Nick Pivetta

Niastri

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After a complete game 2 hitter, I think this thread deserves to be topped.

Pivetta has always had great stuff, but his last three starts have been terrific. Today he was so dominant today they let him go into the fourth time around the order and throw 112 pitches.

His last three starts his combined line is:

22IP 10H 2ER 1BB 20K

So... What made Pivetta into the second coming of Pedro the last three games?

Please don't tell me random variance!
 

bosox188

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His game log really doesn't show anything that stands out from tonight's game. Pitch mix roughly the same, velocity and spin rates fairly close to season averages. The changeup had an extra 4 inches of vertical break but he only threw it 8 times, everything else around the same or less break.

51710

His Statcast doesn't look great, nor do most of his expected values in Cameron Grove's stuff model. Eno Sarris's Pitching+ has him as just slightly above league average, with the raw stuff a bit higher and location a bit lower. These models supposedly stabilize at 300 pitchers for starters, so there's enough of a sample by now.

51713

I'd guess he's going to continue to be a bit of a streaky pitcher as the command goes in and out.
 

Max Power

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After a complete game 2 hitter, I think this thread deserves to be topped.

Pivetta has always had great stuff, but his last three starts have been terrific. Today he was so dominant today they let him go into the fourth time around the order and throw 112 pitches.

His last three starts his combined line is:

22IP 10H 2ER 1BB 20K

So... What made Pivetta into the second coming of Pedro the last three games?

Please don't tell me random variance!
Well, he didn't give up 5 homers in an inning, so that really helped.

Pivetta's success seems to be 100% correlated with his control. He doesn't give up a ton of hits, so as long as he keeps the walks under control he does well.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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Missed the game tonight but I did a double take when I saw the box score. Four times through the order? Complete game? 112 pitches? Feels like some sort of time warp.
 

Daniel_Son

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He's gotta be one of the most one-sided trades in team history, right? I mean we got him (and Seabold) for one month of Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree.
 

scottyno

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He's gotta be one of the most one-sided trades in team history, right? I mean we got him (and Seabold) for one month of Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree.
And the 2 of them kept the Phillies from making the playoffs. They missed out by 1 game and between them they had an era over 9 in 22+ innings.

Easily one of Bloom's best moves.
 

BaseballJones

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What's crazy is that we look at 112 pitches and some people will think that's abuse of his arm to throw that many. 112 used to be quite common. I was so happy to see him complete the game - he had to be totally pumped. It was only the 2nd complete game of his career.

Meanwhile, the Sox have won 5 of their last 8, and have averaged 5.8 runs a game over that stretch, after averaging fewer than 3 runs a game to that point. It's amazing what can happen if the bats actually show up.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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It's funny, Pete Abe was on Twitter during the first AB of the game saying it was ominous that Altuve had worked 9 pitches from Pivetta already in a game where they needed the starter to go deep. And then Altuve homered on the next pitch.

From then on, Pivetta was unhittable.
 

Max Power

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What's crazy is that we look at 112 pitches and some people will think that's abuse of his arm to throw that many. 112 used to be quite common. I was so happy to see him complete the game - he had to be totally pumped. It was only the 2nd complete game of his career.

Meanwhile, the Sox have won 5 of their last 8, and have averaged 5.8 runs a game over that stretch, after averaging fewer than 3 runs a game to that point. It's amazing what can happen if the bats actually show up.
If they average winning 5 of 8 over the rest of the season, they'll be at 93 wins and in the playoffs.
 

TFisNEXT

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He's gotta be one of the most one-sided trades in team history, right? I mean we got him (and Seabold) for one month of Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree.
It's no "Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb" but it's definitely one of the top trades in the past few decades. Pivetta doesn't dazzle usually, but he's been pretty durable and performed above average since he arrived here in 2020. His K numbers are enticing enough that you always wonder how good he could be if he reduced his walk rate down to 2 or 2.5 BB/9. Someone like Lance Lynn was able to do that reduction in walk rate in his post-age 30 years, but I'm not sure how common it is to see that.
 

chrisfont9

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It's no "Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb" but it's definitely one of the top trades in the past few decades. Pivetta doesn't dazzle usually, but he's been pretty durable and performed above average since he arrived here in 2020. His K numbers are enticing enough that you always wonder how good he could be if he reduced his walk rate down to 2 or 2.5 BB/9. Someone like Lance Lynn was able to do that reduction in walk rate in his post-age 30 years, but I'm not sure how common it is to see that.
He was pretty forgettable in Philly, I can see why they gambled that his next few seasons were not going to be worth the arb $. And last season he didn't exactly prove the Phillies wrong except in spurts. But the high ceiling is still there and the floor is solid mid/end of the rotation contributor. Also culture-wise, I think he's a good fit for this team. He's a pretty serious competitor even by MLB standards.
 

Niastri

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It's no "Varitek and Derek Lowe for Heathcliff Slocumb" but it's definitely one of the top trades in the past few decades. Pivetta doesn't dazzle usually, but he's been pretty durable and performed above average since he arrived here in 2020. His K numbers are enticing enough that you always wonder how good he could be if he reduced his walk rate down to 2 or 2.5 BB/9. Someone like Lance Lynn was able to do that reduction in walk rate in his post-age 30 years, but I'm not sure how common it is to see that.
If Pivetta continues his current improvement, the trade for him might start to look like Slocum for Lowe and Varitek...

In his last year in Philly, Pivetta had 15.9 hits/9 and 4.8 hr/9 with only 1.6 bb/9 and 6.4 so/9.

His numbers since he got here look entirely different. He was so hittable in Philly, no wonder they gave up.

Once he got here, he got a little wilder, but his hits cut in half and his strikeouts shot up.

But his bb/9 has dropped each year, while his other new and improved numbers have stayed similar. His k/bb is almost 3 this year. Combine his whip of about 1.15 with seeing a k an inning, and he's looking like a number 3 starter for a few more years.

And that's assuming he hasn't really turned a corner his last three starts, it's just random variation. If he's actually found a new level of performance, look out.

Either way, what amazing scouting to take a guy that bad and turn him around immediately. What a steal of a trade by Bloome.
 

Sin Duda

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Not sure the two trades are quite comparable yet.

Varitek (24.2 Bref WAR) + Lowe (34.3) - Slocumb (1.5 post-trade) = 57.0 >> 5.6 = Pivetta (3.8) + Seabold (0.0) - Embree (-1.2) - Workman (-0.6*).

But if Pivetta and Seabold put up 5 seasons each of 5 WAR (near Chris Sale average season when healthy), then they're comparable.

*I didn't know how to deal with Workman's 0.3 WAR after returning to the Red Sox in 2021.
 

pokey_reese

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Pivetta is now tied for the league lead in complete games with Walker Buehler! They are the only two people to have thrown one this year, which is nuts.
 

TFisNEXT

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Pivetta is now tied for the league lead in complete games with Walker Buehler! They are the only two people to have thrown one this year, which is nuts.
Reid Detmers (threw a no hitter last week) and Patrick Corbin have also thrown CGs but they don't have enough innings to "qualify" for ERA/WHIP leaders so you may have missed those when looking it up.

Corbin's was also an 8 inning CG loss on the road....but it still qualifies as a CG.
 

pokey_reese

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Reid Detmers (threw a no hitter last week) and Patrick Corbin have also thrown CGs but they don't have enough innings to "qualify" for ERA/WHIP leaders so you may have missed those when looking it up.

Corbin's was also an 8 inning CG loss on the road....but it still qualifies as a CG.
Ah, thank you, that's indeed what happened.
 

streeter88

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Game log shows the 1st and 7th innings were both full of hard hit balls from the top of their lineup - Altuve with the HR in the first then Brantley’s double in the 7th, but then there were two other loud outs on the first and another in the seventh. So a bit of luck and maybe good fielding to limit the damage (I didn’t watch the game).

Other than those being their best hitters, was anything else different in those innings (edit) as there was no other hard contact in the rest of the game?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Nick deserves a little attention. After a serious crappy start to the season he's really turned it around over his last 4 starts. Last night had an old school "quality start"- 6 innings, 3 runs allowed. He reminds me of Derek Lowe in a way- just a workhorse type that will have some dominant stretches and some stretches of garbage but by years end he'll have been a rotation anchor.
A little speculation on the rotation going forward (assuming Sale returning), he should keep his spot. I would let Sale bump Whitlock back to the pen (with Whitlock ready to come in after 4 innings from Sale until he can build up to 100 pitches again) and then let Paxton push Hill (to the pen?). I'm not confident in the starting rotation staying as effective as has been so far this season much longer but assuming Paxton and Sale can get back in mid-late June and the Sox can at least continue to stay in a wildcard spot hunt... those changes to both the pen and the rotation make this team very dangerous.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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13 BB in 16.1 IP in first four starts
3 BB in 32.1 IP in last five starts
That's crazy. Has there been any insight into WTF happened between games 4 and 5? If it's a simple adjustment, who was responsible? And if he can keep this up he's a freaking top of a rotation guy! (I don't think he will but it's exciting to think about)
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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F’in Pivetta! Yeah, against basically a AAA team but da man dude has been a legit ace since that 180* turnaround.

after his 5th start on May 1st he had all over 21 innings with 25 hits allowed, 13BB’s and 21K’s with a 7.84 ERA.
Sine then, in 42 innings he’s allowed 22 hits, 6 ER, 8BB’s and 37 K’s to a 1.32 ERA.
And the guy still seems to be getting no discussion here. Do posters here not trust this? His FIP is still below 3 so perhaps regression should be expected- he still is pitching like a legit ace.
 

Harry Hooper

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The broadcast caught some nice interplay in the dugout between Pivetta and Vaz when he was done for the day. They seem to be working very well together as a battery.
 

chrisfont9

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This isn't much of a comment by SOSH standards, but OMG that curve! I grew up watching Bruce Hurst drop those beauties in there and have always been a sucker for a great deuce. And boy was Pivetta throwing some gorgeous ones. Winning and losing stuff is great but sometimes it's nice to just enjoy the aesthetics of great baseball.
 

teddywingman

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I haven't watched much baseball this year, but I check the box scores. 2 runs over 15 innings in his last two starts. Dudes on a roll, with only a minor hiccup on June 9th.
 

RG33

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This isn't much of a comment by SOSH standards, but OMG that curve! I grew up watching Bruce Hurst drop those beauties in there and have always been a sucker for a great deuce. And boy was Pivetta throwing some gorgeous ones. Winning and losing stuff is great but sometimes it's nice to just enjoy the aesthetics of great baseball.
It feels like you just gave yourself a fantastic tagline for your avatar. Mods . . . .?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I haven't watched much baseball this year, but I check the box scores. 2 runs over 15 innings in his last two starts. Dudes on a roll, with only a minor hiccup on June 9th.
im not surprised… he had some great moments past season and shone in the playoffs. I was more surprised by his awful first several starts. While he currently is exceeding any most Optimistic projections…. I still thought he could/would become a top of a rotation Guy. Of course I don’t know how to know how much more of this to expect
 

BaseballJones

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Pivetta's season...

First 5 games: 7.84 era, 4 ip per start, 1.84 whip, opponents .884 ops, team was 0-5
Last 9 games: 1.77 era, 6.2 ip per start, 0.84 whip, opponents .511 ops, team is 7-2

Quite a turnaround.
 

YTF

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Pivetta's season...

First 5 games: 7.84 era, 4 ip per start, 1.84 whip, opponents .884 ops, team was 0-5
Last 9 games: 1.77 era, 6.2 ip per start, 0.84 whip, opponents .511 ops, team is 7-2

Quite a turnaround.
He's becoming the guy that the Phillies always hope he would be. Here's hoping that he's found something and can hold onto it. Also worth noting that he's not a FA until '25.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He's becoming the guy that the Phillies always hope he would be. Here's hoping that he's found something and can hold onto it. Also worth noting that he's not a FA until '25.
It's always impossible to tell from just watching a guy- but he seems like he's built to be a pitcher. I don't see him with any long term arm problems- he reminds me of Derek Lowe in a way so even if he doesn't sustain this level of pitching (which seems unlikely) he's always going to have a lot of value for a likely 7 innings per game. Always goes out. 4.00-ish ERA is what I am expecting.
Is that worth buying out some arb years and offering a 6 year contract?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Pivetta's season...

First 5 games: 7.84 era, 4 ip per start, 1.84 whip, opponents .884 ops, team was 0-5
Last 9 games: 1.77 era, 6.2 ip per start, 0.84 whip, opponents .511 ops, team is 7-2

Quite a turnaround.
First 5 games: 21k/13bb, 21.9% K rate, 13.5% BB%, 4.2% HR%, .362 BAbip. 0.35 GB, 37% LD% .305/.396/.488
last 9 games: 61k/16bb, 26.2% K rate, 6.9% BB%. 1.7% HR%, .207 BAbip. 0.57 GB, 21% LD%. .163/.228/.284.


A lot of good stuff in there.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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First 5 games: 21k/13bb, 21.9% K rate, 13.5% BB%, 4.2% HR%, .362 BAbip. 0.35 GB, 37% LD% .305/.396/.488
last 9 games: 61k/16bb, 26.2% K rate, 6.9% BB%. 1.7% HR%, .207 BAbip. 0.57 GB, 21% LD%. .163/.228/.284.


A lot of good stuff in there.
So do the BAbip numbers suggest he was unlucky in his first 5 games or lucky in his last 9 games, or both?

Pretty impressive that he's cut down on the walks though, as that's always seemed to be an Achilles Heal for him.
 

effectivelywild

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So do the BAbip numbers suggest he was unlucky in his first 5 games or lucky in his last 9 games, or both?

Pretty impressive that he's cut down on the walks though, as that's always seemed to be an Achilles Heal for him.
Some of both. You don't hold batters to ~.160 average without significant luck. Even prime Pedro couldn't maintain a sub .210 BABIP. But the things that he has more control over---K%, BB% and HR%, GB rate and LD% (the last one is probably less sticky) all support the idea that it's not just luck.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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He was definitely garbage tonight. But let’s keep this in perspective…. He’s expected to be at best a middle of the rotation guy.
 

greek_gawd_of_walks

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I'm hoping for a "dead arm" scenario he pitched through. Velocity was down. Location was fucked. But he was hitting 95-96 regularly three starts ago, no? Seemed like he was really trying to guts and guile his way tonight. He might need a skip, when the reinforcements allow.

My shitty two cents.
 

joe dokes

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I'm hoping for a "dead arm" scenario he pitched through. Velocity was down. Location was fucked. But he was hitting 95-96 regularly three starts ago, no? Seemed like he was really trying to guts and guile his way tonight. He might need a skip, when the reinforcements allow.

My shitty two cents.
All-star break coming at the right time. His next start on normal rest is Friday at NYY. He can then get at least a week off.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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In "Spring Break" with Sale "ready to pitch" (so many quotes) the rotation looked like:

Sale
Eovaldi
Pivetta
Wacha
Hill

When Sale went down everyone stepped up, none more so than Pivetta. Comments in the game threads that he was expected to be a "stopper" are... game thready. Honestly, after 1.25 years of Pivetta even expecting him to be "no. 3" were optimistic. His ERA right now is just north of 4.00. If Sale and Eovaldi can return and look like the good versions of themselves, having Pivetta at a normalized 4.00 ERA from here on out is still exceeding expectations. But yeah... hopefully not an injury, and just hitting a mid-season wall. I really like how he pitches and am bullish on his future.