Did you get the feeling on the telecast least night that Randle knows he's likely on the move? SAS kept lobbing up Knick references and he wasn't exactly running with them.
NY Knicks 2024-25: OG and the Wild-KATs
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It's not hard to see why he gets that feeling. It would be franchise malpractice if the Knicks didn't heavily explore packaging him with picks for an upgrade.
I mean their current roster is the second best team in the East. Resigning OG is the top priority then probably trying to retain Hartenstein.
Outside of KD demanding out, I don't see the move that gets them over the line.
Hartenstein is most definitely a top priority but that one is real simple. They can only offer him something like 17 million a year. I would guess the max they could offer on any type of structure he wanted is on the table.
How about a Randle for Ingram trade? Who says no?
Ingram is exactly the kind of guy who'd be good with the Knicks.
NO says no, because Ingram is better and Randle overlaps with Zion, I think? Maybe adding in picks changes things though.
Unless the Knicks can trade Randle for a superstar-to-be-identified later, they would be on my list of teams most likely to underperform expectations next year. Feels like, despite the injuries, they got really hot at the right time last year. Can Brunson have the same kind of year next year? I would think not. And if he isn’t the same force, it will be a real slog on offense.
Having said that, underestimating Brunson has been a losing bet for a few years, so maybe he continues to be an all-NBA guy and the knicks will be a top 2 team in the east.
Having said that, underestimating Brunson has been a losing bet for a few years, so maybe he continues to be an all-NBA guy and the knicks will be a top 2 team in the east.
See I would be more excited about getting someone like Alex Caruso (if the Bulls weren't run by the Chaim Bloom of Basketball) tahn trying to upgrade Randle.
When I say I don't see an upgrade for Randle, how many big forwards that play defense are better than Randle?
Giannis
Tatum
LeBron (sort of)
KD
Paul George
Ingram
Aaron Gordon [stretch here]
Siakam ????
Maybe Butler if you squint....
Gordon, Giannis, and Tatum aren't going anywhere. I can't see flipping KD this summer. Not sure how you do a Paul George or Siakam sign and trade. I don't think Miami would put Randle next to Bam.
So you are down to Ingram which may not work with Thibs and LeBron which means burning a first rounder on Bronny.
When I say I don't see an upgrade for Randle, how many big forwards that play defense are better than Randle?
Giannis
Tatum
LeBron (sort of)
KD
Paul George
Ingram
Aaron Gordon [stretch here]
Siakam ????
Maybe Butler if you squint....
Gordon, Giannis, and Tatum aren't going anywhere. I can't see flipping KD this summer. Not sure how you do a Paul George or Siakam sign and trade. I don't think Miami would put Randle next to Bam.
So you are down to Ingram which may not work with Thibs and LeBron which means burning a first rounder on Bronny.
Maybe it's just me but I think NYK will have a hard time re-integrating Randle into their ecosystem. I haven't looked up the stats but it seems like most of his shots went to Brunson and that was an upgrade. Maybe Randle just takes all of the shots when Brunson sits. Will be interesting to see.
Maybe it's still just me but I just can't see Ingram and Thibs getting along, unless Thibs can get Ingram to start caring more on defense.
Bumping now that the Knicks will have Bridges on the roster.
The most important and pressing question at the moment is Isaiah Hartenstein. Even more than OG if you ask me. I'd be offering his mother and father front office roles, his future offspring gets a locker...whatever it takes to bridge the gap between what the Knicks can pay him and what other teams will offer him.
OG is sadly going to get overpaid and I think the Knicks will be forced to match it because there aren't a lot of other players out there who the Knicks are going to spend that money on and Randle's tenure with the Knicks, whether this year or next year, is running out. I think you go all-in this year and pay OG, cross your fingers on IH, and keep Randle. They will be a 2nd apron team but presumably only for this year, when it won't matter. Disclaimer....NBA math is hard so I could be off.
The most important and pressing question at the moment is Isaiah Hartenstein. Even more than OG if you ask me. I'd be offering his mother and father front office roles, his future offspring gets a locker...whatever it takes to bridge the gap between what the Knicks can pay him and what other teams will offer him.
OG is sadly going to get overpaid and I think the Knicks will be forced to match it because there aren't a lot of other players out there who the Knicks are going to spend that money on and Randle's tenure with the Knicks, whether this year or next year, is running out. I think you go all-in this year and pay OG, cross your fingers on IH, and keep Randle. They will be a 2nd apron team but presumably only for this year, when it won't matter. Disclaimer....NBA math is hard so I could be off.
Importing the Hartenstein discussion from the Bridges Trade thread:
So, as CBAFAQ #43 notes, the Gilbert Arenas provision applies to restricted free agents who have 1 or 2 years of service time. When a player is an Early Bird or Non-Bird free agent, and the team lacks cap room to match, a competing team can only offer up to a certain exception amount (designed to be something the team itself can match). It was designed to prevent teams losing their successful second-round picks, who are often RFAs after 2 years in the league. But it does not help them in situations where, e.g., the player is a non-bird FA, and the team has only the Taxpayer MLE, and an offer comes in above that (as any offer for Hartenstein would)
Hartenstein is an Early Bird UFA, not an RFA. He has 6 years of service time, so the Gilbert Arenas provision doesn't apply. The Early Bird exception only allows teams to exceed the cap to re-sign their free agents for up to 175% of the player's previous salary (which was $9.25M for Hartenstein), or 105% of the average league salary (~$10M, so irrelevant here), for a contract of 2-4 years with 8% raises. Doing that math out leads to a $16.2M starting salary, $20.4M 4th-year salary, and roughly the 4/$72 total that has been reported (you can probably add some incentives on there to bump it up a bit, but not by much). But either way, the Early Bird exception doesn't let them match an offer at his likely market value, if it vastly exceeds that offer.
If he had played a third season for the Knicks, or arrived via trade rather than free agency, they'd have full Bird rights and could exceed the cap to match any offer he received up to the max.
"I'd appreciate someone explaining to me why the Knicks can't match a higher offer to retain their own free agent. My understanding was that the Gilbert Arenas provision was supposed to address this specific situation and prevent that from happening."
So, as CBAFAQ #43 notes, the Gilbert Arenas provision applies to restricted free agents who have 1 or 2 years of service time. When a player is an Early Bird or Non-Bird free agent, and the team lacks cap room to match, a competing team can only offer up to a certain exception amount (designed to be something the team itself can match). It was designed to prevent teams losing their successful second-round picks, who are often RFAs after 2 years in the league. But it does not help them in situations where, e.g., the player is a non-bird FA, and the team has only the Taxpayer MLE, and an offer comes in above that (as any offer for Hartenstein would)
Hartenstein is an Early Bird UFA, not an RFA. He has 6 years of service time, so the Gilbert Arenas provision doesn't apply. The Early Bird exception only allows teams to exceed the cap to re-sign their free agents for up to 175% of the player's previous salary (which was $9.25M for Hartenstein), or 105% of the average league salary (~$10M, so irrelevant here), for a contract of 2-4 years with 8% raises. Doing that math out leads to a $16.2M starting salary, $20.4M 4th-year salary, and roughly the 4/$72 total that has been reported (you can probably add some incentives on there to bump it up a bit, but not by much). But either way, the Early Bird exception doesn't let them match an offer at his likely market value, if it vastly exceeds that offer.
If he had played a third season for the Knicks, or arrived via trade rather than free agency, they'd have full Bird rights and could exceed the cap to match any offer he received up to the max.
This is worth a read if anyone wants to really read into the Knicks cap situation. https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/mikal-bridges-trade-next-for-knicks-attention-turns-to-free-agency-draft-and-possible-julius-randle-move/
Short version
With some easy moves, the Knicks are estimated right now to be $43m below the first apron and $54m under the 2nd.
If you assume $35 for OG (though I think he's gonna wind up getting closer to $40m) and a miracle that IH signs with the Knicks, that would slot them right under the 2nd Apron. If OG gets $40m, they need to probably trade Mitch in this scenario and possibly more.
Also, from the article...
However, we should note that no matter what hard cap the Knicks are locked beneath, they will have a mid-level exception of some variety at their disposal as well. If they are locked at the first apron, it's the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. If it is the second apron, they would have the taxpayer mid-level exception. Other possible center to explore in free agency would include Jonas Valanciunas, Andre Drummond, Xavier Tillman and Mo Wagner, though given the relatively thin group of available centers, demand for those players will probably be high.
Short version
With some easy moves, the Knicks are estimated right now to be $43m below the first apron and $54m under the 2nd.
If you assume $35 for OG (though I think he's gonna wind up getting closer to $40m) and a miracle that IH signs with the Knicks, that would slot them right under the 2nd Apron. If OG gets $40m, they need to probably trade Mitch in this scenario and possibly more.
Also, from the article...
However, we should note that no matter what hard cap the Knicks are locked beneath, they will have a mid-level exception of some variety at their disposal as well. If they are locked at the first apron, it's the non-taxpayer mid-level exception. If it is the second apron, they would have the taxpayer mid-level exception. Other possible center to explore in free agency would include Jonas Valanciunas, Andre Drummond, Xavier Tillman and Mo Wagner, though given the relatively thin group of available centers, demand for those players will probably be high.
Non lottery first round picks are less valuable now if you are in the second apron but second rounders are way more valuable if you are in the first or second apron. Having multiple first round non lottery picks in the same draft is a killer for apron teams.
They had this set up before they made the trade. It was why OG declined the player option before the draft.
Robinson
Randle
Anunoby
Bridges
Brunson
DiVincenzo
Hart
backup C
McBride
Still some work to do on big men if they can't get Hartenstein back, wouldn't be surprised to see them take 2 centers in their 3 picks tonight/tomorrow (24,25,38).
Randle
Anunoby
Bridges
Brunson
DiVincenzo
Hart
backup C
McBride
Still some work to do on big men if they can't get Hartenstein back, wouldn't be surprised to see them take 2 centers in their 3 picks tonight/tomorrow (24,25,38).
I wonder if they try to flip Robinson out to make room for Hartenstein before the beginning of the year. You can't keep both at this point.
I think the issue with Hartenstein is that no matter what they do, they are limited to offering him 4/72 and it sounds like that will not be enough.
They don’t have a way to resign Hartenstein unless he’s willing to sign a below market deal.
His wife is a model who wants to stay in NYC, maybe they can give her a $30M contract to be the face of MSG.
Anunoby signs for a whole lot of money. He is great when on the court (which has been not nearly as much as you'd hope the last 4 years). Wonder if some part of the NYK braintrust calculus on all this is that Bridges + Hart's durability helps them weather the storm if/when OG is out, or lets them put less mileage on him during the regular season (I know Thibs scoffs at that but if you can change, I can change, anyone can change).
Brunson-DD-Bridges-Anunoby-Robinson with heavy doses of Randle and Hart as the jack of all trades off the bench is a pretty dang good team. Hartenstein coming back and replacing Robinson in the starting 5 would be an upgrade to that aformentioned group. Robinson + OG represent pretty significant injury risks; trading Randle to make room for Hartenstein feels like tilting the rotation too far away from "having enough guys who can capably create off the dribble". We'll be interesting to see what happens with iHart, my gut says hes gone but it still seems like he could get at least ~$16M per year from NY. Maybe thats enough to get him to stay and leave a few m's on the table that he could get elsewhere.
Brunson-DD-Bridges-Anunoby-Robinson with heavy doses of Randle and Hart as the jack of all trades off the bench is a pretty dang good team. Hartenstein coming back and replacing Robinson in the starting 5 would be an upgrade to that aformentioned group. Robinson + OG represent pretty significant injury risks; trading Randle to make room for Hartenstein feels like tilting the rotation too far away from "having enough guys who can capably create off the dribble". We'll be interesting to see what happens with iHart, my gut says hes gone but it still seems like he could get at least ~$16M per year from NY. Maybe thats enough to get him to stay and leave a few m's on the table that he could get elsewhere.
$33M below the max OG could get. That's not a totally unreasonable deal, they knew he was gonna cost that when they traded for him, and at least it overlaps with the cheap year of Brunson and some reasonable priced years of Bridges
Lot of good tweets out there, one that stuck out was that there was wide belief that OG would receive multiple max offers. Basketball is crazy.
@TomRicardo - in the other locked thread you mentioned that NYK had to make the Bridges trade before July 1. Why is that?
NY's roster in 2021-22, ordered by most minutes played:
Julius Randle
RJ Barrett
Evan Fournier
Alec Burks
Mitchell Robinson
Kemba Walker
Derrick Rose
Immanuel Quickley
Nerlens Noel
Taj Gibson
Also Grimes, Toppin, Cam Reddish, Jericho Sims (a veteran at this point!!), and Deuce McBride.
Randle, Mitch, and Sims/Deuce the only ones still around out of those 15, just two years later.
Julius Randle
RJ Barrett
Evan Fournier
Alec Burks
Mitchell Robinson
Kemba Walker
Derrick Rose
Immanuel Quickley
Nerlens Noel
Taj Gibson
Also Grimes, Toppin, Cam Reddish, Jericho Sims (a veteran at this point!!), and Deuce McBride.
Randle, Mitch, and Sims/Deuce the only ones still around out of those 15, just two years later.
I think it's the reverse and it has to be finalized after? But I am terrible on cap stuff.
Well the trade hasn't been finalized yet (and I thought it couldn't be finalized before July 6) but I'm no CBA expert.
TRic's exact quote was: "In a vacuum 5 first round picks for Bridges is not a great trade. However when you look at the Knicks position, how he fits, other options before they go into the second apron, the fact they needed to make a trade before July 1st, what else was available, this looks like a better trade. "
Was just curious where the bolded came from because I have no idea and couldn't find anything in a 45 second internet search.
We won't know until Hartenstein signs here or somewhere else, but I really don't think the Knicks will start the season with Mitchell Robinson as their starter given how he hasn't shown the ability to handle the starting role and can barely score. I don't think anything happens tonight but I do think there's one more move that could come. I hope that move doesn't involve Randle but I wouldn't be totally shocked to see them go after whoever may be available.
One kind of crazy thing is that six weeks ago NY beat IND in game 5 of their second round series to go up 3-2, they won 121-91 (in between getting stomped in games 4/6/7). If you check out the box score to that game, NY will be going into next season probably (fingers crossed) losing Hartenstein and Alec Burks (who was great in that game) from there but adding all of Randle, Anunoby, Bridges and Robinson.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202405140NYK.html
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/202405140NYK.html
It would not have worked out with Bog as the player going back and it would have hard capped them for next year.
It's old news now but my understanding is that NY were always going to opt in to BB to have a salary to match to trade for an upgrade, even if that didn't happen until later in the year/season. They got it done early which works great for everyone.
Yea, there is a lot of technicality but they did the trade when they ideally wanted to, before the draft. But Bog and Bridges 2024-2025 salaries did not match.
If they're actually keeping the picks and drafting for themselves, I would not be surprised to see two legit bigs in the three picks.
Great to see OG back. I figured it was something already worked out before the Bridges deal, but I was still a little worried.
The Knicks braintrust has a plan. It may not work out, but it's coherent. They'll be fun to watch.
Please be healthier next season.
The Knicks braintrust has a plan. It may not work out, but it's coherent. They'll be fun to watch.
Please be healthier next season.
thanks. I see it now. in 23/24, the salaries difference is $1.7M; it jumps to $4.267M in 24/25.
interesting because the 2031 draft pick is included so the trade has to happen after the draft.