Predictable but also a sterling example of how you mess with a QBs development. Yes, Waldron was probably doing more harm than good and maybe they can keep things on track will a fill-in, but it's a big organizational failure. Also I have to say seems rash. Waldron has been bad but Bears aren't going anywhere this year. Why not just ride it out?
NFL News and Notes 2024 Season
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The other problem is Eberflus likely gets flushed at the end of the year so there's a good chance Caleb will be on his 3rd OC/playcaller before his second pro season starts.
I think Chicago's biggest mistake was not cleaning house on the coaching staff after last year.
This right here. Should have dumped everyone after last year and hired an offensive coach to tie him to the hip of Caleb Williams.
They have done this THREE TIMES. The Bears are sneakily one of the worst run franchises.
It's how a rebuild should go. Vets need to contribute and if not, they're gone. There's more leeway with young kids.
Hiring Waldron was organizational malpractice. Seattle hated him. The players hated him. And he was bad.
The Bears got a generational talent at QB and paired him with a OC failure. I'll never understand how these guys who fail keep getting huge jobs.
Nix looked good last game vs the Chiefs, definitely better than the very controlled success he'd had prior to that. You'd be crazy to take him over Caleb, though. One has been handled well, the other terribly -- but Williams is still much more talented.
My guess is the Bears gave Waldron got credit for turning Geno Smith into a viable starter and thought he was a QB whisperer or something but ignored that the totality of the Seattle offense was not very good.
Eberflus has hired 2 OC's with the Bears. Luke Getsy who lasted 2 years before being essentially being blamed for Fields and was replaced by Waldron. Getsy landed with the Raiders as OC and lasted all of 8 games before being fired. The second hire is obviously Waldron who lasted 9 games. I think it's fair to conclude that Eberflus doesn't have any idea how to hire a capable OC. Now he's onto his 3rd OC, promoting Thomas Brown who was the passing game coordinator to OC. Brown was the Panthers OC last year so he has experience as a playcaller but "well, he worked with Bryce Young and the 2023 Panthers" is not really something I'd want to read if I was a Bears fan. The Bears are 4-5 and it's hard to see them getting to 6 wins given the schedule (all 6 divisional games plus San Fran and Seattle). So in all liklihood Eberflus is getting fired which means a new HC is on the way and that HC is going to hire his OC. Which means Williams will be on his 3rd before he plays his 20th NFL game. That can't be good and it's a repeated mistake by the Bears. John Fox was fired after Trubisky's rookie year, Matt Nagy was fired after Justin Fields rookie year. Looks like the same is going to happen to Eberflus.
It's like the Bears assumed Williams would fix a lot of problems right from day 1 and didn't think there would be any development arc to his game. They played well to end last year (5-3). Vibes were good, Caleb was on the way, they invested in skill guys around him and...oops those coaches are still here and turns out they do stink.
Eberflus has hired 2 OC's with the Bears. Luke Getsy who lasted 2 years before being essentially being blamed for Fields and was replaced by Waldron. Getsy landed with the Raiders as OC and lasted all of 8 games before being fired. The second hire is obviously Waldron who lasted 9 games. I think it's fair to conclude that Eberflus doesn't have any idea how to hire a capable OC. Now he's onto his 3rd OC, promoting Thomas Brown who was the passing game coordinator to OC. Brown was the Panthers OC last year so he has experience as a playcaller but "well, he worked with Bryce Young and the 2023 Panthers" is not really something I'd want to read if I was a Bears fan. The Bears are 4-5 and it's hard to see them getting to 6 wins given the schedule (all 6 divisional games plus San Fran and Seattle). So in all liklihood Eberflus is getting fired which means a new HC is on the way and that HC is going to hire his OC. Which means Williams will be on his 3rd before he plays his 20th NFL game. That can't be good and it's a repeated mistake by the Bears. John Fox was fired after Trubisky's rookie year, Matt Nagy was fired after Justin Fields rookie year. Looks like the same is going to happen to Eberflus.
It's like the Bears assumed Williams would fix a lot of problems right from day 1 and didn't think there would be any development arc to his game. They played well to end last year (5-3). Vibes were good, Caleb was on the way, they invested in skill guys around him and...oops those coaches are still here and turns out they do stink.
There are going to be teams offering Ben Johnson blank checks this off-season and Id put Chicago at the top of that list.
The sad thing is that it took 3 years for the Seahawks to figure out Waldron sucked, although he was better than Brian Schottenheimer, so Waldron was good by default.
Waldron shouldn't have gotten full credit, Dave Canales should have gotten the rest, although the way things have gone in Carolina, he doesn't really show off well either.
Geno is what he is; a slightly above average QB with a maddening ability to do stupid shit in key situations. Goes to show you how bad the Jets fucked him up iniitially.
The Bears are in the pantheon of shit franchises with Carolina, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Vegas and the Jets. You might arguably throw in the Giants, Colts and Saints into that mix. And maybe the Commanders and Chargers have solved some of their problems and are escaping the vortex.
a lot of people bought into the idea that Waldron “fixed” Geno Smith and therefore was a good pairing for a young QB
if you look around the old threads here, I’m sure there were plenty of people who liked the idea of Waldron over Van Pelt (or other options)
Not sure but @cshea ’s breakdown def. should make Patriots fans feel better about the sequencing of Belichick’s exit and the QB pick. We can debate whether Mayo was the right guy with the right experience but the Krafts were likely right to turn the coaching page at the same time they drafted Drake instead of giving Bill one more year (and one more quarterback) only to fire him anyway and have to bring on a completely different coaching crew during the crucial first two years of Maye’s development.
Man that would be an ideal spot for them. BB in Halas' shadow, with a potential stud young QB, and lots of other talent? If he could bring the glory back to that franchise it would be incredible.
The Bears also bring some ownership uncertainty and the front office will likely be in flux. Warren just got brought on board last year as President, he's going to want to put his stamp on things. That means Poles is probably gone too.
On the ownership side, Virginia McCaskey is 101 and the succession plan is unknown. I don't remember all the details but IIRC the NFL rules mean that a team needs to pass 30% ownership to single person in the family. George Halas gave like 4% to each of his grandkids when he passed and Virginia had like 20% ownership but had voting power that goes away when she dies. Who gets it and how they meet that 30% thing is a mystery. Listened to a pod on this recently, found it interesting.
On the ownership side, Virginia McCaskey is 101 and the succession plan is unknown. I don't remember all the details but IIRC the NFL rules mean that a team needs to pass 30% ownership to single person in the family. George Halas gave like 4% to each of his grandkids when he passed and Virginia had like 20% ownership but had voting power that goes away when she dies. Who gets it and how they meet that 30% thing is a mystery. Listened to a pod on this recently, found it interesting.
Here's a great piece from a few years ago about the Bears' succession plan that I came across when the Celtics went on the market a few months back. It's been a bit since I read it, but it includes some of the issues and implications: https://www.sportico.com/business/finance/2022/nfl-succession-plans-chicago-bears-mccaskey-1234687987/
(Sportico's whole series on this stuff is worth reading)
Patrick Mahomes: 69.5%, 7.1 y/a (2nd worst of his career), 3.9% TD (worst of his career), 2.9% INT (worst/highest of his career), 90.3 passer rating (worst of his career)
Current NFL ranks:
- comp %: #5
- pass yds: #11
- y/a: #19
- pass yds/g: #11
- pass TD: #10
- INT: tied for 3rd most
- passer rating: #17
- avg completed air yards: #38 (min 83 pass attempts, per NextGenStats)
- expected comp %: 70.5% (NGS must calculate this based on the avg. air yards and such; long story short, his impressing completion percentage is actually BELOW what we'd expect given the passes he throws)
- aggressiveness: #39 (he's throwing essentially only safe, easy, check down passes)
KC ranked #11 in points, #10 in yards gained. Points scored ranking is 2nd worst of Mahomes' career; yards gained ranking is the worst of Mahomes' career.
If we looked at his passing profile this year, we'd see a very MEH quarterback. Like, his performance is absolutely nothing whatsoever to write home about. It's mediocre at best. And he's got a great defense to help him out, a great offensive line, and pretty decent pass-catchers. Now his last two games have been better, adding Hopkins, so it bears watching. But on the whole, Mahomes just hasn't been great at all.
But there's not a single person here who would bet against him in a big spot. We all know he'll come up with the big play at the right moment and do the thing, whatever it is, to help them win the game.
Current NFL ranks:
- comp %: #5
- pass yds: #11
- y/a: #19
- pass yds/g: #11
- pass TD: #10
- INT: tied for 3rd most
- passer rating: #17
- avg completed air yards: #38 (min 83 pass attempts, per NextGenStats)
- expected comp %: 70.5% (NGS must calculate this based on the avg. air yards and such; long story short, his impressing completion percentage is actually BELOW what we'd expect given the passes he throws)
- aggressiveness: #39 (he's throwing essentially only safe, easy, check down passes)
KC ranked #11 in points, #10 in yards gained. Points scored ranking is 2nd worst of Mahomes' career; yards gained ranking is the worst of Mahomes' career.
If we looked at his passing profile this year, we'd see a very MEH quarterback. Like, his performance is absolutely nothing whatsoever to write home about. It's mediocre at best. And he's got a great defense to help him out, a great offensive line, and pretty decent pass-catchers. Now his last two games have been better, adding Hopkins, so it bears watching. But on the whole, Mahomes just hasn't been great at all.
But there's not a single person here who would bet against him in a big spot. We all know he'll come up with the big play at the right moment and do the thing, whatever it is, to help them win the game.
Like getting the defense to commit a ticky-tack defensive holding call....
I kid, I kid. Mostly.
It's been a piss poor year for Mahomes on the stats front, no doubt. But man alive, he does not have pretty decent pass catchers. He's got an old Kelce, who is still solid, and then a bunch of guys who wouldn't start for the Pats. Hopkins should help, tho. He would definitely start on the Pats.
But that WR crew after Rice went down was atrocious.
edit - the WRs are so bad, Rice, 3 games played, still leads the WR group in yards on the season. He's missed 66% of the season.
I would probably quibble with the pass catchers. I don't think they're very good as a unit and as a result are leaning heavily on Kelce which may not be a good thing in the long term. He's had 55 targets over the last 5 games because they have nobody else to throw to, compared to 21 over the first 4 weeks. In 2023 they managed his workload and he only had 3 games where he had 10 or more targets in the regular season, something that has now happened in 4 of the last 5 games. Part of his effectiveness in the playoffs was because they limited his workload in the regular season which they aren't doing this year. At WR, Rice got hurt and Worthy has not been very good. If he was on the Pats we'd be bashing him like Polk. He flashes but is inconsistent and not very efficient. 20 catches on 43 targets and on pace for about 500 receiving yards. Hopkins has been decent since joining but relying on 35 year old Kelce and 32 year old Hopkins may come back to bite them at some point. The rest are garbage. Juju and Mecole Hardman.
If they win this week they'll come close to locking up the bye. They'd have a 3 game lead over Buffalo with the tiebreaker. They'd have a minimum of a 3-game lead over the Ravens with the tiebreaker on them. The Steelers could be 2 back and have a head-to-head but the Chiefs could begin to throttle back and reduce workloads for Kelce and Hopkins so they are as fresh as could be for the playoffs.
They remind me a little bit of the Pats in Brady's final year here. The Pats started 8-0 but flaws were evident and by the end of the year Brady's pass catchers were a 33 year old Edelman, a broken Mohammad Sanu and a collection of rookies in Harry and Meyers. and the offense was clearly broken. The Pats got pounded by Baltimore and limped the rest of the way.
Not saying that will happen to Kansas City but I think there are some similarities. The Chiefs are also 7-0 in one score games which is usually not sustainable. They beat the Ravens by a milimeter, got a 4th and 15 flag on Cincy to get into FG range, dodged a XP range last second FG to beat Denver. Mahomes is Mahomes and if he gets the ball in a one score game with time on the clock you never bet against him but the Chiefs don't feel like a truly dominant 9-0 team.
If they win this week they'll come close to locking up the bye. They'd have a 3 game lead over Buffalo with the tiebreaker. They'd have a minimum of a 3-game lead over the Ravens with the tiebreaker on them. The Steelers could be 2 back and have a head-to-head but the Chiefs could begin to throttle back and reduce workloads for Kelce and Hopkins so they are as fresh as could be for the playoffs.
They remind me a little bit of the Pats in Brady's final year here. The Pats started 8-0 but flaws were evident and by the end of the year Brady's pass catchers were a 33 year old Edelman, a broken Mohammad Sanu and a collection of rookies in Harry and Meyers. and the offense was clearly broken. The Pats got pounded by Baltimore and limped the rest of the way.
Not saying that will happen to Kansas City but I think there are some similarities. The Chiefs are also 7-0 in one score games which is usually not sustainable. They beat the Ravens by a milimeter, got a 4th and 15 flag on Cincy to get into FG range, dodged a XP range last second FG to beat Denver. Mahomes is Mahomes and if he gets the ball in a one score game with time on the clock you never bet against him but the Chiefs don't feel like a truly dominant 9-0 team.
Yeah, I will always remember when Brady was all done in 2013 after a rough start. He did okay after that.
I think Mahomes will be just fine. Expectations are sky high for superstars.
I think Mahomes will be just fine. Expectations are sky high for superstars.
I'd happily take Kelce on the Pats. Hopkins is good still. Worthy is a dynamic playmaker, even if he's raw. Rice is good - not there now obviously but even when he was there, their offense sputtered. Their RBs are good pass-catchers.
Not the best group by any means, but I think pretty decent.
Worthy stinks. He has 20 catches in 9 games. He is miles behind all the other rookie WRs. He's a fast cardio king.
The Chiefs best WR after Rice got hurt was Juju. And then Juju got thurt. I am not sure I need to say more.
Yes, Kelce is great, but he's not young and was a decoy for the first half of the season. After Rice got hurt, the Chiefs had no good WRs until they got Hopkins. It hasn't been decent. It's been Patriots-esque.
If the bar they're clearing is "I'd take them on the Pats" then yeah sure the Chiefs skill players are decent. If you compare the Chiefs to the skill positions of the other contenders, the Chiefs are probably at or close to the bottom.
Agreed on Mahomes. He's having his worst season by far.
The Chiefs are doing this with elmers glue and duct tape. It's not sustainable.
They aren't dominant by any means. And over the course of a season things tend to even out. The question is: is this the best version of the team or will they improve from December onward? It could be the latter. We don't know. At they very least they are banking wins and putting themselves in an excellent position for the bye. Teams are also shitting themselves against them in close games, the Cincy and Denver endings being the most glaring examples. Once a team breaks through, that could change. I could easily see Buffalo winning this weekend by a few scores.
"Dominance" in the salary cap era is overrated and not sustainable over multiple years or eras. Winning without necessarily dominating is the only sustainable course.
Mahomes, as did Brady, provides the nearly unmatchable edge.
yes true that ......but holding or interference calls at a crucial moment are forever
This is kind of untrue. There's a lot of variance in close games. Weird shit happens. Two of the Chiefs near losses came with a toe out of bounds in the end zone and a blocked FG, two things Mahomes has no control over.
In the past 2 Super Bowl years the Chiefs are a combined 12-7 in games decided by less than 1 possession. Obviously very good but it's not a guarantee. The Brady/Mahomes dominance comes across in the number of blowouts. Obviously in "we get the ball last" scenarios, they are the two best. No doubt. But in close games you don't always get the ball last. Blowing teams out reduces the number of close games and thus the number of "weird shit happens" events, like avoiding Hail Mary's, Miami Miracles, needing to block a last second FG, etc. In Brady's final 2 super bowls with the Pats they went 3-2 in close games in 2018 and 2-1 in 2016. Far more blowouts than close ones and to me that's the seperator from good teams to dominant teams.
Chiefs are barely winning their games. Historically this isn't sustainable.
The Chiefs have the worst point differential for any team that is 9-0. When the Steelers did this in 2020, they fell apart and didn't get a playoff win. When Minnesota did this in 2022, they fell apart and didn't get a playoff win.
Dominance isn't overrated. What the Chiefs are doing is impressive because they find a way to win but it doesn't set them up for playoff success. They are winning some lucky games and getting every call, too. Not sustainable.
KC’s offensive line had a terrible performance against the Broncos. They’ve got a real problem at tackle that will become more obvious as the season goes on, though the interior is usually solid.
Worthy hasn’t had great production but there’s been a few times this season (including recent game against the Broncos) where he’s had a few steps ahead of his defender downfield and Mahomes has sailed the pass long. Mahomes has also had opportunities in the red zone where he’s just been uncharacteristically inaccurate and they’ve had to settle for FGs.
I would take the Ravens over them in a heartbeat in a playoff game. Maybe even the Bills.
Worthy hasn’t had great production but there’s been a few times this season (including recent game against the Broncos) where he’s had a few steps ahead of his defender downfield and Mahomes has sailed the pass long. Mahomes has also had opportunities in the red zone where he’s just been uncharacteristically inaccurate and they’ve had to settle for FGs.
I would take the Ravens over them in a heartbeat in a playoff game. Maybe even the Bills.
Is this something that happened all of a sudden?
Chiefs K Harrison Butker is going to IR, seems likely to impact the upcoming away game in Buffalo… Chiefs signed a K off of the Jets practice squad. Edit should refrain from judgment on whether the replacement kicker is any good, but the article references a kicking controversy within the Jets too. Hope it’s a windy night in Buffalo Sunday…
Edit2: not an all pro apparently. Just only missed 2 attempts all of 2023.
Harrison Butker to IR
Chiefs K Harrison Butker is going to IR, seems likely to impact the upcoming away game in Buffalo… Chiefs signed a K off of the Jets practice squad. Edit should refrain from judgment on whether the replacement kicker is any good, but the article references a kicking controversy within the Jets too. Hope it’s a windy night in Buffalo Sunday…
Edit2: not an all pro apparently. Just only missed 2 attempts all of 2023.
Harrison Butker to IR
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Lamar Jackson is 1-5 against Patrick Mahomes, and the only win was a 36-35 win in Baltimore that required a last-minute Lamar TD run. (and then a fumble by Edwards-Helaire with 1:24 left as KC was in position for the winning FG)
At some point you'd think the KC lack of firepower on offense will end up being a playoff loss. It should have been last year against the Ravens, but the Ravens coached a god awful game, so it's hard to trust them if they do meet up again in January.
I stumbled across this YT video last night. Someone added up how close, literally, like in inches, how far KC are from being 5-4. You could even expand it further to do 4-5.
View: https://youtu.be/1f0e5_PXCxA?si=M_byl5lVReokpV29
I was coming to post the same thing. They've been getting by on too thin a margin to survive having a shaky kicker.
I wonder how the meetings at NFL HQ are going to go on Monday after this debacle that was a live boxing event on Netflix. Netflix has two Live games on Christmas this season. And if this and the Love is Blind live reunion debacle are any indication of how well Netflix can handle live sporting events……
View: https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1857626837062488498
View: https://twitter.com/NFL_Memes/status/1857626837062488498
If you guys want to sell low on Mahomes, feel free. He's going to build chemistry with Dhop, he's still got Kelce, abd while Kareem Hunt does an admirable job, Pacheco comes back in a couple weeks and defenses will need to respect the run. And they have a great defense and coach. Until someone knocks them off, you are what your record says and I'm not betting against them until I see someone actually look better. Yeah, they're winning abd getting lucky. You know who isn't? Everyone else. There's a reason and Pats fans should know that better than anyone.
And great offenses help turn mediocre defenses into good ones, and vice versa. All 3 phases matter and all are connected.
And great offenses help turn mediocre defenses into good ones, and vice versa. All 3 phases matter and all are connected.
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