NY minor league prospect news (2013 edition)

[jon abbey]

The Yankees have been great at developing minor league RELIEF talent but my lord are they awful at developing real starting pitching talent.

 
Well, Ian Kennedy and Zach McAllister have done well elsewhere, and David Phelps was doing very well until tonight. NY has been pretty bad at developing guys for their own rotation, but in their slight defense, that is harder when you're a playoff team every year. 

 

[LondonSox]

Lester, buchholz, doubrant, or the entire rays starting staff say reallllllllly

That's a rather dubious post ja, I mean the rays since they have been good have made a stab at doing this year after year.
With the difference for both sox and Yankees being that if they develop one they can keep them, which significantly reduces the number required over time.

You currently have 3/5 of the red sox rotation being farm developed and I forget but I think 5/5 of the rays.
Both have been constantly competing for the playoffs for a number of years just like the Yankees.

The Yankee farm looks like a pretty huge issue right now, the Yankees are rolling out low talent guys with limited or no upside.
When cano was called up he wasn't expected to be this amazing but good enough to be given a long rope when an opportunity presented. This is a the perfect time to do this, the bar to outperform wells etc is almost non existent, but they don't seem to have any options.
The sox look LOADED at AAA right now other than the middlebrooks issue (which is of course the exact issue you refer too, although personally I think he was never ready and got lucky). The rays just called up Myers, who might be the second best hitter on the team.

Of course the Pineda injury was horrible luck and the youth might look a little differently.
But the development of youth, despite some hype, outside the bullpen is pretty worrying I would think.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm talking about much-longer term, LS, NY has been in the playoffs every year but one since 1996. It's not an excuse, I've given them a hard time about this in the past, but don't tell me there's any skill involved in developing David Price, a #1 overall pick . Also NY drafted Gerrit Cole but couldn't get him to sign, unfortunately.
 
But yeah, NY is a disaster of an organization in pretty much every way currently, and the recent CBA will make it even harder for them to dig out. I certainly wasn't defending them, they've been running on fumes in some ways for close to a decade now and it's no surprise it looks like it's finally at an end. 

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I'm talking about much-longer term, LS, NY has been in the playoffs every year but one since 1996. It's not an excuse, I've given them a hard time about this in the past, but don't tell me there's any skill involved in developing David Price, a #1 overall pick . Also NY drafted Gerrit Cole but couldn't get him to sign, unfortunately.

But yeah, NY is a disaster of an organization in pretty much every way currently, and the recent CBA will make it even harder for them to dig out. I certainly wasn't defending them, they've been running on fumes in some ways for close to a decade now and it's no surprise it looks like it's finally at an end.



I'm not sure I fully agree, although I'm 90% of he way there. It needs to be noted that part of the reason the Yankees develop such good relief pitching is because they draft high upside high risk pitchers in the draft. They've been doing it for years and haven't had any luck with the injuries of their young pitchers. Joba, Hughes, Betances, Banuelos, Brackman...The list goes on. All of these guys were top prospects at one point or another.

I think they've done a good job drafting guys who can make an impact but a bad job protecting their arms.

 

[jon abbey]

But Joba and Hughes got screwed up specifically because they needed them in relief in pennant races, at least in part. 

 

[LondonSox]

That suggests a failure of either drafting of development though. If you are drafting guys who have good potential constantly yet none are making it. You are either screwing them up in the development process or failing to draft the right guys period.
It's a little hurt by the unfair hype Yankee prospects get, which is good and bad. Good in that it raises value, bad in that it creates pressure and expectation on both players and fans.

Kennedy is an interesting example, he was given a chance only to fail be traded and then launch into a career. He speaks to the difficulty of playing in the al east and JA's point about being in constant contention, there is only do much rope to give a prospect.

I would hope the Yankees are asking the same questions. What are we doing wrong? Is it drafting or development or integration into the big league team? Because its becoming a trend. Injuries by the way when they become a trend, of unrelated pitchers, suggest developmental issues. I think of what the red sox added in arm strengthening and testing etc when they had a string of issues, as an example of analysis leading to behaviour changes. Are there signs of similar in the farm? Or a shrug and that's unlucky.

 

[Dionysus]

But Joba and Hughes got screwed up specifically because they needed them in relief in pennant races, at least in part. 

Is that necessarily a bad development method? Or were they just the wrong guys to do that with?

Don't the Cards often break SP prospects in via the pen with success? There was a comment in a fangraphs chat a while ago pointing that its working for them. (May have been the Reds.. I don't follow NL Central enough)

 

[jon abbey]

Gary Sanchez (#34) and Rafael DePaula (#45) are on the Baseball America midseason top 50 prospects list. NY's OF prospects (Mason Williams, Tyler Austin, Slade Heathcott) are not, all are having disappointing years to one degree or another.
 
http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-prospect-update-top-50-prospects/

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

To follow up on JA's post, BA has a quick blurb up on five teams with farm systems that are rolling and five that are not.  The Yankees are in the "not" list.
 

New York Yankees: The Yankees came into the season with one of the best triumvirates of outfield prospects in the game. But Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott have taken significant steps back this year while Tyler Austin, last year’s breakout, has treaded water. Second baseman Angelo Gumbs is struggled as well. Among Yankees pitching prospects Manny Banuelos is hurt, Brett Marshall has struggled and Jose Campos has yet to flash his pre-injury velocity and stuff.

 
I think this ties into the off again on again discussion about blowing it up.  The Yankees need an infusion of good young players.  Their farm system is taking a step back from last year and the major league roster is old, hurt and declining fast.  Now, as Red Sox fans, we've seen recently that this can turn around fast if you have the resources to play with and are bold enough to make some daring moves.  Trading Teixeira, for example, might be one such move.  If they don't plan to go all out to keep Cano because they see the path back to playoff contention being longer than two years, then trading Cano at the deadline would be an incredible bold move that could turn the farm around in a hurry.
 
Regardless of what they see as their immediate future at the major league level, I have a hard time seeing the Yankees as a top 15 system in the majors when sites start ranking them over the winter.  Their draft looked pretty solid this year, grabbing three of the top thirty draft eligible prospects in BA's top 500, but there just isn't much depth on the farm right now.  Outside of Sanchez and DePaula, what are Yankees fans excited about?

 

[jon abbey]

I'm excited about Betances in the bullpen, I think he would be an upgrade on Joba right now (of course so would half the people reading this). 
 
NY can't really blow it up by offloading contracts, no one is going to take their big money guys. It would be interesting to see how an alternative universe that had BOS 25 games ahead of NY at the 2012 trading deadline played out, and whether NY would have had the balls to send CC/Tex etc. to the Dodgers (who did inquire at the time), but pretty sure that was a one-time chance and BOS grabbed it. I don't think any other team would do anything like that now, especially with Tex now being hurt. 

 

[jon abbey]

Updated top 30 NY prospect list from RAB post-draft:
 
http://riveraveblues.com/2013/07/2013-post-draft-top-30-prospects-90885/

 

[SaveBooFerriss]

Updated top 30 NY prospect list from RAB post-draft:
 
http://riveraveblues.com/2013/07/2013-post-draft-top-30-prospects-90885/

 
Besides Sanchez and the 2013 draftees, the position players are pretty unimpressive.  Maybe a couple will bounce back,  They have some nice arms, but almost every system does.  Pretty weak IMO.  

 

[jon abbey]

Yep, it's been a bad year all around for the organization, minors and majors.

 

[terrynever]

Mason Williams seems to be bouncing back. Got his average up 25 points over the last month, to .266, at Tampa. Only three homers. An OPS of .709. Doesn't walk much. Stolen base percentage is average (11-for-16). If he finishes strong, he moves up to Trenton next year. The main thing is he got his head out of his ass after the DUI incident and managed to refocus. He's no Austin Jackson but maybe a step below, a fast outfielder who might hit .300 and put pressure on defenses. The Yankees will probably be a .500 team when he arrives in 2015 or 2016.

 

[terrynever]

Got a new binky, JA. Pete O'Brien, second-round draft pick out of Miami U. Last year. OPSing to around .980 this year at Charleston and Tampa, where he is hitting .313 in 83 ABs since his promotion. 16 homers combined with both teams, 5 in Tampa. 6-foot-3 and 215 lbs. catcher and third base plus some DH, which means he must not have a good glove.

Old binky Mason Willams now up to .275. Hitting .340 since June 1 after batting .216 in May. Says a lot that he bounced back from slump and DUI.

 

[terrynever]

2013 first-round Eric Jagielo hitting .370 so far for Staten Island. Yanks need him to come thru the system fast, like two years at most. Third baseman.
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=DH&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=592429

 

[jon abbey]

NY has to make room on the roster for Dellin Betances in the pen, unscored on in his last 10 outings, with a combined line of 19 8 0 0 8 26, multiple Ks in every outing. He is out of options after this season, dump Joba already and give him a shot!!!

 

[jon abbey]

Greg Bird, NY's #18 prospect according to RAB, has 3 HRs tonight in the first 4 innings in low-A ball.

 

[terrynever]

NY has to make room on the roster for Dellin Betances in the pen, unscored on in his last 10 outings, with a combined line of 19 8 0 0 8 26, multiple Ks in every outing. He is out of options after this season, dump Joba already and give him a shot!!!

I second this motion. What's taking them so long? I guess Cash is waiting for the July 31 deadline to shake out the roster and then he brings the kid up, no matter what. If they can't trade Joba, they will release him. Everyone knows that, so why trade for him?

 

[terrynever]

I like this kid, too, Robert Refsnyder, fifth-round pick out of Arizona. Big kid with some pop who plays second base.
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=2B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=608701

 

[jon abbey]

I second this motion. What's taking them so long? I guess Cash is waiting for the July 31 deadline to shake out the roster and then he brings the kid up, no matter what. If they can't trade Joba, they will release him. Everyone knows that, so why trade for him?

 
Cashman is used to always preserving as many potential assets as possible for as long as possible, since NY is always in the race. He needs to accept that Joba is no longer an asset though, should have happened a month ago already.  

 

[terrynever]

Thing is, Joba's stuff is still good. He just never learned how to pitch. Not even sure that was a priority for him. He's a man child, eternally a kid.

A-rod ran hard tonight trying to leg out a double. Out by a whisker. Good slide. Popped up quickly. Just saw the video on YES.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, he definitely might still help someone, Jose Veras is somehow still closing and NY gave up on him in 2009. But he has no use in NY and he is blocking Betances. If Betances doesn't work out, give Mark Montgomery a shot if he's healthy, let's get the auditions for next year going at least. 

 

[Sampo Gida]

Thing is, Joba's stuff is still good. He just never learned how to pitch. Not even sure that was a priority for him. He's a man child, eternally a kid.

A-rod ran hard tonight trying to leg out a double. Out by a whisker. Good slide. Popped up quickly. Just saw the video on YES.

 
Yeah, but remember his stuff when he first came up. He was sick.  High 90's FB, high 80's slider that he commanded better than he does now.  Combination of arm problem and  conditioning I guess.

 

[jon abbey]

Greg Bird, NY's #18 prospect according to RAB, has 3 HRs tonight in the first 4 innings in low-A ball.

 
Bird with another HR tonight plus two more hits, he has a 1.592 OPS in his last ten games now including 7 HRs (.929 OPS for the season).
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?pos=1B&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=595885

 

[Wingack]

Lester...

I know this is more than a month late, but Jon Lester is terrible. He had a couple good years but really I wouldn't be much more confident running him out there then I would be with Phil Hughes.

 

[derekson]

I know this is more than a month late, but Jon Lester is terrible. He had a couple good years but really I wouldn't be much more confident running him out there then I would be with Phil Hughes.

 
Lester has a career ERA+ of 116. He had more than "a couple good years". Comparing him to Hughes is ridiculous.

 

[Wingack]

It is fair at their current production. Neither of them belong in the same conversation as the Rays guys or the other two Sox pitchers he mentioned.

You can say he is a pitcher that the Sox developed who was at one time a good pitcher but you can say the same about Pettitte for the Yankees.

 

[jon abbey]

Wingack, split this silliness off if you want to keep going, please.

 

[Wingack]

Yeah sorry I will drop it it doesn't belong here.

 

[terrynever]

Mason Williams hitting nearly .350 since June 1, over .380 in July. Singled tonight in first inning, batting behind Nix and Granderson, then got caught stealing for the ninth time in 20 tries. He must not have much skill getting leads if minor league catchers and pitchers are containing him.

 

[jon abbey]

Jose Campos, the other SP who came over in the Pineda/Montero deal from SEA and who had a dominant year in the low minors in 2011 for SEA before being hurt last year, has been on a schedule to pitch 4 innings per start in low A. The last seven of these combined have been pretty impressive: 28 22 5 5 4 27, a 1.61 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. 

 

[bosox0192]

 
Dominican center fielder Leonardo Molina, the No. 5 international prospect for July 2, has signed with the Yankees for $1.4 million.
 

 
 
http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/no-5-international-prospect-leonardo-molina/

 

[jon abbey]

Betances continues to be untouchable in relief, nothing has me more pissed off about this season than Joba still being on the team and Betances not being given a chance yet. He had his 15th straight scoreless appearance tonight, many of two innings or more, a total of 27.1 12 0 0 12 37 since the middle of June.

BRING HIM UP! DFA JOBA!!!!
 
Thx in advance.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Maybe you should start a Free Betances facebook group.

 

[jon abbey]

Heh, I have enough FB pages to run already, I will confine my bitching to here.

 

[derekson]

I think the Yankees really screwed up not moving Hughes at the deadline. I still can't believe they'll give him a QO, but maybe this is a sign that they will. Otherwise they're fools to not get something for him. 
 
On another Hughes note, if I were Girardi I would absolutely play around with the rotation as much as necessary to never start Hughes at home, even if it meant giving the occasional start to Warren or calling up someone from AAA to fill-in.

 

[jon abbey]

They have Phelps who should be back in the rotation, it's crazy that they don't seem to be thinking about next year on the field one bit, if you don't count trading for lousy outfielders with bloated contracts.

 

[jon abbey]

And the thing about Betances as I've said before, he is out of options after this year, so why not give him a few months this year and see what he's got? Obviously he'll be up in Sept but there is zero reason for Joba to be on this roster any longer, and that's been the case for a while now.
 
Yeah, I'm pissed.

 

[Sampo Gida]

And the thing about Betances as I've said before, he is out of options after this year, so why not give him a few months this year and see what he's got? Obviously he'll be up in Sept but there is zero reason for Joba to be on this roster any longer, and that's been the case for a while now.
 
Yeah, I'm pissed.

 
Agree with you on Joba.  Betances has had some issues with walks, although that seems to have settled down a bit. but I think its just a matter of time.  Might want to wait for the smoke to clear on the Arod front and get back from the WC trip.

 

[DanoooME]

I think the Yankees really screwed up not moving Hughes at the deadline. I still can't believe they'll give him a QO, but maybe this is a sign that they will. Otherwise they're fools to not get something for him. 
 
On another Hughes note, if I were Girardi I would absolutely play around with the rotation as much as necessary to never start Hughes at home, even if it meant giving the occasional start to Warren or calling up someone from AAA to fill-in.

 
Everything I read about him going into the trade deadline is that only one team (Phillies) even had a slight interest in him.  Tough to deal him without a trade partner.

 

[derekson]

Quoting terrynever from the game thread the other day:
 

 
Gary Sanchez got promoted to Trenton. Why not? He ain't hitting lately in Tampa. And he can't catch.

 
 
I was really shocked to see that they promoted him to AA. The guy is only hitting 251/.311/.417 (105 wRC+) in High A ball. The only real improvement in his offense is a lower K rate, but his power and average are both down pretty significantly. For a prospect who was supposed to be carried by his bat, those numbers are frankly awful. On the plus side his Passed Balls are down quite a bit and his CS rate is way up at 46%. But even if his defense has improved as much as those numbers suggest, promoting a guy to AA who isn't even hitting significantly above the league average in High A just seems like a weird move. Perhaps it's a move intended to boost his trade value for the offseason? Presumably a catching prospect with AA experience is valued a bit higher than one who hasn't yet tasted the high minors. Particularly if he posts some decent offensive numbers in his month at AA, the Yankees might be able to turn a small sample into some team overpaying for his inclusion in a trade this winter. The takeaway to me is that the Yankees may have soured on his future potential and are taking this shot at pumping up his trade value.

 

[terrynever]

Quoting terrynever from the game thread the other day:
 
 
 
I was really shocked to see that they promoted him to AA. The guy is only hitting 251/.311/.417 (105 wRC+) in High A ball. The only real improvement in his offense is a lower K rate, but his power and average are both down pretty significantly. For a prospect who was supposed to be carried by his bat, those numbers are frankly awful. On the plus side his Passed Balls are down quite a bit and his CS rate is way up at 46%. But even if his defense has improved as much as those numbers suggest, promoting a guy to AA who isn't even hitting significantly above the league average in High A just seems like a weird move. Perhaps it's a move intended to boost his trade value for the offseason? Presumably a catching prospect with AA experience is valued a bit higher than one who hasn't yet tasted the high minors. Particularly if he posts some decent offensive numbers in his month at AA, the Yankees might be able to turn a small sample into some team overpaying for his inclusion in a trade this winter. The takeaway to me is that the Yankees may have soured on his future potential and are taking this shot at pumping up his trade value.

They probably have a need for a catcher in Trenton. This gives Pete O'Brien a chance to catch in Tampa. He was a catcher in college at Miami. Apparently, he's a butcher behind the plate, so they have also been playing him at third base, where he has a dozen errors so far.
 
The Yankees' scouts and coaches down there may have thought Sanchez was getting bored in Tampa. I have seen this happen to talented prospects before.

 

[jon abbey]

On a former/recent Yankee prospect tip, Andrew Brackman quit baseball and is going to play basketball in Europe. 

 

[terrynever]

On a former/recent Yankee prospect tip, Andrew Brackman quit baseball and is going to play basketball in Europe. 

First-round pick, 30th overall, in 2007.

 

[jon abbey]

First-round pick, 30th overall, in 2007.

 
I'd feel worse about this if it didn't seem like there wasn't too much talent past the top 15 picks that year:
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Major_League_Baseball_Draft
 
Edit: That's a lot of negatives but you get my point.

 

[derekson]

 
I'd feel worse about this if it didn't seem like there wasn't too much talent past the top 15 picks that year:
 
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Major_League_Baseball_Draft
 
Edit: That's a lot of negatives but you get my point.

 
Giancarlo Stanton was drafted 76th overall, they could've snagged him!  :buddy:
 
Or Jordan Zimmermann at 67th.
 
That 2007 draft had a lot of talent in later rounds, wow. A lot of late round flyers on guys who didn't sign then that later turned into awesome players too (Sale, Grandal, Cashner, Kimbrel, Storen).

 

[jon abbey]

Pineda is getting tests on his shoulder in NYC, WONDERFUL.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

This has to be one of the worst years for the Yankees in recent memory injury wise. There are greater forces at work here.

 

[LondonSox]

Seriously its like any and all bad karma is coming in at once. I think it's fair to blame the owners.

Edit (before cashman does)