NY 40 man roster 2018-2019

jon abbey

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A little early for this thread although it will inform decisions made at the trading deadline, but for now I just wanted to cut and paste a good starting post from the always very well informed 'Go Win' on the RAB blog:

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As the trade deadline comes closer the Yankees have to keep an eye on roster construction for next year. In this context I analyzed a projected base case scenario considering the current 40 man roster, excluding the players that will leave to free agency (Sabathia, Walker, Robertson and Warren) and including some assumptions regarding who should be protected for the next Rule V draft.

- Starting Pitchers (13): Severino, Tanaka, Grey, 1 Starter (trade or free agency), German, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Cessa, Abreu, Acevedo. Sheffield, Adams and Tate are Rule V eligible and “must be protected” in my point of view. Unprotected: Rogers, Swanson, Green, Vargas, Rosa, SanMartin and Cortes amongst others. I would expect them to trade Swanson, Rogers and may be Green as they are starters that should be close to ready for the Majors by year end. Another option would be to trade Cessa who does not have options remaining for next year and instead protect someone like Nick Green or Swanson. The rest of the names in this list represent little Rule V risk.

- Reflief Pitchers (10): Chapman, Betances, Green, 1 reliever (trade or free agency), Kahnle, Holder, 3 of Shreve / Cole / Heller and Gallegos. Carroll has to be protected in my point of view. As a consequence the Yankees will trade one of Shreve / Cole / Heller / Gallegos and leave unprotected Feyereisen, Harvey, Espinal and Angelo Gomez amongst others. Also three lefties are pitching very well in AA and are Rule V targets (Frare, Tarpley and Reeves). If unprotected and healthy any of those guys could be taken, so its likely that at least a few of them could be traded to secure a return rather than losing them for nothing.

- Catchers (3): Sanchez, Romine, Higashioka. This assumes they leave unprotected Sands which is ok as he is still pretty raw and far away from the majors.

- Outfielders (6): Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton, Frazier and McKinney. This assumes they pick the option on Gardner and cut ties with Ellsbury. The biggest names unprotected are Amburguey, Palma and Pablo Olivares. Amburguey is very toolsy, with a lot of potential but still raw. Alexander Palma and Pablo Olivares are too far away to represent a risk. Hendrix, Zehner and Jhalen Jackson are also rule V eligible but with no risk at all in my point of view.

- Corner infielders (3): Bird, Andujar and Drury. This assumes they lose Walker to free Agency and trade Tyler Austin (just no place for him in the roster) and that they leave McBroon, Ford, Gittens, Dermis Garcia and Wagner unprotected. I’d say that McBroon has some risk but there is just no place for him in the roster. Garcia has upside but is still very raw. Wagner is killing righties but still pretty far away to justify the pick. The rest should be generally safe.

- Middle infielders (5): Torres, Gregorius, Torreyes, Wade, Estrada. This assumes they leave Avelino, Kyle Holder, Park, Castillo and Wilkerman Garcia unprotected. Because they are very good defensive middle infielders and close to the majors Avelino and Holder are risks. The Yankees might just bet that they would not stick and keep them or otherwise trade them if they can get something in return.

As you can see at the very least the Yankees might have to trade Tyler Austin, Swanson, Rogers, Green and one of Shreve / Cole / Gallegos / Heller. They would also have to let Ellsbury go. In terms of players to protect from the Rule V draft they would have to focus only on the 4 musts: Sheffield, Adams, Tate and Carroll. As a comsequence they would have to leave a pretty interesting group unprotected including multiple attractive relievers. There’s just no place in the roster for names like Avelino, Park, Holder, Feyereisen, Swanson, Rogers, Harvey, Espinal, Frare, Tarpley, Reeves, McBroom to name a few that could well be taken.

That is clearly a base case though. In the most probable scenario the team will trade multiple pieces in order to get a starter to solidify the top of the rotation. In that case their roster construction problem might just go away, at least partially. Also the Yankees might need to trade a few pieces for international bonus pool money lowering the number of prospects exposed to the Rule V draft. Needless to say that if they feel strongly that a prospect will be lost to the Rule V draft and has no place in the roster Cashman will be proactive in securing a trade (see Rumbelow, Caleb Smith, Ben Gamel, Ronald Herrera, etc) for a lower minors prospect. In any case the above background should be an interesting piece of information to keep in mind while we see the front office operate in the coming months.
 

jon abbey

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I will do my own when I have some time, or anyone else should feel free to step in too.
 

jon abbey

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I'm not going to try to update this until after July 31, but interesting to note that both Tate and Carroll were protected on this guy's mid-June list, so those spots can now go to maybe Avelino or Holder and whichever of the many lefty relievers they like the most (Tarpley?).
 

jon abbey

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Two more offseason 40 man spots freed up with the deal of Drury and McKinney, I will do a list after the deadline.
 

jon abbey

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I will go through it sometime, but it seems NY really does not have 40 man issues this year because they have traded away so many guys the last couple of seasons, as is clear by signing Gardner back today instead of just agreeing to something and then waiting until after the Rule 5.
 

jon abbey

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So this is at 39, Gray will be dealt, Cole is awful, Heller had TJS last April and could probably be dropped off the 40 man, Ellsbury who knows but the Gardner signing makes it seem unlikely he'll ever suit up for NY again. But Cashman needs to fill those spots with FA signings, I don't think there are any other prospects that need to be protected (although you can always add an arm or two if you need to fill space).

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Starting Pitchers (13): Severino, Tanaka, Gray, German, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Cessa, Abreu, Acevedo, Sheffield, Adams, Swanson, Nick Green

Reflief Pitchers (8): Chapman, Betances, Green, Kahnle, Holder, Cole, Heller, Tarpley

Catchers (3): Sanchez, Romine, Higashioka

Corner infielders (3): Bird, Andujar and Voit

Middle infielders (6): Torres, Gregorius, Torreyes, Wade, Estrada, Holder

Outfielders (6): Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton, Frazier, Ellsbury

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YankeesIsrael

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Sep 21, 2009
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Luis Cessa shouldn't be in the discussion for the 2019 40 man roster, especially in an organization loaded with starting pitchers. He was bad in 2016, 2017, and 2018, failing both as a starter (3-11, 4.93 lifetime), and a reliever (4.37 ERA). And it's not like he's improving - In his last start 5 of 6 hitters he faced got hits off him, and he also made an error before Boone finally got rid of him. Now it's time for Cashman to do the same - Try and trade him for some team that likes his stuff, and if they can't find such a team, just take him of the roster.
 

jon abbey

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Fine with me, I'm sure that will happen once NY signs some FAs but for now they don't really have guys they need to protect besides those.
 

jon abbey

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Tuesday is the deadline to finalize the roster before the rule 5 draft, the Sonny Gray deal could happen at any time and also even though Cashman doesn't need the 40 man space this year, guys like Cessa and one of the backup infielders (Estrada or Torreyes or Wade) and maybe Kahnle could be moved, Higashioka could probably be safely dropped off the 40 man also.

In exchange, besides their normal 'prospects not needed to protect yet' that Cashman tends to get in these exchanges, NY could use another AAA OF they could maybe call up to avoid this year's Shane Robinson, moving Gamel and Jake Cave and Billy McKinney in the last couple of seasons have left them quite thin there in between Clint Frazier and Estevan Florial (probably looking at a 2021 arrival now, 2020 at the earliest).
 

crow216

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Jul 15, 2005
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Reading some of the Reds forums, they sound like they'd be happy to do a Scooter for Gray trade. I'd love that trade.
 

jon abbey

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NY frees up another spot by moving Sheffield/Swanson for Paxton, and also I forgot Hanser Alberto above. NY has too many middle infielders and not enough outfielders, would be nice to see that more balanced by April.

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Starting Pitchers (12): Severino, Paxton, Tanaka, Gray, German, Loaisiga, Montgomery, Cessa, Abreu, Acevedo, Adams, Nick Green

Reflief Pitchers (8): Chapman, Betances, Green, Kahnle, Holder, Cole, Heller, Tarpley

Catchers (3): Sanchez, Romine, Higashioka

Corner infielders (3): Bird, Andujar and Voit

Middle infielders (7): Torres, Gregorius, Torreyes, Wade, Estrada, Alberto, Holder

Outfielders (6): Gardner, Hicks, Judge, Stanton, Frazier, Ellsbury

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That is 39, maybe Nestor Cortes as #40? A Gray trade could still happen before tomorrow's deadline but NY doesn't have a roster crunch this time because they've traded so many players the last couple of seasons.
 

jon abbey

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NY adds Joe Harvey, who is a 26 year old reliever who had great numbers in AAA last year, 1.66 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, .174 BAA. They are at 39 now, which I think is my above list minus Nick Green?