NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round game thread

What ONE team are you certain survives the Divisional Round?

  • Bengals

    Votes: 13 6.6%
  • Titans

    Votes: 20 10.2%
  • Chiefs

    Votes: 22 11.2%
  • Bills

    Votes: 5 2.5%
  • 49ers

    Votes: 10 5.1%
  • Packers

    Votes: 75 38.1%
  • Rams

    Votes: 5 2.5%
  • Buccaneers

    Votes: 47 23.9%

  • Total voters
    197
  • Poll closed .

Ralphwiggum

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 27, 2012
9,825
Needham, MA
That was an incredible weekend of football games. The NFL is an evil organization but man their product is so good, I can't quit it.

Also those were four epic nut punch losses.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Fell off the thread for the second game. Apologies for the likely redundancy. But that was the best divisional weekend I’ve ever seen.God, no wonder this is the most popular sport in America. At my core, I’ll always be a baseball guy. But this was impossible to top theater.
The 2003 and 2004 ALCSs might have something to say about that.
 
Worse coaching mistake: Blitzing the corner covering Kupp or kicking into the end zone with 13 seconds left? Tough choice…
Kicking into the end zone barely qualifies as a blunder. I mean, I can easily envision a scenario where KC returns a squib kick to near the 40 with enough time for one play down the field like they one they executed. (That "mistake" is overblown; the mistakes were found in Buffalo's defense on the two plays after the kickoff.)
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
If they play a full period under 4th quarter rules, then we could see teams make multiple stops! Or not!
But that's kind of the point. The NFL has broadcast windows and wants the games to end as soon as possible when it gets to OT. If you just want more football maybe the games could be 6 periods instead of 4 quarters!

Right now teams that win the flip are winning 52.7% of the time (according to my research - which consists of someone saying this above). That's about as good as it's going to get.
 

BigJimEd

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
4,432
Kicking into the end zone was very much a blunder. Teams can routinely kick it inside the 5 now. Take your chances on kick coverage with an extra 20 yards vs Mahomes, Hill, etc.... But yes, the defensive calls by the Bills might have been the biggest blunder of the weekend.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,044
I keep hearing it framed as squib vs end zone. To me the obvious move is kick it to ~5 yd line, aiming for maximum airtime. Chiefs have to run it back (ie can’t take a knee), and you’re guaranteed at least 4-5 seconds run off. With 13 seconds you have 2 plays to get in FG range. With 8-9 seconds you only have one. It’s such a no brainer
 

bigq

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
11,084
Nah the Bills and their HC are arrogant.
They won't learn anything from this loss and season that will make them go 14-3 or whatever. They will act like they have already won something and we should bow down to them.

You saw how McDermott reacted to underperforming this season, by throwing the rest of his staff under the bus. If not for a very easy end of the schedule they probably don't even make the playoffs. Hell have they probably miss the playoffs this year if they had to play the Cowboys and not the WFT.

I hate the Chiefs, but I am so happy the Bills lost.

Now let's see Cincy and SF take us back to 1982.
That's what I am hoping for as well but I am partial to 1988.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
61,996
New York City
I keep hearing it framed as squib vs end zone. To me the obvious move is kick it to ~5 yd line, aiming for maximum airtime. Chiefs have to run it back (ie can’t take a knee), and you’re guaranteed at least 4-5 seconds run off. With 13 seconds you have 2 plays to get in FG range. With 8-9 seconds you only have one. It’s such a no brainer
Airtime doesn't matter, clock doesn't start until the ball is touched. But, yes, they should have attempted to kick off inside the 10.
 

The Raccoon

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 24, 2018
935
Germany
I seen some number-crunchers suggest that if the first team started at its own 15, winning probabilities would be roughly equal for both teams. That seems like the easiest solution that also takes out the kickoff, which is the most harmful type of game situation for player safety.
That's why I want some sort of auction for the right to get the ball first in OT (with the same rules after that):
Do both teams yesterday want the ball, if they have to start at the 15? Inside their own 10? Even at their own one yard line, where one minor mistake will immediatly lose you the game?
Let's find out and get the auction started!

And if Team A gets the ball at their 5 yard line, because they had the the lowest bid and end up winning with a TD, Team B better not complain, because they could have gone with a 4yd bid and gotten the ball for themselves.
You can still use a coin toss if both teams are willing to start at their 1yd line (which I assume won't happen too often), but otherwise both teams had their chance.
 

MuppetAsteriskTalk

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 19, 2015
5,398
One of my first thoughts this morning after awakening was "13 fucking seconds". I'm a Pats fan living in New England. I can only imagine the hell that Bills fans are dealing with this morning.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
24,375
Of course, for us. But I had no real dog in the fight for any of these games, except for rooting against Rodgers. And I was completely riveted to all of them. Would never be that way for any neutral baseball playoffs.
I totally agree with that. 100%.
 

wilked

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 17, 2005
4,044
Airtime doesn't matter, clock doesn't start until the ball is touched. But, yes, they should have attempted to kick off inside the 10.
I get airtime doesn’t matter for clock, but it matters for coverage (what I was intending)
 

loshjott

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2004
14,943
Silver Spring, MD
Kicking into the end zone barely qualifies as a blunder. I mean, I can easily envision a scenario where KC returns a squib kick to near the 40 with enough time for one play down the field like they one they executed. (That "mistake" is overblown; the mistakes were found in Buffalo's defense on the two plays after the kickoff.)
Romo made a good point real time that the Bills were overplaying the sidelines when the Chiefs still had all 3 TOs thus had no reason to avoid the middle of the field.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
53,840
Kicking into the end zone barely qualifies as a blunder. I mean, I can easily envision a scenario where KC returns a squib kick to near the 40 with enough time for one play down the field like they one they executed. (That "mistake" is overblown; the mistakes were found in Buffalo's defense on the two plays after the kickoff.)
There's a medium between a squib and a touchback. Most kickers can execute it.
 

candylandriots

unkempt
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Mar 30, 2004
12,327
Berlin
That's why I want some sort of auction for the right to get the ball first in OT (with the same rules after that):
Do both teams yesterday want the ball, if they have to start at the 15? Inside their own 10? Even at their own one yard line, where one minor mistake will immediatly lose you the game?
Let's find out and get the auction started!

And if Team A gets the ball at their 5 yard line, because they had the the lowest bid and end up winning with a TD, Team B better not complain, because they could have gone with a 4yd bid and gotten the ball for themselves.
You can still use a coin toss if both teams are willing to start at their 1yd line (which I assume won't happen too often), but otherwise both teams had their chance.
I can’t see this ever happening, but I like this idea a lot.
 

Remagellan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
The 2003 and 2004 ALCSs might have something to say about that.
We weren't paying as close attention to them back then, but the 2003 NLCS (Cubs collapse after Bartman game) and 2004 NLCS (Edmonds homer in the 12th sends the series to Game 7) were pretty great, too.

The best baseball playoffs may have been in 1972--all series went to the limit, and of the 17 games, 11 of them were decided by one run, including 6 out of the 7 World Series games, and all the series clinchers (Game 5 of the ALCS and NLCS, and Game 7 of the WS).
 
Last edited:

SamCassellsStones

New Member
Feb 8, 2017
130
One of my first thoughts this morning after awakening was "13 fucking seconds". I'm a Pats fan living in New England. I can only imagine the hell that Bills fans are dealing with this morning.
Seriously. And it doesn’t help that your city is a frozen, post-industrial hell-scape. It’s a cruel, cruel game sometimes.
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
I think 31 NFL coaches do that. Maybe 32 depending on how you want to interpret McDermott's "execution" quote.
Let's also be really clear that when Hill or one of KC's other elite sprinters took one all the way back, the exact same media people would be absolutely killing McDermott for letting them return a kick, since obviously they would have had no chance to score with 13 seconds from the 25.

The bottom line is, even with 13 seconds left, someone on your team has to execute for 13 seconds to seal the win.
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,529
The touchback was a mistake but the defense is way more at fault....you just cannot give up chunk plays like that. Let them get 10-15 yards but you can't allow 19 and 25 on back to back plays. That's the ONLY way they would have a realistic chance at a FG. You double KElce and double Hill and stil have two deep to tackle any underneath stuff to the other WRs.

I agree with Romo that dropping 8 there is a lot better....and those safeties were too deep. That was more of a defense suited for defending a TD than a FG attempt.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
20,404
Off, man, I can't imagine being a Buffalo fan this morning. Absolutely gutted.
That team just missed making it to the SB last year and has the right to feel that it was 0:13 away from being the favorite to win the SB headed into the AFC Championship this season. One of the big stories for next year will be how they respond.
 

jsinger121

@jsinger121
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
17,676
One of the most overlooked things is how damaging the loss of Tre’Davious White was in a game like this. Hill/Kelce were kept in check in the first meeting while this time they ran wild.
 
There's a medium between a squib and a touchback. Most kickers can execute it.
Yes, that's probably the optimal option. But my point about the kickoff not being a blunder is that you'd only ever view it as one if your defense totally screws up - it's a results-based judgement. No coach gets blamed for kicking deep if the defense does it's job. And it's also a case of focusing on the minor tactical point your brain can easily wrap itself around and ignoring the more complicated and much more important defensive scheme that non-coaches and non-experts like us can't easily process.
The touchback was a mistake but the defense is way more at fault....you just cannot give up chunk plays like that. Let them get 10-15 yards but you can't allow 19 and 25 on back to back plays. That's the ONLY way they would have a realistic chance at a FG. You double KElce and double Hill and stil have two deep to tackle any underneath stuff to the other WRs.

I agree with Romo that dropping 8 there is a lot better....and those safeties were too deep. That was more of a defense suited for defending a TD than a FG attempt.
Or, this.
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,715
We weren't paying as close attention to them back then, but the 2003 NLCS (Cubs collapse after Bartman game) and 2004 NLCS (Edmonds homer in the 12th sends the series to Game 7) were pretty great, too.

The best baseball playoffs may have been in 1972--all series went to the limit, and of the 17 games, 11 of them were decided by one run, including 6 out of the 7 World Series games, and all the series clinchers (Game 5 of the ALCS and NLCS, and Game 7 of the WS).
Apologies to Sox fans, but I will vote for 1986, which included the best game of my lifetime in game 6 of the NLCS, but also all of the final three series were batshit insane memorable. Also I went to game 5 of the NLCS, by far the best game I have ever attended in person (Gooden vs. Ryan, they pitched 19 innings between them) only to be almost immediately forgotten by the game 6 classic the next day in Houston.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
36,047
306, row 14
The squib basically reduces KC's chance to a hail mary/lateral play. They didn't have to kick it deep and keep it in play, just a dribbler up the middle that forces KC to recover and kill some time. Even if they give up 10-15 yards in field position compared to a touchback they essentially remove the 2-plays and in field goal rante possibility.
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,768
Hartford, CT
Yes, that's probably the optimal option. But my point about the kickoff not being a blunder is that you'd only ever view it as one if your defense totally screws up - it's a results-based judgement. No coach gets blamed for kicking deep if the defense does it's job. And it's also a case of focusing on the minor tactical point your brain can easily wrap itself around and ignoring the more complicated and much more important defensive scheme that non-coaches and non-experts like us can't easily process.

Or, this.
How is it a results based judgment when many were saying a kickoff short of the goal line was the right play beforehand?

Let’s say, in a very favorable scenario, the kickoff got returned to the 45 of KC. Heck, the 50. KC may need a record breaking FG or they’re playing for a Hail Mary/lateral. At best, say if they had 6-8 seconds or so, they can run a quick hitter pass where the player needs to go down more or less immediately.

The risk of Byron Pringle ripping one to well into BUF territory - or even scoring - is way lower than the risk of what actually happened.
 
Last edited:

Reggie's Racquet

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2009
7,235
Florida/Montana
Peter King this morning.

"McDermott will regret one coaching decision from this game. Buffalo just had the greatest drive of the day to go up 36-33 with 14 seconds left, and it looked like the Bills would have their great victory of the century. But Buffalo then kicked the ball into the end zone, allowing no time to run off the clock and allowing Kansas City to take over at its 25. They were 40 yards away from trying a field goal to tie it. Moments after it happened, one NFL coach texted me and said, “No! The Bills should have made the Chiefs return the ball and start the drive with only eight or nine seconds left. That way, they’d have had one play, not two, to get into field-goal position.” Correct. Absolutely correct."
 

Rudy's Curve

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 4, 2006
2,333
The squib basically reduces KC's chance to a hail mary/lateral play. They didn't have to kick it deep and keep it in play, just a dribbler up the middle that forces KC to recover and kill some time. Even if they give up 10-15 yards in field position compared to a touchback they essentially remove the 2-plays and in field goal rante possibility.
The guy who picks up the ball can just take a knee/fall down and not have any significant time come off the clock (maybe a second), and you're giving up yards of field position unless it's done perfectly. The ideal scenario is obviously to have something that lands at the 5-10, but that was not done for whatever reason.
 

loshjott

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2004
14,943
Silver Spring, MD
The guy who picks up the ball can just take a knee/fall down and not have any significant time come off the clock (maybe a second), and you're giving up yards of field position unless it's done perfectly. The ideal scenario is obviously to have something that lands at the 5-10, but that was not done for whatever reason.
Yeah, this is it. A regular kick coming down inside the 10 can be fair caught with no time off the clock but those extra 15-20 yds could've been the difference. Basically Buff did not trust their kicker to execute either a good squib or a short kick and they paid for it.

I can't wait for Bass to get liquored up in the offseason and complain about it to the media.
 

Remagellan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apologies to Sox fans, but I will vote for 1986, which included the best game of my lifetime in game 6 of the NLCS, but also all of the final three series were batshit insane memorable. Also I went to game 5 of the NLCS, by far the best game I have ever attended in person (Gooden vs. Ryan, they pitched 19 innings between them) only to be almost immediately forgotten by the game 6 classic the next day in Houston.
All series didn't go the limit, but the looming presence of Mike Scott in Game 7 made NLCS Game 6 seem like a Game 7. My younger brother has you beat though. He was at Game 6 of the WS, sitting near the Mets dugout thanks to the fact that he was dating the daughter of a guy who had season tickets there, and he's a Mets fan.

To put this back on thread, the Bills should have made every effort to kick the ball in play, because while the smart move for any Chiefs player would have been for fall on it and leave as much time as possible for Mahomes to operate, the likelihood is pretty great that anyone fielding it might have panicked and tried some sort of return which would have peeled precious seconds off the clock. The Bills took that out of their hands when they kicked it into the end zone.
 

Ferm Sheller

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 5, 2007
20,404
Yeah, this is it. A regular kick coming down inside the 10 can be fair caught with no time off the clock but those extra 15-20 yds could've been the difference. Basically Buff did not trust their kicker to execute either a good squib or a short kick and they paid for it.

I can't wait for Bass to get liquored up in the offseason and complain about it to the media.
Or they trusted their defense more not to allow the Chiefs to go 40 yards in 13 seconds than they did their special teams to prevent a big return (possibly even a game-winning TD return).
 

Mystic Merlin

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 21, 2007
46,768
Hartford, CT
All series didn't go the limit, but the looming presence of Mike Scott in Game 7 made NLCS Game 6 seem like a Game 7. My younger brother has you beat though. He was at Game 6 of the WS, sitting near the Mets dugout thanks to the fact that he was dating the daughter of a guy who had season tickets there, and he's a Mets fan.

To put this back on thread, the Bills should have made every effort to kick the ball in play, because while the smart move for any Chiefs player would have been for fall on it and leave as much time as possible for Mahomes to operate, the likelihood is pretty great that anyone fielding it might have panicked and tried some sort of return which would have peeled precious seconds off the clock. The Bills took that out of their hands when they kicked it into the end zone.
And if a player kneels on the ball or fair catches it at the 10, great!

All this talk about how Buffalo misplayed the end of the game defensively, especially on the Kelce catch, is right on, but it doesn’t in any way justify their kickoff strategy and ignores that it very likely exacerbated the costs of their fuckups on the ensuing play(s).
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
Or they trusted their defense more not to allow the Chiefs to go 40 yards in 13 seconds than they did their special teams to prevent a big return (possibly even a TD return).
Right. We're talking about two choices that both should have given Buffalo a 98% or 99% chance of winning the game. It's about the (total lack of) execution, not the strategy.
 

BroodsSexton

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 4, 2006
12,630
guam
Pretty much whatever allows us to criticize Buffalo’s coaching team AND the execution of their defense is where I’m at. We get both!
 

Oil Can Dan

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2003
8,014
0-3 to 4-3
I didn't support kicking into the end zone in real time. I'd much rather the ball is in Pringle's or some other persons hands than Mahomes, Kelce's or Hill's.

The more confounding thing to me is how there was no press on Kelce on the plays afterwards. I mean I'd have had a guy on him and Hill at the line and I'd have had them literally tackle them right then and there. Oh no, a five yard holding penalty? Happy to trade that for four seconds two or three times. Game over.

How come this isn't what these lifelong NFL coaches are doing?
 

Captaincoop

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
13,487
Santa Monica, CA
I didn't support kicking into the end zone in real time. I'd much rather the ball is in Pringle's or some other persons hands than Mahomes, Kelce's or Hill's.

The more confounding thing to me is how there was no press on Kelce on the plays afterwards. I mean I'd have had a guy on him and Hill at the line and I'd have had them literally tackle them right then and there. Oh no, a five yard holding penalty? Happy to trade that for four seconds two or three times. Game over.

How come this isn't what these lifelong NFL coaches are doing?
That seems like the right thing on the first defensive play - like fouling the guy with the ball in basketball when you're up 3 late.

I believe you'd get a penalty if you did it multiple times, but in last night's case, one play and eliminating 3-4 seconds would have been enough.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
I didn't support kicking into the end zone in real time. I'd much rather the ball is in Pringle's or some other persons hands than Mahomes, Kelce's or Hill's.

The more confounding thing to me is how there was no press on Kelce on the plays afterwards. I mean I'd have had a guy on him and Hill at the line and I'd have had them literally tackle them right then and there. Oh no, a five yard holding penalty? Happy to trade that for four seconds two or three times. Game over.

How come this isn't what these lifelong NFL coaches are doing?
It’s been discussed, they could call a 15 yard penalty with no clock run off.