NHL Expansion Draft (July 21)

Ferm Sheller

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The expansion draft, in which the Seattle Kraken will get to pluck unprotected players off of teams' rosters, is scheduled for July 21st. Key rules are that the Kraken must take at least 14 F, 9 D, and 3 G, and they also must take at least one player from every team's roster but the Vegas Knights's.

With regard to protecting players (initially), the Bruins have two choices:

1. 7 F, 3 D, and 1 G; or
2. Any 8 skaters (F or D) and 1 G.

Free agents (e.g., Krecji, Hall, Rask) need not be protected, but of course leaving them unsigned going into the draft means that you risk them signing elsewhere (doesn't seem likely in the case of either Krecji or Rask, but Hall might not be as committed to Boston).

Further, players with less than two years' professional service (most notably, Swayman, Studnicka, Vaakanainen, Ahcan) need not be protected, and those with Non-Movement Clauses (Bergy, Marchand, Coyle) must be protected.

With all of this in mind, which of route (1) or (2) do the Bruins go? (I think that they have to go with option 1, but others might disagree.) And who do they protect? (Please put your answer in bold.)

I'll take a stab at it, but I'm sure others will convince me that at least part of my list is wrong:

Option (1):

Forwards
Marchand (NMC)
Bergeron (NMC)
Pastrnak
Coyle (NMC)
Frederic
DeBrusk (Has trade value)
Smith (Or Hall if they want to sign him before July 21)

Defensemen
McAvoy
Carlo
Grzelyck

Goalie
Vladar


Bonus Question: Who do they lose (in total)? I say that they lose only Lauzon.
 
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ColdSoxPack

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Your list is solid. Here is a factoid I read in The Athletic today which I will just quote:

"if Seattle signed pending UFAs such as Alex Ovechkin (I know, I know) or Phillip Danault or Zach Hyman, whatever the case, those UFA signings by the Kraken before July 21 at 10 a.m. ET would count as Seattle’ expansion draft picks from those respective NHL clubs (keep in mind, as per the rules, at least 20 of Seattle’s 30 expansion draft selections must be players under contract for next season).
Now, a cynic might say why would Seattle use this particular time to sign a UFA and use up its expansion draft pick from an NHL club as opposed to waiting until the July 28 UFA market opens? That way it would keep the ability to select another player from that NHL club in the expansion draft.
So a little nudge, nudge, wink, wink with the pending UFA in question."

Does this not seem screwed up?

My answer to your bonus question is Clifton.
 

Ferm Sheller

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My guess is that the NHL doesn't have a problem with it as it's all just part of the opportunity that Seattle's being given and there's no (obvious) work around.

Was that a rule in the LVK's draft? Did they sign any FAs before their draft?
 

ColdSoxPack

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Yes it was also allowed in 2017. Researching to see if LVK did it.

Edit: I can't find that they signed any free agents before the draft. I found a quote from George McPhee that he was not a fan of free agent signings at that time.
 
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Lose Remerswaal

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The expansion draft, in which the Seattle Kraken will get to pluck unprotected players off of teams' rosters, is scheduled for July 21st. Key rules are that the Kraken can take a total of 14 F, 9 D, and 3 G, and must take at least one player from every team's roster but the Vegas Knights's.
I am confused. If they can take a total of 26 players, how does that cover "every team's roster" when there are 30 (plus Vegas)?
 

Ferm Sheller

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I read it on the NHL site. They say it just like you said it. They REALLY need editors (the Lightning schedule last night and now this)
Yes, I should never have trusted those bastards. From now on I'm sourcing all of my info from Wikipedia like the kids do.
 

wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
I have not thought through this maybe as much as I should, but I'm not sure I'd protect DeBrusk.

If he gets taken it is a goodly amount of money they could spend elsewhere. I also doubt he would get taken anyway and then rolling the dice on it allows for one other player to get protected.

I guess I'm unclear on just how much trade value he really has.
 

ColdSoxPack

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I have not thought through this maybe as much as I should, but I'm not sure I'd protect DeBrusk.

If he gets taken it is a goodly amount of money they could spend elsewhere. I also doubt he would get taken anyway and then rolling the dice on it allows for one other player to get protected.

I guess I'm unclear on just how much trade value he really has.
Any trade value at all is better than giving him away but I also have no idea.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I have not thought through this maybe as much as I should, but I'm not sure I'd protect DeBrusk.

If he gets taken it is a goodly amount of money they could spend elsewhere. I also doubt he would get taken anyway and then rolling the dice on it allows for one other player to get protected.

I guess I'm unclear on just how much trade value he really has.
He's 24 and he had 27 goals one year, so I think that they could get something of value for him. The question is: who would they keep instead of him? Lazar? Kase?
 

burstnbloom

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Forwards
Bergeron
Pasta
Marchand
Coyle
Debrusk
Smith
Frederic

defense
Chuck Norris
Gryz
Carlo

goalie
Vladar

I think they lose Lauzon and it’s no biggie. He doesn’t strike me as anything more than a replacement level defender. The only struggle I had was Ritchie or Frederic. I’m not all that excited about either but I could see Frederic being taken over Lauzon and I don’t feel the same for Ritchie because his cost will be higher as an rfa.

Seattle has built an insanely smart front office so they will absolutely take the player that hurts each team the most, I just don’t really think the bruins have anyone to expose that is all that worrisome.
 

BigMike

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Forwards
Bergeron
Pasta
Marchand
Coyle
Debrusk
Smith
Frederic

defense
Chuck Norris
Gryz
Carlo

goalie
Vladar

I think they lose Lauzon and it’s no biggie. He doesn’t strike me as anything more than a replacement level defender. The only struggle I had was Ritchie or Frederic. I’m not all that excited about either but I could see Frederic being taken over Lauzon and I don’t feel the same for Ritchie because his cost will be higher as an rfa.

Seattle has built an insanely smart front office so they will absolutely take the player that hurts each team the most, I just don’t really think the bruins have anyone to expose that is all that worrisome.
it is a challenge to find 7 forwards worth protecting. If they could reach a deal with Hall or Krejci earlier and protect them.

5 forwards is easy to me and the minimum, Bergeron, Pasta, Marchand, Coyle (because of the NMC), and Smith. If Coyle didn't have the NMC is would be tougher call, as he dramatically underperformed his contract this year, but you have to hope he rebounds

Anyway the other forward options
Frederick. Seems likely to be no more than a 4th liner at this point, but I still have hope he can be a good one, and the plus is he should be inexpensive for the next 2-3 years. I protect

Debrusk. Tough call as he had a miserable season, but he remains a guy who put up 40+ points as a 21 and 22 year old player in the league, and was even close to the 40 point pace year 3. I may be nuts, but I still think he is has value around the league, and can bounce back to be at worst a good 3rd line wing.

Ritchie. Utterly useless for me, He simply doesn't skate at an NHL level, and is a huge liability in postseason hockey. Person I look to deal him, but aside from that I expose him, and don't qualify him. My concern is he gets qualified and gets a couple years at around 3 million.

In terms of the defense, you leave Clifton, Lauzon, and Zboril unprotected. I assume Seattle takes Lauzon, but wouldn't rule out Clifton
 

McDrew

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I wanted to write a post about a possible "trade to take a bad contract" deal. I can't find one. John Moore's contract isn't awful, and the cost of giving it up is going to be a player that's going to cost more than his contract to replace. I really think the B's just lose Lauzon and move forward with their cap space.
 

cshea

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Bruins protect:

Bergeron
Marchand
Pastrnak
Coyle
DeBrusk
Smith
Frederic

McAvoy
Grzelyck
Carlo

Vladar

I don't think there's many surprises here. Guess they could protect Ritchie over Frederic if they felt he's more valuable. I suppose Kase is a possibility too but I feel like he's going to be non-QO'd and thus a UFA (hope they can bring him back).

They're going to lose a D. Just depends on who Seattle's staff prefers from Clifton, Lauzon and Zboril. If it was me, I'd take Clifton but maybe they're high on Lauzon.
 

burstnbloom

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I think they take Clifton as well. There are a lot of LHD going unprotected and both guys are kinda "eh" at a similar level. I'd prefer the RHD. Seattle has an extremely analytics focused front office so I wouldn't be surprised if they take Kase as a flyer since the two D are essentially 7th D on any good team. Kase could be a homerun if he returns to form.
 

cshea

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The protected lists are due to the league on Saturday. Some news filtering out already.

Sabres asked Jeff Skinner to waive his NMC, and he agreed, for the purpose of exposing him to Seattle. 6 years left at $9 million so it's very unlikely he gets selected by Seattle. I guess it lets the Sabres protect Bjork!

Rumblings that Nashville will leave Matt Duchene unprotected. 5 years at $8 million is left on that contract. Nashville is probably an 8-skater protection team since they would likely protect Josi, Ellis, Ekholm and Fabbro on the blue line. Don't think Seattle would bite here either, but you never know.

I'm really fascinated to see how this expansion draft goes. Vegas pantsed the league. Will Seattle be able to do the same, or with the rest of the league wise up?
 

teds_head

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Assuming the B's value 2nd/3rd line defensemen (Clifton/Lauzon) more than a 4th line forward, do they leave Frederic exposed in hopes that Seattle grabs him as a former 1st round pick with potential of becoming a 2nd or 3rd liner for them? I would consider it.

I think DeBrusk gets protected for sure. While he has waned recently, he still has value in the eyes of other teams (e.g. Edmonton, his hometown and where Pops is a broadcaster)
 

Salem's Lot

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Assuming the B's value 2nd/3rd line defensemen (Clifton/Lauzon) more than a 4th line forward, do they leave Frederic exposed in hopes that Seattle grabs him as a former 1st round pick with potential of becoming a 2nd or 3rd liner for them? I would consider it.

I think DeBrusk gets protected for sure. While he has waned recently, he still has value in the eyes of other teams (e.g. Edmonton, his hometown and where Pops is a broadcaster)
Frederic has trade value. They won’t want to lose him for nothing.
 

Zososoxfan

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The protected lists are due to the league on Saturday. Some news filtering out already.

Sabres asked Jeff Skinner to waive his NMC, and he agreed, for the purpose of exposing him to Seattle. 6 years left at $9 million so it's very unlikely he gets selected by Seattle. I guess it lets the Sabres protect Bjork!

Rumblings that Nashville will leave Matt Duchene unprotected. 5 years at $8 million is left on that contract. Nashville is probably an 8-skater protection team since they would likely protect Josi, Ellis, Ekholm and Fabbro on the blue line. Don't think Seattle would bite here either, but you never know.

I'm really fascinated to see how this expansion draft goes. Vegas pantsed the league. Will Seattle be able to do the same, or with the rest of the league wise up?
Is there a good article anywhere that explains how Vegas did so well? Is there anything specific to look out for?
 

ColdSoxPack

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Is there a good article anywhere that explains how Vegas did so well? Is there anything specific to look out for?
This is what NBC sports.com is saying about why Vegas crushed it:

What got teams into trouble in 2017 is a lot of them completely panicked and lost their minds about losing a third-line forward or second-pairing defenseman — or saw it as an opportunity to dump bad contracts — that they had to make side deals with Vegas.
A lot of those side deals ended up costing them more talent, and in the process helped build Vegas into an immediate contender. Vegas got multiple players and draft picks from several teams that helped turn them into an immediate success. Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith from Florida. Erik Haula and Alex Tuch from Minnesota. William Karlsson and a first-round pick (used on Nick Suzuki, who was later traded for Max Pacioretty) from Columbus.
Seattle should be smelling blood in the water right now at the thought of extracting assets from desperate teams looking to dump a contract (Vancouver) or to protect specific players (teams that do no want to lose players they deem too valuable). Do not let them take advantage of that.
Let them take their one player and be done with it. Do not make it worse by giving them more assets than you need to give them. Nobody is going to lose a franchise player or even one of their top-five or six players. Do not galaxy brain this.
 

PedroSpecialK

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It’d be a huge get out of jail free card for Bergevin if Seattle took Price and I think Montreal would get closer to being a long-term contender if - but yeah the meltdown would be awesome
 

Ferm Sheller

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Seattle could pick him and trade him, right? Any team want him at his price (no pun intended)?
 

BostonFanInCanesLand

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