Niners Trade for #3 Pick

Mugsy's Jock

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If I'm the Dolphins, why announce this trade now?

Hanging onto 1-3 could continue to leave the Pats to believe there would be a shot to get their man at 1-4, or even 1-7... letting them their rival know now that the top 3 picks will 100% be quarterbacks gives them more time to come up with another plan.

Also can't think of a reason the 49ers need to announce this now, unless there's a date by which they need to dump Jimmy to save dead money or cap space?
 

Cellar-Door

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There is no way they're paying Jimmy G $25M each of the next two years after trading up to draft a franchise QB at #3. Not when they can walk away from him for nothing right now.
I don't expect they will. But also... nobody else in the league is paying Jimmy G 2/50M either. He's getting a renegotiated contract one way or the other.
 

Mooch

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There is no way they're paying Jimmy G $25M each of the next two years after trading up to draft a franchise QB at #3. Not when they can walk away from him for nothing right now.
Agreed. Especially when you've emptied the tank on high-round draft picks for the next couple of years.
 

Cellar-Door

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If I'm the Dolphins, why announce this trade now?

Hanging onto 1-3 could continue to leave the Pats to believe there would be a shot to get their man at 1-4, or even 1-7... letting them their rival know now that the top 3 picks will 100% be quarterbacks gives them more time to come up with another plan.

Also can't think of a reason the 49ers need to announce this now, unless there's a date by which they need to dump Jimmy to save dead money or cap space?
I mean, for the 49ers isn't it as simple as they want the league to process the trade? Do you really want to not finalize a key trade?
Also for MIA, they wanted to make the 2nd trade, and they can't do that until they finish the SF trade. If you're MIA is misinformation better for you than... doing the trades you want to do and having them in the bag?

THis trade doesn't really effect the Patriots' plans, except it means that they can't trade for #3. THere is no super-secret advantage MIA gets by being secretive. Not completing the trade brings risk, since technically SF or PHI could back out if it isnt done.
 

JCizzle

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If I'm the Dolphins, why announce this trade now?

Hanging onto 1-3 could continue to leave the Pats to believe there would be a shot to get their man at 1-4, or even 1-7... letting them their rival know now that the top 3 picks will 100% be quarterbacks gives them more time to come up with another plan.

Also can't think of a reason the 49ers need to announce this now, unless there's a date by which they need to dump Jimmy to save dead money or cap space?
Maybe the Dolphins did it to prevent the Watson situation from somehow clearing up (note: I personally think it's extremely unlikely, but it's the NFL so who knows), at which point the Niners make the same trade for him instead.
 

mcpickl

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See this makes two assumptions...
1. That anyone would pay him more
2. That the Patriots... or anyone else, would commit to him long term.

That's a pretty big set of assumptions, and I don't really think the second one is true. The Patriots would like to have Jimmy G I have no doubt. I don't think they're handing him a big money contract tomorrow if they have the chance. Staying with a good SF team gives him the best chance to put up the kind of season that makes him an in demand player in the offseason, and the Patriots, and other teams would still be there, but with more years and a lot more guaranteed money on the table.

The only reason to want to get moved is if you don't believe you can stay healthy and/or put up good numbers, then you take whatever you can get because you think you're never getting another big money deal anyway.
Right and you're making two assumptions...
1. That he's willing to take less when his team has already drafted his replacement
2. That the Patriots...or anyone else, won't commit to him long term

If I'm him, I'd rather take my chances with a team who didn't just take a QB with the 3rd overall pick, than one who did.

We make assumptions here. That's all fans can do.

The Patriots also don't have to hand him a big money contract tomorrow to be a better spot for him in his mind. They could just not have the #3 pick in the draft peeking over his shoulder waiting to start. He could just like knowing he's the clear starter for 2021.
 

Mooch

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Did I miss the second part of this trade?

Miami then continued its dealing just a short time later, sending that No. 12 pick, No. 123 and their 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for the No. 6 and No. 156 picks in this year's draft, it was announced.

Interesting.
 

JCizzle

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Again, I still think this is all leverage. But this is one of the good reporters in the bay area (Not just some hot take stuff):

View: https://twitter.com/jenniferleechan/status/1375512048847609859
I think it's worth paying $25M or whatever for a single year to protect the new QB who probably needs a year of development in Shannahan's system to be successful. IIRC, it was difficult to pick up for even a vet like Ryan in the first year (the dividends were in year 2), let alone a rookie.

Of course I say this knowing that they'll probably kill me by drafting Mac Jones like was speculated on the last page.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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So... let's do a reset of who might be in the Jimmy G sweepstakes, assuming he's cut before the 2021 season:

Carolina Panthers -- Although they do have the easiest path to Lance (who I'll presume is the 4th QB off the board).

Denver Broncos -- probably an upgrade on Lock, who's godfather John Elway is now kicked upstairs.

New England Patriots -- they have the need, and familiarity with BB and JMcD

Chicago Bears -- Jimmy G is the local hero, and they desperately need some juice. They wouldn't let Dalton's deal get n the way.

[I think it's a pretty good bet that one of the four teams above winds up with Lance, possibly another with Mac Jones.]

Washington Football Team -- I think they're fine with Fitz and Heinecke, but could be upgraded.

New Orleans Saints -- Might be a way to make Jimmy cost-affordable enough to get in their miserable cap.
 
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scott bankheadcase

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With all the cap talk it is important to consider the Niners absolutely can keep Jimmy if they want. They can afford to pay him this year, still be under the cap and trade/release him next season without much of a cap hit.

It's not like if they had traded for Watson or something, they don't need to get rid of him in any way.
 

Mugsy's Jock

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Did I miss the second part of this trade?

Miami then continued its dealing just a short time later, sending that No. 12 pick, No. 123 and their 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for the No. 6 and No. 156 picks in this year's draft, it was announced.

Interesting.
So the fish could very possibly still get Lance at 1-6... though the more likely target I'd guess is Pennell or Pitts.
 

DourDoerr

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Is it still a QB rich draft when you get the 3rd choice of those QBs? I'm not sure.

The bigger question is should the Fins have taken a top notch LT on a rookie contract in Sewell, or whoever they deem the best defender in the entire draft.
I get the buzz on Sewell, but I guess this decision would hinge on how they're ranking the LT's on their draft board. If they think they can get a good one a bit later, then they just picked up a lot of value for their trouble.
 

RedOctober3829

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So... let's do a reset of who might be in the Jimmy G sweepstakes, assuming he's cut before the 2021 season:

Carolina Panthers -- Although they do have the easiest path to Lance (who I'll presume is the 4th QB off the board).

Denver Broncos -- probably an upgrade on Lock, who's godfather John Elway is now kicked upstairs.

New England Patriots -- they have the need, and familiarity with BB and JMcD

Chicago Bears -- Jimmy G is the local hero, and they desperately need some juice. They wouldn't let Dalton's deal get n the way.

Washington Football Team -- I think they're fine with Fitz and Heinecke, but could be upgraded.

New Orleans Saints -- Might be a way to make Jimmy cost-affordable enough to get in their miserable cap.
SF won't just cut Jimmy. He'll be traded. Seattle may be in the mix if they move on from Russell Wilson. Houston if they move on from Deshaun Watson.
 

E5 Yaz

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Did I miss the second part of this trade?

Miami then continued its dealing just a short time later, sending that No. 12 pick, No. 123 and their 2022 first-round pick to the Eagles in exchange for the No. 6 and No. 156 picks in this year's draft, it was announced.

Interesting.
Just for record sake

View: https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/status/1375501638564110339


Miami might want Pitts ... the sort of TE who would drive BB's defense nuts
 

Mugsy's Jock

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SF won't just cut Jimmy. He'll be traded. Seattle may be in the mix if they move on from Russell Wilson. Houston if they move on from Deshaun Watson.
I wouldn't guess the Niners would prefer to let Jimmy stay in the division with Seattle.

Houston is interesting because Caserio and Easterby... but they have so little capital to trade.
 

4 6 3 DP

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So miami sends 3 for 6, the saleh pick, and a 2023 #1?

I'd have not done anything until draft day for that combined return.
 

DourDoerr

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I'd be very surprised if they got rid of JG before this season. It'd make some sense if it was before the FA signing period, but now they can't do much with the extra money beyond redoing/re-signing some players already on their roster. There's some value to that, of course, but this roster is already expensive and will get more so pretty soon with some hard decisions to make. They need to win now. JG's experience and ability is more valuable than that cap space for this team for this season.

JG's injury history has made him the equivalent of a house with a wood roof in a California forest during a long drought. Viable insurance is going to be expensive monetarily or in draft capital. They just paid it. I'd guess JG's gone after this season, however, even if he wins the SB.
 
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nighthob

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Because you just drafted his replacement.

Why take less money to be a stop gap when there are teams out there, like in the Foxboro area, that think you are their present and future.
I don’t think that anyone views JimmyG as anything but a stopgap. Including New England. He’s had one healthy season for his career and even if you traded for him today you’d be on the lookout for a replacement.
 

JM3

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I wouldn't guess the Niners would prefer to let Jimmy stay in the division with Seattle.

Houston is interesting because Caserio and Easterby... but they have so little capital to trade.
If they can help usher RW out of the division by doing so, they may place JG in bubble wrap & hand deliver him to Seahawks HQ.
 

Royal Reader

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With all the cap talk it is important to consider the Niners absolutely can keep Jimmy if they want. They can afford to pay him this year, still be under the cap and trade/release him next season without much of a cap hit.

It's not like if they had traded for Watson or something, they don't need to get rid of him in any way.
Right, and with most of Free Agency done, the major benefit of getting rid of that $25m is gone. I'd have thought you'd rather keep the guy for this year even if your rookie were ready to start day one, then have the cap space free for '22. He might demand a trade, but if there's not one out there, he isn't walking away from that much money.
 

mcpickl

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I don’t think that anyone views JimmyG as anything but a stopgap. Including New England. He’s had one healthy season for his career and even if you traded for him today you’d be on the lookout for a replacement.
I think New England would view him as their starter going forward.

They'd certainly think he could be their starter in 2022.

SF would view him as their QB for 2021 at the absolute max if they take a QB at #3.
 

nighthob

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I think New England would view him as their starter going forward.

They'd certainly think he could be their starter in 2022.

SF would view him as their QB for 2021 at the absolute max if they take a QB at #3.
I mean, sure, they can pencil him in for 16 games covering the ‘21 and ‘22 seasons. But by necessity you have to have another capable starter if you’re sending JimmyG out there eight games a year. So, you’d still need a long term QB that can stay on the field, because seven years into his career, we know that Garoppolo ain’t that guy.
 

mcpickl

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I mean, sure, they can pencil him in for 16 games covering the ‘21 and ‘22 seasons. But by necessity you have to have another capable starter if you’re sending JimmyG out there eight games a year. So, you’d still need a long term QB that can stay on the field, because seven years into his career, we know that Garoppolo ain’t that guy.
Sure

I'm talking about this from the Garapollo view, and not the teams.

If you're Garapollo, would you rather be in San Francisco, where you know pretty much no matter what you're going to be gone after the season, or another team that might want you to stick around for more than one year?

That's what we were debating.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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So miami sends 3 for 6, the saleh pick, and a 2023 #1?

I'd have not done anything until draft day for that combined return.
Why? I don't think they were going to get a better offer for what their goals were. Could they have gotten a higher quantity of picks? Yes. But they just managed to add a 2023 first while still being able to draft a franchise LT, TE, or WR. Sewell, Pitts, and Chase all are off the board at #12. SF traded up to take a QB (duh), so at minimum, one of those guys will be available to them at 6.

They get to draft a franchise cornerstone - which they would have done at #3 anyway - and added a first rounder in the process. This wasn't brilliant or anything, but its a solid, shrewd front office move.

Fuck the Dolphins.
 

Cellar-Door

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Sure

I'm talking about this from the Garapollo view, and not the teams.

If you're Garapollo, would you rather be in San Francisco, where you know pretty much no matter what you're going to be gone after the season, or another team that might want you to stick around for more than one year?

That's what we were debating.
I think it depends a great deal on what I'm hearing from Shannahan. If I am starting all year (if healthy) I want SF. It gives me the best chance to put up a really good season.
In NE I'm one training cap Hammy pull away from watching Cam Newton for 11-16 weeks.
 

mcpickl

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I think it depends a great deal on what I'm hearing from Shannahan. If I am starting all year (if healthy) I want SF. It gives me the best chance to put up a really good season.
In NE I'm one training cap Hammy pull away from watching Cam Newton for 11-16 weeks.
You think it's more likely that Newton beats out Garapollo for the Patriots job than the #3 pick beating out Garapollo for the SF job?

I strongly disagree with that.

I don't even think it would be a lock Newton is on the Pats roster if they trade for Garapollo.
 

4 6 3 DP

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Not looking to really fan flames but I have to think 3 to 6 in a 4 qb draft would get you a 2022 first rounder. 6 to 12 did. I understand your logic that they probably viewed this as a 7 player draft and didn't want to drop past there, but just doesn't feel like great return.
 

Cellar-Door

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You think it's more likely that Newton beats out Garapollo for the Patriots job than the #3 pick beating out Garapollo for the SF job?

I strongly disagree with that.

I don't even think it would be a lock Newton is on the Pats roster if they trade for Garapollo.
I would be shocked if the Patriots cut Newton, he's on a team friendly deal, and it's a solid deal for a backup, plus we saw from guys publicly lobbying for his return, and other public statements that he's really well respected around the league and in that locker-room, so they won't cut him, and he'll get at least a token chance.
Especially if the starter is Jimmy G, who has only touched 33% of his teams snaps once in 4 seasons with the 49ers. If you have Jimmy G as your starter you need a top backup, because he's more than likely gonna get starts.

I don't think Cam necessarily would beat out Jimmy in a competition, but Jimmy also is never healthy, and if Cam starts the season as the starter because Jimmy is hurt in camp and does even mediocre, I don't know that you can bench him.

In SF, if the commit to having the rookie sit the first year, Jimmy will get the starts until he gets hurt or plays really poorly.
 

mcpickl

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I would be shocked if the Patriots cut Newton, he's on a team friendly deal, and it's a solid deal for a backup, plus we saw from guys publicly lobbying for his return, and other public statements that he's really well respected around the league and in that locker-room, so they won't cut him, and he'll get at least a token chance.
Especially if the starter is Jimmy G, who has only touched 33% of his teams snaps once in 4 seasons with the 49ers. If you have Jimmy G as your starter you need a top backup, because he's more than likely gonna get starts.

I don't think Cam necessarily would beat out Jimmy in a competition, but Jimmy also is never healthy, and if Cam starts the season as the starter because Jimmy is hurt in camp and does even mediocre, I don't know that you can bench him.

In SF, if the commit to having the rookie sit the first year, Jimmy will get the starts until he gets hurt or plays really poorly.
I don't think they'd cut Newton either.

But I think they'd trade him if he were unhappy about sitting behind Garapollo.

And Jimmy can get hurt in SF too, as he's shown. The rookie is just as likely as Cam to be playing well, and if he is, even more unlikely to be benched than Cam would be.

I'd be shocked if SF committed to having the rookie sit the entire first year. When was the last time a QB picked in the top 5 didn't start at some point his rookie season? It doesn't happen. I think you have to go all the way back to Philip Rivers sittiing behind a hall of famer to find a guy who didn't start at least one game. Have to go back to Jamarcus Russell to find a guy who didn't at least start 7 games.

The rookie is going to play at some point, even if it's Lance.
 

Cellar-Door

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I don't think they'd cut Newton either.

But I think they'd trade him if he were unhappy about sitting behind Garapollo.

And Jimmy can get hurt in SF too, as he's shown. The rookie is just as likely as Cam to be playing well, and if he is, even more unlikely to be benched than Cam would be.

I'd be shocked if SF committed to having the rookie sit the entire first year. When was the last time a QB picked in the top 5 didn't start at some point his rookie season? It doesn't happen. I think you have to go all the way back to Philip Rivers sittiing behind a hall of famer to find a guy who didn't start at least one game. Have to go back to Jamarcus Russell to find a guy who didn't at least start 7 games.

The rookie is going to play at some point, even if it's Lance.
top 5 is a tiny sample, and it's going to be skewed by many of those guys going to terrible teams with no playoff hopes or established QBs. It's rare a playoff caliber team gets to draft a top 10 QB, nevermind top 5. If we expand it to top 10, you get the example only a few years ago that beat writers say Shanahan has talked about as the model... Mahomes in 2017.

Generally though, QBs drafted high start because of 1 of 4 things:
1. They don't have any real competition
2. The QB ahead of them plays poorly
3. The QB ahead of them gets hurt
4. The season is essentially over because the team has a bad record.
 

JCizzle

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And hopefully Shanahan the younger won't fuck up his QB by sending him out on a shitty field with a knee injury like his dad did.
Still one of the most irresponsible things I've ever seen an organization do. Allowing a clearly injured hyper-competitive 22 year old kid to play on that field was awful. The coach/GM never should have allowed the decision to be made by the player.

It's easy to forget based on everything else he did in his career, but he was special his rookie year up until the injury and was never the same.
 

rymflaherty

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I get the buzz on Sewell, but I guess this decision would hinge on how they're ranking the LT's on their draft board. If they think they can get a good one a bit later, then they just picked up a lot of value for their trouble.
Assuming Tua is the starter, which I do, you also have to question if an elite LT is as valuable with a left-handed QB.
The Dolphins may have a potential market inefficiency, where they can address the blindside with far less capital.
 

mcpickl

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top 5 is a tiny sample, and it's going to be skewed by many of those guys going to terrible teams with no playoff hopes or established QBs. It's rare a playoff caliber team gets to draft a top 10 QB, nevermind top 5. If we expand it to top 10, you get the example only a few years ago that beat writers say Shanahan has talked about as the model... Mahomes in 2017.

Generally though, QBs drafted high start because of 1 of 4 things:
1. They don't have any real competition
2. The QB ahead of them plays poorly
3. The QB ahead of them gets hurt
4. The season is essentially over because the team has a bad record.
OK
 

tims4wins

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Assuming Tua is the starter, which I do, you also have to question if an elite LT is as valuable with a left-handed QB.
The Dolphins may have a potential market inefficiency, where they can address the blindside with far less capital.
This is true, but why not take the best remaining tackle at 12 (and there is likely to be a pretty good one there) and hang onto the 2022 first rounder? Is the difference between Sewell and Darisaw or whoever worth the 2022 first? I can't see that. I am thinking Miami is using 6 on Pitts or WR1, or possibly a guy like Parsons.
 

Zososoxfan

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This is true, but why not take the best remaining tackle at 12 (and there is likely to be a pretty good one there) and hang onto the 2022 first rounder? Is the difference between Sewell and Darisaw or whoever worth the 2022 first? I can't see that. I am thinking Miami is using 6 on Pitts or WR1, or possibly a guy like Parsons.
This was my gut feeling after hearing about the 2nd transaction as well, but I couldn't articulate it.
 

tims4wins

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This was my gut feeling after hearing about the 2nd transaction as well, but I couldn't articulate it.
Yeah given they have pick 18, I think they use 6 on a playmaker and 18 on a tackle, or even trade up a few slots from 18 to grab the tackle they want.