NY roster 2017

jon abbey

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I'm starting this very early, but this is what NY is working towards now, 2017 and beyond.

With very rough guesses at arb salaries, I have their salary commitments somewhere in the $170M neighborhood, with $46M to A-Rod and CC off the books after that. Even with all of their moves lately, they don't really have many holes to fill from outside:

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C: McCann, Sanchez, Romine (even if they move McCann and/or Romine, they have Higashioka seemingly ready behind these guys)

1B: Bird, Austin (Bird is said to be ahead of schedule and will play in the AFL again)

2B: Castro (Refsnyder in AAA)

SS: Didi

3B: Headley (Andujar in AA or AAA, Austin can also play 3B in a pinch)

UI: Torreyes (Mateo and/or Torres could be in the mix here if they move fast enough, but still unlikely in 2017)

OF: Gardner/Ellsbury/Judge, Hicks as 4th OF and Frazier maybe ready mid-season (if they move Gardner, they have options like Gamel and Mason Williams and Cave, Dustin Fowler maybe not far behind and Rutherford may be a very fast mover)

DH: not a dedicated spot

P: Tanaka, Eovaldi, Pineda, CC, Severino (this is NY's big issue to deal with before the 2018 season, Eovaldi/Pineda/CC are FAs after 2017 and Tanaka has an opt-out)

RP: Warren, Clippard, Betances (they have a ton of potential options for the other spots, not really worth listing)
 

jon abbey

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So writing that all out makes me think they actually are going to go after Chapman hard, I'd maybe offer him 5/80 right off the bat and see if that does it. He is only 28, and they wouldn't lose a draft pick. Kenley Jansen is around the same age and all else being equal, I'd probably prefer him (although Chapman as a lefty is a better fit with Betances as a righty, all of these guys get everyone out), but he will cost them a first round pick so I think Chapman will be the target.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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I don't think the Yankees will sign Chapman. Theo traded an impressive package of prospects for him and will be reluctant to let him leave after two months. I suspect the Cubs will go all out to resign Chapman and will get it done. They can win a bidding war with the Yankees.

The Yankees position players (as outlined in the first post) seem weak to me. The Yankees didn't have enough offense in 2016 and will encounter the same problem in 2017 unless they upgrade. True, they will have Bird and Judge, but young players often struggle, don't blossom immediately. I think the Yankees need a more immediate upgrade, an established bat. I don't think a free agent like Cespedes (I'm assuming he opts out) fits the Yankees profile, but I could see them going after Josh Reddick, who will not cost a draft pick, should be a good fit for Yankees stadium, and would add a little thump to the lineup.
 

jon abbey

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Doesn't Reddick only play RF? No way they're signing someone and not giving Judge a chance. I don't disagree that they could use an established bat, but unless it's someone who is primarily a DH (and I don't see NY locking themselves into someone like that again unless they have to), I don't see how they fit them in. The corner outfield spots are definitely reserved for Judge (starting any day now) and Frazier (when he is ready and they can get rid of Gardner), and Cashman still wants to give Hicks ABs also, plus Ellsbury isn't going anywhere (unfortunately). Reddick would presumably require a deal of at least 3 years, and that doesn't make sense for NY IMO.
 

jon abbey

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Melancon and Kenley Jansen would be other prime closer options, Melancon won't cost a first rounder and Jansen will.
 

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Doesn't Reddick only play RF? No way they're signing someone and not giving Judge a chance. I don't disagree that they could use an established bat, but unless it's someone who is primarily a DH (and I don't see NY locking themselves into someone like that again unless they have to), I don't see how they fit them in. The corner outfield spots are definitely reserved for Judge (starting any day now) and Frazier (when he is ready and they can get rid of Gardner), and Cashman still wants to give Hicks ABs also, plus Ellsbury isn't going anywhere (unfortunately). Reddick would presumably require a deal of at least 3 years, and that doesn't make sense for NY IMO.
I would take Gardner out of the starting lineup. So, Judge and Reddick would be my corner outfielders--I'm not sure who would play LF, however. Frazier might still be a year away, but when he is ready, you have Frazier, Reddick, and Judge for two corner outfield spots and have DH open as well. They could make that work. There is also a reasonable chance that Judge or Frazier will encounter significant obstacles in the major leagues and so it is worth having some depth or an established player like Reddick especially if the Yankees want to compete for the playoffs next season.

I would trade Gardner or Hicks. I never liked the Ellsbury and Gardner combination in the lineup--the Yankees never made that work for them. They can't trade Ellsbury's contract.

They could avoid Reddick and add one of the Blue Jays bats for DH. Though, that will cost a draft pick and those guys are older than Reddick, and they bat from the right side, whereas Reddick can take advantage of the dimensions at Yankees stadium.
 

jon abbey

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Your perspective makes a lot of sense if NY is trying to seriously compete next year, but I don't think that's their primary goal. I think the telling situation is Hicks, who seems like he's gotten enough of a chance that it might be time to cut bait on him, but NY continues to give him chances because of his potential, and Cashman compared him to Jackie Bradley Jr. last week (I don't agree with this comparison, but it shows you their current thinking).

Locking into Encarnacion or Bautista at DH could be interesting, though, and that also ensures they don't go elsewhere in the division. They would probably need to dump McCann to do that, though.
 

jon abbey

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Although with Judge and Sanchez and Austin and Frazier all being RHH, they may not want to lock into a RHH DH in addition, given the short RF in the Bronx.
 

jon abbey

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Also Lourdes Gourriel could be a possibility, although they may feel like they have middle infield covered with Torres and Mateo behind Didi and Castro. He fits into their youth movement (he will turn 23 in October) much better than any MLB free agents, though. Yet another RH hitter, though.
 

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Also Lourdes Gourriel could be a possibility, although they may feel like they have middle infield covered with Torres and Mateo behind Didi and Castro. He fits into their youth movement (he will turn 23 in October) much better than any MLB free agents, though. Yet another RH hitter, though.
Let's not worry about handedness, just acquire talent.
 

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Although with Judge and Sanchez and Austin and Frazier all being RHH, they may not want to lock into a RHH DH in addition, given the short RF in the Bronx.
Torres is right handed too. They do seem to be collecting a lot of right handed bats. Though, Rutherford is a lefty.

If the Yankees see next year as a rebuilding year, then I might not sign Reddick. BUT, if the Yankees want to compete for the playoffs next year, can they really go into the season with Bird and Judge as their 3 and 4 hitters?
 

jon abbey

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Torres is right handed too. They do seem to be collecting a lot of right handed bats. Though, Rutherford is a lefty.

If the Yankees see next year as a rebuilding year, then I might not sign Reddick. BUT, if the Yankees want to compete for the playoffs next year, can they really go into the season with Bird and Judge as their 3 and 4 hitters?
But the thing is Reddick isn't going to sign a one year deal, and I think the important thing for NY is maximizing flexibility over the next couple of seasons in their position players. Of course all of their highly rated prospects won't work out, but they're definitely not going to work out if they're blocked and never get a chance.

And to answer your original question, who knows? Bird was their best hitter down the stretch in 2015.
 

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Fangraphs coincidentally wrote this same piece yesterday, I don't think it's the best piece (no mention of Tyler Austin as possible 2017 help when he is currently dominating the IL seems kind of silly, as one example), but it's here:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/an-irresponsibly-early-preview-of-the-2017-yankees/

He seems to be arguing that the Yankees should spend in the off-season in order to contend, stating that spending on aging bats isn't going to harm their long term goals. I'm in general agreement with that point. I'm referring to this statement:
if they want to contend next year, they are going to have to spend on aging bats and relievers, players who tend not to be worth their contracts when all is said and done. Fortunately for the Yankees, they can afford to write off those future expenses without writing off future contention.
He doesn't mention Reddick, who isn't quite as old as some of the other free agent bats. I think they should sign Reddick and then bring in a DH as well without giving up a draft pick.

So,

1b: Bird
2b: Castro
SS: DiDi
3b: Headley
C: McCann platooning with Sanchez
LF: Judge/Reddick
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Reddick/Judge
DH: ??? maybe a guy like P.Alvarez (assuming he doesn't cost a draft pick) or maybe go with T.Austin here (I don't know enough about him).

Frazier is young and could spend another season in the minors while providing depth at the major league level in case of injury. Torres won't be ready. Mateo won't be ready. Rutherford won't be ready.

Yeah, try to sign A.Chapman as well. Maybe R.Hill too if they can get him on a short deal.
 
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BigMike

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Yeah, try to sign A.Chapman as well. Maybe R.Hill too if they can get him on a short deal.
Every time I saw Rich Hill's name at the deadline or now, somewhere in the back of my mind I think, it's a common enough name, they must be talking about a new Rich Hill, not the guy who has started 36 games and thrown a total of 258 innings over the past 9 seasons. Even this year he missed the month of June, and is now 24 days since his last appearance.

Look if you can get him for 1 year and 12 million maybe it is worth the cost, since you might be able to deal him for a couple of good prospects at the deadline, but honestly this guy is a tease, and worse a killer, because you have absolutely NO idea if and when he will be able to pitch
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, if they could fill a SP slot with a dependable veteran on a multiyear deal and move Eovaldi or Pineda (both under contract through just 2017), that would make sense, but Rich Hill isn't that guy IMO. Also they have a bunch of internal options who are performing very well in the upper minors and will deserve chances before too long.
 

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Jon Abbey, what do you think the Yankees will do with Austin and Bird in 2017? One plays 1b, the other DH? Or does one get moved to the OF?

I suppose a 1b platoon is another option. But in that scenario, you greatly reduce Austin's at bats, not the best way to develop a young player.
 

jon abbey

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Austin can't really play 3B as anything more than an emergency, his fielding percentage there is just under .900 (!!).

Assuming everyone hits (a big assumption), I think the better Austin does, the more likely they are to move Gardner in the offseason. Then Austin can play some LF, some DH, some 1B, but he's going to need to really hit to avoid being the next Refsnyder, and Hicks is still in the mix also. And Clint Frazier should be pushing once he gets another few months of AAA ABs, maybe by May or June.

Austin wasn't in their plans until he started crushing in AAA for the last few months, so assuming Bird comes back to 2015 form, Austin also could be trade bait as part of a deal for someone like Joey Gallo or a stud SP prospect.
 
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jon abbey

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I noticed last night that Kyle Higashioka has 72 RBIs in just under 300 ABs between AA and AAA, that is amazing for anyone, let alone a good defensive C who no one talks about.
 
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They need to trade McCann and go into 2017 with Sanchez and Romine. The problem with that idea: McCann has a full no trade, a tricky option for 2019 (15 million), and is making 34 million over the next two seasons.

He would probably waive his no trade if the acquiring team agrees to pick up the 2019 option, meaning that his contract would be worth 49 million over the next 3 seasons. If the Yankees pay off a portion of that money they could probably get a really good prospect for McCann. If I'm Cashman, I trying to make a move like that in the off-season.
 

jon abbey

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They need to trade McCann and go into 2017 with Sanchez and Romine. The problem with that idea: McCann has a full no trade, a tricky option for 2019 (15 million), and is making 34 million over the next two seasons.

He would probably waive his no trade if the acquiring team agrees to pick up the 2019 option, meaning that his contract would be worth 49 million over the next 3 seasons. If the Yankees pay off a portion of that money they could probably get a really good prospect for McCann. If I'm Cashman, I trying to make a move like that in the off-season.
First of all, thank you for mentioning the 2019 option, as every single writer who talks about this doesn't seem aware of that, and it is in fact a big deal as you say.

But the Yankees have a little leverage because he needs 1000 PAs combined in 2017/2018 for the 2019 option to vest, and it's pretty clear at this point that he's not going to get those ABs in NY, barring injuries, and he would for most other teams. So I don't think the no-trade will be much of an issue, I think that the issue is how much of the deal NY is willing to swallow as you say, and what kind of return they want. ATL is moving into a new stadium next year and would love to have him back, but they're not willing to go nearly as far as Cashman would like to make that happen, at least so far. Hopefully they can find a middle ground.

Anyway, I'll be stunned if he's still with NY on Opening Day next year, Gardner is a solid bet to be moved also (Austin and Ben Gamel and Mason Williams can cover it if Frazier isn't quite ready).
 

jon abbey

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Jim Callis talks about Jordan Montgomery today, probably 7th right now on NY's SP depth chart (behind the five starting currently including Cessa/Green, and Severino in AAA):

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Montgomery, a Yankees left-hander, is one of my favorite unheralded prospects in the game's deepest farm system. I first saw him at the 2012 College World Series, where he needed just 89 pitchers to throw eight shutout innings to beat Arkansas in a do-or-die game for South Carolina as a freshman. He won all five of his NCAA tournament starts (with a 0.93 ERA) in three years for the Gamecocks before signing as a fourth-round pick in 2014.

Known as more of a finesse pitcher in college, Montgomery saw his fastball jump from 88-92 mph to 91-94 at the end of last season. His two best offerings are his lively fastball and changeup, and he also throws a curveball and cutter. Montgomery has gone 11-5 with a 2.31 ERA with a 115/42 K/BB ratio and a .240 opponent average in 120 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this year.

Montgomery's ceiling and floor are pretty close. He's unlikely to become more than a No. 4 starter, yet his track record makes it likely that he'll surface in the back of a big league rotation. Look for him to get his first shot in New York at some point next season.

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/196314020/pipeline-inbox-white-sox-alec-hansen-on-rise/?topicid=151437456
 

jon abbey

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Montgomery with his third straight scoreless start tonight in AAA, and this one was especially impressive as it was against a Pawtucket lineup that hit Severino fairly hard the night before. Montgomery's line was 7 3 0 0 1 8, and two of those hits were a bunt and a swinging bunt. He's not rule 5 eligible this offseason, so he probably won't get called up this year, but as of this second, I think he's the 6th guy for 2017, ahead of Severino.

Tanaka
Pineda
Sabathia
Green
Cessa

Montgomery
Severino

Chance Adams might slot in there somewhere also, all of a sudden NY's young SP situation looks a lot better than it did a week or two ago (Sanchez' previous experience catching Green and Cessa has to be a factor in their success this week).
 

jon abbey

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There is a commenter named 'Go Win' on the RAB site who is very knowledgable, watching multiple NY minor league games most nights. He made a comment today that I think is dead on:

"In the same way that the Yankees needed to find out this year what they had in their batting prospects next year they need to give a chance to their starting pitchers. The group of Green, Cessa, Mitchell, Severino, Montgomery, Adams and Enns (with a group led by Sheffield, Acevedo and Kaprielian about a year behind) has intriguing potential. The Yankees owe themselves to give them a long look to evaluate how much they can contribute.

In a best case scenario a few of them pan out and the Yankees have a home-grown cost controlled starting rotation for the years to come and also field a competitive team in 17. Worst come to worst they have another down season in 17 and sign a couple of starters in the following offseason which is pretty deep in terms of starting pitchers.

Rebuilds come with higher levels of uncertainty. Hopefully the front office can accept that reality."
 

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Swarzak was drafted in the second round in 2004 by the Twins, the same year Minnesota took a right handed pitcher in the sandwich round from Pawtucket. Jay Rainville was a stud prospect for two years while Swarzak plodded away in low minors. A pinched nerve in Rainville's shoulder ruined his career. He returned to real life at age 23 while Swarzak continued to work his way up, finally reaching the big leagues. It is hard for me to dislike Swarzak. He maxed out his limited talents. And it was a tough deal for Rainville but he became a policeman back home in Rhode Island and is doing well. The $850,000 signing bonus was helpful.
 

jon abbey

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Chad Green doesn't need Tommy John surgery and thinks he will be a hundred percent for spring training:

"Chad Green might not pitch again this year, but he expects to avoid Tommy John surgery and be ready for spring training.

Yankees team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad recommended that Green rehab his strained flexor tendon, but it seems his ulnar collateral ligament is not damaged after all.

“That (flexor tendon) is where the pain was coming from,” Green said. “I wasn’t getting much from the UCL. No pain, actually. It was just the flexor. Once they got the dye, (they could see the UCL more clearly). The first MRI didn’t really show the UCL all that much. The dye showed the UCL was still intact and good. It’s just a relief.”

So the plan is for Green to rehab his tendon for a few weeks. He’ll likely go on the disabled list today – mostly a technicality, like with Aaron Hicks – but Green expects to have a relatively normal winter."

http://www.lohud.com/story/sports/mlb/lohud-yankees/2016/09/07/chad-green-dodges-tommy-john-surgery/89946790/
 

jon abbey

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So I'm reading a lot of pieces about what NY needs to do in the offseason, and the one area I think they're all wrong in is that NY absolutely should not give up resources to trade for a SP. Their rotation right now is Tanaka, Sabathia, Pineda and two spots up for grabs. They have a ton of possibilities for those two spots, and I'm not even counting Severino (I think he ends up as a shutdown multi-inning bullpen guy):

Cessa
Green
Mitchell
Montgomery
Chance Adams

Whichever two of those five impress the most in spring training get the rotation spots, the other three go to AAA to wait. Meanwhile if Severino goes to the bullpen and NY can sign one of the three stud closers (Chapman, Jansen, Melancon), they quietly have a stacked bullpen again:

Clippard
Warren
Severino
Betances
Chapman/Jansen/Melancon

They need a second lefty, maybe Enns can beat out Shreve and Pazos. Signing a veteran SP is OK, but it needs to be a AAAA type who can go to Scranton and wait for an emergency. As far as SPs, besides the eight listed above, Kaprielian, Sheffield and Acevedo are not that far away, one or more could be ready by next summer.
 

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Well, I think it depends, if you can get a longterm top of the rotation type starter then in makes sense for the Yankees to make a move.

I would agree that it doesn't make sense just to find someone in the 3-4 range in the rotation
 

jon abbey

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Well, I think it depends, if you can get a longterm top of the rotation type starter then in makes sense for the Yankees to make a move.

I would agree that it doesn't make sense just to find someone in the 3-4 range in the rotation
Well, this makes obvious sense initially, but there aren't guys like that on the FA market, and I think it would be a mistake to send a handful of top prospects away for one, especially since pitchers are mostly so unreliable anyway (Sonny Gray, ahem).

Darvish is a FA after 2017 and Otani may be posted then, it would be funny/awesome if NY's best three SPs were Japanese, although it would cost a TON to sign all three, it's not like they're spending money on much else this season or next (except maybe a closer this offseason).
 

jon abbey

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So Joey Gallo was so bad in very limited time in the bigs this year (19 Ks in 25 ABs), I wonder if Texas is souring on him at all and what kind of prospect for prospect deal it would take to get him. What about something like Tyler Austin/Domingo Acevedo/Luis Torrens? Acevedo and Torrens both have a ton of upside and Austin was easily the best hitter in the International League for his two months there (1.051 OPS, league leader for the season was at .892).

Gallo has a huge strikeout issue, he makes Aaron Judge look like Jose Altuve. but the lefty power potential in YS is just so tempting, especially with a lineup likely filled with righties going forward. I would make Gallo a basically DH-only and let him stop worrying about playing the field, him in Yankee Stadium is potentially so massive, 50 HR potential to go along with possibly 250 Ks (the record is 223).

Then NY would be looking at this as a best case potential scenario in the 2018 range (obviously plenty will almost certainly go wrong, forgive me baseball gods):

Rutherford CF
Torres 3B
Sanchez C
Gallo DH
Judge RF
Bird 1B
Frazier LF
Didi SS
Mateo 2B

That is L/R/R/L/R/L/R/L/R, nicely balanced even with no switch-hitters. If you want to go even younger, you could bump Didi (26 now) for Miguel Andujar (21 now) at 3B, and move Torres back to SS. Then Bird, Judge and Sanchez would be the oldest of the remaining nine, all born in 1992. Dustin Fowler could also figure into the OF situation, he had a very nice season in CF in AA this year and doesn't turn 22 until December.
 

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So Joey Gallo was so bad in very limited time in the bigs this year (19 Ks in 25 ABs), I wonder if Texas is souring on him at all and what kind of prospect for prospect deal it would take to get him. What about something like Tyler Austin/Domingo Acevedo/Luis Torrens? Acevedo and Torrens both have a ton of upside and Austin was easily the best hitter in the International League for his two months there (1.051 OPS, league leader for the season was at .892).

Gallo has a huge strikeout issue, he makes Aaron Judge look like Jose Altuve. but the lefty power potential in YS is just so tempting, especially with a lineup likely filled with righties going forward. I would make Gallo a basically DH-only and let him stop worrying about playing the field, him in Yankee Stadium is potentially so massive, 50 HR potential to go along with possibly 250 Ks (the record is 223).

Then NY would be looking at this as a best case potential scenario in the 2018 range (obviously plenty will almost certainly go wrong, forgive me baseball gods):

Rutherford CF
Torres 3B
Sanchez C
Gallo DH
Judge RF
Bird 1B
Frazier LF
Didi SS
Mateo 2B

That is L/R/R/L/R/L/R/L/R, nicely balanced even with no switch-hitters. If you want to go even younger, you could bump Didi (26 now) for Miguel Andujar (21 now) at 3B, and move Torres back to SS. Then Bird, Judge and Sanchez would be the oldest of the remaining nine, all born in 1992. Dustin Fowler could also figure into the OF situation, he had a very nice season in CF in AA this year and doesn't turn 22 until December.
Curious what you think they're going to do with Ellsbury in this scenario
 

jon abbey

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I think they'll buy him out at some point, once they have decidedly better options. They bought out a year of A-Rod this year, I'm guessing they will end up swallowing at least two years on Ellsbury's ridiculous deal which will still have $47M left on it after 2018.
 

jon abbey

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Keith Law said in his chat today he thinks there's zero chance Rutherford sticks in CF defensively, so that would be a problem with my lineup above. Yankee related Q and As:

======================================================================

Q: What is Gleyber Torres' power ceiling? 20-25 HR's a year at his peak or is that too high?
A: I'd buy that.

Q: Could Clint Frazier hypothetically play CF?
A: No shot.

Q: Did you get to see James Kaprielian pitch last night? His velocity was reportedly back to where it was before his injury. After the lost year of development do you think he can still be a mid rotation starter?
A: Yep. I think he can be more than a mid-rotation starter. He looked ridiculous last night.

Q: Could Blake Rutherford stay in CF?
A: No shot.
 

jon abbey

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The Braves are the main team that has been rumored all along, but the Astros are the team that makes the most sense to me, they have an opening, are very right-handed, have tons of young talent to deal from, and have shown themselves willing to do that. Fingers crossed!
 

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I'm surprised the Braves aren't factoring in increased ticket and merchandise sales into bringing back McCann. It might be worth giving up a little more than on another player of equal talent
 

jon abbey

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I could be wrong on this, but while the Braves have a highly ranked farm, I think a lot of them are farther away. Presumably given the earlier rumors, Cashman is asking for someone ready to contribute now or soon, and Houston I think has more guys in that category.
 

jon abbey

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Dunno how seriously to take this but it's funny anyway:

"The Yankees are ecstatic about Gleyber Torres, who as of Saturday was leading the Arizona Fall League in hitting (.392), on-base percentage (.516) and OPS (1.182). With a week to go he may be the favorite to earn MVP honors for the AFL.

With that in mind, a major-league executive who knows Cashman well said he’s convinced the Yankees will sign Chapman, no matter what it takes to outbid the Cubs, Dodgers, or anyone else.

“He knows he has his critics,” was the way the exec put it. “He’d love to be able to pull that off — getting an uber-talent like Torres without cost, basically, if he brings back Chapman (after trading him to the Cubs in July).”

The exec laughed:

“That one would be mentioned pretty high in the obit someday, wouldn’t it?” "

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/no-panic-mets-nats-won-sign-cespedes-article-1.2870746
 

jon abbey

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Joe Girardi finished 5th in the AL manager of the year voting, which isn't interesting except that it's the seventh straight season he has finished between 4th and 6th. Consistently above average but never great, that nails Girardi's managing career nicely.
 

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Jul 15, 2005
71,125
Not sure how optimistic I am about this translating to success in the bigs, but nice to read anyway, on Jonathan Holder's ridiculously dominant 2016 season in AA/AAA:

"And, by the way, those 65.1 innings — those came in 42 appearances. Holder had 16 games in which he threw at least two innings. That’s another thing that makes him frightening. He wasn’t amazing for an inning at a time. He was amazing for longer than that. Holder was the Andrew Miller of the upper minors."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-most-dominant-pitcher-in-the-minors/