NY rotation 2018

jon abbey

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You can flip Gray back to the Sox series after German's giant turd today.
 

jon abbey

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Justus Sheffield with another strong AAA outing, 6 6 0 0 1 3. His AAA ERA is down to 2.82 in 45 innings, one bad game where he gave up six ERs and only eight combined in the other eight games.
 

jon abbey

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A bit late, but Jonathan Loaisiga cracks the BA midseason top 100 at #71:

Jonathan Loaisiga
Yankees RHP

Fastball: 70. | Curveball: 60. | Changeup: 50. | Control: 50.

Scouting Report: Just two years ago, Loaisiga was out of baseball after being released by the Giants. Signed by the Yankees out of a tryout camp, he then was shut down for Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2017 to dominate the short-season New York-Penn League. Nothing on that resume prepared anyone for Loaisiga’s rocket-boosted rise to the Yankees this year. Despite coming into the season with just 2.1 innings of full-season experience, Loaisiga jumped straight to the high Class A Florida State League, then the Double-A Eastern League and then to the Yankees rotation. His near top-of-the-scale stuff (and the fact he was already on the 40-man roster) allowed him to make such a quick jump. His 94-98 mph fastball is a plus-plus pitch that he locates well. His 12-to-6 hard mid-80s curveball gives him a second plus pitch and he mixes in a sinking, hard 87-88 mph changeup is a useful average offering. Loaisiga has had a lengthy injury history, but if he can stay healthy, he has mid-rotation stuff.
 

chawson

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Don’t mean for this to sound like a reactionary post, but what do you think the Yanks would get back for Sonny Gray? Looking a bit like Javier Vazquez redux, but he’s obviously still young and valuable.

Certainly some team would be interested in a year and a half of Gray at arb-rates, but I’d imagine Cashman would want pitching in return. Is there some change of scenery move you see happening?
 

jon abbey

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No one besides NY especially wanted him last July and his stock has gone way down since then, obviously. NY has been pulling the best out of almost every other pitcher lately, so that doesn't bode well for the change of scenery thing.

Anyway, NY has plenty of assets, they don't need to get value for him, they need him to do his job or go away. I talked about dealing him last winter, but that train is long gone now IMO.
 

jon abbey

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Although maybe if he was pitching for the Padres, he'd actually challenge hitters, and Preller thought Bryan Mitchell was an asset last winter, so anything is possible.
 

sean1562

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Why do you guys think he is so bad at Yankee Stadium? He isnt all that bad elsewhere, he is just terrible at home. After yesterday, 8.25 ERA at home vs 3.28 away, with 8 HR is 36 innings at home while only 2 HR in 46.2 away. Is it just the ball carrying out at home while it hasn't been doing that away? "nerves"?
 

jon abbey

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Even at his best with Oakland he wasn't very good against AL East teams, and he got shelled at Fenway this year also. I just think he's not that good, Cashman was reluctant to trade for him last summer but he needed to try to put someone in place and Gray did seem to make the most sense at the time, flaws and all.
 

jon abbey

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Ken RosenthalVerified account
@Ken_Rosenthal


Scout on Sonny Gray: “Did not throw a single changeup last night to get hitters off his FB. Threw every curveball the same speed. Zero creativity!” Gray had cut down on his CH because he felt his CB and SL were more effective. Opponents batting .539 off his 55 CHs this season.
 

jon abbey

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Two weeks until the All-Star break, that's when I think Cashman will take stock and maybe make a big move if he thinks that is the way to go:

7/1 BOS Severino
7/2 ATL German
7/3 ATL Loaisiga
7/4 ATL Sabathia
7/6 @TOR Gray
7/7 @TOR Severino
7/8 @TOR German
7/9 @BAL Loaisiga
7/9 @BAL Tanaka
7/10 @BAL Sabathia
7/11 @BAL Gray
7/12 @CLE Severino
7/13 @CLE German
7/14 @CLE Loaisiga or Tanaka
7/15 @CLE Loaisiga or Tanaka or Sabathia

Two big starts for Gray, otherwise it might be time to sell him for parts.
 

jon abbey

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Rotoworld points out that Hamels has massive home/road splits, a 5.83 ERA at home in the AL Coors equivalent and a 2.05 ERA in 8 road starts, so maybe he is more of a genuine upgrade option than I thought.
 

j-man

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who is out there i say let just get a num 3 starter or wait we have good pitchers on the way sheffeld for one
 

jon abbey

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Sheffield with another superb start in AAA tonight, 7 3 1 1 3 6 on 100 pitches. He has had 10 games in AAA so far, one bad outing (5 innings, 6 runs) and only nine total ERs allowed in the other nine (2.61 ERA, 1.74 not counting the one dud).

Loaisiga was sent down to AAA after the game tonight, but NY will need another SP on Saturday, and Sheffield lines up perfectly for that, so hopefully it is him.

http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?sid=milb&player_id=656954#/gamelogs/R/pitching/2018/MINORS
 

jon abbey

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Tanaka is back next time around but that doesn’t bump Gray or German. I think Cashman will make changes at the ASB, 1-2 more turns for those guys until then.
 

chawson

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Two weeks until the All-Star break, that's when I think Cashman will take stock and maybe make a big move if he thinks that is the way to go:

7/1 BOS Severino
7/2 ATL German
7/3 ATL Loaisiga
7/4 ATL Sabathia
7/6 @TOR Gray
7/7 @TOR Severino
7/8 @TOR German
7/9 @BAL Loaisiga
7/9 @BAL Tanaka
7/10 @BAL Sabathia
7/11 @BAL Gray
7/12 @CLE Severino
7/13 @CLE German
7/14 @CLE Loaisiga or Tanaka
7/15 @CLE Loaisiga or Tanaka or Sabathia

Two big starts for Gray, otherwise it might be time to sell him for parts.
Minimal schadenfreude here, but when you first posted this, I really felt that the Jays and Orioles were easily slayable dragons for Gray, especially on the road.

Both teams are playing so well that Gray’s struggles must make it seem to fans like he’s singlehandedly responsible for the Yankees losing ground. I’d imagine the O’s could be his last start either way. Really curious what Cashman will get for him.
 

Murderer's Crow

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Minimal schadenfreude here, but when you first posted this, I really felt that the Jays and Orioles were easily slayable dragons for Gray, especially on the road.

Both teams are playing so well that Gray’s struggles must make it seem to fans like he’s singlehandedly responsible for the Yankees losing ground. I’d imagine the O’s could be his last start either way. Really curious what Cashman will get for him.
It's not only his fault, but he gets the bullseye on his back because both of his last two starts were as bad as they could be. The offense has been somewhat...asleep. We score runs but Jon shared a stat the other day that we are the worst in the league with RISP since the beginning of June.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, the RISP has been awful, but also NY is 7-10 when Gray starts and 49-19 when literally anyone else does.
 

jon abbey

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This isn't good, he was already back to AAA but this means Cessa gets the doubleheader start Monday. Hopefully it's nothing serious, but I can't say I'm realistically optimistic:

Bryan Hoch‏Verified account @BryanHoch

Jonathan Loaisiga had an MRI that showed right shoulder inflammation. He will see Dr. Chris Ahmad in NYC on Monday.
 

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I don't know Scranton's rotation but why not call up Sheffield for a spot start? Granted it's the Os but starting Cessa seems to be reducing the chance of victory from 90 percent to more like fifty fifty. It seems like Boone uses Cesa's starts as givevaway games and gives alot of regiulars the game off. It will probably continue as Cesa will be pitching the second game of the double headet. Finally, this also means that the bullpen will be heavily used in Cesa's game.
I am anxious to see Sheffield against major league hitters. When will we get the chance to see him pitch?
 

jon abbey

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Yep, we're all anxious to see him, maybe Cashman is trying to save his innings for later in the year. He does walk a few too many guys, but he makes up for it by allowing very few hits.
 

richgedman'sghost

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Cessa versus German seems like just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic. Why not get some fresh blood up such as Sheffield and see what he can do? He certaintly cannot be any worse.
 

jon abbey

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Cessa versus German seems like just rearranging the deck chairs on the Titantic. Why not get some fresh blood up such as Sheffield and see what he can do? He certaintly cannot be any worse.
He just turned 22 and he almost certainly has innings limits, so there is a pacing factor in there and that's easier to control in AAA. Also he is I think the highest rated pitching prospect they've had in a while (Keith Law had him at #12 overall this week, I don't think Severino ever got that high on anyone's list), so Cashman wants to be especially careful with his development presumably.

Cessa supposedly has a new slider (he says he is just throwing it a bit slower) and has been awesome three starts in a row, six shutout innings against the Orioles and the two in AAA since. He was admittedly helped by some nice outfield catches on blasts in the Orioles game, but still six shutout innings is six shutout innings, plus a 6 2 0 0 0 9 in AAA tonight on just 69 pitches.
 

jon abbey

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Also Loaisiga should hopefully be back at some point, this is the most recent update I see, from July 9:

"Loaisiga (shoulder) received a cortisone shot and will be shut down for a few weeks, Marc Carig of The Athletic New York reports.

No structural damage was found, but the talented rookie is dealing with inflammation. There's a chance that even though this shoulder injury will cost Loaisiga at least a month in the middle of the season, it may not actually impact his total innings pitched in 2018, as he has thrown 63 innings between the minors and majors, and only threw 32.2 innings in 2017. He will miss most if not all of July, and will then have to go on a rehab assignment before potentially rejoining the big-league club in mid-to-late August."
 

jon abbey

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So with the two All-Star games he pitched in briefly, Sheffield had 13 days between starts, 7/8 to 7/21. He is at 63 innings and just turned 22, 2015/16/17 his innings were 128/123/95 (plus more in AFL, I believe), so I'd guess his cap would be around 150. 65 games left is 13 rotation turns, so 78 regular season innings optimistically would take him to around 140 and ideally he is in the postseason rotation so you can see why they are trying to keep him back as long as possible, but it seems close, again pending whatever happens at the deadline.
 

gedman211

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Severino last 3 starts:
15 IP, 25 H, 6 HR, 13 ER

What's going on- is it the slider?
 

jon abbey

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Tipping pitches maybe? I am sure we will get to read much more informed takes than ours in the next few days.
 

ronlt40

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Tipping pitches maybe?
That's what i think. In his start against Cleveland Severino got into the 3rd or 4th inning without getting a single swing and miss. Al Leiter even alluded to it (or the Indians stealing signs) during the broadcast.
 

Sox and Rocks

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You all certainly hope it's tipping pitches because that's the quickest (and perhaps easiest) issue to address.

I was wondering about fatigue given his young age, but looking at his career numbers, he did pitch 193 innings last year, impressive for his age, and he pitched ~ 150 the two previous years. This suggests he's been handled correctly/conditioned for more innings, but it can still be problematic for a young pitcher to throw 200+.

A tired and less effective Severino would obviously stretch an already thin rotation.
 

jon abbey

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Lynn got a late start in spring training and was horrible early on, he has a 3.50 ERA since May 26 in 69 innings, 11 out of 13 games in that stretch he's given up 3 ERs or less including two against BOS and one against CLE.
 

jon abbey

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If everyone NY had was healthy and available, Adams would probably be about 9th or 10th in the pecking order. He has ability although the consensus has been that he will likely end up in the pen eventually, but after a couple of dominant seasons at every level of the minors in 2016/2017, he has regressed some this year and been up and down in AAA. He has been improving though, his last start he took a no-hitter into the 7th, and he was a top 100 prospect coming into the season, so good luck in a very tough situation to debut.