That’s what we’re going to find out. High stakes game of chicken here.So.....if Houston won't trade him, will Watson sit out?
In his defense, he didn't like that they consistently had terrible lines. DAL spent a lot of resources building a good line, and one would expect they will continue to emphasize it.If he didn't like the offensive line in Seattle, Dallas' is not much better given the injuries they had this year.
He’s pocketed about 40M before taxes so far in his NFL career, and while his extension is huge he only stands to make 10.5M in cash this upcoming season so the recipe is there for a prolonged holdout into the regular season.That’s what we’re going to find out. High stakes game of chicken here.
Obviously, it would be best for the Texans to get a boatload of picks and/or a QB to go with them, and just move on. But it seems like their tolerance of risk in holding out for a really good trade could be high.Trading Watson would cost the Texans $21.6 million in dead money against this year's salary cap -- a significant hit, since his cap number if he's on the team is just $15.94 million.
Any team acquiring the young superstar would get a tremendous bargain in 2021, as Watson is scheduled to earn just $10.54 million in salary this year before that number jumps to $35 million in 2022, $37 million in 2023 and $32 million each in 2024 and 2025.
Agreed. It sucks for the organization but they're pretty much the reason this has occurred so I don't feel too badly. Caserio can get a king's ransom for Watson whenever he wants and needs to do it. Posture all you want until it's time to pull the trigger...but it makes sense for the organization to trade him and not deal with the distraction and PR nightmare that would result with a staring contest.He’s pocketed about 40M before taxes so far in his NFL career, and while his extension is huge he only stands to make 10.5M in cash this upcoming season so the recipe is there for a prolonged holdout into the regular season.
Obviously, if he sits on the reserve list for enough regular season games (is it 10-11?) his contract will toll, but he can absolutely take the approach Leveon Bell (who sat out a full season under the franchise tag) and Logan Mankins (who sat out until he had to return to earn a year of service time) did by sitting out regular season games. I see no reason why Houston would doubt his resolve at this point, or what they would gain by letting him sit out for a full year. Presumably that would only make the guy hate them even more, no? Is there precedent for a team keeping a prominent player under widely known, visible duress for more than a year?
If the relationship proves irreparably harmed, then I don’t see the logic or end game in Houston digging in for 1-2 years. Hope the relationship improves? How can that happen when Cal McNair and Easterby are firmly entrenched?
The #Texans remain unwilling to discuss QB Deshaun Watson with other teams, some of whom have resorted to leaving voicemails with trade offers, per sources. Watson spoke briefly to coach David Culley recently, but the two still haven’t met in person. Houston not budging.
Houston's leverage is that Watson doesn't get paid.View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1365042560809467904
good luck HOU. you hold zero leverage, when he can just sit out.
Well sort of. If he sits out the whole season then he's right back where he is now again next season. I think.View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1365042560809467904
good luck HOU. you hold zero leverage, when he can just sit out.
He can sit out and not get paid and lose 1/15th of his career.View: https://twitter.com/TomPelissero/status/1365042560809467904
good luck HOU. you hold zero leverage, when he can just sit out.
I wouldn't be shocked if he does that.... His relationship with the team is that brokenHe can sit out and not get paid and lose 1/15th of his career.
Dude takes a beating. Im sure he wouldnt hate a shortened season that could prolong his career. Taking 10 or 11 games off and coasting through the last few games does nothing for the team and it only hurts the return they get for him (1 less year under contract for trade partner, risk of injury, rusty after a year off, etc).He can sit out and not get paid and lose 1/15th of his career.
Maybe, but losing a year is much less of a disincentive for a QB than any other position. Skipping a year on a bad team with a bad line might actually give him a year or two at the end of his career.He can sit out and not get paid and lose 1/15th of his career.
Yeah, with the tire fire in Houston, he may see it as him losing a season either way, and at least by sitting out he doesn't get hit. His leverage, I guess, is that every year he can play the minimum number of games to satisfy a year of his contract. He will probably win the team a couple of games to stop them getting a shot at a no brainer replacement, but they'll also have to either draft someone to play the game he sits out, or roll with a backup level guy. The team is never good, and also can't meaningfully rebuild.Maybe, but losing a year is much less of a disincentive for a QB than any other position. Skipping a year on a bad team with a bad line might actually give him a year or two at the end of his career.
This is why the Texans are playing the Watson thing the way they are. Needing to trade Watson is manageable if they can get a fair return; if they let him essentially choose his destination, that’s a different story. (It’s ok for Wilson because he doesn’t appear to want out of Seattle at all costs the way Watson wants out of Houston.)
Can’t they suspend him at some point for failure to report?Yeah, with the tire fire in Houston, he may see it as him losing a season either way, and at least by sitting out he doesn't get hit. His leverage, I guess, is that every year he can play the minimum number of games to satisfy a year of his contract. He will probably win the team a couple of games to stop them getting a shot at a no brainer replacement, but they'll also have to either draft someone to play the game he sits out, or roll with a backup level guy. The team is never good, and also can't meaningfully rebuild.
But at what point do these punitive measures destroy the team-player relationship? Does the Texans' brass think they can punish Watson into submission? That he'd come back and be a good soldier after a protracted battle?Can’t they suspend him at some point for failure to report?
Exactly, there's a point where the pendulum starts to swing away from this being in the Texans' favor. Since their entire stated premise this season is to create a winning culture, turning up the animosity with the QB would appear to be counter-productive.... if the Texans refuse to deal Watson and he comes to camp unhappy...that can be its own fiasco that submarines the team on the field and their ability to swing a trade.
If I’m running the Texans, then I’m publicly saying the things the Texans are but privately working hard to accommodate Watson’s request. But if he starts trying to limit my options and choose his destination, the calculus changes.But at what point do these punitive measures destroy the team-player relationship? Does the Texans' brass think they can punish Watson into submission? That he'd come back and be a good soldier after a protracted battle?
Watson just watched James Harden shoot his way out of Houston, and I have to believe Watson and Harden were at least casually acquainted being superstar athletes in the same town. So Watson has seen up close how a star athlete used his leverage to get to his desired destination. And given the nature of the NFL these days where QBs are by far the most important players on their teams, it's not unexpected for Watson to explore if he has as much leverage in the NFL as an unhappy star player does in the NBA.
And like Harden, if the Texans refuse to deal Watson and he comes to camp unhappy...that can be its own fiasco that submarines the team on the field and their ability to swing a trade.
I think:Sitting out demanding a trade is so different than sitting out demanding a new contract. Teammates generally support (at least publicly) players who want to stay with a team but want to get paid. This would be very different.
Never been a pro football player but my sense is thatthe vast majority of his teammates will be one hundred percent on board with whatever he wants to do off field, whether it's seeking a trade or a new contract. Business is business and a star player doing whatever he can to help himself and his family is just something you have to live with, even if it hurts the team. Maybe some will be pissed but honestly, it is a shabbily run team and his teammates will recognize that as well.Sitting out demanding a trade is so different than sitting out demanding a new contract. Teammates generally support (at least publicly) players who want to stay with a team but want to get paid. This would be very different.
Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
The problem for the team is something simple though.... they have to hold the cap space open in case he reports. So the counter is... how many years can you not put a competitive team on the field before you feel the heat from your fans and your fellow owners.If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
I'm pretty sure the contract just rolls over if he never plays.If they are truly at an impasse, how many years does Watson have to hold out before he is unrestricted? Gronk sat out a year and still had to be traded by the Pats. This is where the NFL has so much leverage versus sports where they can at least play overseas (Japan for Baseball, Italy etc. for basketball, Europe for hockey) and still get a somewhat decent paycheck
It's a pretty big shit show right now, though. Almost (albeit very different) to the "Ricky Williams I'll play football in Canada if you want let me smoke weed" level. With the sacrificed cap space and loss of salary I don't see it lasting more than a year, (or even to Week One) but it's fun to think about. I can't see the contract rolling over indefinitely, there must be a limit or he could finally report when he is 80 for shits and gigglesHas any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
If I'm Caserio, I start with calls to Miami and NYJ (assuming that those two teams have indeed made initial inquiries as everyone is speculating), and say "OK, teams, it's open auction time. Opening bid is this year's 1/2 (or 1/3). I have a bar you must hurdle for additional assets, but you also must beat out the other. If I don't get what I need, I'll move down the first round; lots of teams want in on this, but you guys get first bids."This is why the Texans are playing the Watson thing the way they are. Needing to trade Watson is manageable if they can get a fair return; if they let him essentially choose his destination, that’s a different story. (It’s ok for Wilson because he doesn’t appear to want out of Seattle at all costs the way Watson wants out of Houston.)
If I’m in the Texans’ shoes, I’m working the phones hard and telling everyone I speak to that if I read about our conversation in the press, they’re dead to me.
Interesting question, I'm not sure.Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
Totally agree that the Jets and Dolphins are the two teams best positioned to land Watson. I don’t see how the Texans can do a deal without getting back a plausible franchise QB; the Jets (2nd pick) and Dolphins (Tua) both can offer that.If I'm Caserio, I start with calls to Miami and NYJ (assuming that those two teams have indeed made initial inquiries as everyone is speculating), and say "OK, teams, it's open auction time. Opening bid is this year's 1/2 (or 1/3). I have a bar you must hurdle for additional assets, but you also must beat out the other. If I don't get what I need, I'll move down the first round; lots of teams want in on this, but you guys get first bids."
Eric Lindros and Kawhi Leonard, in addition to the ones @dynomite mentioned.Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
But why are we stopping at 1/15th? If he holds out for the entire year he doesn't get 'credit' for the year and his contract rolls over so he's in the same exact boat again next year, right? So then he's looking at 2/15ths, etc etc.Losing 1/15th of your career isnt as terrible as it "used to be". Its 1 less year of wear and tear (behind a TERRIBLE line on a TERRIBLE Team). Maybe that makes his 50s a bit more enjoyable.
I mean I guess it means possible losing 1/15 of his career earnings. So instead of earning north of 450 Million he will only earn about 425 Million.
Agreed 100%. If they wait too long, teams will start to fall in love with the next big thing. God forbid they wait until after the draft, because by then, they (the Texans) lose the ability to excite their fans with the newest model.I just can't fathom how the Texans, despite all their bluster, wouldn't trade Watson before this year's draft. The odds of repairing that relationship are almost nil and you'd likely have an extremely messy holdout that would overshadow the team for as long as it lasts. And with JJ Watt and a new head coach, who exactly is leading the charge against that? Additionally, you would be setting back you rebuilding period at least a year.
What they need to do is announce he is available to the highest bidder and watch the insane packages roll in. And then you take the best possible package and move on. Losing Watson sucks but the Jets would gladly trade #2 and other picks/assets to get Watson so you'd be starting your rebuild with a talented QB prospect like Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. while also replenishing your depleted draft capital. You wait it out and you just delay the inevitable.
This will be a good test to see just how dysfunctional this organization is. They're reaching Jetsian levels now.
Sure, if hypothetically an NFL team was willing to just throw season after season away. I'm sure Caserio would definitely keep his job if he played hardball and made a strong run at worst team in league history 2 straight years. And Cal McNair would be thrilled with the constant talk about how he was a failson ruining his father's legacy, and the league would be thrilled with the consistent media coverage of the issue, and the inevitable offshoot into how NFL player contracts work.But why are we stopping at 1/15th? If he holds out for the entire year he doesn't get 'credit' for the year and his contract rolls over so he's in the same exact boat again next year, right? So then he's looking at 2/15ths, etc etc.
What is the rule with the cap and Watsons salary? Does he count against the cap if he sits out. I know he owes the Texans $5M bucks if he sits.Sure, if hypothetically an NFL team was willing to just throw season after season away. I'm sure Caserio would definitely keep his job if he played hardball and made a strong run at worst team in league history 2 straight years. And Cal McNair would be thrilled with the constant talk about how he was a failson ruining his father's legacy, and the league would be thrilled with the consistent media coverage of the issue, and the inevitable offshoot into how NFL player contracts work.
Look I get it and I'm not saying it's some great awesome option for Houston, but that possibility does exist and so Watson can't totally dismiss it as a possibility. Wasn't it his father that made some comment about not letting the inmates run the asylum?Sure, if hypothetically an NFL team was willing to just throw season after season away. I'm sure Caserio would definitely keep his job if he played hardball and made a strong run at worst team in league history 2 straight years. And Cal McNair would be thrilled with the constant talk about how he was a failson ruining his father's legacy, and the league would be thrilled with the consistent media coverage of the issue, and the inevitable offshoot into how NFL player contracts work.
He doesn't count, but they also have to leave the cap open in case he reports so they also can't use it.What is the rule with the cap and Watsons salary? Does he count against the cap if he sits out. I know he owes the Texans $5M bucks if he sits.
Watson just signed this deal. He really going to retire if Houston plays hardball?
There is still plenty of time for that to happen. I think they know they can't get the best value for Watson unless it includes one of the high picks in this years draft. The QB needy teams with high picks are going to rely on the draft for a QB solution, so those are the teams Houston wants to deal with, and obviously they know the timeline for when that needs to happen by is late April.I just can't fathom how the Texans, despite all their bluster, wouldn't trade Watson before this year's draft. The odds of repairing that relationship are almost nil and you'd likely have an extremely messy holdout that would overshadow the team for as long as it lasts. And with JJ Watt and a new head coach, who exactly is leading the charge against that? Additionally, you would be setting back you rebuilding period at least a year.
What they need to do is announce he is available to the highest bidder and watch the insane packages roll in. And then you take the best possible package and move on. Losing Watson sucks but the Jets would gladly trade #2 and other picks/assets to get Watson so you'd be starting your rebuild with a talented QB prospect like Wilson, Fields, Lance, etc. while also replenishing your depleted draft capital. You wait it out and you just delay the inevitable.
This will be a good test to see just how dysfunctional this organization is. They're reaching Jetsian levels now.
This is definitely a branch of the Curt Flood tree. He sat out a season to have a say in where he would play. (The rest, as they say, is history)Has any holdout, in any sport, ever gotten to that point? I expect this to get resolved, one way or the other, with Watson getting traded the most likely outcome.
Agreed 100%. If they wait too long, teams will start to fall in love with the next big thing. God forbid they wait until after the draft, because by then, they (the Texans) lose the ability to excite their fans with the newest model.
I believe that at the start of the draft is the only time the Texans could get picks in the next *4* drafts (instead of 3), so maybe they're building to have something in place on draft day.There is still plenty of time for that to happen. I think they know they can't get the best value for Watson unless it includes one of the high picks in this years draft. The QB needy teams with high picks are going to rely on the draft for a QB solution, so those are the teams Houston wants to deal with, and obviously they know the timeline for when that needs to happen by is late April.
I think the posturing right now is all about convincing Watson that he's screwed for this next season unless he accepts the best deal Houston gets offered. Letting interested teams know that they're willing to burn a year absent a great deal probably doesn't hurt either.
I kind of expect Watson to wind up on the Dolphins. Maybe the Jets, but the Dolphins are a much more competitive franchise right now and even with some holes could still be great with Watson right away. I think they might be more motivated to make something happen.
Edit: I know there is some debate over whether Miami is "QB needy", but if Watson becomes available, I think they should be.
I haven’t looked at the Dolphins’ roster closely. Maybe @sodenj5 or @Clears Cleaver has a perspective on whether the Dolphins could keep most of their core intact for the next 2-3 years while absorbing Watson’s salary. If you think Tua will be average or slightly above-average, you might rather have a team that’s loaded with Tua than a team with holes and Watson. But if you can add Watson and keep the band together, I agree that’s the way to go.I kind of expect Watson to wind up on the Dolphins. Maybe the Jets, but the Dolphins are a much more competitive franchise right now and even with some holes could still be great with Watson right away. I think they might be more motivated to make something happen.
That makes sense, but man, Watson is so good. Even with a weakened core, I think Watson could take them further even if they have to do some patching once they get him. It's always a challenge to maintain and keep depth even without spending a bunch of it on a big deal.I haven’t looked at the Dolphins’ roster closely. Maybe @sodenj5 or @Clears Cleaver has a perspective on whether the Dolphins could keep most of their core intact for the next 2-3 years while absorbing Watson’s salary. If you think Tua will be average or slightly above-average, you might rather have a team that’s loaded with Tua than a team with holes and Watson. But if you can add Watson and keep the band together, I agree that’s the way to go.
Yea so this has been discussed in the Miami thread a few times. Miami can fit Watson in, however they would be essentially punting all of their draft capital in the near term and lose almost all of their flexibility to improve the roster. You would be essentially dropping Watson onto last year’s roster and hoping for the best.I haven’t looked at the Dolphins’ roster closely. Maybe @sodenj5 or @Clears Cleaver has a perspective on whether the Dolphins could keep most of their core intact for the next 2-3 years while absorbing Watson’s salary. If you think Tua will be average or slightly above-average, you might rather have a team that’s loaded with Tua than a team with holes and Watson. But if you can add Watson and keep the band together, I agree that’s the way to go.
How steep do you think the acquisition cost would be? I think Tua + #3 gets it done, unless the Texans prefer this year’s #2 to Tua and the Jets are willing to deal.Yea so this has been discussed in the Miami thread a few times. Miami can fit Watson in, however they would be essentially punting all of their draft capital in the near term and lose almost all of their flexibility to improve the roster. You would be essentially dropping Watson onto last year’s roster and hoping for the best.
I’m of the belief that Miami would be better served long term keeping Tua and leveraging the third pick in the draft to maximize the team and the roster around him. Trade down, continue to accumulate assets, and continue stacking young, talented players around Tua.
While every draft pick won’t hit, in a few years, Miami could very well have a talented, deep nucleus of young players.
That could be a game of chicken on top of the game of chicken if the Texans don't leave most of the cap space open. It's not the best look for Watson if he pivots off his steadfast refusal to play and makes a mid-season return which necessitates cutting a bunch of his teammates/fellow union members who worked hard through the dog days of training camp.He doesn't count, but they also have to leave the cap open in case he reports so they also can't use it.
It's hard to find good sources for the minutiae, but my reading of things is they couldn't do that.That could be a game of chicken on top of the game of chicken if the Texans don't leave most of the cap space open. It's not the best look for Watson if he pivots off his steadfast refusal to play and makes a mid-season return which necessitates cutting a bunch of his teammates/fellow union members who worked hard through the dog days of training camp.