NY rotation 2015

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glennhoffmania

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jon abbey said:
There is little I hate more than coming off as a Yankee spokesman/apologist on this site (and I don't think I do very often)
 
Good one.
 

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terrynever said:
Thanks, Jon. I think the past few years have beaten into Yankee fans the idea that there are very few certainties on this roster. We're in the wishin' and hoping stage until new talent emerges and proves itself. JA has been predicting this for the past three years. Yanks are rebuilding, transitioning while bad contracts work their way to completion over the next three years. It seems like pitching is the one area where this team can be competent this season. If ... Pineda and Eovaldi can step up. That's a big if.
 
Sorry I wasn't pointing anyone out.  A lot of people are predicting they will break out which I think is a bit of stretch.
 
To be honest the Yankees should be trying to get Pineda and Eovaldi through a full season, hoping McCann can have a good season, trying to make sure Tanaka is healthy for next season.  If they can get anything at all for Beltran, Teixeira, Sabathia, or god forbid ARod they should desperately try dump their corpses this season.  They probably won't be able to.  They may have to burn 2016 as well.
 
But the real thought should be they could have a great pitching base 2016- with Tanaka, Pineda, Eovaldi, and Nova all in their primes.  They also have a solid bullpen locked up (bullpen can fluctuate but still not a bad position).  I think they should go after Cespedes next offseason (I think Judge will end up a high OBP 1B/ Corner OF like Cuddeyer).  I also think they should see if the Cubs would give up Starlin Castro for any package that doesn't include Judge or Severino.  I would move either him or Didi to 2B
 

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jon abbey said:
 
I mean, I'm guessing to an extent, but I think it's a combination of things: 
 
1) Communication between Tanaka and NY is less than ideal, as is the case for many Japanese players. I don't think it's terrible, it's just not perfect.
 
2) He is essentially revamping the way he wants to pitch and needs to go against big league hitters in real games to make that work, extended spring training games won't really help much.

3) Arm strength is probably not really the issue, since he is throwing his splitter at 87, at least any more than it is for most pitchers who aren't really in mid-summer form in the first week of April. Since the splitter is his best pitch, maybe that is the pitch to keep an eye on for his velocity.

I think maybe the main reason Tanaka is possibly a pretty unusual case is that (keeping in mind he still has only about a half season total sample size in MLB) the harder he throws, the straighter it is and the more it gets hammered. This was again the case Monday when the hardest pitch he threw (93) got roped into RF for a two run single by Martin.

So I think despite the fact that it obviously gives him less margin for error, he still feels his best shot at success going forward is to try to work at 91 or 92 but with increased movement. Honestly I think that the UCL tear is pretty much a non-issue for him at this point, and he would be attempting this transition anyway. No pitcher wants to cut down the potential range of their velocity if at all possible, but I think Tanaka has understandably decided that he needs to at least try and maybe it's his best chance for success going forward. 
 
Isn't one of the reasons TJs are up is that the splitter tends to be more damaging to the UCL than other pitches?  I remember reading something about how the finger positioning creates extra tension on the ligament (have to see if I can find a link) and the more the splitter is thrown, the more that ligament gets stretched.
 
If that's true, that could be ominous for Tanaka's continued health this season.
 

glennhoffmania

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jon abbey said:
 
I mean, I'm guessing to an extent, but I think it's a combination of things: 
 
1) Communication between Tanaka and NY is less than ideal, as is the case for many Japanese players. I don't think it's terrible, it's just not perfect.
 
2) He is essentially revamping the way he wants to pitch and needs to go against big league hitters in real games to make that work, extended spring training games won't really help much.

3) Arm strength is probably not really the issue, since he is throwing his splitter at 87, at least any more than it is for most pitchers who aren't really in mid-summer form in the first week of April. Since the splitter is his best pitch, maybe that is the pitch to keep an eye on for his velocity.

I think maybe the main reason Tanaka is possibly a pretty unusual case is that (keeping in mind he still has only about a half season total sample size in MLB) the harder he throws, the straighter it is and the more it gets hammered. This was again the case Monday when the hardest pitch he threw (93) got roped into RF for a two run single by Martin.

So I think despite the fact that it obviously gives him less margin for error, he still feels his best shot at success going forward is to try to work at 91 or 92 but with increased movement. Honestly I think that the UCL tear is pretty much a non-issue for him at this point, and he would be attempting this transition anyway. No pitcher wants to cut down the potential range of their velocity if at all possible, but I think Tanaka has understandably decided that he needs to at least try and maybe it's his best chance for success going forward. 
 
This is all such nonsense.  First of all, Girardi clarified the comments and said it's not that he's going to pitch differently- it's that he pitches differently compared to other pitchers.
 
“We asked about it; the question was asked about the velocity and everything,” Girardi said. “He said, ‘Well, I’m going to pitch different.’ What he was trying to say is, ‘I’m not a guy that throws 96, 97, 98. I use my off-speed a lot. I did last year. I’m a guy that throws sliders and splits and throws some fastballs. It’s about one-third of each one of them, in a sense.’
 
 
“I think what he was meaning to say is, ‘I’m not a flamethrower. That’s not how I pitch. I am going to pitch different than some of the other guys that throw hard.’”
 
 
Secondly, why in the world would he change his approach to pitching after how dominant he was last year before the injury unless he has physical limitations now that require him to change his approach?  And Tanaka is not an unusual case since I believe it's not at all uncommon for a pitcher to lose some movement when he throws harder.  This idea that he threw harder last year, had great results, got hurt, and decided that despite being totally healthy and pain-free he will start pitching differently to be more effective doesn't pass the smell test.
 
And no one here has a clue how much, if any, the ligament is affecting him.  There is zero basis for anyone to conclude with any certainty that "the UCL tear is pretty much a non-issue for him at this point."  Maybe that's true, and maybe he'll have 31 dominant starts in a row the rest of the season.  But as of right now it seems pretty difficult to support that claim.
 

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I don't think those Girardi comments are correct, I think that he does plan to throw more two-seamers and fewer four-seamers, or at least to try that, because of how hard his four-seamer got hit last year. 
 
"Tanaka revealed on Wednesday that he has decided to throw his two-seam fastball more this spring, a pitch that has less velocity than his four-seamer but adds downward movement. Tanaka said that he thought his four-seamer was vulnerable last season, and so he is looking to make an adjustment.
 


"The reason for the 88, 89, 90 [mph] is that I'm throwing two-seamers," Tanaka said through an interpreter. "The reason I'm not throwing [four-seamers] much is that a lot of the four-seamers were being hit last year during the regular season. So I'm doing this on purpose. I'm working on the two-seamers purposely.""
 
http://m.mlb.com/news/article/114857902/yankees-pitcher-masahiro-tanaka-working-on-improving-two-seamer
 
 

SeanBerry

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So this makes sense to you?
 
-Guy has brilliant first half in MLB. Totally dominates American League.
-Finds out he has 10-15% tear in UCL.
-Comes back and is trying NOT to to what he did last year? Y'know...when he was awesome?
 
You honestly think that's reason he's backing off the four seamer? Because it got hit? Dude... the manager is feeding you such a line of bullshit here. The four-seamer both makes the two-seamer harder to read. Why would you walk away from that? Why would you mess with the success you had in 2014?
 

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I agree that Girardi's comments aren't really accurate, I'm going off Tanaka's comments from the previous post. You can certainly take the position that he is flat out lying there, but I'm not really sure why that would be the case. You can also certainly take the position that this is a dumb decision by him, but I think that remains to be seen. 
 

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Let us see where Tanaka is after four more starts. He needs to tighten up his breaking stuff, which came in flat and spinning during the third inning on Monday. Does the elbow hamper his ability to throw those pitches, too? I suspect he will add the four-seamer when his confidence returns in his elbow. If it returns. That is the key question, isn't it? Nobody knows the outcome. Results since last September do not bode well.
 

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SeanBerry said:
So this makes sense to you?
 
-Guy has brilliant first half in MLB. Totally dominates American League.
-Finds out he has 10-15% tear in UCL.
-Comes back and is trying NOT to to what he did last year? Y'know...when he was awesome?
 
You honestly think that's reason he's backing off the four seamer? Because it got hit? Dude... the manager is feeding you such a line of bullshit here. The four-seamer both makes the two-seamer harder to read. Why would you walk away from that? Why would you mess with the success you had in 2014?
 
In JA's defense (not that he needs my defense), if Tanaka was really worried about his elbow, wouldn't he be cutting down on splitters and throwing more four-seamers?
 
Given some of the articles in the thread, it could very well be that he thinks his four-seamer is too flat and wants to throw it less.  Doesn't necessarily mean that he's right (i.e., Schilling's comment).
 

glennhoffmania

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SeanBerry said:
 
 
-Guy has brilliant first half in MLB. Totally dominates American League.
-Finds out he has 10-15% tear in UCL.
-Comes back and is trying NOT to to what he did last year? Y'know...when he was awesome?
 
 
 
This is why I don't really care what Tanaka, Girardi, or anyone says at this point.  None of it makes any sense and we'll have to see how well he pitches.  This isn't a pro-Yankee or anti-Yankee thing.  If a Sox pitcher missed a chunk of time last year with a partially torn UCL I'd be just as skeptical. 
 
Wade makes a good point about the splitter.  Maybe it really is that he simply doesn't think his four-seamer is effective enough.  But whatever he did for half a season last year seemed to work pretty well so this alleged change of repertoire sounds fishy.
 

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
In JA's defense (not that he needs my defense), if Tanaka was really worried about his elbow, wouldn't he be cutting down on splitters and throwing more four-seamers?
 
Given some of the articles in the thread, it could very well be that he thinks his four-seamer is too flat and wants to throw it less.  Doesn't necessarily mean that he's right (i.e., Schilling's comment).
 
Not always.
 
He might simply not be able to consistently hit the speeds needed to make the four seamer work. He's not reaching the same max speeds as he was before the injury. This is common with guys with tears.
 
The breaking stuff can make you more prone to tears. I honestly don't know if it can make a tear any worse? I'd imagine so?
 

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wade boggs chicken dinner said:
 
In JA's defense (not that he needs my defense), if Tanaka was really worried about his elbow, wouldn't he be cutting down on splitters and throwing more four-seamers?
 
Given some of the articles in the thread, it could very well be that he thinks his four-seamer is too flat and wants to throw it less.  Doesn't necessarily mean that he's right (i.e., Schilling's comment).
Trying to protect his elbow by throwing more splitters. Seems legit.
 

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Girardi said Ivan Nova is expected to start pitching in minor league rehab games around May 1, so presumably aiming for return around June 1 or whenever he is eligible to come off the 60 day DL.
 
https://twitter.com/LoHudYankees/status/589178552957960192
 

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So not only have Tanaka, CC and Eovaldi had easily their strongest starts in the last four games, but their likely current 6th guy in AAA, Bryan Mitchell, had his first good one also a few days ago (7 3 1 1 3 4): 
 
Tanaka (@TB) 7 2 0 0 0 8, 85 pitches 
Sabathia (@DET) 8 7 2 2 3 5, 98 pitches
Eovaldi (@DET) 7 8 1 1 1 4, 94 pitches
 
The best part of that might be the low pitch counts, all very efficient. They could of course all get shelled next time out, but a very promising four days for the NY rotation. 
 
 

rembrat

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So where does the "looks like we suck and you were right JA" line start because Tanaka's elbow is still not blown up.
 

SeanBerry

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I haven't seen Tanaka's last 2 starts but I'm shocked he's having success based on what I saw earlier. Sabathia's had more success then I thought he'd have too. 
 
I've been wrong about Tanaka thus far but let's see how he looks when teams have seen him once already this year. Or maybe he'll keep getting comfortable with the weapons he has.
 
Or the tear finally gets worse.
 

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Thank you, rem.
 
https://twitter.com/based_ball/status/591359043320418306
 

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jon abbey said:
Capuano and Nova both getting closer to returning. I know it always works itself out, but there is a roster crunch coming if everyone stays healthy.
 
http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/04/27/ivan-nova-chris-capuano-new-york-yankees/
Warren hasn't had great starts, but Capuano doesn't seem like an upgrade.  I'd stick with the Warren for a little longer--unless one of the late inning relievers gets hurt and you can move Warren into an important role.  The Yankees still say Nova won't be back until June. If he's 100% then he's likely the fifth starter. 
 

jon abbey

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They are calling it a sore wrist on the YES telecast and saying his shoulder is fine, FWIW. 
 

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 Jon about 7 writers have the news as it were on twitter and the twitter universe has been asking aloud when if ever will the YES announcers announce it.
 
I have no idea what the real truth is, but the YES version of it seems to make it sound like nothing, the twitterverse makes it sound like....something that could be a result of pitching with a bad arm causing stress and problems to pop up in other areas.
 
Of course, I guess we will see what it is when we see what it is....
 
 
MLB: Yankees P Masahiro Tanaka to be placed on 15-day disabled list with wrist tendinitis and mild forearm strain http://es.pn/scappandroid 
 

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cheekydave said:
 Jon about 7 writers have the news as it were on twitter and the twitter universe has been asking aloud when if ever will the YES announcers announce it.
 
I have no idea what the real truth is, but the YES version of it seems to make it sound like nothing, the twitterverse makes it sound like....something that could be a result of pitching with a bad arm causing stress and problems to pop up in other areas.
 
Of course, I guess we will see what it is when we see what it is....
 
David Cone doesn't play that way, he reports the facts when they have them. They are talking about it now.

In fact, Kay just read the tweet I linked above on the air. 
 

cheekydave

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Jon I agree with you Cone is a straight shooter
 
I am not a betting man but I like charity. Dollars to doughnuts Tanaka has Tommy John this year, it is just a matter of time, and his arm will break down as IMHO he is protecting it, changing styles angles etc, and the result will be this break down. Pick the charity and the amount, I would be happy to be wrong and make a donation
 

jon abbey

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If you're talking to me, I stopped betting on sports twenty years ago, I just don't do it. You might be right, though, although I think pitching in 34 degree weather last time out probably didn't help and of course pitchers get hurt every day, many of whom have no previous issues.  
 

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I dont bet either Jon, and yes it could be coincidence, and yes pitchers get hurt all the time so who really knowswhat will happen, but if I was a betting man!!
 

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Reinforcements are a few weeks away so the timing is not good. Yanks have solid rotation depth with Whitley, then Capuano in a couple of weeks, Nva in June and maybe Severino in August.

Tanaka's sore wrist, forearm, whatever, likely the result of compensating for the elbow. Inevitable is a good way to describe what's next.
 

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terrynever said:
Inevitable is a good way to describe what's next.
 
This isn't what the Yankees think, if you just heard Cashman talk about it on YES. 
 

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jon abbey said:
 
This isn't what the Yankees think, if you just heard Cashman talk about it on YES. 
Contradicts that tweet above, doesn't it?
 

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MakMan44 said:
Contradicts that tweet above, doesn't it?
 
Yeah, Cashman spoke twice, once to the media (we got second-hand reports on this), and then he spoke directly to YES. I only saw the latter, obviously, and it's a developing situation, to an extent. 
 

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NY didn't know there was any kind of issue until earlier today, and the MRI seemingly just came back, so Cashman is figuring it out like everyone else. 
 

jon abbey

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Now evidently Tanaka is talking to the media:

https://twitter.com/PeterBotte/status/593221461260824577
 

MakMan44

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Thanks for expanding. I'm watching the Sox now, so I missed Cashman's YES appearance. 
 

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rembrat

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That tenacity is probably what makes Tanaka a great competitor. I can easily see him wanting to take the ball on 2 days rest with his shoulder out of his socket in a playoff setting. That's what I meant with my Monty Python reference... tis but a flesh wound.
 

jon abbey

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Capuano threw 59 pitches in his first rehab start in high A, 4 2 1 0 0 4. Evidently Girardi said he thinks he will only need two more starts after this before he's ready to join NY. 
 

jon abbey

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Also, no news on Tanaka, which is to be expected. It's been a week since he was shut down and he was expected not to do anything but try to heal for 7-10 days, Girardi said that is what's happened so far.
 

jon abbey

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Tanaka has thrown 5 bullpens since my last post and is scheduled to make his first rehab start in AAA on Thursday.
 

jon abbey

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Tanaka's AAA rehab start being televised on YES tonight since NY is off, he is on a 45 pitch count. 
 

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Tanaka got hit around in AAA by Pawtucket today, but got to 62 pitches. So it probably depends on how Capuano looks this time through whether they give Tanaka one more start in AAA to stretch him out, or maybe he'll be activated either way. 
 

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Tanaka rejoining the team on the West Coast, and will start in Seattle early next week, in the June 1-3 window. So it was very close to Cashman's initial window, as quoted below:

 
ThePrideofShiner said:
 
Mark Feinsand ‏@FeinsandNYDN  1m1 minute ago
With Tanaka shut down for 7-10 days, Cashman said "Let's conservatively say he's down for a month." Said it could be a little less or more.
 
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