NY bullpen 2015

[jon abbey]

Thought it was a good time to start this thread, with a couple of articles from today. First, Olney ranked NY's bullpen as second in all of MLB currently (behind KC) in his Insider column this AM:

"2. New York Yankees 
This team will bear its share of questions, from the collective age of the roster to the rotation depth, but the New York bullpen is loaded, even with the departure of closer David Robertson. Whether Andrew Miller or Dellin Betances gets the save chances, the duo -- who ranked third and fourth among all relievers in limiting opponents’ OPS last season -- will account for anywhere from six to eight outs. 

However, the Yankees are stacked in the middle, too, from the left side with Justin Wilson (acquired from the Pirates during the winter), Chasen Shreve and Jacob Lindgren (the Yankees’ top pick last season), and from the right side with hard throwers Adam Warren (whose fastball velocity averaged 94.2 mph last season), David Carpenter (95.6 mph), and Esmil Rogers (93.7 mph). The impact of this group could be like that of the Royals, helping to fill in the gaps of innings left over from the bullpen, but with dominance."

 

[jon abbey]

And Chad Jennings goes through NY's bullpen depth, quite a few options for the last couple of spots:

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/01/13/prospects-marginal-moves-yankees-continue-adding-bullpen-depth/

 

[TheYaz67]

No disrespect to Olney and others who try this, but more than any other role/position/group it seems a bit of a fools errand to try and project or rank bullpens prior to the season starting, given the variance in performance from year to year that most relievers seem to have to deal with.  In addition, it strikes me that it would be especially hard to rate/rank a bullpen like the one the Yankees are constructing, in that it features alot of new faces, including guys that have either mostly pitched in the NL or are rookies/have little MLB experience.  A new team may also not utilize a reliever in the way that his former team did, which can also affect how well or not well he pitches the next year.  The fact that guys throw hard, well, Daniel Bard threw hard, look where he is now....
 
Not criticizing you for posting Olney's stuff and do think it is valuable to have a bullpen discussion thread, I just think bullpens must be the hardest group of players to accurately project year to year.

 

[jon abbey]

I agree with that, and also I was surprised they were so high, although I do love love love Betances and Miller (who wouldn't?). I think Warren will be a big factor here, depending on whether he ends up in the bullpen again or as a starter (where they need him more). 

 

[jon abbey]

Also it will be very interesting to see how they handle save opportunities, since Betances and Miller are probably both best utilized in potential 3-6 out situations between the 6th and the 8th. My guess as of this second would be that they try to give Justin Wilson or Carpenter the job, but really I have no idea. 

 

[jon abbey]

NY signed Jared Burton today to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, another bullpen candidate:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burtoja01.shtml
 
The new BP annual likes him, they conclude their writeup on him as follows:

"Armed with an excellent changeup that proofs him against lefty batters, don't be surprised if Burton is once again a seventh-inning asset this year."

 

[jon abbey]

So unless I'm forgetting someone, I think this is how NY's bullpen stands as of now:
 
Esmil Rogers
Chasen Shreve
David Carpenter
Justin Wilson
Dellin Betances
Andrew Miller 
 
I left out Adam Warren because I still think he might be the 6th starter and start in AAA. Other candidates are Jacob Lindgren, Jared Burton, Chase Whitley, Jose Ramirez, and probably even some other son the 40 man roster like Burawa and Pinder. 
 

 

[Pozo the Clown]

NY signed Jared Burton today....

 Any relation to: http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/burtoji01.shtml?

 

[jon abbey]

You probably could have googled that as easily as I just did, but no, doesn't seem to be. 

 

[jon abbey]

Joel Sherman manages to break away from writing a daily A-Rod column to give us one on the bullpen:
 
http://nypost.com/2015/02/28/yankees-need-another-magical-season-from-relief-corps/
 
I said it above, but if I'm Girardi, I pick someone who isn't Betances or Miller to be the closer, Warren if he is back in short relief or Justin Wilson or Carpenter or even maybe Andrew Bailey if he looks good and makes the team. Then I tell Betances and Miller that both need to be ready to come in as soon as the 6th every night, using those guys as single inning relievers most of the time seems like a waste. 

 

[jon abbey]

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/575690357872066560

 

[derekson]

https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/575690357872066560

 
Bailey should pitch 5 or 6 good innings before he hurts himself again, then he'll either go on the DL for 3 months or pitch injured for a week or two before going on the DL for 3 months.

 

[jon abbey]

The best part of that is he hasn't even pitched in an actual game yet, I guess Heyman is basing that on the simulated game he threw yesterday:
 
http://web.yesnetwork.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20150310&content_id=112069254&oid=36019

 

[jon abbey]

Bailey has yet to get into a real game, and as RAB says, it looks like he will start the year in AAA now. I think the bullpen as of now is looking like:

Esmil Rogers or Adam Warren (whoever isn't the 5th starter)
Chase Whitley
Chasen Shreve
David Carpenter
Justin Wilson
Andrew Miller 
Dellin Betances
 
That leaves Lindgren and Bailey in AAA to start the year, and it also means three lefties in the bullpen (Shreve, Wilson, Miller). 

 

[jon abbey]

Andrew Bailey scheduled for his first game action today. 

Also, from this AM's Olney column (Insider only):

"The Yankees' bullpen is absolutely stacked with hard throwers, both in the big leagues and high minors.
 
Average fastball velocity*, 2014
 
RHP Dellin Betances, 96.7 mph
LHP Andrew Miller, 93.8
RHP Carpenter, 95.5
LHP Justin Wilson, 95.0
RHP Adam Warren, 94.3
RHP Esmil Rogers, 93.5
* Source: Fangraphs
 
McCann nodded knowingly when the conversation turned to the group of power relievers the Yankees have compiled, and ticked off some names of other hard throwers who don't have as much major league experience as the group above: Chasen Shreve, a lefty who whiffed a combined 99 hitters in 76 1/3 innings in Double-A, Triple-A and the big leagues last year (he threw 12 1/3 innings for the Braves, punching out 15); Nick Rumbelow, a 23-year-old out of LSU who has seven strikeouts in 3 2/3 innings this spring; Jacob Lindgren, the lefty who was the Yankees' first pick last season and has <a data-ipb="nomediaparse" data-cke-saved-href="http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=605338#gameType=" href="http://mlb.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=605338#gameType=" r'%c2%a7iontype="career&statType=2&season=2015&level='MLB'&quot;">eight strikeouts in four innings this spring."

 

[Wingack]

Young and cheap. 
 
Now to do that with the rest of the roster.

 

[jon abbey]

Andrew Bailey has looked very good but has only gotten in four innings so far, always with two days in between at least. They don't want to rush him and won't put him on the team until he goes back-to-back days.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/03/31/bailey-needs-pitch-back-back-shot-opening-day

The Scranton schedule starts April 9, I hope the plan is to let him close games there for a few weeks with the idea of hopefully sliding him into the closing role for NY if and when he seems ready for that. I'd still give it to Carpenter or Wilson before that, freeing up both Miller and Betances for 4-6 outs earlier, although it doesn't seem like that is a possibility for Girardi. 

 

[Lowrielicious]

Andrew Bailey has looked very good but has only gotten in four innings so far, always with two days in between at least. They don't want to rush him and won't put him on the team until he goes back-to-back days.

http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/03/31/bailey-needs-pitch-back-back-shot-opening-day

The Scranton schedule starts April 9, I hope the plan is to let him close games there for a few weeks with the idea of hopefully sliding him into the closing role for NY if and when he seems ready for that. I'd still give it to Carpenter or Wilson before that, freeing up both Miller and Betances for 4-6 outs earlier, although it doesn't seem like that is a possibility for Girardi. 

 
Which way do you see it swinging then (if you don't mind me picking the brains of you guys who have your finger on the pulse)?
Popular thinking is it is between Betances and Miller, but neither have been lights out this spring with Miller being the better of the two.
 
Does cost come into it at all? Millers salary won't change, but if Betances racks up the saves this will have implications when he hits arbitration won't it?

 

[jon abbey]

Girardi and Cashman have both not really offered any info on this whenever asked all spring, and now it's complicated slightly by Betances having trouble getting on track (although Cashman says he is ahead of where he was at this time last year). Honestly with a gun to my head I think they want Bailey to be the closer and they will go case by case between Betances and Miller until he is ready or some kind of clear pecking order emerges on its own. 
 
Betances doesn't even hit arb until before 2017 and isn't a FA until 2020, so hopefully that is not actually a factor. 

 

[jon abbey]

Here's a Girardi quote on that from today, there's something they're not telling us that they're factoring in, it just seems odd to have basically ignored this all spring, even if there are no real closing chances in spring training games:
 
=================================
 
"It remains possible, Girardi said, that the Yankees will go into the regular season without naming a set closer. That would create a situation in which Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller are asked to share the ninth-inning duties, an arrangement that both pitchers say they would embrace.
 


"It's actually something we've got to talk a lot about this week coming up and what we're going to decide to do, if we're going to try to name a closer or if we're going to kind of go with a two-guy sort of situation," Girardi said. "We've ironed a lot of things out, and we've just got to work on that one.""
 
http://m.yankees.mlb.com/news/article/115628162/decisions-remain-for-yankees-manager-joe-girardi-as-spring-training-winds-down

 

[Lowrielicious]

Here's a Girardi quote on that from today, there's something they're not telling us that they're factoring in

As simple as betances poor early showing perhaps?
I know they keep saying he started slowly last year too but the stats from last spring definitely don't bear that out. (SSS clearly)

2015:
6.1 IP, 5:3 K:BB, 5 ER, 1.74 Whip
2014:
12.1IP, 11:4 K:BB, 1 ER, 0.73 Whip.

 

[jon abbey]

Betances closed a 4-3 game today with a scoreless, hitless 9th, 1 BB and 3 Ks. PitchFX has him averaging 95.3 and topping out at 96.4, so maybe this really was the rare case where we were worried for no reason. 

 

[benhogan]

Yanks pen looks tremendous, and Girardi does a good job handling it.
 
Small quibble but they should just name Betances the closer.
 
Miller seemed to get twitchy/wild in the 9th for us over the last few years.  If you use him in the 7th/8th versus  a couple of LHH he is lights out.

 

[jon abbey]

I'd feel better about the back half of the pen to open the season with Whitley and Lindgren over Rogers and Shreve, but hopefully they'll be there soon enough.

 

[jon abbey]

Terry, this one's for you, some specifics behind NY's bullpen decisions last night and presumably how they plan to run things for the foreseeable future:
 
http://nypost.com/2015/04/09/betances-faces-blue-jays-big-boppers-and-miller-gets-the-save/

 

[jon abbey]

Bullpen looking pretty solid through the first week, 1.95 ERA in 32.1 IP against two of the tougher offenses around. 

 

[terrynever]

All these five-inning starts are going to take their toll on the bullpen at some point.
 
Once the 10-day callup provision is over, maybe we will see Whitley and Lindgren, not at the same time or anything. I had forgotten that rule after the 19-inning game but Suzyn straightened me out Saturday afternoon in the pre-game.

 

[jon abbey]

Whitley must be the 6th starter now, 5 scoreless in his debut in AAA last night, so he's not coming up unless he's needed in the rotation or Nova/Capuano is back, bumping him down in the pecking order. 

 

[terrynever]

Whitley has been pretty consistent these past two years, in AAA and MLB. I wouldn't be surprised if he gets 10 starts this season with NY.

 

[jon abbey]

The bullpen had the one awful game in BAL after a very good open to the season, but they bounced back big this weekend.
 
Combined line for the pen for the TB series: 
 
10.1 5 0 0 4 15
 
Shreve is eligible to come back I believe on Tuesday, so Pinder should go back then (although they are considering using a 6th starter this week, in which case it'd probably be Whitley first and then Shreve). 

 

[jon abbey]

Impressive collective effort by five NY relievers tonight to fully shut down the Mets, Shreve/Martin/Wilson/Betances/Miller combining for 4.2 0 0 0 1 4 in a 6-4 win.
 
Wilson looks like he's found his top stuff after a few poor outings early on, but Girardi has so many options that he is using him as a LOOGY. Carpenter also has been very good almost every time out but has only gotten into one game in the last week. 
 
Shreve will likely go down to open up a spot for Whitley's spot start on Tuesday as a 6th guy, I wonder if they will try to go with a six man pen for at least a few days and try to use Carpenter/Wilson more. Whitley is a 5 inning SP, though, so maybe not. Pinder isn't eligible to come back until the 31st, Jose Ramirez walked four guys his last time out, so maybe Kyle Davies again to replace Whitley, assuming they're still not ready to open up a 40 man spot for Lindgren. 

 

[ivanvamp]

Not the starting rotation, but what a back end of the bullpen.
 
Miller:  9.1 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 17 k
Betances:  11.1 ip, 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 7 bb, 17 k
 
TOTAL:  20.2 ip, 8 h, 0 r, 0 er, 11 bb, 34 k, 0.00 era, 0.92 whip, 14.8 k/9
 
Holy smokes.

 

[jon abbey]

Two worthwhile pieces today on NY's bullpen, RAB goes through the roles that they have settled into thus far, and Lohud gives us the update on the seemingly also loaded AAA pen, Lindgren has been solid but somehow is still being outpitched by most of the rest of the Scranton pen:

http://riveraveblues.com/2015/04/bullpen-roles-becoming-clear-just-three-weeks-2015-118422/
 
"Twelve strikeouts and a ton of ground ball outs for Jacob Lindgren in his Triple-A debut. The down side is, Lindgren’s walked a few guys, so his WHIP is a good-not-great 1.38. Lindgren actually has the highest WHIP in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre bullpen. Some other relief numbers from Triple-A: Branden Pinder: 10 strikeouts, no walks and a 0.96 WHIP. Diego Moreno: 16 strikeouts, three walks and a 0.63 WHIP. Nick Rumbelow: 16 strikeouts, three walks, 1.03 WHIP. Danny Burawa: 10 strikeouts, six walks, 0.92 WHIP. Jose Ramirez: 15 strikeouts, eight walks, 1.20 WHIP. Tyler Webb: 13 strikeouts, five walks, 1.36 WHIP."
 
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/2015/04/30/minor-league-notes-7/
 
Also, Andrew Bailey has been shut down with a shoulder strain. Shocking, I know.

 

[jon abbey]

Heh, and now I see Lindgren/Pinder/Webb blew tonight's game, 5 ER in 4 IP collectively.
 
http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?t=g_box&gid=2015_04_30_swbaaa_chraaa_1&sid=milb

 

[jon abbey]

They also have a couple more guys in AA, Johnny Barbato who they got for Shawn Kelley, has five appearances, all for more than three outs, 9 Ks in 8.1 IP and a .148 BA allowed. Also Mark Montgomery is the AA closer, 6 4 2 2 1 7 so far with 3 saves but he is pretty far down in the pecking order right now.

 

[jon abbey]

NY has gone 11-3 in their last 14 games, in large part because of their insanely strong (so far) bullpen:
 
5/1: 3 1 0 0 2 3 (3 guys)
4/29: 7.1 1 1 1 4 8 (6 guys)
4/28: 4 3 1 1 2 7  (3 guys)
4/27: 3.1 1 0 0 1 4 (4 guys)
4/26: 4.2 0 0 0 1 4  (5 guys)
4/25: 4 3 1 1 0 0 4 (2 guys)
4/24: 1.1 0 0 0 0 1 (1 guy)
4/23: 2.2 0 0 0 0 4 (3 guys)
4/22: 3.1 1 0 0 1 6 (3 guys)
4/21: 2 2 1 1 2 5 (3 guys)
4/20: 8 inning complete game from CC
4/19: 3.1 2 0 0 1 6 (4 guys)
4/17: 2 1 0 0 2 2 (2 guys)
4/16: 5 2 0 0 1 7 (4 pitchers)
 
So all together that is a hard to believe:

46 17 4 4 17 57
 
0.78 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 11.1 K/9

 

[jon abbey]

Oh, didn't see that Jonah Keri wrote about the Yankee bullpen today:

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-new-york-yankees-bullpen-andrew-miller-dellin-betances-al-east/

 

[jon abbey]

Updating this:

Miller: 12.1 ip, 3h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 21 k
Betances: 14.2 ip, 6 h, 0 r, 0 er, 8 bb, 25 k
 
TOTAL: 27 ip, 9 h, 0 r, 0 er, 12 bb, 46 k, 0.00 era, 0.77 whip, 15.3 k/9
 

Not the starting rotation, but what a back end of the bullpen.
 
Miller:  9.1 ip, 3 h, 0 r, 0 er, 4 bb, 17 k
Betances:  11.1 ip, 5 h, 0 r, 0 er, 7 bb, 17 k
 
TOTAL:  20.2 ip, 8 h, 0 r, 0 er, 11 bb, 34 k, 0.00 era, 0.92 whip, 14.8 k/9
 
Holy smokes.

 

[terrynever]

Chris Martin to the DL this morning with Brandon Pinder called up to replace him. Martin was wearing ice packs on his elbow and shoulder before the game.

 

[jon abbey]

NY has really been hurt by the lack of a second reliable RH in the pen since Martin got hurt, hopefully Warren will be bumped from the rotation soon and can fill in that hole nicely.
 
In the meantime, there are endless incredible stats about Betances and Miller, but this might be the best I've seen yet. Righties are 3-50 against Miller so far this year and lefties are 1-25 against Betances. Going back to last season, LHH are 27-186 (.145) against Betances, best in the majors, and RHH are 21-174 (.121), also the best in the majors. Yes, Miller is a LHP and Betances is a RHP.
 
Numbers courtesy of Joel Sherman:
 
http://nypost.com/2015/05/14/why-don-mattingly-is-doing-his-finest-dodgers-work/

 

[benhogan]

Yanks pen looks tremendous, and Girardi does a good job handling it.
 
Small quibble but they should just name Betances the closer.
 
Miller seemed to get twitchy/wild in the 9th for us over the last few years.  If you use him in the 7th/8th versus  a couple of LHH he is lights out.

Obviously Girardi knows better then me...  Miller has been lights out as a closer.
 
Credit to the Yankees for watching the Royals storm their way to the 2014 WS on the back of a strong back end of the pen.  And adapting.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

Obviously Girardi knows better then me...  Miller has been lights out as a closer.
 
Credit to the Yankees for watching the Royals storm their way to the 2014 WS on the back of a strong back end of the pen.  And adapting.

 
While I don't disagree with the Royals part, the Yankees have had a strong pen since Girardi became manager. I think it's his biggest strength. 

 

[jon abbey]

Miller has talked a bit about how for him being a closer is easier than a setup guy, because if there's a multi-run lead, your job is just to win the game whether or not you give up runs, whereas a setup guy's job is always to hold the other team scoreless and give the next guy in line the same cushion. 

Also worth noting that Girardi has largely stopped using Miller for more than three outs, the one exception since the first week of the year was the 13 inning game against TB. Miller has responded by not even allowing hits anymore, just one total in his last 12 appearances. Also his pitch counts are down, 98 total in 7 outings in May (average of 14) as compared to 176 in 10 outings in April (average 17.6). 

 

[terrynever]

While I don't disagree with the Royals part, the Yankees have had a strong pen since Girardi became manager. I think it's his biggest strength.

Over the past 20 seasons, the bullpen has usually been the least of the Yankees' concerns. They did struggle for awhile without a good lefty reliever or two. Speaking of which, call Jacob Lindgren up already! They are wasting his bullets in AAA ball.

 

[jon abbey]

Over the past 20 seasons, the bullpen has usually been the least of the Yankees' concerns. They did struggle for awhile without a good lefty reliever or two. Speaking of which, call Jacob Lindgren up already! They are wasting his bullets in AAA ball.

 
I think the issue is that they are so lefthanded already that Lindgren replacing Pinder would give them four lefties and only three righties. They may let Lindgren replace Shreve, which is why they've been letting him go multiple innings in AAA recently.
 
What they really need is Carpenter or Wilson or both to step up as the 7th inning guy, otherwise Warren will likely get that job once Tanaka is back. 

 

[terrynever]

Agreed. I just think that Lindgren might become the No. 1 lefty non-closing option out of the pen within a month of his arrival.

Here is a decent summary of the Yankees' bullpen situation, especially after Tanaka and Nova return:

http://yanksgoyard.com/2015/05/16/yankees-editorial-options-for-bullpen-support/

 

[jon abbey]

Yeah, could be, although he doesn't throw nearly as hard as Wilson. Wilson has been hard to get a read on as he hasn't gotten regular work and he was treated like a LOOGY for a while. He does seem to have minor league options left, so it might be worth flipping him and Lindgren for a bit. 

 

[jon abbey]

Betances/Miller have given up 13 hits in a combined 45.1 innings now.
 
I believe that is 13-148, or a .087 BA allowed, in the equivalent of 20-25 percent of a full season of innings for a workhorse SP. 

 

[terrynever]

Lindgren had an effective two innings in his big league debut on Monday. Physically, he's not impressive, maybe 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds, thick in the middle. Throws around 90 with movement, especially on a slider down and in. Because of the movement, he tends to walk hitters (or strike them out at a good rate). He might be a tightrope kind of reliever that you don't particularly want to bring in with runners on base ... unless you need a strikeout. Girardi is going to bring the kid along slowly and maybe he does go back to Scranton when Tanaka returns next week. I'm not a big Capuano fan (who is?) but this is where Cashman comes in to play. Can he get a small return on Capuano with a team that needs a fifth starter? That's why Chris's start on Friday night is important. Showcase start.

 

[jon abbey]

It's not in Cashman's nature to move Capuano if he can keep him on board at this time of year, though, just in terms of depth. If Tanaka and Nova are both healthy and ready to go, maybe it's different, but the only real SP option in AAA is the untested Bryan Mitchell. I am sure he'd like to get Capuano to AAA if he could, though, but I'm not sure he can.