NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round game thread

[tims4wins]

This used to be considered pretty good. Brady’s string of statistically implausible success has broken peoples brains.

This is true, but it's also a result of the 2015 Denver defense absolutely dragging his corpse to a title. 14-13 should probably have been 12-14 with a single title.

But either way, the knock is that both Rodgers and Peyton were generationally great QBs who didn't live up to their regular season prowess in the playoffs. When you get home games and byes year after year you should win more. I don't think Brady's success has anything to do with how we view Rodgers and Peyton, honestly. Winning 7 titles is obviously ridiculous. But you'd expect more than 3 combined titles from these guys.

 

[johnmd20]

Man, the glee everyone has because Rodgers lost is phenomenal. I am drinking it up.

What a bum. And, yes, a terrible playoff performer. He's supposed to be amazing. One of the best of all time. QBs like that don't just lose at home almost every year.

Just as an example. Patrick Mahomes is 6-2 in the playoffs. And both of those losses are to Tom Brady.

 

[johnmd20]

Jimmy G is 4-1 in the playoffs. (like Rodgers, Jimmy played in a blowout win in mop up duty(Indy game with the balls) that I am not counting, as he's technically 5-1 in playoff games he's played in)

Now that is incredible.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Man, the glee everyone has because Rodgers lost is phenomenal. I am drinking it up.

What a bum. And, yes, a terrible playoff performer. He's supposed to be amazing. One of the best of all time. QBs like that don't just lose at home almost every year.

Just as an example. Patrick Mahomes is 6-2 in the playoffs. And both of those losses are to Tom Brady.

Really is remarkable when you think about his public perception 11-12 years ago and now. After the SB win, he was the new golden child and was looking at multiple titles. In 2022, he’s now branded as a playoff choker with huge off the field negatives for many people. Not sure how valuable his “brand” is now. Just a tremendous fall from grace.

 

[rodderick]

Does anyone have the cap space to do both Rodgers and sign Adams to come with him?

My feeling is Davante won't leave a single dollar on the table to play with Rodgers.

 

[JokersWildJIMED]

Does anyone have the cap space to do both Rodgers and sign Adams to come with him?

It won’t be Rodgers and Adams, it will be Rodgers and Cobb

 

[Oil Can Dan]

The Packers hold all the cards here, right? He’s under contract so they'll have something to say about what happens. Maybe they're fine with pulling a Watson and letting his ass sit out.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

The Packers hold all the cards here, right? He’s under contract so they'll have something to say about what happens. Maybe they're fine with pulling a Watson and letting his ass sit out.

I’m not sure they can afford to hold onto him as easily as Houston has with Watson.

His cap hit is almost 46.5M, and they’re like 40M over the cap without accounting for the expiring deals of Adams, Lazard, and Tonyan. They can cut/restructure some other deals, like Z’Darius Smith’s, but there’s a loooot of work to do there to get to a place where they can re-sign Adams.

Anyways, if his contract is typical they can convert his 26M salary down to the vet min (like 1M) to a signing bonus, spreading the 25M in cap dollars over his 22 cap figure and his 23 cap figure. This gets them 12.5M in cap space for 22. Problem is, it makes the 23 cap hit - which is a void year after the restructure they did in the summer - 37.5M. I don’t think it’s tenable for them to carry that kind of dead cap hit for a guy who can just walk before ‘23.

Basically, Rodgers’ contract and the GB cap situation make holding him under duress trickier than it is with Watson.

 

[BaseballJones]

Really is remarkable when you think about his public perception 11-12 years ago and now. After the SB win, he was the new golden child and was looking at multiple titles. In 2022, he’s now branded as a playoff choker with huge off the field negatives for many people. Not sure how valuable his “brand” is now. Just a tremendous fall from grace.

I’m pretty sure the general public still thinks of him as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. So his “fall” hasn’t been too far.

 

[Euclis20]

I’m pretty sure the general public still thinks of him as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. So his “fall” hasn’t been too far.

Was there much noise made when he was left off the NFL 100 all-time team? 10 QBs, no Rodgers. Not just that, I'm looking around at some articles of players who were snubbed and none seem to mention Rodgers (they all mention Brees and Young). Granted he'll soon have two MVPs since that list came out so who knows.

 

[BaseballJones]

So let's make a list of most overrated great QBs. Rodgers has to be near the top of the list, right? Obviously an all time great. His abilities and statistical performance and awards clearly put him in the elite group. But despite all that, he really hasn't won nearly as much as he "should" have (my caveat earlier that winning in the playoffs is hard, notwithstanding).

Who else would be on that list?

 

[Kliq]

I’m pretty sure the general public still thinks of him as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. So his “fall” hasn’t been too far.

Yeah, this is the first time where I feel like a playoff loss really led to a lot of heat on Rodgers for underperforming. Part of that is obviously he had a lousy game, and part of it is that he has done things to become extremely unpopular this season. But over the years Rodgers has really skated on his playoff losses; the heat always fell on his defense, or Mike McCarthy doing something stupid, or Matt Ruhle electing to kick a field goal, or the refs screwing him, etc.

Somehow during that time frame, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Jimmy G, Nick Foles, Eli Manning and others have made it into the SB while Rodgers went home.

 

[tims4wins]

So let's make a list of most overrated great QBs. Rodgers has to be near the top of the list, right? Obviously an all time great. His abilities and statistical performance and awards clearly put him in the elite group. But despite all that, he really hasn't won nearly as much as he "should" have (my caveat earlier that winning in the playoffs is hard, notwithstanding).

Who else would be on that list?

Peyton Manning.

 

[snowmanny]

Peyton Manning.

See, Manning is number two on my list of all-time QBs. I've seen all these guys and I don't even think it is close. And I think this is where last night was bad for Rodgers. His career isn't over but there is no particular reason to put him over Peyton since Peyton has more of everything. And Peyton beat Brady in three AFCCGs; Rodgers got Brady at home last year and lost and might have had another shot this year but lost, and he had a couple other times he made it to the NFCCG and would have faced Brady but lost.

But if AR had won it all this year, or at least made it to the Super Bowl, there would have been a lot of chatter.

So Rodgers to me and I think most people is in some tier under Manning and probably Montana; he's there with with Brees and Marino and Unitas I guess (OK didn't see him) and maybe Roethlisberger even (who was one drive away from denting Rodgers his only title)and maybe a couple others. And as soon as Mahomes wins another Super Bowl, if he does, all the focus will be on him and not Aaron as possible #2 all-time. This year was a big fail by Green Bay legacy wise.

 

[tims4wins]

See, Manning is number two on my list of all-time QBs. I've seen all these guys and I don't even think it is close. And I think this is where last night was bad for Rodgers. His career isn't over but there is no particular reason to put him over Peyton since Peyton has more of everything. And Peyton beat Brady in three AFCCGs; Rodgers got Brady at home last year and lost and might have had another shot this year but lost, and he had a couple other times he made it to the NFCCG and would have faced Brady but lost.

But if AR had won it all this year, or at least made it to the Super Bowl, there would have been a lot of chatter.

So Rodgers to me and I think most people is in some tier under Manning and probably Montana; he's there with with Brees and Marino and Unitas I guess (OK didn't see him) and maybe Roethlisberger even (who was one drive away from denting Rodgers his only title)and maybe a couple others. And as soon as Mahomes wins another Super Bowl, if he does, all the focus will be on him and not Aaron as possible #2 all-time. This year was a big fail by Green Bay legacy wise.

I'm with you, Peyton went to 4 Super Bowls and won 2, and he was so good in the regular season (and accumulated so many stats) that I think he has to elevate over Montana. And unless Rodgers goes somewhere else next year and wins a title or two, his legacy is firmly cemented below Manning's. And you are correct that if Mahomes wins another title then that chatter will begin to increase; he'll have to put up another half dozen or so great regular seasons, but it would probably get him past Rodgers and close to Peyton level. Of course, right now Mahomes is closer to Russell Wilson circa 2015; it's his 4th year as a starter, he has won 1 title, lost a second Super Bowl, and is now trying to get back. We'll see where the Chiefs go over the next few years. Almost feels like Mahomes really needs to win this year given how his contract is structured, the strength of their division, the presence of Buffalo and Cincy, etc.

 

[Leather]

Living in northeast Wisconsin may seem to have it's advantages. The summers are great. The cost of living is low. It's socially permissible to be an alcoholic (seriously though, I know about a dozen people that have four plus DUIs) as well as eat cheese and bratwurst in five pound increments.

I will say though, that the Packer fanbase is by far the most goobery in the NFL. It usually gets a pass because of the homespun folksy-ness and Midwestern idioms like "a couple, two, tree (that's supposed to an attempt at saying three), yeah?" (Translated to "I want two of those") or ending any question posed with the dreaded "err, no?".

But living amongst Packer fans is insufferable. I've just been here too long I think, but it's tough stomach. Add in Rodgers being a cockstain, I want the 9ers to win on a last second field goal setup by Aaron throwing a pick to Adams who broke off his route too early.

Congrats on the loss! Northern WI is pretty (some
nice lakes!) but, yeah. Whenever I am outside of the more moneyed, touristy, areas (Bayfield, Door County probably) I feel like I have a “Libtard” sign on my back because I don’t have a beard, don’t wear camo or carhardt, and I don’t drive a pickup. And if anything, Rodgers’ Rogan-esque bullshit endears him to most of those folks.

My favorite “is this real or a setup for a horror movie?” encounters are the camo-clad, gun packing, beard-dad with the rat-tailed kids who smilelessly trudge out to the pickup loaded with dogs in tiny cages and buckets of marshmallows setting out for a bear hunting trip. Just charming.

 

[BaseballJones]

Yes I think Mahomes is in an interesting spot. His contract goes through the roof in a couple of years, timed just as Kelce and Hill age themselves out of all-world status. And the position really can’t be played better than Mahomes played it in 2018-19, so it’s not like he’s going to get better than he was in those years.

This is a huge year for him. Great opportunity and those don’t come around all the time, even for a guy like him.

 

[snowmanny]

I think the media is so invested in so-and-so being not only the next great thing but also maybe The Greatest Thing Ever that whoever is hot right now tends to get overrated in the moment.

Edit- I am also with both of you on Mahomes. I think the media would love to pump him up, but if he doesn't win this year it's going to get harder and harder for the Chiefs.

 

[luckiestman]

I’m not putting Manning or Rodgers over Montana. Seems like recency bias.

 

[lars10]

So let's make a list of most overrated great QBs. Rodgers has to be near the top of the list, right? Obviously an all time great. His abilities and statistical performance and awards clearly put him in the elite group. But despite all that, he really hasn't won nearly as much as he "should" have (my caveat earlier that winning in the playoffs is hard, notwithstanding).

Who else would be on that list?

Especially given the number of great receivers Rodgers has had.. Nelson, Cobb, Adams, etc.. I don’t think there’s been a single year he hasn’t had a true elite #1 receiver.

 

[tims4wins]

I’m not putting Manning or Rodgers over Montana. Seems like recency bias.

Manning's longevity compared to Montana is the easy deciding factor for me. He started 100 more games, 61.5% more starts than Montana. That's a ton.

Manning led the league in yardage 3x; Montana 0.
Manning led the league in TDs 4x; Montana 2x.
Manning led the league in passer rating 3x; Montana 2x.
Montana took more sacks for more yards despite starting 100 fewer games.

 

[bankshot1]

In a year when league-wide mediocrity and parity was evident, Rodgers couldn't beat Brady's back-up at home.

 

[Seels]

There's just no coherent argument for Rodgers in the top 3. I roll my eyes at the thought. He's come up short consistently in the playoffs.

Rodgers fans can have fun arguing where he ranks in relation to the tier that involves Young Favre and Brees. But it's laughable when the conversation moves to involve Montana or Manning, and he damn sure hasn't had half the career Brady has.

 

[lars10]

I’m not putting Manning or Rodgers over Montana. Seems like recency bias.

The one thing against Montana was how absolutely loaded his teams were before the salary cap era that the other two had to deal with.

 

[Remagellan]

The one thing against Montana was how absolutely loaded his teams were before the salary cap era that the other two had to deal with.

Montana won two Super Bowls without Rice and Taylor. He won one before Roger Craig joined the team. His success early on was equivalent to Brady's--done with a group of good to very good receivers and backs, but not HoF type guys like he had later on in his career.

He did play with some awesome defenders all throughout his career.

I should add that I don't care who's in the second spot when question comes up as long as everyone acknowledges the obvious truth of who is in the number one spot. PFR has a Hall of Fame monitor, and until the end of this past season, Brady had trailed Peyton, which annoyed the crap out of me. But he passed him now in whatever strange math they use, and all is right with the world.

 

[BlackJack]

lol

So you’re saying the shot was there if he wanted it?

 

[snowmanny]

The other thing about Montana was that he had times that he didn't look that great. For example. had that playoff stretch where the team scored only 3 points vs the NYG in both the 1985 and 1986 playoffs (admittedly a hell of a defense) , then he got pulled from the game for playing poorly against Minnesota in the playoffs of the 1987 season. His 1989 season/playoff run was epic, maybe/probably the best playoff run ever, but even then when Young played that season the team did fine.

edit- not denying his greatness at all, sort of trying to explain why I see Manning differently. I don't think it is recency bias. At the time I generally thought Marino looked better than Montana and if anything I appreciate Montana more now than I did then. Also, I give him credit for what he did ni KC, which was pretty damn impressive.

edit2 quoted wrong post and deleted that sorry

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

View: https://twitter.com/dailytrix/status/1485108784896909314?s=21

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

The other thing about Montana was that he had times that he didn't look that great. For example. had that playoff stretch where the team scored only 3 points vs the NYG in both the 1985 and 1986 playoffs (admittedly a hell of a defense) , then he got pulled from the game for playing poorly against Minnesota in the playoffs of the 1987 season. His 1989 season/playoff run was epic, maybe/probably the best playoff run ever, but even then when Young played that season the team did fine.

edit- not denying his greatness at all, sort of trying to explain why I see Manning differently. I don't think it is recency bias. At the time I generally thought Marino looked better than Montana and if anything I appreciate Montana more now than I did then. Also, I give him credit for what he did ni KC, which was pretty damn impressive.

edit2 quoted wrong post and deleted that sorry

The other issue is that Steve Young was arguably as great as Montana. I think he’s top 5 of all-time. Brady, Montana, Young, Peyton & Staubach/Marino/Unitas for me.
Top 4 for me is firm

 

[E5 Yaz]

Brady has gone 5-0 as a starter for the Bucs in the playoffs.

In those games, Tampa Bay has scored the following amount of points ... 31-30-31-31-31

 

[The Napkin]

So you’re saying the shot was there if he wanted it?

ironically enough it looks like he had his choice of 2 shots

 

[E5 Yaz]

ironically enough it looks like he had his choice of 2 shots

Would have given a boost to the Packers chances of winning

 

[tims4wins]

lol

View: https://twitter.com/sportssturm/status/1485256156243279873?s=21

He also had a better option on the other deep route. Yet he chose to throw into double coverage.

 

[luckiestman]

The other issue is that Steve Young was arguably as great as Montana. I think he’s top 5 of all-time. Brady, Montana, Young, Peyton & Staubach/Marino/Unitas for me.
Top 4 for me is firm

I really like Steve Young. I'll take him over Manning too

 

[Marciano490]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/super-bowl-contending-buffalo-bills-150000611.html

Somewhat interesting article on the Bills conditioning methods. The Bills were the least injured team this season and have noted avoiding squats during the season is a reason why.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I’m pretty sure the general public still thinks of him as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time. So his “fall” hasn’t been too far.

Completely disagree. This isn’t about ability, it’s about his marketability.

 

[BaseballJones]

Completely disagree. This isn’t about ability, it’s about his marketability.

I don’t understand “marketability”. Is he going to lose sponsorship opportunities? He’s one of the top faces in the world of football. Still. He’d be the most sought after free agent in the NFL if he was a FA after this season.

All he’s lost is (a) a chance at this year’s Super Bowl, and (b) some standing among some fans in the GOAT conversation.

 

[hitatater]

Peyton Manning.

So close, but Eli is easily the most overrated Manning.

Won 2 SB on the strength of 2-3 great passes. And an uncalled in-the-grasp. A "Great" QB only because his team beat a truly great QB twice. Mediocre in every other game in his life...

 

[E5 Yaz]

Completely disagree. This isn’t about ability, it’s about his marketability.

 

[bsj]

I had a 4 team parlay this weekend. Already 0-2

 

[luckiestman]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/super-bowl-contending-buffalo-bills-150000611.html

Somewhat interesting article on the Bills conditioning methods. The Bills were the least injured team this season and have noted avoiding squats during the season is a reason why.

Headline sounds interesting until you get to:

"instead, he (Rousseau) does power cleans, deadlifts, hang cleans, and bench press as their in-season strength training routine."

Now it just seems like a fact, fewest injuries, in search of a narrative.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I don’t understand “marketability”. Is he going to lose sponsorship opportunities? He’s one of the top faces in the world of football. Still. He’d be the most sought after free agent in the NFL if he was a FA after this season.

All he’s lost is (a) a chance at this year’s Super Bowl, and (b) some standing among some fans in the GOAT conversation.

You’re completely overlooking the off the field stuff, which has turned him off to a sizable portion of the NFL fan base. Look at all the dunking on him this morning by writers, fans on Twitter, etc. That never used to happen nearly as intensely as it is now.

 

[Euclis20]

Manning's longevity compared to Montana is the easy deciding factor for me. He started 100 more games, 61.5% more starts than Montana. That's a ton.

Manning led the league in yardage 3x; Montana 0.
Manning led the league in TDs 4x; Montana 2x.
Manning led the league in passer rating 3x; Montana 2x.
Montana took more sacks for more yards despite starting 100 fewer games.

Honestly, I'd put Montana in the overrated category (most people seem to put him 2nd or 3rd best QB ever). I know that the stats are dominated by QBs from the current era, but he's 20th in completed passes, 21st in yards and 19th in TDs (behind guys from his era and earlier, like Marino, Tarkenton, Elway, Moon, Unitas, Testaverde). He's tied for 13th in QB wins (Russell Wilson will pass him in the next two years) and his replacement was just as impressive statistically (both Young and Montana have 3 All-Pros and 2 MVPs, Montana had slightly better counting stats and Young had slightly better rate stats). He was helped by playing with the best receiver in history, by a mile. Only Brady can beat his 4 super bowls (and he was good to great in all of them), but that's it. Considering his relatively short career and supporting cast, I think he's a lot closer to guys like Rodgers than Manning, but that appears to just be me.

 

[rodderick]

No Perriman, no Wirfs, no Grayson. Good chance John Brown takes meaningful snaps for the Bucs. If I'm the Rams I'm putting Ramsey on Evans and selling out to stop Gronk. Beat me with Tyler Johnson, Scottie Miller and Cam Bate.

 

[johnmd20]

So close, but Eli is easily the most overrated Manning.

Won 2 SB on the strength of 2-3 great passes. And an uncalled in-the-grasp. A "Great" QB only because his team beat a truly great QB twice. Mediocre in every other game in his life...

Eli is most certainly properly rated. Everyone knows he was good enough, in general. Yet not exceptional. But you have to give him credit for truly shining at the two biggest moments in his career. Most QBs blow it in that position.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I think they’re gonna run the ball, or at least try to, more than is typical/preferred.

Dropping Brady back 40 times by design against that front would be stupid, so I get it.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Honestly, I'd put Montana in the overrated category (most people seem to put him 2nd or 3rd best QB ever). I know that the stats are dominated by QBs from the current era, but he's 20th in completed passes, 21st in yards and 19th in TDs (behind guys from his era and earlier, like Marino, Tarkenton, Elway, Moon, Unitas, Testaverde). He's tied for 13th in QB wins (Russell Wilson will pass him in the next two years) and his replacement was just as impressive statistically (both Young and Montana have 3 All-Pros and 2 MVPs, Montana had slightly better counting stats and Young had slightly better rate stats). He was helped by playing with the best receiver in history, by a mile. Only Brady can beat his 4 super bowls (and he was good to great in all of them), but that's it. Considering his relatively short career and supporting cast, I think he's a lot closer to guys like Rodgers than Manning, but that appears to just be me.

Montana was surrounded by great teammates. He put up stats. He had signature moments that are replayed forever. He was seen as an ultimate winner, a great teammate and was a media darling.

He's basically Derek Jeter ... without the herpes.

 

[tims4wins]

Honestly, I'd put Montana in the overrated category (most people seem to put him 2nd or 3rd best QB ever). I know that the stats are dominated by QBs from the current era, but he's 20th in completed passes, 21st in yards and 19th in TDs (behind guys from his era and earlier, like Marino, Tarkenton, Elway, Moon, Unitas, Testaverde). He's tied for 13th in QB wins (Russell Wilson will pass him in the next two years) and his replacement was just as impressive statistically (both Young and Montana have 3 All-Pros and 2 MVPs, Montana had slightly better counting stats and Young had slightly better rate stats). He was helped by playing with the best receiver in history, by a mile. Only Brady can beat his 4 super bowls (and he was good to great in all of them), but that's it. Considering his relatively short career and supporting cast, I think he's a lot closer to guys like Rodgers than Manning, but that appears to just be me.

It'd kind of be like arguing that Koufax is the greatest pitcher of all time. Montana is buoyed by the 4 titles and 4 for 4 Super Bowl wins, and like you said playing good to great in those games. But I agree that Young's emergence has hurt his case, and he just didn't play enough to be in those GOAT conversations. Imagine if Jimmy took over for Brady in like 2014 and won a title and multiple MVPs and Brady left, played a couple more years, didn't win another title. He'd be looked at very very differently.

 

[rodderick]

I think they’re gonna run the ball, or at least try to, more than is typical/preferred.

Dropping Brady back 40 times by design against that front would be stupid, so I get it.

Not if you intend to throw short and use the running backs a ton in the passing game, which I expect them to do. Only way Brady throws less than 40 times today is if the Rams offense self destructs and Tampa builds a huge lead from the jump.

 

[Helmet Head]

Sorry if this has already been mentioned but have all 4 road teams ever won divisional round weekend? I would guess that 2 games today the road teams had a better chance going in than yesterday. Still not likely to happen but would be pretty wild.