No Offense, But.... (The 2024 Summer Transfer Window Thread)

sdiaz1

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In that video Nico speaks Castellano. Marca will be reporting that Nico Williams to Real is imminent
 

rguilmar

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Barcelona are closing in on Dani Olmo. I can’t say it makes much sense to me other than the fact that he’s Catalan. I suppose he can play LW, but that CM position is looking pretty packed. I assume Pablo Torre will be off on loan again, but they still have Fermin Lopez, Gundo, Pedri, Gavi, and FDJ in those 8/10 roles. Some of that delayed palanca money just came in a year late, which will help fund the transfer. It looks more and more like they will give the kids (Casado and Bernal, both who have been impressive this summer) the keys to that DM role.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1820799445849551099?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ



In that video Nico speaks Castellano. Marca will be reporting that Nico Williams to Real is imminent
I know you’re not being serious, but I’ve rarely heard an Athletic player speaking Basque. The speeches at the parade were in Castellano, their YouTube videos are translated to Castellano, pretty much everything short of the songs and maybe a Muniain clip are in Castellano.

In the end, if/when Nico leaves, I’m almost positive that it will not be to a La Liga club. He has no interest in playing against Athletic Club.

edited to add that the Olmo transfer is Here We Go

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1820802308428435593?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ
 

Dummy Hoy

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How can Barca afford Olmo?

And I hope Cholo can use Alvarez properly…really be bummed to see a repeat of the Joao Felix nonsense
 

Zososoxfan

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If this deal happens, Atlético did some really good business.

I’m not sure where Atlético is finding the money, but it’s great to see the team spending and really working to improve the team. There’s been an impressive effort to invest in talent this offseason — LeNormand, Sorloth, Gallagher, and maybe Julian Alvaraz.
That's a title challenging squad IMO:

Griezmann-Sorloth-Julian
RDP-Koke-Llorente-Lemar
Le Normand-Gimenez-Azpi
Oblak

While that MF is definitely not how they will line up, those are all players who should see lots of PT. And they still have Molina, Witsel, Vermeeren, Felix, and a host of promising young players to play with as well.

How can Barca afford Olmo?

And I hope Cholo can use Alvarez properly…really be bummed to see a repeat of the Joao Felix nonsense
Catalan/Spanish accounting that results in people getting arrested regularly [shrugs]?
 

rguilmar

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How can Barca afford Olmo?

And I hope Cholo can use Alvarez properly…really be bummed to see a repeat of the Joao Felix nonsense
Barca just had some of the Libero money come in today. It was part of the infamous palancas that were pulled when Laporta first regained power, something like €40 million. Barca had a bunch of smaller sales earlier in the window, the biggest being Riad for €9-10 million (technically to Betis who sold him on to the Prem for around €15 million). They also will get back into the Nou Camp this season, so revenues will go up for a bunch of home games. Idk how much that is playing into the calculus but La Liga has forced clubs to be pretty conservative in estimating completion dates and impact on ticket sales. All in all, they are probably running a decent profit (by their current standards) by year end, depending on Champions League results, completion of the stadium, and league position. If the club could only restrain their spending and let the kids develop, they might be on to something. But they can’t.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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I think the most interesting question to ask is whether Barca really can afford to sign and register Dani Olmo but also couldn't have afforded Nico Williams.

From a PSR/player cost perspective, Nico would have been slightly more expensive in terms of the amortized transfer fee and also somewhat more expensive in terms of annual wages. But the differences here aren't huge. Selling one minor player makes up that difference easily.

To me it all suggests one of two different possibilities: (a) Nico just rejected them and a lot of stories about being unable to register him were just to cover up that embarrassing fact or (b) Barca has a cash flow problem and didn't have the cash on hand to do a deal for Nico that probably had to be paid up front or substantially up front.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I think the most interesting question to ask is whether Barca really can afford to sign and register Dani Olmo but also couldn't have afforded Nico Williams.

From a PSR/player cost perspective, Nico would have been slightly more expensive in terms of the amortized transfer fee and also somewhat more expensive in terms of annual wages. But the differences here aren't huge. Selling one minor player makes up that difference easily.

To me it all suggests one of two different possibilities: (a) Nico just rejected them and a lot of stories about being unable to register him were just to cover up that embarrassing fact or (b) Barca has a cash flow problem and didn't have the cash on hand to do a deal for Nico that probably had to be paid up front or substantially up front.
Maybe a combination of the two - if I’m Barca I’d far rather have Nico than Olmo as they have lots of mids. Weren’t there lots of rumours about Williams’ exorbitant wage demands?

guessing they simply couldn’t afford him (or the fee)
 

rguilmar

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I think the most interesting question to ask is whether Barca really can afford to sign and register Dani Olmo but also couldn't have afforded Nico Williams.

From a PSR/player cost perspective, Nico would have been slightly more expensive in terms of the amortized transfer fee and also somewhat more expensive in terms of annual wages. But the differences here aren't huge. Selling one minor player makes up that difference easily.

To me it all suggests one of two different possibilities: (a) Nico just rejected them and a lot of stories about being unable to register him were just to cover up that embarrassing fact or (b) Barca has a cash flow problem and didn't have the cash on hand to do a deal for Nico that probably had to be paid up front or substantially up front.
I’m going with (a) on this one. I think Nico wanted to play for Athletic Club in Europe. Beyond that, Athletic have sent a proposed new contract to Williams, so Barca would have to top that. I would also be very surprised if he left Bilbao but stayed in Spain. I’m not saying that top players don’t leave Bilbao, because they do, but they almost never leave for a bigger club in Spain. Of their biggest sales in the last 30+ years, Athletic Club players have been sold to the Premier League (Kepa, Laporte, del Horno, Herrera) and Bayern (Javi Martínez). There is too much in the way of politics and national identity to go into but given a choice in the matter, they just don’t want to go to San Mamés as a visiting player.
 

bosox4283

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How can Barca afford Olmo?

And I hope Cholo can use Alvarez properly…really be bummed to see a repeat of the Joao Felix nonsense
I agree with the desire/wish that Cholo can properly use Alvarez. It can take some time to adjust to Simeone's style and tactics. Players like De Paul and Molina needed perhaps a full season to find their groove. I think Joao Felix had a problem with Simeone's approach, and the two butted heads and never found a way past their disagreement. So, we need both Simeone to find the right attacking/defense balance and be able to manage Alvarez's feelings/attitude. Perhaps the Argentine/South American connection - Griezmann is an honorary member of that squad, plus Correa, Molina, De Paul, and Gimenez - will enough for Alvarez to feel settled, to understand what it takes to succeed, and find his place on the team.
 

bosox4283

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That's a title challenging squad IMO:

Griezmann-Sorloth-Julian
RDP-Koke-Llorente-Lemar
Le Normand-Gimenez-Azpi
Oblak

While that MF is definitely not how they will line up, those are all players who should see lots of PT. And they still have Molina, Witsel, Vermeeren, Felix, and a host of promising young players to play with as well.



Catalan/Spanish accounting that results in people getting arrested regularly [shrugs]?
I'm also excited about Atletico's outlook with these additions. It's important to note, too, that players like Julian and Conor Gallagher (assuming that he ends up at Atletico) could be replacements for players like Griezmann (33, 34 in March) and Koke (32, 33 in January).
 

Zososoxfan

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Jeez, I forgot about Gallagher in that XI. Really good side.

I just placed a bet for Atleti to win La Liga at +1000. Only Real had (MUCH) better odds.

An even better bet is Atleti top 4 finish at -225. Alas, I live in FL and stupid Hard Rock app doesn't have that bet available SMH.
 

sdiaz1

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Sorry to derail here but are you are saying that if you bet $100 on Atletico you would win $1,000 and somehow Barca has even longer odds? I abhor gambling and like Real Madrid but damn, the math there is just stupid. Maybe I bring myself to make a wager with 0 sentiment.
 

67YAZ

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Liverpool are the latest EPL club to take a run at Zubimendi. Slot spoke yesterday about his desire to find another midfielder and his experiments with Endō, Szobo, & Gravenberch at the 6 on tour. Endō has been attracting interest, so he could move out if a 6 comes in.
 

rguilmar

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Just a little more context to Zubimendi, he signed a new contract not long ago with a €60 million release clause.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1821151239515595209?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


Losing Zubimendi would be an absolute nut shot for La Real who went into the summer with 5 players on the Spain Euro winning squad and might end it with 2 (Le Normand is already at Atleti and Merino is definitely off somewhere, possibly Arsenal). The player hasn’t shown any interest in leaving San Sebastián and even Barcelona have found out how hard it is to convince these Basque guys to leave their boyhood clubs, but when Premier League money comes calling, all bets are off.

The entertainment value of seeing Barcelona fans collective heads explode if this deal happens would be amazing.
 

67YAZ

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Just a little more context to Zubimendi, he signed a new contract not long ago with a €60 million release clause.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1821151239515595209?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ


Losing Zubimendi would be an absolute nut shot for La Real who went into the summer with 5 players on the Spain Euro winning squad and might end it with 2 (Le Normand is already at Atleti and Merino is definitely off somewhere, possibly Arsenal). The player hasn’t shown any interest in leaving San Sebastián and even Barcelona have found out how hard it is to convince these Basque guys to leave their boyhood clubs, but when Premier League money comes calling, all bets are off.

The entertainment value of seeing Barcelona fans collective heads explode if this deal happens would be amazing.
I don’t think the €60m is an issue for Liverpool; they have a few guys who should be moving out this month. But it sounds like La Real are asking for it in one lump sum, which could require some cash flow gymnastics.

No doubt Zubimendi has a salary number that would turn his head, though I don’t quite expect Liverpool to meet that when Arsenal wouldn’t. The compounding factor is that the Reds are still negotiating with Salah, Trent, and VVD. The wage bill is already going to take a massive jump and brining in a new guy at near-top wages will empower the veterans’ agents to ask for even more. It’s a delicate dance.
 

Zososoxfan

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Sorry to derail here but are you are saying that if you bet $100 on Atletico you would win $1,000 and somehow Barca has even longer odds? I abhor gambling and like Real Madrid but damn, the math there is just stupid. Maybe I bring myself to make a wager with 0 sentiment.
I don't recall where the odds were yesterday, but just re-checked and Real is at -240, Barca at +350, Atleti holding at +1000.

You understood correctly that +1000 means bet $100 and win $1K. I did not bet that much lol.

I honestly don't see why Barca have substantially better odds than Atleti. How many players firmly make Atleti's squad right now, and vice versa? Let's assume the Gallagher deal goes thru:

Griezmann-Sorloth-Julian
RDP-Lemar-Gallagher
Vermeeren/Koke
Le Normand-Gimenez-Azpi
Oblak

Molina, Llorente, Felix, Lino

Barca's presumed XI right now (Flick's 4231):

Lewa
Ferran/Raph-Pedri/Gundo-Yamal
FDJ/Christensen-Gavi
Balde/Fort-Cubarsi-Araujo-Kounde
MATS

This comparison is a bit messy because of the different team shapes, but I think a few things are clear. Julian is the best player by a wide margin. Le Normand is the best defender (more experience than Cubarsi, and better form than Araujo). Kounde and Yamal are the only Barca guys that definitely make it into Atleti's side. Gavi and Pedri are close, but injuries and form count for something in my silly exercise. MATS and Oblak are about even, slight edge to MATS but not so much so that I think it's a slam dunk. Neither team has an established LB or DMF. I think Molina gets the nod over Kounde at RB, with the caveat that Kounde should make a move to get back to CB where his on ball skill and limits in the final third are best utilized and less relevant, respectively.

Zoso's combined best XI:

Julian-Lewa-Yamal
RDP-Christensen/Vermeeren-Gallagher
Balde-Le Normand-Kounde-Molina
MATS

So while that's actually pretty close, I think Atleti's pieces fit together better. I think the MF players exhibit this pretty well. Both teams have a glut of CMFs, but Atleti's are all cagey B2B types which fit Simeone's system, and Barca's hyper technical mids are great, but they really need a pivot to function properly and Barca still don't have one. This might be mitigated by Flick's double pivot setup (Christensen, FDJ, Gavi, Cascado?) is actually a pretty solid rotation for those spots, but that's a big question mark going into the season.
 

67YAZ

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David Orenstein relays that that Real Sociedad expect Zubendi to say yes to Liverpool. If he does, he’ll follow in Xabi Alonso’s steps…which makes sense since Xabi couldn’t be tempted back to Anfield this year, so the Reds snapped up the newest model.

I also read that Liverpool’s new director, Hughes, has a good working relationship with Zubimendi’s agent because it’s the same agent Hughes worked with to get Iriola to Bournemouth.

One point of negotiation is the fee - La Real will take all €60m in a lump sum or a higher amount in installments.
 
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rguilmar

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David Orenstein relays that that Real Sociedad expect Zubendi to say yes to Liverpool. If he does, he’ll follow in Xabi Alonso’s steps…which makes sense since Xabi couldn’t be tempted back to Anfield this year, so the Reds snapped up the newest model.

I also read that Liverpool’s new director, Hughes, has a good working relationship with Zubimendi’s agent because it’s the same agent Hughes worked with to get Iriola to Bournemouth.

One point of negotiation is the fee - La Real will take all €60m in a lump sum or a higher amount in installments.
All three men- Andoni Iraola, Martin Zubimendi, and Xabi Alonso- come from the same tiny province in the Basque region. Of course, Iraola was a RB while the other 2 played similar midfield positions.

I’m bummed to see Zubimendi go. He’s been badly underrated by the soccer world outside of Spain for a while, so I had hoped he would stay in La Liga longer. The power of a great 45 minutes in a final I suppose. Liverpool is getting a really fantastic player.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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I don’t think the €60m is an issue for Liverpool; they have a few guys who should be moving out this month. But it sounds like La Real are asking for it in one lump sum, which could require some cash flow gymnastics.

No doubt Zubimendi has a salary number that would turn his head, though I don’t quite expect Liverpool to meet that when Arsenal wouldn’t. The compounding factor is that the Reds are still negotiating with Salah, Trent, and VVD. The wage bill is already going to take a massive jump and brining in a new guy at near-top wages will empower the veterans’ agents to ask for even more. It’s a delicate dance.
On the other hand Thiago moving on frees up a huge chunk as he was top three in the team wage bill. Not to mention Henderson last year.
 

swiftaw

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I don’t think VVD signs a new contract, he’s kind of given hints in that direction. I think Salah is 50/50. I think Trent is most likely to sign a new deal given he’s a local lad.
 

67YAZ

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I don’t think VVD signs a new contract, he’s kind of given hints in that direction. I think Salah is 50/50. I think Trent is most likely to sign a new deal given he’s a local lad.
There’s renewed rumors of Liverpool in the market for another CB, which could well be the VVD transition plan.

I also think there’s something to the Madrid whispers around Trent - hanging out with Jude. Liverpool trying to unsettle Guler. TAA’s already done so much in a Red jersey, he could leave for Madrid on a free, reap a huge windfall, and still be a hometown hero.
 

swiftaw

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I’m not sure the last sentence is true, pretty sure there are many scousers who would accuse him of abandoning them and chasing the money.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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This is already out of date, missing Omorodion and another GK they just signed from Genk.

I really think these guys just took a baseball template and applied it to football - acquire as much young talent as possible to stock your minor league multiclub/loan system, then assume it will all eventually translate to first team success.

 

67YAZ

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This is already out of date, missing Omorodion and another GK they just signed from Genk.

I really think these guys just took a baseball template and applied it to football - acquire as much young talent as possible to stock your minor league multiclub/loan system, then assume it will all eventually translate to first team success.

So Chelsea sent Slonina to Belgium for the season & their scouts must have got a look at Penders there. Penders is a year younger and just cost about double. It’s tough going at the mega clubs.
 

rguilmar

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Bryan Zaragoza to Osasuna on loan. He’s an extremely quick winger who tormented Barcelona last season before being sold by Granada to Bayern in January (I believe the sale was actually this summer but they agreed to a loan in January as Bayern had an injury crisis or something like that). Osasuna have lost their on field leader in captain David Garcia and off field leader in legendary manager Jagoba Arrásate. It’s a great club that is 100% member owned. Hopefully this helps keep them afloat in La Liga this season as they were looking likely to be in the relegation battle.

View: https://twitter.com/osasuna/status/1821818935508967655?s=46&t=XvGOrrWIyL-5CHVVL_0JYQ
 

67YAZ

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Contra the thread title, Fab says Bayern are putting Kingsley Coman up for transfer. He only got into 17 matches last season, his lowest number in a decade. And he’s 28, so a 5-year deal takes him into the typical decline years for a pacy winger. But when fit, he’s an impossible to contain. Could be a big risk/reward play dor a club willing to gamble. Chelsea could use another winger, yeah?

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1821850218175877360?s=46&t=GfuLFvTYcOxcFiCZjyIYZw
 

67YAZ

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This is already out of date, missing Omorodion and another GK they just signed from Genk.

I really think these guys just took a baseball template and applied it to football - acquire as much young talent as possible to stock your minor league multiclub/loan system, then assume it will all eventually translate to first team success.

And now reports of Pedro Neto to Chelsea for £51m.
 

67YAZ

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So Chelsea sent Slonina to Belgium for the season & their scouts must have got a look at Penders there. Penders is a year younger and just cost about double. It’s tough going at the mega clubs.
And now Gaga is off to Barnsley for the season. The finished 6th in League One last year and actually kicked off this season today. I just hope the Chelsea scouts don’t another teenage keeper they like while tracking Slonina again.

View: https://twitter.com/fabrizioromano/status/1821984349173977219?s=46&t=GfuLFvTYcOxcFiCZjyIYZw
 

rguilmar

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In the “Becker Derby”, Real Sociedad brought Zubimendi in against Union Berlin. That seems to indicate that the player has decided to stay

he says hopefully
 

67YAZ

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In the “Becker Derby”, Real Sociedad brought Zubimendi in against Union Berlin. That seems to indicate that the player has decided to stay

he says hopefully
The latest word from Liverpool sources is that La Real are putting on a “charm offensive” (Paul Joyce’s words) & may be dangling a new contract. LFC have cleared the cash to make a lump sum release clause payment and are in negotiations with the agent. It will be frustrating if Liverpool got played so Zubimendi could get a raise, but that’s the game.
 

rguilmar

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The latest word from Liverpool sources is that La Real are putting on a “charm offensive” (Paul Joyce’s words) & may be dangling a new contract. LFC have cleared the cash to make a lump sum release clause payment and are in negotiations with the agent. It will be frustrating if Liverpool got played so Zubimendi could get a raise, but that’s the game.
“Got played” might be a strong way of putting it. Zubimendi could have had those intentions. But he did just signed this current contract a year ago when other clubs were after him (Arsenal and Barca I think). More likely than not, it was something else or a combination of things.

Perhaps Liverpool were not dotting their Is or crossing their Ts with the player or his representatives. The player could have had a change of heart as he’s from San Sebastián itself, not Pamplona like Merino. The player’s family might be expressing a desire for him to stay. Or a significant other. Or he did a quick search on the lifestyle in Liverpool and decided that wasn’t for him- San Sebastián, while rainy, is an ideal place to live for many people and I don’t think the same can be said for Liverpool. He might’ve looked at La Real’s situation losing two top players and not wanted to gut his boyhood team. Maybe he’s a big time foodie. Or, most likely, the rumor mill got it wrong in terms of how likely this really was to happen.

This all assuming of course that Zubimendi does not go to Liverpool, which is by no means a certainty.
 

67YAZ

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“Got played” might be a strong way of putting it. Zubimendi could have had those intentions. But he did just signed this current contract a year ago when other clubs were after him (Arsenal and Barca I think). More likely than not, it was something else or a combination of things.

Perhaps Liverpool were not dotting their Is or crossing their Ts with the player or his representatives. The player could have had a change of heart as he’s from San Sebastián itself, not Pamplona like Merino. The player’s family might be expressing a desire for him to stay. Or a significant other. Or he did a quick search on the lifestyle in Liverpool and decided that wasn’t for him- San Sebastián, while rainy, is an ideal place to live for many people and I don’t think the same can be said for Liverpool. He might’ve looked at La Real’s situation losing two top players and not wanted to gut his boyhood team. Maybe he’s a big time foodie. Or, most likely, the rumor mill got it wrong in terms of how likely this really was to happen.

This all assuming of course that Zubimendi does not go to Liverpool, which is by no means a certainty.
This is eloquent & romantic. You can be Zubimendi’s publicist, I’ll be his agent.
 

bosox4283

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Chelsea out of Omorodion but going after Felix....
What the hell is going on? What sort of black magic is Jorge Mendes using to get Chelsea to take another chance on Joao Felix after he was only OK there and then at Barca?

I know that Atleti needs to sell to balance the books, so perhaps Atlético can sell both Felix and Omorodion.
 

bosox4283

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There’s a report that the Chelsea contract with Omorodion fell apart over the player’s rights. Is that a normal point of contention?

Another rumor is that Chelsea may move Sterling, perhaps to Juventus, to free up space for Joao Felix.
 

rguilmar

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There’s a report that the Chelsea contract with Omorodion fell apart over the player’s rights. Is that a normal point of contention?

Another rumor is that Chelsea may move Sterling, perhaps to Juventus, to free up space for Joao Felix.
I’m just returning to the world now but this would be most hilariously amazing result for Atleti. They get to keep Samu, unload the immovable contract of Joao Felix, and add both Gallagher and Alvarez?

In totally unrelated news, Barcelona is having trouble registering Dani Olmo. I don’t have the time or energy to go into all of the mechanics involved, but they’ll need to shed salary. It happens all the time in Spain, especially with my Betis, and it is just news because it involves Barcelona. It’s fair to say Nico Williams will not be walking through that door anytime soon. For the time being, he’s Athletic Club’s new #10. Kingsley Coman is out there available on a loan with buy clause, so if Barcelona really move some salary they can give Bayern a ring. Closer to my heart, it looks like there is smoke around Ayoze Perez, who really came on last season at Betis, with bids from Villarreal among others. It would mean that the verdiblancos can hold onto Johnny most likely, which is great for the club and the USMNT imo.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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rguilmar

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Ahh the old loyalty card - Liverpool got played by his agent.

Player 1
Basque teams 1
Soccer super powers 0

Edit: not that I’m complaining about him staying - that’s kind of refreshing - but one doubts if he’d show the same loyalty on his current terms.
I wouldn’t say loyalty. He’s happy where he is, and while I’m sure loyalty to the hometown club played a role in both cases as did improved contracts, they both have expressed happiness playing at home in the past. Like any other employee who is happy but gets an enormous contract offer elsewhere. They go to their bosses, say that they’re happy where they are but got this crazy offer to work elsewhere and the amount of money makes it a toss up , so is there anything you can do to help me out?

Both Nico Williams and Zubimendi will reportedly get new contracts, and at least in Zubimendi’s case it will be significantly lower than what he would have earned elsewhere. So while both player and agent “win” with them staying at home, they would have “won more” if they had left. If it were as easy as offering up new contracts to keep a player, we’d say a lot fewer transfers. When it came down to it, both players were happy to stay at home.

In the end, both clubs kept their players on lesser terms than the suitors were offering. In today’s environment, I’ll count those as wins for the Basques. I generally like the idea that something besides money matters.