Whatever other shenanigans or relationships may be involved, kudos to Brunson for putting winning/flexibility first.
NY Knicks 2024-25: OG and the Wild-KATs
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Willis Reed's gimpy knee and Brunson's gimpy contract are two of the greatest symbolic moments in Knick history!
DWhite just did approximately the same thing. If he had gone to free agency, he could have gotten (assuming he didn't make all-NBA and all numbers approximate) a 30% of cap maximum deal, which would have started at around $46M. So he could have gotten 4/$210M-ish from other teams. (The Cs could have gone to 5 years at about $260M or something like that but there was zero chance they'd pay that.) So theoretically, he might have made $130M more than the 4/$129M he signed for. Theoretically.
Didn't see anyone writing about DWhite's "unprecedented" decision to take less money.
I don't think people are factoring injury issues as much as they should. By the end of the playoffs, Brunson was trying to play through a foot injury and also fractured his hand. He's a small guy; high usage; with a really physical game. I also don't think Brunson is the type of player who, if he was injured, would have a team pay the max even though he was sitting out the first year.
If I'm Brunson, I'm definitely taking the bag now. Plus saying that he wanted to do it to help NYK with cap space only helps his reputation.
Fair enough on White, although are those numbers assuming he would be eligible for a super max next year? I know the Brunson "discount" tweets are, which seems more likely because he already made all-NBA this season. The odds of White making all-NBA are just about nil, he has a better chance of winning DPOY which would also make him super max eligible (and that isn't happening either).
Good point on the downside. More than once we compared Brunson and this Knicks' team to IT and the 2017 Celtics, and obviously the situations are very different, but injuries happen. This still guarantees generational money for Brunson if he's not able to keep playing at an all-NBA level. And if he is, he should be able to make back most of the difference in endorsement money anyway.
No, the $46M starting point for White is the 30% max based on next year's projected cap; if White made all-NBA, he'd be eligible (I'm pretty sure) for the 35% max, which would be even higher.
The players' association should rightly be suspicious of this deal. Sure, Brunson may have just taken the bird in hand, but that narrative is a little convenient. In this market, no best player on a championship contender is taking anything close to this contract. Rose is good but this one is fishy.
Yeah contracts are just huge now lol.
I think the Brunson decision isn't soooo crazy if you squint a bit:
- small guard who would be looking at an IT4 contract situation if he had an injury-filled year
- this does help winning if he stays gud
- locks in 50 more years of being super popular in NYC, which makes post-retirement a lot more fun
He was closer to being First Team this year than being off the All-NBA list. He plays for one of the league's sexy franchises as their #1 alpha star, putting up big numbers. If he's healthy all through next season and isn't all-NBA, I'll eat
But even a 30% max contract for Brunson would've been a much, much bigger challenge to field a contender and keep it together than this will be. My question is, if the Knicks knew this was going to happen a few weeks ago, with a new lease on budgetary life, should they have been in the mix to find a Hartenstein replacement? Was that the biggest need, bigger than another wing in Bridges to pair with OG?
Centers are so, so, so much more fungible than good wings. It doesn't mean they're free, but it's a lot easier to find one in a trade or free agency than it is to get a Bridges or OG type.
Bridges is an incredible fit for NY in many ways, he doesn't miss games, he has led the entire league in minutes a few times, there are no potential chemistry issues with him and all of his college buddies. NY does need to figure out the 5 besides Robinson still, but as @lovegtm said, that is easier at least.
Brunson's deal doesn't affect this season, NY still has room for one more addition before presumably (hopefully) signing Achiuwa back.
"If he's healthy all through next season" is pretty much the entire question. If he makes it past 65 games and is healthy enough to be at his best for all of them, he'll very, very likely make All-NBA somewhere (although there are a LOT of star guards, so it's never a given for the 2nd tier guys).
But he plays for Thibs, and is an irreplaceable offensive engine for a team that still doesn't have a lot of other primary creators, so he's going to play huge, and consistently high-leverage, minutes all year, and half of his six seasons to date, he's played less than 70 games, so that 65-game threshold may matter a lot.
So I think it's fair to talk about a 35% max as a real possibility (in a way that it wasn't really for White, in the other example, which I actually think is otherwise way more similar than the media portrayed the two extensions). But the entire actual point of Brunson accepting the extension is a hedge against injury/wear-and-tear-related drop off, and in that context, you also can't just assume that he's going to be healthy enough this year to be All-NBA.
Yeah, good point. Everyone on Twitter and at ESPN and so on is framing this extension as a gift from Brunson to the Knicks, some sort of act of charity. And while there may be an element of taking less than every dime he can possibly get, it's also a lot of risk management by him, too. Locking up these numbers now, vs rolling the dice for another year, has value, and different players will value it differently. Same way we convinced Derrick White to do likewise. Perhaps a lot of us are underrating the probability distribution of injury outcomes that he faced.
edit: and as if to illustrate...
edit: and as if to illustrate...
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This Brunson extension has been wildly overpraised by the media. He locked up the absolute most he could get right now, and it's about 37M less over the 3 locked in seasons less than he could've gotten next summer. Locking up 4/165 now, rather than gamblng on your health for another season, just seems like smart business to me. There's no benevolence there. As stated by a bunch of you above, it's not much different than Derrick White. Wouldn't surprise me if he looked at what happened to his fellow Villanova Wildcat Saddiq Bey this offseason and said let me grab that money now.
Also just to point out, neither Brunson or White would've been eligible for the 35% escalator for making all-NBA(or DPOY) next season. Have to be on the team you finished your rookie contract with to be eligible for those.
Good point. This CBS article - https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/jalen-brunson-contract-extension-faq-how-much-did-knicks-star-really-leave-on-table-what-move-means-for-ny/ - lays out what you say with numbers (copied below).
The article also makes another important point that hasn't been widely reported - Brunson's deal has an opt-out before the 2028-29 season. Why is that important? Because the 2027-28 season will be Brunson's 10th, which means in 2028-29, Brunson is eligible for a veteran max contract, which is 35% of the cap. So presuming the cap rises at 10% a year until (because of the new TV deal), if Brunson is playing at an all-NBA level still, he can opt-out of his current extension and then sign a five-year, $417M extension with an initial starting salary of $72.04M.
2028-29 is Brunson's age 32 season. Seems to me that locking up $156M with a chance to sign a huge extension as soon as he is able is better than waiting a year, seeing if the $269M max extension will be available but also having to wait an additional year to see if someone will give him the veteran max (35% of cap) extension.
Similar sportrac article: https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2387/understanding-jalen-brunsons-extension-with-the-knicks
Maybe its just the way the financial industry works but nobody would say that Brunson gave up anything if this were a deal in that business. He traded dollars for certainty - something well run, well respected business globally do each and every day. Gambling on yourself sounds all well and good however Brunson would have potentially put more money at risk (i.e. the entirety of the five year deal) by not extending.
It’s more the way the sports industry works. The agent gives a reporter the scoop in exchange for making his client look like a hero.
Entirely fair and my language wasn't correct. The money he would put at risk was actually the full value of the extending money but the concept still holds. He traded upside for certainty and we know his max upside was roughly 37MM over the life of the extended contract. He wasn't willing to risk $113MM for a potential marginal $37MM which seems reasonable to me.
...which appears to be the vet-min for someone with 9 years of service time (which Payne has). Although Spotrac says it's $3.003M, if I'm reading it right. So maybe he got some LTBE bonuses in there or something.
More Thibs.
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1816164060766892092
ESPN Sources: New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau has agreed on a three-year contract extension that’ll take him through the 2027-2028 season. A two-time NBA coach of the year, Thibodeau has led the Knicks to consecutive conference semifinal berths.
Leon Rose continues a strong summer that includes adding Mikal Bridges, keeping free agent OG Anunoby and securing Jalen Brunson and Tom Thibodeau on extensions.
Under Thibodeau, the Knicks were one of four teams to rank among the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Boston, Oklahoma City and Denver were the others.
View: https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1816164060766892092
ESPN Sources: New York Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau has agreed on a three-year contract extension that’ll take him through the 2027-2028 season. A two-time NBA coach of the year, Thibodeau has led the Knicks to consecutive conference semifinal berths.
Leon Rose continues a strong summer that includes adding Mikal Bridges, keeping free agent OG Anunoby and securing Jalen Brunson and Tom Thibodeau on extensions.
Under Thibodeau, the Knicks were one of four teams to rank among the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency last season, according to ESPN Stats & Information. Boston, Oklahoma City and Denver were the others.
If so, they probably should have signed him for closer to 10 million so he would be more useful in a trade
The $5-6M contract covers a lot of guys on rookie contracts, which is nice to have without going too crazy in taxes at $10M. Sort of like Boston with Jaden Springer.
I guess so, I just doubt any team is trading any good rookie scale player for Precious and a couple 2nds. NY also has a 5.2 million trade exception from the Barrett trade (but that one does expire in December).
Better explanation here: Why the Knicks’ backup center issue doesn’t have to be solved right now - The Athletic (nytimes.com). (I heard Katz describe this on Lowe's podcast.)
From that article:
“Pair Achiuwa with whomever they sign for the midlevel exception, and the Knicks could execute a deadline deal that would trade away zero players from their top eight and bring back someone who makes up to $12 million-ish. Because they don’t have the salaries for it at the moment, the Knicks couldn’t build a trade like that today.”
Not sure why they only signed Achiuwa for $6M; maybe they think that Achiuwa plus someone signed with the MLE ($5M) plus a minimum salary guy could get back anyone they are targeting - but I'm not sure that works under the rules.
There are certainly some downsides, but I'd be perfectly happy if 29 of the 30 teams were incompetently run. Especially the ones with whom we have a natural rivalry.
We'll see. Health is the X-factor for almost every NBA team, but at full strength the Knicks are going to be a tough out, even considering what they gave up in the Bridges deal.
Maybe I'm too detached, but I like drama when watching sports (particularly when the Cs have a title in the bag). Anything else, and it's just numbers on a screen.
I legitimately enjoy watching when MSG is rocking and Knicks fans are getting excited about 2nd round triumphs.
thanks for posting
The Knicks front office has been excellent for a few years now. Bridges in + Hartenstein out is a major roster upgrade (along with a healthy OG/Randle/MRob).
I could see them landing TimeLord or Zubac, which nullifies the IH loss.
Any opinions on Chuma Okeke, who NY signed yesterday to I believe their final roster spot?
View: https://twitter.com/NY_KnicksPR/status/1819149111708602799?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
View: https://twitter.com/NY_KnicksPR/status/1819149111708602799?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
I believe Exhibit 10 is a training camp invitation, not a roster spot so it's basically a try-out. No risk involved. If he hits, it's a great move, if not, he'll probably be playing in the G-League. But AFAIK, he's primarily a wing so it's just depth piece.
I think Exhibit 10 is a contract that contains a team option to convert the contract to a two-way contract. CBAFAQ #83. So he's got a chance to earn a first-team roster spot out of training camp, but the likely outcome is a two-way, which still ain't so bad.
Exhibit 10 is a contract that gives the player a small bonus (like $50K) if he's cut at the NBA level but stays on the team's G-League team for 60 days.
I'm pretty sure that Okeke is not eligible for a two-way contract because he has 4 (maybe 5, not sure how his injured year was counted but it doesn't matter) years in the league (this site - Updated Knicks depth chart after Precious Achiuwa, Chuma Okeke signings (dailyknicks.com) - says two-way players have to have 3 or less years of experience). Still, Okeke probably sees NYK as a good spot and will go to the G-League for 60 days (minimum) to get his bonus.1
And just if anyone is curious, according to this - 2024/25 NBA Two-Way Contract Tracker | Hoops Rumors - NYK only has one current two-way contract (Ariel Hukporti, never heard of him but he's a C) with a two-way offer on the table for Jacob Tobbin. So NYK still has ability to sign one more two-way player (two if Toppin turns them down).
He’s the guy who tore his knee in NCAA tournament for Auburn 4 years ago and was a projected mid to low lottery pick prior to the injury. My notes on him…..
* Poor creator, not good ballhandling instincts.
* Versatile defender, can guard face-up and in post vs reasonably sized forwards. Seems adequate here.
* Lacks an identity. Not great post scorer, good shooting mechanics but not good shot maker. Does he work on this?
* Upside is 3-and-D rotational guy on good team. Not going to look good on dysfunction team without great individual skills.
Not home to dig them up but I’m sure it’s pretty similar.You sure those aren't your notes on Jordan Walsh?
Michael Pina at The Ringer pens an interesting article about who in the NBA is facing the most pressure this season. While some of them are obvious, the one that got my mind going a bit more belongs here: what's to become of Julius Randle? A year ago he was the face of the Knicks, and today feels almost like an afterthought given how they played with him out. And he makes $30M, which feels like unneeded ballast given the contracts Leon Rose just handed out.
If they trade him, who's buying? He turns 30 in November. Can he be worth the extension he's now eligible for, whether at MSG or anywhere? Can he rediscover his 3-point shooting form, largely lost the last 3 years (32.6%) despite plenty of volume? Does he fit the way this team wants to play now, or is he too much of a defensive liability? (DARKO says he's a +1.6 offensively and -1.1 defensively).
If they trade him, who's buying? He turns 30 in November. Can he be worth the extension he's now eligible for, whether at MSG or anywhere? Can he rediscover his 3-point shooting form, largely lost the last 3 years (32.6%) despite plenty of volume? Does he fit the way this team wants to play now, or is he too much of a defensive liability? (DARKO says he's a +1.6 offensively and -1.1 defensively).
The Knicks either need Randle to perform or swap him for a player of equivalent skill, because I'm having a hard time seeing a team with just one all-star (especially one who isn't a legit MVP candidate) as a real title contender. I wouldn't hold my breath hoping he "recovers" his 3 point shooting form (he's a career 33% shooter and just once in 10 years has he been as high as 35%, and he's a career 75% shooter from the line), this is who he is. It's not just his offense, they'll really need his rebounding with Hartenstein gone and Robinson a major injury risk.
Not really a Knicks related comment, I enjoyed that article and I don't disagree much with the choices (I'd put another player, probably Paul George, on the list instead of the Cavs GM) but it's interesting to note that it's arguable that the 5 players under the most pressure this year are all in the East. Most of the big names out west have either already won their titles or are considered too young and/or inexperienced to truly feel the pressure yet. There are a few who have an argument to be on the list (Zion, Luka, Booker, Ja, Harden), but you have to push to put them ahead of any of the EC players.
No surprise, and the Knicks' confidence in their "depth and versatility" aside, a center rotation of Achiuwa and Sims has to be the worst in the league. Am I forgetting someone? The rest of their rotation is so good (assuming Randle fits in smoothly) that maybe it won't matter for much of the regular season, but this has to be the biggest weakness for any of the contending teams. Maybe the Timelord rumors are legit.
Ah yes, the injury Embiid intentionally caused. It seems to have all worked out in his favor, now he can post up Randle instead when they play NY.
Doesn't feel like giving up all remaining draft capital for Walker Kessler is a great option. The main goal is probably to not get OG hurt by overworking him against 5s, just gotta figure that out somehow.
Doesn't feel like giving up all remaining draft capital for Walker Kessler is a great option. The main goal is probably to not get OG hurt by overworking him against 5s, just gotta figure that out somehow.
The Celtics right now are only an Al Horford hamstring tweak away from being in a worse spot at that position than Achiuwa/Sims.
Feels like there ought to be an NBA Center equivalent to "there ain't no such thing as a pitching prospect". Depth is here-today, gone-tomorrow.
Then again, we ought to only evaluate this by the question of, who will be available on April and how fit will they be? By those standards, Robinson (and Porzingis, etc) will be back long before then, so who cares if we lose an extra game or two in the regular season for want of their services.
Feels like there ought to be an NBA Center equivalent to "there ain't no such thing as a pitching prospect". Depth is here-today, gone-tomorrow.
Then again, we ought to only evaluate this by the question of, who will be available on April and how fit will they be? By those standards, Robinson (and Porzingis, etc) will be back long before then, so who cares if we lose an extra game or two in the regular season for want of their services.