NY lineup 2015

[jon abbey]

So it seems pretty clear that if NY stays relatively healthy (always a big if), their main issue this year will be scoring runs, especially against LHP. Their defense looks the strongest I can remember, the bullpen seems very deep, and the rotation is thin but with a lot of upside if they stay healthy. The lineup, on the other hand, is filled with question marks. 
 
The first thing to note is that the corpse of Jeter is finally out of the top of the lineup, so that is addition by subtraction right there, and that will finally allow Gardner and Ellsbury to hit 1/2 consistently, against RHP at least. The problem with setting the lineups is that while they can easily put out 9 left-handed hitters against a RHP, they don't have much flexibility in the other direction.
 
Regular lineup vs. RHP

LF Brett Gardner  (L)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury  (L)
RF Carlos Beltran  (S)
C Brian McCann  (L)
1B Mark Teixeira  (S)
DH Garrett Jones  (L)
3B Chase Headley  (S)
2B Stephen Drew   (L)
SS Didi Gregorius  (L)
 
Regular lineup vs. LHP

LF Brett Gardner  (L)
3B Chase Headley  (S)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury  (L)
RF Carlos Beltran  (S)
C Brian McCann   (L)
1B Mark Teixeira   (S)
DH Alex Rodriguez  (R)
2B Stephen Drew  (L)
SS Didi Gregorius  (L)
 
3-7 against RHP and 2-7 against LHP seems really up in the air, a whole lot of guys that could be good or could be awful. They can let John Ryan Murphy and Brendan Ryan fill in for McCann and Gregorius or Drew against LHP, but those guys aren't going to help much. This team might as well not show up against someone like Chris Sale, thankfully there aren't too many tough lefties around these days.
 
That's enough to start discussion anyway, curious what Girardi comes up with. 

 

[Sampo Gida]

Fortunately there are not that many good LH SP'ers in the AL East now for the Yankees to worry about.  Buehrle for Toronto has been handled pretty well by the Yankees, no Price and Smyly instead in Tampa, and Lester gone and replaced with Miley in Boston works well for them.  Orioles have Chen but he is not dominant either.
 
So far this spring, the Yankees at home when most of the regulars get their AB have the lowest RPG and are 29th in OPS.  Not a great start but unlikely to be predictive.  Some signs of life recently.  I think the offense can be above league average if they can avoid significant injuries and get some bounce back years from guys who had tough years, injuries or suspensions
 
Platooning Jones with Arod at DH makes no sense since Arod has hit RHP'ers better in recent years.  Jones is best used as a bat off the bench or to give Tex a breather at 1B.  Unfortunately he can't hit LHP'ers any better than Didi or Drew, so Young will need to PH for those 2 if there is a LHP'er
 
Its been 11 years now since the yankees and Red Sox faced off in the playoffs. Rooting for both to do so and have that rematch.   Long overdue.   Its the only think keeping me going and watching baseball in this offensive environment (and I mean that in more ways than one)

 

[derekson]

So it seems pretty clear that if NY stays relatively healthy (always a big if), their main issue this year will be scoring runs, especially against LHP. Their defense looks the strongest I can remember, the bullpen seems very deep, and the rotation is thin but with a lot of upside if they stay healthy. The lineup, on the other hand, is filled with question marks. 
 
The first thing to note is that the corpse of Jeter is finally out of the top of the lineup, so that is addition by subtraction right there, and that will finally allow Gardner and Ellsbury to hit 1/2 consistently, against RHP at least. The problem with setting the lineups is that while they can easily put out 9 left-handed hitters against a RHP, they don't have much flexibility in the other direction.
 
Regular lineup vs. RHP

LF Brett Gardner  (L)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury  (L)
RF Carlos Beltran  (S)
C Brian McCann  (L)
1B Mark Teixeira  (S)
DH Garrett Jones  (L)
3B Chase Headley  (S)
2B Stephen Drew   (L)
SS Didi Gregorius  (L)
 
Regular lineup vs. LHP

LF Brett Gardner  (L)
3B Chase Headley  (S)
CF Jacoby Ellsbury  (L)
RF Carlos Beltran  (S)
C Brian McCann   (L)
1B Mark Teixeira   (S)
DH Alex Rodriguez  (R)
2B Stephen Drew  (L)
SS Didi Gregorius  (L)
 
3-7 against RHP and 2-7 against LHP seems really up in the air, a whole lot of guys that could be good or could be awful. They can let John Ryan Murphy and Brendan Ryan fill in for McCann and Gregorius or Drew against LHP, but those guys aren't going to help much. This team might as well not show up against someone like Chris Sale, thankfully there aren't too many tough lefties around these days.
 
That's enough to start discussion anyway, curious what Girardi comes up with. 

 
From the spring lineups it looks like Girardi intends to bat Ellsbury leadoff and Gardner 2nd. I'd also say it probably makes more sense to just swap Tex and McCann against LHP than swap Beltran, Ellsbury, and Headley around. Maybe something like:
 
CF Ellsbury
LF Gardner
RF Beltran
1B Teixeira
C McCann
DH ARod
3B Headley
SS Gregorius
2B Pirela

 

[jon abbey]

Platooning Jones with Arod at DH makes no sense since Arod has hit RHP'ers better in recent years.

 
Right, but that's not the question. The question is whether A-Rod or Jones will hit better against each side of the platoon, and you could easily make an argument that A-Rod is the better bet against LHP and that Jones is the better bet against RHP, especially in Yankee Stadium. Here is Jones' home run chart for 2014 overlaid to YS:
 

 
Also if Jones and A-Rod are roughly equal bets against RHP, I'm guessing that NY would generally prefer to not give A-Rod the ABs because of his HR bonuses. 

 

[benhogan]

Looking forward to the Sox calling up Johnson, Owens and Rodriquez as our starting pitchers by the end of the season.  
 
Should be able to neutralize Ellsbury, Gardner, Texeira, McCann, Drew, Gregorius, Headley for many years to come.

 

[jon abbey]

Ellsbury back today, so NY has their full lineup in except Gregorius (mild sprained ankle, day-to-day), which gives us an idea of Girardi's plan against a LH starter:
 

1. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
2. LF Brett Gardner
3. RF Carlos Beltran
4. 1B Mark Teixeira
5. C Brian McCann
6. 3B Chase Headley
7. DH Alex Rodriguez
8. 2B Stephen Drew
9. SS Brendan Ryan

L, L, S, S, L, S, R, L, R

So if Gregorius were in for Ryan, that would be four LHH in a row at 8/9/1/2, pretty unusual.

 

[terrynever]

Didi puts his body at risk in the field especially. It might be best to give Ryan 1-2 starts every week, obviously against lefties. I hate to see Ryan's spaghetti bat in the lineup but Yanks must be careful with Didi. He had elbow problems leading into 2013 season. Sprained wrist this spring. We love watching him play shortstop, though.

 

[Trlicek's Whip]

If Brendan Ryan's calf strain is serious enough that he can't back up Didi to start the season, and if Didi's wrist isn't ready to go, who are the AAA taxi middle-infielders? [I assume that Refsnyder, who's the only other guy I saw on a depth chart, isn't an option at SS].

 

[terrynever]

If Brendan Ryan's calf strainis serious enough that he can't back up Didi to start the season, and if Didi's wrist isn't ready to go, who are the AAA taxi middle-infielders? [I assume that Refsnyder, who's the only other guy I saw on a depth chart, isn't an option at SS].

Pirela has played 364 games at short in his minor league career. Minor league journeyman Nick Noonan and Cole Figueroa are basically 2Bs who have dabbled at shortstop, a position the Yankees are woefully thin at.

Jorge Mateo is the hope for the future, currently No. 5 among Yankee prospects.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/jorge-mateo-scouting-report/

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, Pirela would almost certainly make the team once he is back from his concussion, and Drew of course can play SS (he hasn't done it all spring, but he said he wouldn't need any time to get ready to play there and he will play there tomorrow now). They have an open spot on the 40 man roster right now and no one they need to add (assuming Bailey is going to AAA to start the year), so it might be interesting to give Refsnyder a taste of the bigs even if it means starting his clock. 

 

[jon abbey]

OK, reading the post-game quotes, Refsnyder will almost certainly be on the Opening Day roster now. It will be interesting to see how much he plays, I'd think against LHP at the least and maybe even more. 
 
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/04/01/postgame-notes-260

 

[Sampo Gida]

OK, reading the post-game quotes, Refsnyder will almost certainly be on the Opening Day roster now. It will be interesting to see how much he plays, I'd think against LHP at the least and maybe even more. 
 
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/04/01/postgame-notes-260

 
I only see 4-5 LH SP'ers they could face in the first month.  I think early on Joe will want to see what Drew can deliver playing against both, and certainly would not have Drew on the bench against RHP'ers to give him a chance to get in the groove.   Might get some PH AB with the Yankees down and his defense won't be a concern.  Might get some play in blow outs, but the Yankees dont get many of them.  The only way I see Ref getting significant AB's in April is if Didi is having trouble with that wrist, and Drew moves to SS, or if Drew himself gets injured.
 
Of course, if Drew starts off 0-30 or something like that this could change

 

[jon abbey]

NY just picked up a Ryan replacement from Houston, so I think Ref is back to AAA where he can play everyday:
 
https://twitter.com/astros/status/583425190148886530

 

[terrynever]

It's the right move. Get the kid 60 more games in the field to work on his shortcomings, then bring him up, because offense is going to be the problem in 2015. Defense is much better. Pitching should be solid or better. I know you have been saying this for awhile, JA. But I'm singing the tune, too.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, offense is going to be ugly, we are going to be watching a lot of 2-0 games, I think. I like the team overall better than either of the two previous editions, though, assuming of course as always that they stay relatively healthy. 

 

[terrynever]

Yeah, offense is going to be ugly, we are going to be watching a lot of 2-0 games, I think. I like the team overall better than either of the two previous editions, though, assuming of course as always that they stay relatively healthy.

They need some dead bodies to come back to life on offense, otherwise it's another just over .500 team.

 

[EvilEmpire]

They need some dead bodies to come back to life on offense, otherwise it's another just over .500 team.

SSS caveats apply of course, but the corpses of ARod, Teixeira and Drew are showing signs of life.

It might not last. They could all get injured. But I'm feeling a bit more optimistic.

 

[terrynever]

The long summer will probably wear them all down but that's Girardi's job, to rest them when needed. It's the main reason they went out and got Garrett Jones, so Teix doesn't have to play in the field every day. A-Rod being able to play third is good in the same way for Headley.

 

[jon abbey]

I would prefer if A-Rod could stick to DH, his lack of range last night probably cost them a run in the second on the Machado ground double down the line. Maybe once Pirela bumps Petit, Pirela can be the backup 3B in addition to 2B and SS. 

 

[terrynever]

So how do Teix and Headley get a half-day off? If Teix hits 30 homers this year, or more, you might want him DH-ing occasionally to keep his right-handed bat in the lineup. Same for the other switcher, Headley.
 
The answer is for Beltran to disappear, perhaps to the DL. He is stealing ABs from Chris Young.

 

[EvilEmpire]

I don't know about 3B, but I'm, kind of bullish that ARod will be an asset at 1B. Wish they had gotten him more reps there in the preseason.

 

[Wingack]

SSS and all but this Yankee lineup is tied for second in runs scored in all of MLB right now.

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, they're doing a good job of making starters throw a lot of pitches most nights, and getting into often weak bullpens in the 6th and 7th.
 
Also they've been shockingly good against LHP, leading the AL with a collective .830 OPS (.706 against RHP, 7th in the AL).
 
Chris Young has been a godsend, he doesn't have quite enough ABs to qualify for the league leaders, but if he did, he would be second in OPS in the AL at 1.187, behind only Adam Jones.

 

[jon abbey]

NY is 4th in MLB in runs scored, and barely behind the teams in 2nd/3rd (ARI/TEX), only TOR has scored decidedly more thus far.
 
But I bumped this to note that they have oddly absolutely hammered a handful of the best pitchers in baseball. Tonight they knocked out Garrett Richards in the first inning, adding him to the below list:
 
David Price 2.1 10 8 8 3 2
Felix Hernandez 4.2 6 7 7 5 4
Jacob DeGrom  5 8 6 6 2 2 
Clay Buchholz  3.1 9 10 9 2 3
Garrett Richards  0.2 5 6 6 2 1
 
total: 16 38 37 36 14 12
 
ERA of 20.25, WHIP of 3.25, and easily the worst starts of the year for all five. 

 

[rembrat]

Lol you included Clay.