IIRC he was confronted by the other union players in ST with the Sox about his decision and his answer was along the lines of "my mother's car had a door fall off, I had no choice."
Noah's Arc: Song back, assigned to GVL.
- Thread starter soxhop411
- Start date
I’m not so sure the AAA thing is certain. Does anybody have a confirmation on that? It seems like milb.com put him there (to reflect team affiliation changing from Philly to Boston I assume, and since he was with AAA there) and BostonStrong_34 posted it on Twitter and then folks have been running with it. But I don’t think there’s been an official announcement?
He was also, to that point in time, a lifelong stutterer. I remember listening to a post-game radio interview he did and thinking how much fortitude he must have had to persevere
I guess it's not official & that's just how it shows up on the milb transactions page.
View: https://twitter.com/SPChrisHatfield/status/1687553443756417025
I was going to say - you could probably find quite a few who missed several developmental years between 1942 and 1945. A couple also missed time for Vietnam; I think Jim Bibby is probably the most notable.
A few thoughts as someone who has no emotional attachment to Song or how this would work out for the Red Sox, but found the whole thing interesting...
From a strategic standpoint, this was always one of the worst Rule 5 picks ever made. Song's only chance of sticking was if the Phillies could somehow put off the window mostly into next year... and I think that's what Dombrowski always hoped for. Anyone throwing a fit over the pick (or him not being on the 40-man roster, just in case) and then Song getting released from his military commitment shortly after wasn't thinking rationally. I'm pretty sure Dombrowski didn't even want Song eligible that quickly. The Phillies were probably hoping for the end of the season, so they could have him participate in instructionals, fall and/or winter ball to knock the rust off, build up the arm and really evaluate where he was at before making any roster commitment to him.
His days as a starter have to be over because he'd be on a pretty strict innings limit until he's nearly 30. That said, people are making too much of his age. Sure, the odds are definitely against a long major league career, but a lot of relief pitchers bounce around the minors until things click for them in their late twenties. It could be more of a negative for the Red Sox than it is for Song himself, meaning that a late bloomer tends to run out the clock on the team that originally drafts them, but can still have a substantial career with a second or third organization... but I'm not entirely sure how his unusual path might alter that clock either.
Relief pitching is a role that leads to a short career for the majority of them anyway. It's likely offset by the fact he has so little mileage on his arm. Given the chance to develop on his own timeline and not get thrown into the deep end of the pool, it's a pretty similar situation to position players who switched to pitching when their careers faltered... or those who played a position in college, but dabbled on the mound and were drafted as a pitcher. Using the Warren Spahn example, when he came up, a good young pitcher often put 800+ professional innings on his arm between the age of 22-24. Spahn pitched zero... and then later became one of the best 40+ year old pitchers of all time. Do we really think that was simply a coincidence? Song's real age isn't going to be the same as his "pitching age", which will probably turn off the prospect hype, but isn't a career-ender.
From a strategic standpoint, this was always one of the worst Rule 5 picks ever made. Song's only chance of sticking was if the Phillies could somehow put off the window mostly into next year... and I think that's what Dombrowski always hoped for. Anyone throwing a fit over the pick (or him not being on the 40-man roster, just in case) and then Song getting released from his military commitment shortly after wasn't thinking rationally. I'm pretty sure Dombrowski didn't even want Song eligible that quickly. The Phillies were probably hoping for the end of the season, so they could have him participate in instructionals, fall and/or winter ball to knock the rust off, build up the arm and really evaluate where he was at before making any roster commitment to him.
His days as a starter have to be over because he'd be on a pretty strict innings limit until he's nearly 30. That said, people are making too much of his age. Sure, the odds are definitely against a long major league career, but a lot of relief pitchers bounce around the minors until things click for them in their late twenties. It could be more of a negative for the Red Sox than it is for Song himself, meaning that a late bloomer tends to run out the clock on the team that originally drafts them, but can still have a substantial career with a second or third organization... but I'm not entirely sure how his unusual path might alter that clock either.
Relief pitching is a role that leads to a short career for the majority of them anyway. It's likely offset by the fact he has so little mileage on his arm. Given the chance to develop on his own timeline and not get thrown into the deep end of the pool, it's a pretty similar situation to position players who switched to pitching when their careers faltered... or those who played a position in college, but dabbled on the mound and were drafted as a pitcher. Using the Warren Spahn example, when he came up, a good young pitcher often put 800+ professional innings on his arm between the age of 22-24. Spahn pitched zero... and then later became one of the best 40+ year old pitchers of all time. Do we really think that was simply a coincidence? Song's real age isn't going to be the same as his "pitching age", which will probably turn off the prospect hype, but isn't a career-ender.
What about Thad Ward? Last I read, he was doing fairly well in a mop up roll in Washington. I think he might have been useful for us this year instead of Caleb Ort but minds might differ.
In 30.1 innings this season he has a 7.12 ERA...
Not that Kaleb Ort is much better...23 innings, 6.26 ERA. But Thad would not have been the answer.
Is this a typo? The Red Sox are going to limit his pitches for the next 2-3 years?
Normally they slowly ramp any prospect's arm up to a full MLB workload; if he hasn't been on a throwing program he's essentially starting that at year 0, so that's the length of time it would take him to build up... loosing that much time is going to hurt his overall career by a lot, too bad the new college transfer rules weren't in place then.
Maybe slight hyperbole, but he hadn't pitched in any sort of season or high level competition from age 23-25 and has 11 innings this year and 28 in his career. I don't know what they plan to do with him, but I doubt he's going to jump into a rotation in a few days and pitch significant innings for the remaining six weeks. If all would go well as a starter, maybe next year he reaches 100 innings when he turns 27. As a developing arm that's never pitched that much in his career, they'd still likely cap his innings the following year at something like a 20-25% increase, so then he's 29 before they stop worrying about monitoring his workload... and that's assuming everything goes as hoped. Developing relievers is a much shorter arc.
I can't decide if 'assinged' is a typo, or a play on 'Song'. (Title at time of this post: 'Noah's Arc: Song back, assinged to WooSox')
'
'
"I was born, grew up, spent a few years in the navy, a few months in Reading, and here I am: half a pitcher. So what?"
Noah Song pitched 2 scoreless, hitless innings for Greenville today, with 1 walk & 3 strikeouts.
View: https://twitter.com/GreenvilleDrive/status/1689439926738096128
View: https://twitter.com/GreenvilleDrive/status/1689439926738096128
Agree that his "pitching age" is much different than his real age, so I wouldn't be as worried about that. That said, these 100 innings guidelines are just guesses that some orgs probably don't even follow. And even then that's for 20 year-olds not 27 year-olds. Both Song and the Sox know they need to be relatively aggressive with him.
The good news is many very good pitchers didn't figure it out until they were 28-29 anyway, and considering his "pitching age" is so young I think he's still got a solid window. The big question is if he can get his fastball back up to sitting at 95. From there it's just TINSTAAPP like any other.
I'm glad his back in the fold. He's 26 years old (5.28.97). He was, and can be, an exciting prospect. I hope the Sox let him work through High A this year and much of next, just logging inning. Let him pitch for the next year plus and forget about him. If his velocity increases, he has had great control. He will be an old prospect with a young arm.
I'll continue to follow him, but feel like this was a lost year (Philly trying to get him ready too quickly). F Dombrowski, he screwed the Sox and this kid's re-development.
I'll continue to follow him, but feel like this was a lost year (Philly trying to get him ready too quickly). F Dombrowski, he screwed the Sox and this kid's re-development.
Does he become a 40-man roster guy at this rate? Or given all he's been through do they feel like teams aren't going to put him through another year of crap like the Phillies did? The Sox won't have a lot to go on to decide if he's worth the protection, but if his velo ticks up again then I'd guess they try to keep him.
I wasn't thinking he would be...& would have thought a team would claim him now rather than take him next year, but this Tweet kind of concerned me:
View: https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1690823346974248960
We will see what a month of being in a "normal baseball routine" will bring for him, because he certainly didn't get that throughout this season. I feel like he is the guy who really got dicked over by the Phillies here, as I can't imagine they actually thought he would be MLB ready for a team trying to contend, and I really feel like he needed to come back to a normal professional baseball life, which was all but impossible for him as a Rule 5 pick.
Well he's only had two outings so it isn't such a rough search, but I can't find anything. I thought I saw 93 somewhere, maybe in his Phillies rehab outings? TheAthletic's minor league notes even mentions his return with no velo #.
I didn’t watch today but they usually do a good job of mentioning the pitch speeds during game. It’ll be on MiLB.tv
Baseball savant has his pitches in the game logs for the time he was with the Phillies. His fastball in his last appearance with Lehigh Valley was 90.5-92.9 and averaged 91.8. I haven't seen anything about his stuff since he got to Greenville.
It's interesting that the average went from 90.8 to 91.8 from early July to late July.
Masslive reported that he was at 92-94mph in his start last week so he's definitely gaining strength. (https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/08/how-red-sox-prospect-noah-song-did-in-first-outing-back-with-organization.html)
It will be interesting if he's up to 93-95mph before the end of the season. If so, would it be reasonable to expect him to get up to 95-97mph with a proper offseason strengthening program? He would probably merit protection if so.
Guys can't turn down the rule V draft, right? Because I can't imagine this process has helped Noah Song's career and it certainly hasn't helped Thaddeus Ward. The way it's set up, a team like the Nationals has no incentive to care about what's best for him. The kid has good stuff, let's thrown him into the fire and hope the 7% chance that he's ready pays off and if he's not, it doesn't harm us at all.
And maybe he wouldn't have turned it down -- if he stays with Boston, maybe he never sees MLB at all. But it seems like it would be a nice option to have.
And maybe he wouldn't have turned it down -- if he stays with Boston, maybe he never sees MLB at all. But it seems like it would be a nice option to have.
Not good for his actual baseball development but the financial implications are a factor too, MLB health insurance and service time and “The Phillies paid Song more than $450,000 while he accrued service time on the injured list.”
Definitely can't turn it down. It's part of the package they agree to when they sign on to play baseball professionally. These guys can be traded at any time, released at any time, promoted/demoted at any time, with nearly no control over where they go. So they're used to being bounced around, or at least should become used to it.
I imagine if you asked any minor leaguer, they'd be happy to be picked in the rule 5. They're probably less concerned with their development than just getting to the big leagues by any means possible. Plus it's an instant increase in salary, which depending on the player, could be life-changing even if it's just for a few weeks or months. Minimum base salary for being on the 26-man roster is more money in a week than a player generally earns in a year at most minor league levels (MLB minimum is ~$700K, or ~$25K a week). Who's going to turn that down?
I think that's probably true, most guys wouldn't turn it down. But one can look at Ward and imagine a scenario where he ultimately makes more money, a lot more money, by being a little more patient. Even if all he has is Ryan Brasier's career, that's much better that one year at the rookie minimum with a team that is heavily incentivized to shun long term development. And while that's still not impossible at this point, it's less likely than it would have been had he pitched in Portland/Worcester this year.
It's not the same thing but didn't old friend Wily Mo Pena have a contract that basically forced him into the majors before he was ready? He did make almost $7 million in his career so good for him, but he also had a total of 880 PA in his 3 years with the Reds from age 21 to 23, so it's easy to wonder if there could have been more. Cedanne Rafaella is 22, imagine if he had to be in the majors?
Last edited:
I think that in the ordinary course, being taken in the Rule 5 draft can help a career more than hurt it.
Song is a bit of an outlier, given the interruption in his career. For a "normal" Rule 5 pick, eligibility to even be picked means he's had 6(?) years and isn't on the 40-man, so essentially no shot (or a very long shot) at MLB with his current org. From that purgatory, he goes straight to the majors for a time, makes some money, gets some exposure to major league players and coaches, from whom he can possibly learn something.
The difference between Noah Song and most (all others ever drafted?) Rule 5 draftees is that he has a Navy degree and all the Navy connections. I've seen some people equate the academies to Ivy League schools. He received an engineering degree and trained as a pilot - that's worth hundreds of thousand of dollars annually. Then throw in the Navy connections. In comparison to a baseball career, he has life / earning options. That's not true of most drafted minor leaguers. While 450k is amazing for 1/2 a year of baseball, this is a guy who will likely earn a shit ton of money in his post baseball life. It's set up for him. Former Admirals will give him jobs with a defense contractors.
If he can make a major league roster in a couple of years, then that income tradeoff (minor leagues earning nothing compared to a career job earning substantial) is offset. But if the road doesn't open up to the majors, he's gonna make a lot more than toiling in the minors.
If he can make a major league roster in a couple of years, then that income tradeoff (minor leagues earning nothing compared to a career job earning substantial) is offset. But if the road doesn't open up to the majors, he's gonna make a lot more than toiling in the minors.
The Athletic has an article on Song and the Red Sox plans for him.
https://theathletic.com/4793656/2023/08/22/noah-song-red-sox-phillies-plan/
He'll be pitching as a starter:
https://theathletic.com/4793656/2023/08/22/noah-song-red-sox-phillies-plan/
He'll be pitching as a starter:
He had good results in his first 2 short appearances but then struggled in his third start, which is to be expected. His fastball has mostly been in the low- to mid-90s, but touched 97:
They're not sure yet if Song will pitch in the fall league: