NY rotation 2020

jon abbey

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NY finally landing Cole after flirting with him for over a decade (originally drafted in 2008, serious trade talks in 2017) is a great time to start this thread.

Cole
Paxton
Severino
Tanaka
German (once his suspension ends, Cashman talked about him today like he was still part of their future plans)
(Happ) (presumably being traded shortly)
Montgomery

AAA: *Michael King, *Deivi Garcia, *Nick Nelson, *Albert Abreu, Adonis Rosa (guessing they move Loaisiga to the bullpen, but he would be here if not)
AA: *Clarke Schmidt, *Trevor Stephan, *Miguel Yajure, Rony Garcia, Shawn Semple, Nick Green (*Garrett Whitlock)
A: *Roansy Contreras, *Luis Medina, *Luis Gil, *Alexander Vizcaino, *Frank German, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto
low A: *Yoendrys Gomez, Jio Orozco, Harold Cortijo, Jhony Brito, *TJ Sikkema, Josh Maciejewski (*Matt Sauer)

That is an absolutely insane 1-5 once German is back, WHOO FUCKING HOO.
 

crow216

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Smells like Cashman still has a lot of roster work to do this offseason. Happ has to go no matter what, but there are still a couple of odd fits left there with Loaisiga and Montgomery.
 

jon abbey

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Smells like Cashman still has a lot of roster work to do this offseason. Happ has to go no matter what, but there are still a couple of odd fits left there with Loaisiga and Montgomery.
Montgomery is the favorite for the 5th starter (King and Deivi maybe in the mix too, it will be settled in spring training) while German is suspended which will likely be around a month (just my guess), and both he and Loaisiga have options. Loaisiga will be a long guy, I think.
 

graignotcraig

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Think the Yankees would use the extra roster spot for a six man rotation? Cole-Pax-Sevy-Tanaka-Montgomery-German are six quality arms, and from an injury prevention point of view, it makes sense (a recovering Montgomery, Tanaka and his elbow, German's first years with a full workload). German will probably be suspended early in the season, which is also when most teams have tons of off days. Go into April with a five man rotation, get German up and running and have a full six man rotation by June.
 

jon abbey

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I doubt they’d use a normal six man rotation, but they could use the IL to give guys breaks if they had six healthy guys at the same time.
 

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I wonder if the Yankees might slot Severino in as the 4th starter. Going Cole and then Paxton allows them to go righty-lefty back to back days, and Paxton has been a top of the rotation guy for a few years now. Tanaka is sort of the prototypical boring No. 3. And by slotting Sevy at the 4 spot, it allows the Yankees to ease off on the pressure on him, so he can be and stay totally healthy. If he returns to ace potential, terrific. If not, he is still the best No. 4 in the league by a long stretch.
 

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I'm not a fan of six man rotation with this group, but I'd love for the rotation to stay healthy enough for people to keep asking the question.
 

crow216

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I'm not a fan of six man rotation with this group, but I'd love for the rotation to stay healthy enough for people to keep asking the question.
Right. Let Blake and staff figure out a "stay fresh" plan. If that involves planned skipped days, fine by me.
 

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More work for Abbey — what’s the 2021 rotation? Which rookie will be ready to start in that season? Why spend money on Paxton and Tanaka when the farm fruit is ready to eat?

My guess: Deivi replaces Tanaka and Monty replaces Paxton. And they have other options.

A Rhode Island TV station did a nice feature on Michael King this week. He was shown participating in the division title clinching party, having arrived earlier in the day. King pitched two innings in that game and is still thrilled.
 

RIrooter09

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I wonder if the Yankees might slot Severino in as the 4th starter. Going Cole and then Paxton allows them to go righty-lefty back to back days, and Paxton has been a top of the rotation guy for a few years now. Tanaka is sort of the prototypical boring No. 3. And by slotting Sevy at the 4 spot, it allows the Yankees to ease off on the pressure on him, so he can be and stay totally healthy. If he returns to ace potential, terrific. If not, he is still the best No. 4 in the league by a long stretch.
The 1-5 order really doesn’t matter as injuries/off days inevitably rearrange it.
 

terrynever

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yeah, things def get mixed up. It’s more about taking as much pressure as possible off Severino.
Cole takes pressure off all the pitching staff, assuming he comes in and dominates. He had Verlander at his side in Houston. Now he has to be that veteran ace for Severino and the rest.
 

TheDivision

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More work for Abbey — what’s the 2021 rotation? Which rookie will be ready to start in that season? Why spend money on Paxton and Tanaka when the farm fruit is ready to eat?

My guess: Deivi replaces Tanaka and Monty replaces Paxton. And they have other options.

A Rhode Island TV station did a nice feature on Michael King this week. He was shown participating in the division title clinching party, having arrived earlier in the day. King pitched two innings in that game and is still thrilled.
If Paxton pitches great this year then make him a competitive offer in FA. We don’t know how Sheffield will turn out but as is the return is 1 year of Paxton, a year of adjustment for him I might add, and next season.
 

jon abbey

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Paxton is going to make a ton, but one reason Cole was so crucial for NY is that they can let both Paxton and Tanaka walk now if they want.

Terry, I say Clarke Schmidt is the most likely, but NY gets to see how all of these guys develop for the next year before having to decide.
 

graignotcraig

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I doubt they’d use a normal six man rotation, but they could use the IL to give guys breaks if they had six healthy guys at the same time.
Sorry, didn't mean to post and run (work...busy). It'll be harder to use the IL to skip starts in 2020- I remember reading that pitchers will have to go down 15 days instead of 10 (position players still have a 10 day IL). I don't disagree with the sentiment "I'll believe it when I see it", but I have to think the analytics department will take a good hard look at the possible health and performance benefits of a six man rotation with this group. Decent arms 1-6, health questions for at least three of them (Severino, Tanaka, Montgomery), German seemed to wear down second half last year, a desire to protect their $324M investment for the full 9 yrs. With off days, they could be looking at pitching once a week for stretches at a time. From a health standpoint, that's got to be tempting.
 

jon abbey

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Also a conventional six man rotation would mean a seven man bullpen (you’re only allowed 13 pitchers on the 26 man roster), which would get tricky quickly with Boone likely forced to use his top guys in lopsided games. I could see the occasional opener/long guy worked in to give the regular five guys a day off, though.
 

jon abbey

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Yankees are rumored still involved in the Bumgarner/Ryu/Keuchel free agencies as well as talking to CLE about Kluber. This interest in adding another SP is a bit confusing to me, so I thought I'd work through it some here. Right now NY has:

Cole (through 2028)
Severino (through 2022, 2023 option)
Paxton (through 2020)
Tanaka (through 2020)
German (through 2023)
Happ (through 2020, possible vesting option for 2021, likely to be traded before the season)
Montgomery (through 2023)

Then Deivi, Michael King, Clarke Schmidt waiting in AAA.

Kluber is making $17.5M in 2020, has an $18M option for 2021 which vests at 160 innings, and then is a FA after 2021. Bumgarner is a FA but would be a 4-5 year commitment.

So, looking ahead to 2021, NY has Cole, Severino, German and Montgomery in place. The only thing that makes sense to me here is that NY is planning on moving multiple guys from the Montgomery/Deivi/King/Schmidt set in other trades this winter (hello Josh Hader), so they want to put an additional SP in place longer-term. It's confusing, though, all of those guys seem like they will be substantial overpays, either in money (the FAs) or in talent (Kluber).
 

jon abbey

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I hope they move on from German.
Cashman did not seem like that was what they were doing in his winter meetings interview on YES, he seemed set on him being back mid-season and going back in the rotation. I really don't want to get into a back and forth with anyone on this, but we have close to no idea what happened as of now. It is strange that it is taking so long, I get that MLB has a lot on its plate but it has been four months already.

He was suspended roughly the final month of the season (with pay, but precedent allows a player to convert this retroactively to unpaid and have it count as part of the suspension, as it should), and I would guess (knowing nothing more than anyone else obv) that he would get one more month, maybe two, so will be back in May or June, but yeah, I don't know.

Also everyone is figuring NY's payroll like they will have to pay Ellsbury, but the Mets just got quite a bit back from Cespedes in a very roughly similar situation (big bucks deal who missed multiple seasons in a row), obviously Cashman knows way better than us there also. NY is around $256M right now after Cole and Gardner, $239M without Happ but with Ellsbury, so without both of them, they could easily fit in Kluber or Lindor's salary plus Maldonado and still be well under $248M. I am not holding my breath on that, though.

Anyway, more moves coming, exciting times for Yankee fans. I say no on Kluber but yes on Hader if possible, obviously depending on the package. Cashman can afford to overpay for Hader, just a question of how far overpaid he needs to go. Hader is I believe the closest we've seen to a three true outcome pitcher so far, too many HRs (15 in 75 innings last year) and walks, but almost no other hits, only 77 total in 157 innings over 2018/2019 and 24 of those were HRs.
 

jon abbey

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@chawson linked to last year's xwOBA pitching leaders on the main board, fun to look at for Yankee fans with Cole on board. Using minimum 450 PAs against so that it is just SPs, here are some MLB rankings for NY's top three guys over the last three years (only the highlights), this is among 136 qualifiers:

Cole: 10th in 2018, 1st in 2019.
Severino: 8th in 2017 and he was just as good the first half of 2018.
Paxton: 4th in 2017, behind only Scherzer/Sale/Kluber.
 

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Yeah, my opinion on German is based on the assumption that he he did something deserving of a long suspension. If he didn't, I've got no problem with him. That said, whatever those actions were, they already hurt the team last season. It would have been nice to have German available in the playofffs.

I'm not saying that domestic abusers should be out of the league once they've served their suspensions, but I'm definitely not a fan and will be happy if Cashman can find other options.
 

jon abbey

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@chawson linked to last year's xwOBA pitching leaders on the main board, fun to look at for Yankee fans. Using minimum 450 PAs against so that it is just SPs, here are some MLB rankings for NY's guys over the last three years (only the highlights), this is among 136 qualifiers:

Cole: 10th in 2018, 1st in 2019.
Severino: 8th in 2017 and he was just as good the first half of 2018.
Paxton: 4th in 2017, behind only Scherzer/Sale/Kluber.


Behind them (completely cherrypicked stats but still):

Their 4th starter Tanaka has a career 1.76 postseason ERA in 8 starts, only 25 hits allowed in 46 innings (!!!).
Their 5th starter (once back from suspension) German was 18-4 last year.
Their 6th starter Montgomery was better than Cole the last season he was healthy (2017, 2.9 bWAR in the AL East to Cole's 2.7 with PIT).
Their 7th starter King had as good a stretch run in 2018 in AAA as you will ever see from any pitcher, 12 starts between AA and AAA, 83 IP, 52 hits allowed, 14 total ERs allowed for a 1.52 ERA, 10 BBs and 77 Ks. He has worked previously with Matt Blake at Driveline too and is evidently a manic analytics guy. NY got him from MIA in the Caleb Smith 40 man space deal and King was so good down the stretch in 2018 that it looked like NY had the lopsided edge there going into 2019, even though Smith was already in the MLB rotation for MIA with a fair amount of success.
Their 8th starter is NY's top non-Martian prospect, 20 year old Deivi Garcia who already got to AAA last year, an exciting 5'9" 163 pound righty who watches Pedro highlights on Youtube to pump him up before every start (this is true). He had a 14.6 K/9 in AA which got him the starting spot in the Futures game, a K against Pache and two popups. He spent the two months after that in AAA (again, he does not turn 21 until May) and was only OK, but he was almost certainly the youngest guy in the league and likely will be again to start 2020.

Which is a really long way of saying I would still probably trade Clint Frazier for a year of Robbie Ray, I think, if that was on the table (ARI has six starters after signing Bumgarner).That is selling low on Frazier probably, but it's time for both team and player to move on there, I think.
 

TheDivision

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I’m glad they didn’t sign Bumgarner or trade for Kluber, and hopefully they don’t sign any other rumored SP. There’s no need especially with the competition having been weakened this off-season. Save the money to re-sign Paxton next off-season if he continues to adjust and pitch great.
 

jon abbey

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Bumping this because I haven't updated since the excitement of the Cole signing on Dec 11. The big news is no news so far, Happ has not been traded and is the 5th guy currently while German is suspended. So I think we're at:

Cole
Paxton
Severino
Tanaka
(German) (suspended until early June)
Happ

That would push all of Montgomery and King and Deivi into the Scranton rotation, and Happ could audition for a midseason trade when his salary is a little lower. Montgomery has pitched himself into the rotation with a strong spring before but he could use consistent innings in AAA at least for a bit. King is the guy I am really excited to see this year, between his insane stretch in AAA in Sept 2018 (1.15 ERA in 6 starts/39 innings) and his prior relationship with Matt Blake:

"Did you know any Yankees pitchers before this?

Blake: "I worked with Mike King. He had been in the Northeast and played for me on a scout team and then had just been around Cressey Performance (note: where Blake was the director of pitching). I got to know him pretty well over the last four to five years. I also knew Ben Heller because he was with us in Cleveland. Those are the two main guys, and was familiar with a lot of the guys with New York."

And Deivi we all want to see, of course. A lot of talent to follow in the minor league rotations this year, starred guys are legit prospects. Montgomery is obviously not a prospect anymore but was very solid the last time he was healthy and often TJ guys come back throwing even harder. He is still only 27, and as I said above (repeated because it is hard to believe), he was better than Cole the last season he was healthy (2017, 2.9 bWAR in the AL East to Cole's 2.7 with PIT).

Minors, NY has also not moved any of these guys in the last two months despite a crowded 40 man:

AAA: Jordan Montgomery, *Michael King, *Deivi Garcia, *Nick Nelson, *Albert Abreu (I have Loaisiga as a long guy in the MLB bullpen, but he would be here if not)
AA: *Clarke Schmidt, *Trevor Stephan, *Miguel Yajure, Rony Garcia, Shawn Semple, Nick Green (*Garrett Whitlock)
A: *Roansy Contreras, *Luis Medina, *Luis Gil, *Alexander Vizcaino, *Frank German, Janson Junk, Glenn Otto
low A: *Yoendrys Gomez, Jio Orozco, Harold Cortijo, Jhony Brito, *TJ Sikkema, Josh Maciejewski (*Matt Sauer)

Especially psyched for that wave of guys in Tampa currently, the first four listed. If Medina can keep throwing strikes, the sky is the limit for him.
 

jon abbey

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Well, now we see why NY kept Happ, turns out they have known this was a possibility since late last season. This gives Montgomery and King and Deivi a rotation spot to shoot for in spring training, should be fun to watch that.
 

terrynever

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Well, now we see why NY kept Happ, turns out they have known this was a possibility since late last season. This gives Montgomery and King and Deivi a rotation spot to shoot for in spring training, should be fun to watch that.
Great point. My money is on Deivi. Can Yanks delay his arrival to gain extra year of control? I should know that.
King played high school ball in RI. I could enjoy rooting for him.
 

jon abbey

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Can Yanks delay his arrival to gain extra year of control? I should know that.
Yeah, it's always about a month. If you remember in 2018, Gleyber was kept down to get the extra year of control and they planned to do the same with Andujar, but then they had to bring him up quicker when Drury got hurt, so I think there's a good chance Andujar starts in AAA this year if he isn't traded before then (looking increasingly unlikely) so they can get the extra year of control, which will also boost his trade value some.
 

terrynever

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Oh well, but on a positive note, the longer he’s out the cheaper he’ll be as a FA.
Can the Yankees replace Paxton in 2021 with homegrown talent? Might be two openings by then with a handful of talented prospects to choose from.
 

jon abbey

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I think that's the plan if at all possible, let all of Paxton/Tanaka/Happ go and you're left with Cole/Severino/German/Montgomery plus King/Deivi/Schmidt and Gil/Medina at some point.
 

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Can the Yankees replace Paxton in 2021 with homegrown talent? Might be two openings by then with a handful of talented prospects to choose from.
I really don’t know how the minor leaguers will fare in the Bronx. So, we’ll see what they got. But the Paxton that ended the season on a tear is a #1 or 2 at the very least.
 

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Well, now we see why NY kept Happ, turns out they have known this was a possibility since late last season. This gives Montgomery and King and Deivi a rotation spot to shoot for in spring training, should be fun to watch that.
If they knew awhile ago, why did they wait until pitchers and catchers are reporting?
 

jon abbey

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If they knew awhile ago, why did they wait until pitchers and catchers are reporting?
"Cashman acknowledged having surgery so close to spring is not ideal, but that surgery was recommended as a last recourse.

The Yankees GM said Paxton first reported discomfort after a one-inning, playoff-tuneup start Sept. 27 in Texas and received an MRI and treatment from Rangers team physician, Dr. Keith Meister.

Paxton made three postseason starts, the last one in particular a six-inning, one-run gem against the Astros in ALCS Game 5 and the issue seemed resolved. Cashman said about a month ago, when Paxton began to intensify his workouts in preparation for spring, the pain returned. Paxton was sent to Dr. Dossett, who Cashman said recommended more injections and four weeks of rest to see if surgery could be avoided. But the pain resurfaced after the month and surgery was undertaken.

“We had to wait to see how it played out rather than rush to a decision,” Cashman said. ”Surgery is always the last resort and the last resort takes time. We lost time on the playing side. We took the proper steps of the process to determine if surgery was necessary or not.”

 

jon abbey

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So I updated it a day early, sorry James. I actually think the impact of this should be close to a non-event and could even end up helping if Paxton comes back full strength with fewer innings on his arm down the stretch. Adding the Paxton news:

Cole
(Paxton) (out until May or June)
Severino
Tanaka
(German) (suspended until early June)
Happ
Montgomery

Cashman said today that the No. 5 rotation spot will be decided between Jordan Montgomery, Michael King, Jonathan Loaisiga, Luis Cessa & Deivi Garcia, calling it an “open competition.” I have Loaisiga and Cessa as the two long guys in the bullpen and Deivi very likely to go to AAA for at least a month to gain the year of control, so I would make that a likely two way race between Montgomery and King. Neither pitched much last year returning from injuries, Montgomery has the experience but Blake has known King forever.

Also the non-roster SPs NY invited to camp certainly took note of today's news, Nick Tropeano and old buddy David Hale.
 

jon abbey

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Clarke Schmidt is probably just behind everyone I mentioned above to take the 5th spot out of spring training, barely pitched in AA last year and not on the 40 man yet, but he could push his way up pretty quickly.

 

jon abbey

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Updating this for Severino's unknown status:

Cole
(Paxton) (out until May or June)
(Severino) (scheduled for tests Mon-Wed)
Tanaka
(German) (suspended until early June)
Happ
Montgomery
King/Bettis/Garcia/????

Boone said today about Paxton:

"In-game comments from Aaron Boone to Suzyn Waldman and John Sterling: "(James Paxton) is on track to start throwing in the next 10 days or so. I think there is a really good chance that he’ll be ready sometime in May. He’s doing well and we’re excited about where he’s at.”"
 

jon abbey

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OK, updating this and removing Severino totally:

Cole
(Paxton) (out until May or June)
Tanaka
(German) (suspended until early June)
Happ
Montgomery
King/Bettis/Garcia/????

I think the 5th starter will be King or Bettis, but Deivi or Schmidt could push their way in with a stellar spring. Loaisiga and Cessa still seem better off as long guys IMO. Schmidt isn't on the 40 man but NY can clear two spaces by putting Severino/Hicks on the 60 day IL.
 

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OK, updating this and removing Severino totally:

Cole
(Paxton) (out until May or June)
Tanaka
(German) (suspended until early June)
Happ
Montgomery
King/Bettis/Garcia/????

I think the 5th starter will be King or Bettis, but Deivi or Schmidt could push their way in with a stellar spring. Loaisiga and Cessa still seem better off as long guys IMO. Schmidt isn't on the 40 man but NY can clear two spaces by putting Severino/Hicks on the 60 day IL.
Thank goodness for the depth, and reinforcements that should return before the all-star break. On another positive note, we all wanted to see one of the minor league kids pitch, and we’ll probably get to see that, and who knows maybe one of them excels.
 

jon abbey

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As of this second, still a ways to go, but Clarke Schmidt might be the favorite for the 5th spot. He would have innings restrictions but if he is ready, might as well pitch his innings in the bigs, and he looks like he could be ready.
 

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As of this second, still a ways to go, but Clarke Schmidt might be the favorite for the 5th spot. He would have innings restrictions but if he is ready, might as well pitch his innings in the bigs, and he looks like he could be ready.
His slider is to die for.
Could they start with Schmidt for two months and then plug in Deivy for two, if he’s ready?
 

jon abbey

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His slider is to die for.
Could they start with Schmidt for two months and then plug in Deivy for two, if he’s ready?
Deivi probably has innings restrictions too, but once Paxton and German are back, they will have a lot of flexibility, depending as always on who is actually healthy.