krook, *Nick Nelson, Brady Koerner
AA: *Luis Medina, *Ken Waldichuk, *Glenn Otto, *Hayden Wesneski, Nick Green,, Janson Junk
high A: Jhony Brito, Shawn Semple, Mitch Spence
low A: *Yoendrys Gomez, *Matt Sauer, Randy Vasquez, Sean Boyle, Jhonatan Munoz, *Beck Way

in limbo: *Alexander Vizcaino, *TJ Sikkema, *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================

Gil and Krook up to AAA, Medina/Waldichuk/Wesneski up to AA. Not sure what's happening with high A and low A yet, also worth noting that Nick Nelson seems to be getting stretched out again in AAA (3.2 scoreless last time, scheduled to start again this week).
 

cromulence

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I'm sorry - Janson Junk? That's just spectacular. Please tell me he's a crafty lefty.
 

jon abbey

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My man Glenn Otto finally promoted to AAA today, so let's see where we stand, top to bottom:

======================================

Cole
(Kluber) (Sept?)
(Severino) (Aug/Sept?)
Montgomery
Taillon
German
Cortes
(King) (on the IL but I think ready to be activated or close)

Garcia
(Schmidt) (July/August?)

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, Matt Krook, *Glenn Otto, Brady Koerner
AA: *Luis Medina, *Ken Waldichuk, *Hayden Wesneski, Nick Green, Janson Junk
high A: Jhony Brito, Shawn Semple, Mitch Spence. Sean Boyle, Josh Maciejewski
low A: *Yoendrys Gomez, *Matt Sauer, Randy Vasquez, Jhonatan Munoz, *Beck Way

FCL: *Alexander Vizcaino, Freicer Perez

limbo: *TJ Sikkema, *Osiel Rodriguez

======================================

Three genuine prospects now in the Scranton rotation, plus Matt Krook, who is pitching better than any of them (just 20 hits allowed in 43.1 innings between AA/AAA, a .136 BAA), NY gradually building up some legit options in the minors.
 

jon abbey

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Heh, I'd put him back if he was back in the AAA rotation but I think he is still with NY.
 

jon abbey

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Update after the trading deadline:

Cole
(Kluber) (Sept?)
(Severino) (Aug/Sept?)
Taillon
Montgomery
German
Heaney

Cortes

Gil
Garcia
(Schmidt) (August?)
 

jon abbey

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Updating this mostly for my own reference:

======================================

Cole
(Kluber) (Sept?)
Taillon
Montgomery
(German) (Sept?)
Cortes
Heaney

(Severino) (who knows?)

Gil
Garcia

AAA: *Deivi Garcia, *Luis Gil, Matt Krook, *Clarke Schmidt, Brady Koerner
AA: *Luis Medina, *Ken Waldichuk, *Hayden Wesneski, *Randy Vasquez, Jhony Brito, Shawn Semple
high A: *Matt Sauer, *Beck Way, Mitch Spence. Sean Boyle, Josh Maciejewski
low A: *Yoendrys Gomez, Jhonatan Munoz

FCL: Freicer Perez, *Osiel Rodriguez

limbo: *TJ Sikkema

======================================

Not sure about some of those, I will tweak it over the next week as guys actually start games.
 

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I'm starting to read articles around power rankings next year (athletic and some lesser known sites). They all say the Yankees need another SP next year. What the fudge are they watching or reading? The rotation is stacked...

Cole
Taillon
Severino
Kluber
German
Montgomery
Cortes

And that completely ignores Gil, Deivi (maybe?), King and Schmidt. The Yankees might have to trade a starter this offseason.
 

jon abbey

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Kluber is a FA, you left out Medina.

Those general sites are usually not very tapped in, but it's true that NY needs someone to step up to the #2 behind Cole. Montgomery has been very good but is generally a 5 inning pitcher, Taillon was dominant for a while, Severino of course has the potential.
 

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Trading for a #2, if such could be done, would be awesome. I don't care how deep the pool looks, it is never deep enough.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Shoot, I thought Kluber was on a 2 year deal. Still, my point remains that saying they need pitching is unusual at this point. Number 2 pitchers are nice but they have a load of depth. If they fail in the ALDS or ALCS because of a lack of another stud, I get it, but now?
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, they are #1 in the AL in team ERA and #2 in WHIP, and essentially have already added a #2 candidate for next year in Severino.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm curious how much help Severino will be next year. Even if he is really good, I'm not sure how many innings they'll get out of him.

He has pitched less than 20 innings over the last three seasons. How much are they going to be able to build him up to?
 

jon abbey

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Innings jumps are mostly relevant for pitchers under 25. Severino is an incredible athlete and could easily go right back to a full load, I think.
 

EvilEmpire

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I suspect the "mostly" could refer to pitchers who are 28 and who have pitched around 30 innings total over the past three seasons.

You're right that Severino is a great athlete and I hope he can do it, but I don't think it will be easy and it would be foolish for the Yankees to count on it.
 

Murderer's Crow

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I suspect the "mostly" could refer to pitchers who are 28 and who have pitched around 30 innings total over the past three seasons.

You're right that Severino is a great athlete and I hope he can do it, but I don't think it will be easy and it would be foolish for the Yankees to count on it.
I think about this really often but when we're judging workloads as fans we only get to look at MLB innings pitches. We don't see rehab starts, innings that are part of their throwing program, their workouts, and everything in-between.

Then when you think about judging season to season, we act as if 150ip one year to 200ip the next is a big jump. But in reality, again, nobody is asking if that was 150 major league innings + a couple months of rehab + workouts + bullpen sessions against live hitters not logged. It just always feels so clumsy to me. With Severino, there is an obvious extreme but pitching is the only element to a sport where we really concern ourselves with calendar year workloads. If I stopped going to the gym for 2 years, would that mean that 2 years later I should not attempt to do as many max reps as possible at max weight since I had time off in the prior years?

Edit: my real point overall here is that it feels like a trap and maybe the real value of limiting innings from say 200 to 150 is a 25% less chance of injury for an injury prone player. Purely based on the number of innings/opportunities there are to get injured. And if the majority of injuries happen due to being overworked or pitching late into games (not sure) then maybe Severino is a 5 inning pitcher next year.
 

jon abbey

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Also pitchers get hurt all the time, young or old, low workload or high workload. Severino might not end up with a full workload next year but I don’t think it will have much to do with how little he’s pitched the last few years.
 

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Also pitchers get hurt all the time, young or old, low workload or high workload. Severino might not end up with a full workload next year but I don’t think it will have much to do with how little he’s pitched the last few years.
How much heavier is Seve now than five years ago? Just curious.