NY roster 2020

jon abbey

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I presume it is Matt Duffy's choice if he does not make the initial 30 man team if he wants to go to Scranton as a potential reinforcement, but there is no way he should come close to sniffing the 30 man IMO. He was 0-4 with 3 Ks and a fielding error at 3B today, Estrada and Wade should both be ahead of him.
 

jon abbey

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4 days to Opening Day, let me try this again. Cessa is back, I'm going to assume he can be ready by Thursday or at least soon after.


Lemahieu (2B)
Judge (RF)
Torres (SS)
Stanton (DH)
Hicks (CF)
Sanchez (C)
Voit (1B)
Urshela (3B)
Tauchman/Gardner (LF)

Additional bench: Andujar, Estrada, Wade, Higashioka, Ford

Down to 15 position players, NY could go even lower. I guess Ford would be the next dropped but wow would that be tough to see. Wade is the best backup SS and pinch-runner, and he plays six positions.

Cole
Paxton
Happ
Montgomery
Schmidt

King
Deivi
Loaisiga
Cessa
Heller
Holder
Green
Ottavino
Kahnle
Britton

15 pitchers without Tanaka and Chapman. Tanaka should be back a week or so in, at which point NY can drop Schmidt and gain a year of service time (it will only take a few days, we are going to see a lot of callups around 4 days in). Heller and Holder would be prime shuttle candidates, both have options left.
 

jon abbey

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Nick Nelson looked much better than Deivi today, I will flip those two on my projected roster. Interesting to compare them, Deivi turned 21 in May and Nelson is 24 1/2. Both pitched in AA Trenton and AAA Scranton last year, with more innings in Trenton, and Nelson was way better except for K rate and that is just because Deivi's was off the chart.

AA 2019:

Garcia: 53.2 innings of 3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 87 Ks (!!!!)
Nelson: 65 innings of 2.35 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 83 Ks



Also NY gets an extra year of control if Deivi is not up all season, and that is a much bigger deal with guys as young as him. Kriske is interesting to keep an eye on also, no one ever talks about him but they did protect him on the 40 man and moved guys like Tarpley and Chance Adams before him, and he is the only true reliever of the prospects list. Again, I think the 40 man will be a huge factor for NY this year that people maybe don't realize yet, unless there is a way to clear spaces that I'm not aware of. NY can use guys like Hale, but like the last couple of seasons, they get to call him up once and then he has to stick or be DFAd. Again, I don't know if the rules about claiming guys have changed for 2020.

Cole
Paxton
Happ
Montgomery
Schmidt

King
Loaisiga
Cessa
Nelson
Heller
Holder
Green
Ottavino
Kahnle
Britton

Pretty excited for Loaisiga and King, check out the stat Eno Sarris unearthed on Loaisiga in today's Athletic:

"Using Driveline Baseball’s Stuff metric (a stat that attempts to use only pitch movement, velocity and spin characteristics to estimate the quality of a pitch), and STATS Perform’s Command+ metric, here are the only starting pitchers that are at least 8 percent better than league average in both regards: Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Jonathan Loaisiga.

José Berríos, Brandon Woodruff and Zack Wheeler are within a rounding error of joining that top trio."

 

jon abbey

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It's a 30 man roster for Thursday but it has to drop to 28 in two weeks and then 26 two weeks after that, so to me that would seem to make it even harder for guys not on NY's 40 man currently (like Duffy and Iannetta and Hale) to make the opening 30, as there is no chance barring injuries that they should be on the 26.

Not losing depth when he doesn't absolutely have to is always a big focus for Cashman, often to a fault, but this season especially it probably makes sense to stockpile as much depth as they can. There is a 40 man spot for Schmidt (Severino's) and I would add him and then just send him down after a turn or two if Tanaka is back and no one else goes out. He should be on the roster a lot this year though so might as well add him now.
 

Marciano490

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Who do you think has the best upside - Green, Loaisiga or Medina? I remember you being a big fan of Medina’s, but has Green’s curveball or Loaisiga’s recent performance bumped either of them up for you?
 

jon abbey

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Who do you think has the best upside - Green, Loaisiga or Medina? I remember you being a big fan of Medina’s, but has Green’s curveball or Loaisiga’s recent performance bumped either of them up for you?
For just this season? Medina has big SP potential by maybe 2022 or 2023 but I think is unlikely to be called up this year, maybe in a reliever emergency. With him, I always think back to BA awarding him both the best fastball and curve in the entire organization when he was like 19.

Eno Sarris in that same 'bold prediction' piece above guessed that Loaisiga would lead NY in wins this year, and yeah, Chad Green seems to maaaaybe have finally added the second pitch in that curve which could make him even better (his 2019 numbers are deceptive as you should just throw out the first few weeks before he was sent down, fixed, and recalled, he was amazing the rest of the year with basically just a fastball). We have heard that before with Green though, we need to see him throw it effectively in real games, or as real as 2020 games will get.

For 2020, Green is the surest thing (he could even get saves occasionally with Chapman out), Loaisiga has the most upside (he can go 3-4 innings and I think they will keep Green more to 1-2), Medina is unlikely to be a factor.

Also I would watch Mike King closely, that dude can pitch and has a long history with Matt Blake, I think they have been working together for 4-5 years already. He was out most of 2019 but is back full strength (hitting 95 the other day), and his 2018 stretch run was as dominant as you will ever see for a month in AAA, only 5 total ERs allowed in 6 starts, a 1.15 ERA and a .147 BAA. That was the end of his age 23 season, he just turned 25 in May and is raring to go.

 

jon abbey

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And now we learn that Michael King has made the 30 man roster, Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt are optioned (Schmidt's is more about service time, he seems ready now to help).
 

jon abbey

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NY is planning a bullpen game in the 5th rotation spot the first time through, likely Tanaka will be back second time through. Boone said King, Green and Loaisiga are candidates to open.
 

jon abbey

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OK, so Avilan, Hale, and Iannetta were all added to the 40 man and made the team, Montgomery is down to start but just because they won't use him for the first week or so. So I think this is the 30 man team for Thursday?

Lemahieu (2B)
Judge (RF)
Torres (SS)
Stanton (DH)
Hicks (CF)
Sanchez (C)
Voit (1B)
Urshela (3B)
Tauchman/Gardner (LF)

Additional bench: Andujar, Estrada, Wade, Higashioka, Ford, Iannetta

Cole
Paxton
Happ

King
Hale
Loaisiga
Cessa
Avilan
Heller
Holder
Green
Ottavino
Kahnle
Britton

16 position players and 14 pitchers, I knew they wouldn't take as many pitchers as they were talking about last week (15-17). Tanaka will be back probably a week into the season, no update on Chapman that I've heard.
 

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OK, so Avilan, Hale, and Iannetta were all added to the 40 man and made the team, Montgomery is down to start but just because they won't use him for the first week or so. So I think this is the 30 man team for Thursday?

Lemahieu (2B)
Judge (RF)
Torres (SS)
Stanton (DH)
Hicks (CF)
Sanchez (C)
Voit (1B)
Urshela (3B)
Tauchman/Gardner (LF)

Additional bench: Andujar, Estrada, Wade, Higashioka, Ford, Iannetta

Cole
Paxton
Happ

King
Hale
Loaisiga
Cessa
Avilan
Heller
Holder
Green
Ottavino
Kahnle
Britton

16 position players and 14 pitchers, I knew they wouldn't take as many pitchers as they were talking about last week (15-17). Tanaka will be back probably a week into the season, no update on Chapman that I've heard.
I feel so sorry for Clint Frazier. The guy cannot seem to catch a break. He actually came to Spring Training in great shape both mentally and physically. He hit the ball hard and seemed really mature. Unfortunately there seems to be no room at the barn for him. It seems like his prime might be getting wasted on the Yankees. I realize as Jon states that Cashman values deep depth but does there become a point of diminishing returns in regards to players such as Frazier and others?
 

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At some point Cashman may find a new home for Frazier, but we'll see. He really had a chance to play and make his mark with all the team injuries, but it just didn't work out with his own injuries and some crappy defense.

I hope he gets more chances, preferably with another team. If he does with the Yankees that likely means things are going south with more injuries.
 

jon abbey

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I feel so sorry for Clint Frazier. The guy cannot seem to catch a break. He actually came to Spring Training in great shape both mentally and physically. He hit the ball hard and seemed really mature. Unfortunately there seems to be no room at the barn for him. It seems like his prime might be getting wasted on the Yankees. I realize as Jon states that Cashman values deep depth but does there become a point of diminishing returns in regards to players such as Frazier and others?
I feel bad for him also, but also remember that as EE said, it was his own truly dreadful defense that tanked his 2019 and that remains a giant question mark. NY could certainly trade him, but what do they need?
 

jon abbey

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I have always kept Lindor to NY in the back of my head, it seems inevitable at some point if they want him. Gleyber is a mediocre defensive SS at best (most likely, he is still young) and he could move back to 2B, but that's where it gets tricky. LeMahieu is a FA at the end of the year, hard to believe they would let him go after his 2019, but where does he play if NY wants Lindor at SS? Gleyber gets 2B and DJ could move to 3B, but Urshela and Lindor are best friends. DJ could move to 1B but Voit and Ford are cost-controlled until 2024 and 2025 respectively and there is already a logjam at DH.
 

EvilEmpire

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Lindor is a hard guy to pass on, even for DJ, so I have a feeling that Voit would somehow be the odd man out. Maybe DJ plays half his games at 1B and is otherwise the super utility guy that we all love, giving Gleyber, Lindor and Urshela a break when needed or when there is an injury. Ford gets the extra opportunities at 1B that he deserves and we really see what we have there.

There are so many injuries every year that I think keeping a positionally flexible guy like DJ over const-controlled Voit probably makes sense. It upgrades the defense at 1B a bit too.

Let's put it this way, it's a problem I'd love for the Yankees to have to figure out.
 

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I’m not quite as optimistic on Urshela repeating 2019, think Cashman will have a good opportunity to bring him back as a utility guy, move LeMahieu to 3rd, Torres back to 2nd.

But to Gio: The most optimistic projection system, ZiPS, puts him at a .327 wOBA this season. Granted we’ll see greater variance given a smaller sample size of overall games but that would put him T-94th (Wilson Ramos) among the 135 qualified batters last season. Very, very solid numbers off of Savant but we know those should be used exclusively for retrospective analysis.

I can’t imagine his pay increase will take him that much past the $2.5M he’s making this year. It’s been sometime but Toronto put him at short a few times a few seasons ago, Cleveland did so with him at 2nd in equally minuscule samples. I’d see if you could try to get him to master these positions this winter if at all possible.
 

EvilEmpire

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I'm quite happy with Gio Urshela playing the Scott Brosius role on this team, with even better defense. On a good year (like Brosius) he'll hit really well. He did last season. The defense will always play.
 

jon abbey

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So NY’s final roster for tonight is the one I listed above except Cessa is still on the Covid list and Clint Frazier took his spot.

NY is starting with 13 pitchers, but Montgomery and Tanaka will both be added within a week or so.
 

jon abbey

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Tanaka activated today and Iannetta DFAd, so let's do an update. Current 30 man roster (15 hitters/15 pitchers):

Lemahieu (2B)
Judge (RF)
Torres (SS)
Stanton (DH)
Hicks (CF)
Sanchez (C)
Voit (1B)
Urshela (3B)
Gardner (LF)

Additional bench: Tauchman, Andujar, Estrada, Wade, Higashioka, Ford

Cole
Paxton
Tanaka
Montgomery
Happ

King
Hale
Loaisiga
Nelson
Avilan
Kriske
Holder
Green
Ottavino
Britton
 

jon abbey

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I wonder if NY and MIL could resuscitate trade talks for Hader with Kahnle’s Yankee career likely over and Cain opting out for the season. NY could send Andujar or Frazier plus a few young pitchers, potentially a win/win for both teams.
 

jon abbey

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Iannetta cleared waivers, so he is off the 40 man and back to the third string catcher, waiting in Scranton, ahead of Erik Kratz.

Kriske is down and presumably Cessa will be activated in his spot, but in addition NY has to make three more roster moves in the near future. Rosters go from 30 to 28 on Thursday plus Chapman will be back before too long, so let's take a guess at what will happen.

Cole
Tanaka
Paxton
Montgomery
Happ

Loaisiga
Hale
King
Nelson
Avilan
Cessa
Holder
Ottavino
Green
Britton

LeMahieu
Judge
Torres
Stanton
Hicks
Voit
Urshela
Sanchez
Tauchman/Gardner

Bench: Gardner/Tauchman, Ford, Andujar, Wade, Estrada, Higashioka

Avilan is vulnerable but would need to be exposed to waivers and has been an adequate second lefty in the pen (third once Chapman is back but the only middle inning option).

Vulnerable guys with options remaining are Holder, Nelson, Estrada, Wade and Andujar. My guess would be the first three of those go down, Nelson deserves better but it's a numbers game. Andujar should probably go a la Clint, but I doubt he will yet. The 40 man spot to bring up Schmidt might have to be Avilan or Hale, again both deserve better.
 

jon abbey

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The fascinating part is who is coming up in the empty spot now, maybe Deivi MLB debut? Not many options who don’t need a 40 man spot.