NY rotation 2015
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Interesting article by Will Carroll on Tanaka's injury and Tommy John surgery in general:
https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2015/04/07/tanaka-and-tommy-not-now-maybe-never/
https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2015/04/07/tanaka-and-tommy-not-now-maybe-never/
There is a reasonable comp between Tanaka and Catfish Hunter after his 328-inning 1975 season. Catfish was 29 then. Tanaka is 26. But they are similar pitchers. Catfish could get a hitter out with four different pitches. Catfish had a bad shoulder problem as the years went on. Tanaka is nursing his elbow. Both guys lost velocity. Catfish threw 298 innings in 1976 and then 143, 118 and 105 before retiring at age 34 after the 1979 season.
Tanaka didn't throw 328 innings last year but pitching every five days, for the most part, was different than every six or seven days in Japan. He never threw more than 226 innings in his seven Japan League seasons and averaged around 190 per year. He was at 129 innings after 89 Yankee games in 2014 when the elbow shut him down for two months. Had he not been injured, the Yankees had him on pace for around 230 innings. Probably more high-stress innings, too, in MLB than JBL.
I still think he can pitch through the season and do what Catfish did in his final years, keeping hitters off-balance with an assortment of pinpoint pitches. When Catfish was off, though, results were hideous, including one June game at Fenway in 1978, I think, when the Red Sox mashed him for four rocket shots over the wall in the first inning.
Tanaka didn't throw 328 innings last year but pitching every five days, for the most part, was different than every six or seven days in Japan. He never threw more than 226 innings in his seven Japan League seasons and averaged around 190 per year. He was at 129 innings after 89 Yankee games in 2014 when the elbow shut him down for two months. Had he not been injured, the Yankees had him on pace for around 230 innings. Probably more high-stress innings, too, in MLB than JBL.
I still think he can pitch through the season and do what Catfish did in his final years, keeping hitters off-balance with an assortment of pinpoint pitches. When Catfish was off, though, results were hideous, including one June game at Fenway in 1978, I think, when the Red Sox mashed him for four rocket shots over the wall in the first inning.
It's not just velocity. The pitches looked flat. I don't know because he is mixing less 4 seamers in with the 2 seamers? To just have a blanket velocity reading isn't the full issue here.
If he pitches like he did on Monday for the rest of the season, he's going to get his ass kicked. It's going to be ugly. Is the torn UCL the reason? Is it mental? Was he just "off" that day? I saw this guy pitch a dominating shutout against the Mets last year. When he's healthy, he's a great pitcher. He looked like a fringe starting pitcher his last 3 MLB starts. Even the "good" start" he had when he came back last year, he wasn't himself.
But yeah the overall fastball velocity was the same. Great. We don't even know why he is throwing one of his (the better) fastball less of the time.
If he pitches like he did on Monday for the rest of the season, he's going to get his ass kicked. It's going to be ugly. Is the torn UCL the reason? Is it mental? Was he just "off" that day? I saw this guy pitch a dominating shutout against the Mets last year. When he's healthy, he's a great pitcher. He looked like a fringe starting pitcher his last 3 MLB starts. Even the "good" start" he had when he came back last year, he wasn't himself.
But yeah the overall fastball velocity was the same. Great. We don't even know why he is throwing one of his (the better) fastball less of the time.
SeanBerry said:
Very true, and if Mat Latos gives up 7 runs every inning all season, he's going to set records. Can we please all act like we've watched baseball before and give guys a little while to settle in? Thanks in advance.
Jeff Passan just tweeted that Tanaka hit 92+ 23 times in his 2014 1st start.
On Monday? He hit 92+ twice.
The breaking pitches are going to be so much easier to lay off when you don't have the fastball to set them up. Having use of only the 2 seamer and not the 4 seamer makes a big difference too because then hitters only need to wait on one fastball.
Tanaka has 3 games started since the All-Star Game last year. In those three starts he has thrown 11 IP and had 10 ER. But I'm not acting like someone who has watched baseball before because I am going to a baseball message board and bringing this shit up? So boss, tell me...when should I talk about one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball with a torn UCL?
Thanks in advance.
On Monday? He hit 92+ twice.
The breaking pitches are going to be so much easier to lay off when you don't have the fastball to set them up. Having use of only the 2 seamer and not the 4 seamer makes a big difference too because then hitters only need to wait on one fastball.
Tanaka has 3 games started since the All-Star Game last year. In those three starts he has thrown 11 IP and had 10 ER. But I'm not acting like someone who has watched baseball before because I am going to a baseball message board and bringing this shit up? So boss, tell me...when should I talk about one of the highest paid pitchers in baseball with a torn UCL?
Thanks in advance.
jon abbey said:
Tanaka looked awful. He clearly was holding back and looked tentative to throw the ball. As an idiot that convinced himself "It is only Spring Training" before drafting him in a fantasy draft, I am severely worried. Everyone and the their mother is saying the same thing. His elbow will explode. Hell he is even pitching like he thinks his elbow will explode. The Yankees did themselves a massive disservice by not forcing the issue last summer and having him get the surgery then.
The team is plain horrible now. They are now dragging out his useless period through a couple of seasons. By the time they recover he is going to be in rehab for surgery he should have had a year ago.
jon abbey said:
This is dumb.
SB is hardly the first person to express concern about Tanaka making it through the season. It seems rather clear that he wasn't talking strictly about results about about why he was pitching like he did.
It remains to be seen what happens, but pointing out the injury concerns about him doesn't seem to deserve a "calling out", even one executed as poorly as that one was.
#goodjobgoodeffort
Everyone knows that Tanaka is coming off an injury, and a shitty first game is causing numerous people (not just here) to jump to largely silly conclusions. People need to read Will Carroll's piece (already posted here) and take a few deep breaths and realize that one game in baseball virtually always means nothing by itself. I mean, we all know that on some level, that's all I'm saying.
https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2015/04/07/tanaka-and-tommy-not-now-maybe-never/
Also the most recent Daily News piece on this is at least a bit less knee-jerk than the first few:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/harper-tanaka-concern-lost-translation-article-1.2177136
"Perhaps most emphatically, they make the case that anybody who can throw a splitter at 87 mph, as Tanaka did on Monday, can’t possibly have an injured elbow.
Add all of that up and the Yankees insist Tanaka’s problems on Monday were more about his pitch selection and location than the lack of a good fastball."
"With that in mind, Yankee people said there is likely to be a meeting on Wednesday with Tanaka to clear up any confusion. They said that based on what pitching coach Larry Rothschild has been telling them, Tanaka is healthy and determined to get back to his dominant, pre-injury form."
So yeah, maybe it will be an issue, everyone knows that already and did coming into the season. All I'm saying is that I don't think we know too much based on one start, and we will know a lot more in a month or so.
https://www.fanduel.com/insider/2015/04/07/tanaka-and-tommy-not-now-maybe-never/
Also the most recent Daily News piece on this is at least a bit less knee-jerk than the first few:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/harper-tanaka-concern-lost-translation-article-1.2177136
"Perhaps most emphatically, they make the case that anybody who can throw a splitter at 87 mph, as Tanaka did on Monday, can’t possibly have an injured elbow.
Add all of that up and the Yankees insist Tanaka’s problems on Monday were more about his pitch selection and location than the lack of a good fastball."
"With that in mind, Yankee people said there is likely to be a meeting on Wednesday with Tanaka to clear up any confusion. They said that based on what pitching coach Larry Rothschild has been telling them, Tanaka is healthy and determined to get back to his dominant, pre-injury form."
So yeah, maybe it will be an issue, everyone knows that already and did coming into the season. All I'm saying is that I don't think we know too much based on one start, and we will know a lot more in a month or so.
Quotes from Girardi and Larry Rothchild here:
http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150407&content_id=116781550&oid=36019
"It's one game, so I'm not going to make too much of it," Girardi said after Opening Day. "He's still building up arm strength - it's something that all of our guys still build upon - and it's getting into a long season. You always feel like you're going to have your best stuff when you warm up, but some days it's just not quite the same."
"Physically, he seems to be fine; "I've watched him between starts all spring, and he's building arm strength still," Rothschild said. "We went slow early in the spring, knowing that it's going to be a work in progress, really, and I think he's holding his own right now. (Today) isn't the results that you anticipate or want, but I think you have to be reasonable the way you look at things - he is building arm strength, and will continue to."
http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150407&content_id=116781550&oid=36019
"It's one game, so I'm not going to make too much of it," Girardi said after Opening Day. "He's still building up arm strength - it's something that all of our guys still build upon - and it's getting into a long season. You always feel like you're going to have your best stuff when you warm up, but some days it's just not quite the same."
"Physically, he seems to be fine; "I've watched him between starts all spring, and he's building arm strength still," Rothschild said. "We went slow early in the spring, knowing that it's going to be a work in progress, really, and I think he's holding his own right now. (Today) isn't the results that you anticipate or want, but I think you have to be reasonable the way you look at things - he is building arm strength, and will continue to."
I don't think anyone is taking anything based on just one start. The just one start is yet another bad data point for him, as is how he looked yesterday and the fact that he has a torn UCL in his arm. Of course we don't "know" anything. I mean, that first line in the quote--he does have an injured elbow, does he not? I'd be skeptical of info the Yankees are disseminating on him. I don't think this is a "watch more baseball" moment.
jon abbey said:
HOLY SHIT. What do you think they are going to say "Well shit we have handled this situation wrong for the last 10 months or so, our bad"?
JohntheBaptist said:
It was 10 to 12 percent torn last summer, from the Carroll piece above:
"One thing to be noted here is that ligaments do heal. They heal poorly and slowly, but techniques such as platelet rich plasma injections, stem cell injections and cold lasers do appear to have a positive effect on their healing. They do heal with scar, so it’s never quite the same."
jon abbey said:
Can you address the actual concerns being raised--that maybe he's being pushed to quickly either coming off of an injury or possibly still being hurt?
You're acting kind of childish in that any perceived criticism of their handling of Tanaka deserves a snarky comeback.
There is little I hate more than coming off as a Yankee spokesman/apologist on this site (and I don't think I do very often), but this is a case where people (not just here) are rushing to judgment way too quickly IMO. Maybe in a month or two, it'll be totally obvious to everyone including me that he should have gotten surgery last year (even though all the doctors consulted advised against it), but making definitive statement about the situation now seems way premature to me, that's all I've been trying to say.
Could the Yankees actually force Tanaka to get surgery against the recommendation of doctors?
I doubt it. Even if they could, I can't see a reasonable argument why they would. Going against medical advice is dumb and only opens up the possibility of even more second-guessing and (probably) liability if the surgery fails.
I doubt it. Even if they could, I can't see a reasonable argument why they would. Going against medical advice is dumb and only opens up the possibility of even more second-guessing and (probably) liability if the surgery fails.
Your post using his own manager as support to your head in the sand approach of 'no one is allowed to talk about this' alongside your post saying people need to act like they've watched baseball before is fucken hilarious.
SydneySox said:
Heh, people can talk about it all they want and they have been ad nauseum, as they always do with Opening Day results, and this is obviously an extreme case. I just quoted Girardi and Rothschild to add info, they don't seem especially worried. Maybe we'll look back on all of this in a few months and laugh at them, or maybe I will bump this thread after Tanaka finds his form.
Chances are good he will be hammered again by the Sox this weekend, by the way. I eagerly await the wave of informed medical opinions that will follow that.
Professional baseball people have a lot more patience with player performance than fans do. Having said that, I'm in the camp that says we have seen the last of the dominating Tanaka until he gets his UCL rebuilt. The Yankees and Tanaka both listened to what the doctors agreed upon last summer. They tried to avoid surgery. Since he returned last September, this is not the same pitcher. He may still compete and give them 5-6 innings per start, maybe 7 on a very good day,
I think the next step is Tanaka goes back to the four-seamer as the weather warms up. And then we find out about the elbow by mid-summer. Maybe it has healed enough to withstand the stress. Only time will tell. This is the gamble the Yankees took last summer. Have they turned this rehab into a two-year situation?
Meanwhile, the Yankees really need Pineda and Eovaldi to kick ass. CC has to give them innings and consistency. Warren has to hold the fort until Nova is ready. This rotation can still be very solid even if Tanaka has to battle for every out.
I think the next step is Tanaka goes back to the four-seamer as the weather warms up. And then we find out about the elbow by mid-summer. Maybe it has healed enough to withstand the stress. Only time will tell. This is the gamble the Yankees took last summer. Have they turned this rehab into a two-year situation?
Meanwhile, the Yankees really need Pineda and Eovaldi to kick ass. CC has to give them innings and consistency. Warren has to hold the fort until Nova is ready. This rotation can still be very solid even if Tanaka has to battle for every out.
jon abbey said:
No ... just no. This is not about being a Yankee apologist. This is being willfully ignorant of the situation.
To pretend there is nothing wrong is insane. This is not normal and this is not where this pitcher should be if he is starting in MLB. They rushed him back last year for unknown reasons and he looked like dog shit. Now he does not have his full arm strength whether it be because a) he is afraid his arm will explode or b) he is building strength but his arm is not ready yet.
He did not look like a pitcher you want taking the mound yesterday. He was not a complete disaster but he certainly was not 100%. At best he needed more time, maybe an extended spring training, maybe some time in AAA. At worst he is injured and they dicking around with him yet again.
I understand the Yankees have dick all for depth and it is too early for one of those throw shit against the wall and watch it once again magically stick SP runs. But at the end of the day Tanaka is someone they are banking far more of in rebuilding their team in the future than trying to squeeze all they can at 80% of him and risking his future now.
Edit - Trying to pretend Eovaldi and Pineda aren't huge ass wild cards themselves, now that is being a Yankee apologist
Thanks, Jon. I think the past few years have beaten into Yankee fans the idea that there are very few certainties on this roster. We're in the wishin' and hoping stage until new talent emerges and proves itself. JA has been predicting this for the past three years. Yanks are rebuilding, transitioning while bad contracts work their way to completion over the next three years. It seems like pitching is the one area where this team can be competent this season. If ... Pineda and Eovaldi can step up. That's a big if.
It's true, every player in the lineup is coming off a long layoff and injury rehab with only half a year of MLB performance on their record before that while attempting to seriously revamp their approach. It's exactly the same thing.
It's nice to be talking baseball again. Maybe in a few weeks we will be thinking about next year when the kids get a chance. I would be happier right now if Refsnyder were playing second base but that will happen in due course. Perhaps he detracts from the fine infield defense but the Yankees are going to learn real soon they need more hitting in the bottom third of the lineup.
Harper sort of backtracked on his Tuesday column. Says he's not a doctor and that maybe there is a translation issue here. I bet Cashman reamed him out, privately.jon abbey said:
jon abbey said:
Dude - it's not informed medical opinions, it's discussion on a message board. Either end of that discussion is legit, right up until you say 'please act like you've seen baseball before'. I mean that statement is in itself pretty ridiculous regardless of circumstance, but then specifically in this case it's krazy (with a k, that's how kray). We're living in a world where there's almost an inevitability that pitchers (or fucking catchers!) are going to get a TJ, and that's on dudes who aren't literally pitching through in an attempt not to get one.
Not sure it's worth the trouble, Jon. The two sides of this discussion have dug into their foxholes.jon abbey said:
On a related note, Pineda threw around 28 percent fastballs tonight, according to FanGraphs. Roughly the same as Tanaka did on Monday. Difference is, Pineda's breaking stuff is hard and always moving. Tanaka, who only had one bad inning in the opener, is spinning his breaking stuff. Only his splitter looked sharp on Monday. The homer to EE was a two-seamer that backed up into his happy zone. Let us see if he can fix his breaking stuff. He can survive if he does.
I think he backed off because while the old guard were writing their chicken little pieces, the new guard wrote their pieces backed up by pitch fX data showing that Tanaka's velocity was on par give or take a decimal from last year.terrynever said:
Which also revealed that the issue is not velocity, it's whether Tanaka decides to throw his 4 seamer and use that velocity.
So Pineda continues to be exceedingly effective whenever he is out there, which obviously is the ongoing question with him, just 76 innings from 2012-2014 combined (all in 2014).
But I think his effectiveness has been a bit overlooked. I'm not saying that the two are actually comparable, but it's worth noting that Pineda's career WHIP is 1.015 (0.825 last year in 76 innings) and Kershaw's is 1.060 (0.857 last year in 198 innings). Also the Yankee broadcasters said tonight that Pineda had the lowest BB/9 for any Yankee in history in 2014 (minimum 75 IPs), breaking David Wells' record. I had no idea.
But I think his effectiveness has been a bit overlooked. I'm not saying that the two are actually comparable, but it's worth noting that Pineda's career WHIP is 1.015 (0.825 last year in 76 innings) and Kershaw's is 1.060 (0.857 last year in 198 innings). Also the Yankee broadcasters said tonight that Pineda had the lowest BB/9 for any Yankee in history in 2014 (minimum 75 IPs), breaking David Wells' record. I had no idea.
If he's building arm strength and has a partial UCL tear, and your chances this season depend to a reasonable extent on this guy being able to stay healthy why would you pitch him?
He's fine he just isn't ready to go yet, so you put him out there versus one of the best lineups in baseball because?
He's fine he just isn't ready to go yet, so you put him out there versus one of the best lineups in baseball because?
LondonSox said:
I mean, I'm guessing to an extent, but I think it's a combination of things:
1) Communication between Tanaka and NY is less than ideal, as is the case for many Japanese players. I don't think it's terrible, it's just not perfect.
2) He is essentially revamping the way he wants to pitch and needs to go against big league hitters in real games to make that work, extended spring training games won't really help much.
3) Arm strength is probably not really the issue, since he is throwing his splitter at 87, at least any more than it is for most pitchers who aren't really in mid-summer form in the first week of April. Since the splitter is his best pitch, maybe that is the pitch to keep an eye on for his velocity.
I think maybe the main reason Tanaka is possibly a pretty unusual case is that (keeping in mind he still has only about a half season total sample size in MLB) the harder he throws, the straighter it is and the more it gets hammered. This was again the case Monday when the hardest pitch he threw (93) got roped into RF for a two run single by Martin.
So I think despite the fact that it obviously gives him less margin for error, he still feels his best shot at success going forward is to try to work at 91 or 92 but with increased movement. Honestly I think that the UCL tear is pretty much a non-issue for him at this point, and he would be attempting this transition anyway. No pitcher wants to cut down the potential range of their velocity if at all possible, but I think Tanaka has understandably decided that he needs to at least try and maybe it's his best chance for success going forward.
jon abbey said:
Why would that be worth noting? Seems like cherry picking a single stat against a guy that has 5 full seasons in the majors and a guy that has one 170 IP season 4 years ago.
Because I don't think Pineda has gotten enough credit for how good he's been when he actually pitches, he has been ace level. I didn't need to cherry pick a single stat to show that either, his ERA was 1.89 last year, he only walked 7 guys all year, etc.
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