NY offseason 2015/2016

terrynever

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I am pretty much foaming at the mouth right now, counting the days until another season where the over-achieving Yankees collect around 85 wins.
 

jon abbey

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I know you guys still haven't fully gotten over the Teixeira mess (even though it eventually led to a 2013 WS for you), but when has Cashman done something he said he wasn't going to do since then? Even with that, he needed to go to ownership and beg them to change their minds and loosen the purse strings for that one specific move, and he got the OK in exchange for financial shackles for a while after that.

I think NY would make some moves if they could, I think they'd be happy to move Beltran, Ellsbury, Gardner, Headley, certainly Nova, and maybe some others too, and then fill the gaps with younger players, either already in the system or not, but they're having trouble finding matches that make sense for them which isn't surprising.
 

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The combo move that makes too much sense is trading Gardner for prospects and signing Heyward. They get younger and better, now and in the future. So please don't do this.
 

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Kozma of course can't hit at all and will be the AAA shortstop and third-string behind Didi and (ugh) Brendan Ryan, but for a 27 year old with only 689 regular season PAs, it's kind of amazing that he's played in seven postseason series already, 97 postseason PAs.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kozmape01.shtml
So after all those years of great offense and statuesque defense by Jeter, they are overreacting the other way? ;)
 

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Can one of you Yanks fans write out how you'd like to see the offseason unfold as it relates to the 2016 roster. I don't mean pipe dream offseason but how you'd like or expect it to playout based on what you're seeing. Starters, relievers, fielders, bench...
 

FanSinceBoggs

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Well, that is why trading Gardner and keeping Hicks as a 4th outfielder for the year and signing Heyward is the way to go. Then in 2017, you have an outfield of Heyward/Ellsbury/and either Hicks or Judge. Then in 2018, after ARod is gone finally, Ellsbury can become the full-time DH.
This plan makes sense to me. They can find enough plate appearances for Hicks especially when Ellsbury gets hurt again. Beltran will need days off.

The rumors concerning Miller are kind of weird, but I'm thinking the Yankees are open to promoting Betances to closer, moving Justin Wilson to 8th inning set up, and then maybe they believe the lefty Lindgren will be ready to make his mark in 2016? Alternatively, maybe they have some doubts about Miller's health going forward?

The Yankees have been kind of quiet. Perhaps this is the calm before the storm. LOL.
 

jon abbey

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Can one of you Yanks fans write out how you'd like to see the offseason unfold as it relates to the 2016 roster. I don't mean pipe dream offseason but how you'd like or expect it to playout based on what you're seeing. Starters, relievers, fielders, bench...
This is their team currently:

C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Ackley/Refsnyder
SS: Gregorius
3B: Headley
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Beltran
DH: A-Rod

bench: Sanchez/Romine, Refsnyder/Ackley, backup SS/3B (Ryan?), Hicks

rotation: Tanaka, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Sabathia (Nova in AAA?)
bullpen: ???, ???, Lindgren, Warren, Wilson, Betances, Miller

Cashman isn't going to make moves just to make moves, he wants to continue to get younger and focus on pitching and defense. If NY does make moves, they will be along the lines of trading for Gregorius and Eovaldi and Hicks, 24-25 year olds who have yet to fully live up to their potential in the bigs. If he can move Gardner in a deal he likes, then maybe there's a chance they dip into the OF FA market with a big bucks signing, but I'd put the odds of this combo happening at maybe 20-30 percent tops.

So I think this is basically the team, with guys like Bird and Judge and Mateo (2B?) waiting in the minors for their shots. NY may not go back into the big FA market until guys like Harper and Harvey and Jose Fernandez presumably get there in 2018 and 2019.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, the thing about big bucks contracts that isn't talked about enough is that it's not just the money, it's the lack of flexibility. If a guy making $2M sucks, you can release him or send him to AAA if he has options. If a guy making $15M sucks, he is virtually never released, you can either stick with him and hope he gets better or possibly use the phantom DL.

So in large part because of that, right now NY doesn't really have open spots, except maybe 2B. It's easy for people to say they should go add another SP, but much harder to figure out what to do then with the seven genuine options currently under contract (Tanaka, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Sabathia, plus Nova/Warren). Warren can be moved to the pen again (a bit of a waste but he does really help there too), Nova can be put in AAA if needed (I think anyway? He won't be happy about this but he was horrendous down the stretch last year), but if they added another option, how would that even work? Tanaka/Eovaldi/Severino aren't losing their spots, Sabathia isn't losing his for non-baseball reasons (and he was very good for a month at the end of the year), so I guess Pineda would get bumped, but where would he go? In a vacuum, I guess I'd rather have someone like Chen than Pineda, but if you add in a massive contract, really not sure it makes sense.

Anyway, I'm sure Cashman would be happy to move, and in some cases essentially give away, any position player he has making big bucks (Gardner, Ellsbury, Beltran, Headley, Teixeira, A-Rod, McCann). Headley is the only one of those where there's not a promising young alternative in-house already, although again I do think if they could move an OF, they'd seriously think about going after Heyward or maybe Upton.
 
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Montana Fan

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Thanks Abbey I can't root for the Yanks but it will be interesting to see what Cashman does over the next few years. If I'm a Yankee fan I like that he's being patient. Reloading won't help them a ton right now, two years from now, different story.
 

jon abbey

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It's definitely the smart thing to do, especially since in the post-greenie era, the majority of free agent deals seem to be almost instant millstones.

The key thing is that Hal seems to be on board, he has talked more about specific prospects in the last year than the entire Steinbrenner family probably did in the 40 years preceding.
 

FanSinceBoggs

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The article is absurd, though. The Marlins are gong to trade Fernandez for Judge, Miller, and a lower level prospect? Judge has never demonstrated he can hit Triple A pitching and so I doubt the Marlins would want him as a centerpiece of a deal for Fernandez. Judge has demonstrated that he has a long swing, perhaps too long for the major leagues, and that he strikes out too much against Triple A pitching. To acquire Fernandez, the Yankees would need to start with Severino and go from the there.
 

jon abbey

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Yeah, that's not happening from either team's perspective, agreed that the article is silly.

Cashman with a quote yesterday that I think sums up NY's current plan very succinctly, so much so that it's my new sig:

"I want young, cost-controlled everything. It doesn't matter the position."-Brian Cashman, 12/6/15
 

LondonSox

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I can't disagree with you jon.

What you thinking for next season at this point? That doesn't scream great team, and not a huge amount of obvious growth, but room for disappointment and injury. Other than the Yankee magic dust for Ackley etc.

It's not a bad rotation, though some concerns on injury especially. The lineup is ok, but not exactly scary. Decent team, but playoffs seem to need a lot of luck on injuries etc.

That's the plan? Be competitive and patient and see what young pieces might become available?
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Yeah, that's not happening from either team's perspective, agreed that the article is silly.

Cashman with a quote yesterday that I think sums up NY's current plan very succinctly, so much so that it's my new sig:

"I want young, cost-controlled everything. It doesn't matter the position."-Brian Cashman, 12/6/15
That's a nugget of wisdom. Who doesn't want young, cost-controlled players? I mean is there any doubt that players like Sonny Gray are the most valuable in baseball?

The real question is how Cashman is going to find these players going forward. I presume he believes that his international free agency binge is going to provide 3 or 4 of these guys. But that loophole is closed for the next couple of years, and I don't think he's demonstrated any special talent (over and beyond any GMs) for finding players in the draft.

It's funny. Cherington hordes his prospects and can't get ownership to approve more than $135M for Lester. A year later, and what hopefully are breakout seasons from 3 or 4 to them, Dombroski gets the go ahead to drop $217M on Price. I wonder if Cashman and Ben talk regularly. . . .
 

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That's the plan? Be competitive and patient and see what young pieces might become available?
I think so. Their roster is pretty set, but they can see the light at the end of the tunnel for some of their older, more expensive contracts. Be patient, see how kids on the farm develop, and hope to be competitive enough while waiting out those contracts without compromising the flexibility that's just around the corner.
 

Wingack

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I can't disagree with you jon.

What you thinking for next season at this point? That doesn't scream great team, and not a huge amount of obvious growth, but room for disappointment and injury. Other than the Yankee magic dust for Ackley etc.

It's not a bad rotation, though some concerns on injury especially. The lineup is ok, but not exactly scary. Decent team, but playoffs seem to need a lot of luck on injuries etc.

That's the plan? Be competitive and patient and see what young pieces might become available?
Well on the pitching side of things at least, the Yankees have some room to dream with their current rotation. Let's just imagine that Tanaka stays healthy, Severino continues to prove that he is the real deal and Pineda and Eovaldi really bust through the door with their talent. I would call that the best top 4 in the AL East (especially if Tampa trades Cobb). At the same time it could all not break that way.

The offensive side is more troubling, given the age and health of some of the main pieces there.

All that being said, I fully support Cashman's plan of getting younger everywhere and I hope that stays his plan for the next couple of years.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I think so. Their roster is pretty set, but they can see the light at the end of the tunnel for some of their older, more expensive contracts. Be patient, see how kids on the farm develop, and hope to be competitive enough while waiting out those contracts without compromising the flexibility that's just around the corner.
Another wild card berth is certainly in reach. There will be some decline, but there might also be some growth from young players or bounce back years from guys like Ellsbury and Nova. Maybe even Sabathia.
 

jon abbey

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The real question is how Cashman is going to find these players going forward.
Well, pretty clearly the idea is to trade for guys who have fallen out of favor in their current situations so he doesn't have to give up top prospects in exchange. Last offseason he got Gregorius and Eovaldi, then Ackley at the deadline and Hicks this offseason. All four of those guys are between 25-27 and under control for multiple years (Eovaldi and Ackley can be FAs after 2017, Didi and Hicks after 2019).
 

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That is what I am seeing on Twitter. I know some people wouldn't do this move but I think I said somewhere in this thread earlier that I would. And I would follow that up with signing Hayward to take Gardner's spot. That is a good way to get younger in two spots really quickly. I also like Castro's contract he is signed through 2020.

Edit: Actually scratch that, Gardner apparently is not part of the talks. Which I guess would be good if they are able to acquire Castro and are able to spin Gardner somewhere else.
 
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jon abbey

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Warren makes sense also, if CHI really is going to sign Zobrist, they will probably sell slightly low to clear the spot.
 

jon abbey

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If they move Gardner for a 2B, that also bumps Ackley into the OF much more, They'd have Hicks, the remnants of Ellsbury and Beltran plus Ackley, with Judge presumably close, so I still don't know if you go market rate on Hayward.
 

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I guess the wildcard in the situation is would Epstein have any interest in Ellsbury at all? There is a connection there and the Cubs could afford him.

It is far fetched but they are talking about multiple scenarios.
 

jon abbey

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OK, so assuming Brendan Ryan is the PTBNL as I've seen but not seen fully confirmed, here is where NY stands after the Castro deal:

C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Castro
SS: Gregorius
3B: Headley
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Beltran
DH: A-Rod

bench: Sanchez/Romine, Ackley, backup 3B, Hicks

rotation: Tanaka, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Sabathia (Nova in AAA?)
bullpen: ???, ???, ???, Lindgren, Wilson, Betances, Miller

=======================================

Castro can back up SS, I guess Ackley can backup 1B and 2B and be a 5th OF. I don't think they can carry Refsnyder if these 12 guys are healthy, they need someone who can play backup 3B, so he can join Bird and Judge at Scranton, waiting for their chances.

Also losing Warren hurts the depth of the pitching staff, they are now back to desperately needing that second RH reliever that they couldn't find all last season until switching Warren there. Bryan Mitchell is maybe a possibility, although he has been more promise than results so far. Also this probably means they need to keep Nova, not that there was presumably much of a market for him anyway. Kaprielian will likely move very fast through the minors, but even the most optimistic case probably wouldn't have him in the bigs before 2017.
 

jon abbey

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Ryan is the PTBNL, but NY agreed not to announce that until after the rule 5 draft so the Cubs can save a 40 man spot temporarily.
 

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Yankees have apparently shown an interest in Astros righty Vincent Velasquez to flip for Ozuna, according to George King (so ya know...)

Though the talks haven’t advanced to getting a deal done, a person with knowledge of the situation said Tuesday at the Winter Meetings the Yankees could be planning to acquire Velasquez and deal him to the Marlins for outfielder Marcell Ozuna.

The Astros are looking for a closer and Andrew Miller is certainly that, having converted 36-of-38 save chances last season, his first as a closer. Should the Yankees move Miller, Dellin Betances would shift from the eighth inning to the ninth.

However, while Cashman remains “open to anything’’ with regard to dealing Miller, who has three years and $27 million remaining on a team-friendly deal, doing so for a pitcher with 19 big league games under his belt is risky. Unless the Yankees believe flipping Velasquez into Ozuna is a move they like. Should that happen, the Yankees could deal Brett Gardner for a starting pitcher.
I like Ozuna but I don't think I would deal Miller for him. I would however deal Miller for Velasquez and maybe another piece.
 

jon abbey

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Their bullpen is already thin after moving Warren, dunno what the plan there would be if they moved Miller too.
 

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It would be for sure, but the bullpen is something that might need to be sacrificed for the greater good to acquire cheap young talent.

Also, sometimes bullpens are the last thing to come together.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman on MLBN now, I will report back if he says anything new and interesting.
 

jon abbey

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Cashman didn't say anything too new, although he did reconfirm that the plan for Bird is to be in AAA as long as Tex is healthy (or A-Rod presumably). They didn't ask him about Wilson, as they didn't seem to know about that yet.
 

jon abbey

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OK, Justin Wilson gone, so updating again:

C: McCann
1B: Teixeira
2B: Castro
SS: Gregorius
3B: Headley
LF: Gardner
CF: Ellsbury
RF: Beltran
DH: A-Rod

bench: Sanchez/Romine, Ackley, backup 3B, Hicks

rotation: Tanaka, Eovaldi, Severino, Pineda, Sabathia (Nova in AAA?)
bullpen: ???, ???, ???, Shreve, Lindgren, Betances, Miller

=======================================

Not so sure what the plan is in the bullpen, probably still more moves to be made, but guys like Lindgren and Shreve and Pazos and Rumbelow and Barbato seem like they'll certainly be given every shot to make the roster now. They are super unproven after Betances and Miller, though, at this point.
 

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That lineup doesn't look too bad. Decent offensively and defensively. There are some questions to be answered on the pitching side but the Yanks won't be pushovers this year.
 

jon abbey

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As I said on the Castro thread just now, both Cashman and Castro seemed very confident today that Castro could play 3B if necessary, so that maybe means backups for all positions are covered with the first 12 guys and the last bench position can just be the best hitter they can find, even maybe a second DH-only on a one year deal.

Backups:

1B: Ackley I guess in an emergency, Bird up from AAA if it's anything longer-term
2B: Ackley, Refsnyder presumably in AAA. Castro has been an iron man so far, but if he has to go on the DL, not sure who would backup SS.
SS: Castro
3B: Castro
C: Sanchez or Romine (Cashman was talking about 'unleashing the Kraken' regarding Sanchez this week, so hopefully it is him)
LF: Hicks, Ackley
CF: Gardner, Hicks
RF: Hicks, Ackley

If you're not going for a big lefty HR bat off the bench, Slade Heathcott or Mason Williams are other interesting possibilities, and that way even if Ellsbury or Gardner is out, you can put a defensive replacement in for Beltran whenever you want. Also if either A-Rod or Beltran goes on the DL, you can bring up Judge for RF.
 

jon abbey

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Two of the first three Rule 5 picks are Yankees, Jake Cave (expected) and Evan Rutckyj (a surprise). Cave can probably stick as a 4th OF in Cin (NY had a bunch of those already in Mason Williams, Slade Heathcott and Ben Gamel), Rutckyj is a tall lefty reliever who has had control problems and it'll be surprising if even the rebuilding Braves can keep him on the roster all season.
 

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Yankees apparently asked the Astros for McCullers for Miller and instead they went for the VV package for Giles. Also, talks with Dodgers about Miller right now "have no legs."
 

jon abbey

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It doesn't fit with anything Cashman has done the last two years, but the more I think about it, the more I would try to get Pedro Alvarez on a big one year deal ($12-15M?). That would give NY a real backup at 3B and 1B and a huge LHB, insurance if Headley starts sucking again. That might not be enough but he could put up a nice HR/AB ratio, spend a year back home in the Bronx and then go back out on the market next year, this time without Chris Davis in his way. His agent is Boras, though, so not holding my breath.
 

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...Let's just imagine that Tanaka stays healthy, Severino continues to prove that he is the real deal and Pineda and Eovaldi really bust through the door with their talent. I would call that the best top 4 in the AL East (especially if Tampa trades Cobb)...
Steamer currently projects the Yankees as the 2nd best rotation in the League (behind the Indians).

If their lineup stays healthy and performs at or above expectations, they are definitely in the playoff race (assuming they never need more than 2 relievers in a game)