Next Coordinators - who do you want?

lexrageorge

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I'm guessing Keion White is Exhibit A of players that should have been expected to made a leap, but did not due to coaching. Organic growth from young players is a necessity in the NFL, and is at least partially the responsibility of the coaching staff.
 

Saints Rest

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One thing I've been thinking about in relation to McDaniels... what did Mac actually do well? Obviously, mobility and arm strength were big minuses for him. I also don't think he had pinpoint accuracy. I think Drake Maye makes better throws on screens and into the flat (he locates the ball better and gives receivers more of a chance for YAC). Reportedly, Mac struggled with post-snap reading of defenses. Where I would say Mac seemed to be good was in pre-snap reads and adjustments at the line, which maybe explains part of why he worked well with Josh McD but struggled as soon as Matt P came in and took a lot of that stuff out.



Exactly. Obviously most of Josh's OC success came with Brady, and Brady's breakout came when the team added Moss and Welker. But as OC, Josh has also worked well with Matt Cassel, Jimmy Garoppolo, Jacoby Brissett, armless Cam Newton, and Mac Jones. Bedard was on this, too.



Barmore may never play again. I do think White is more than a JAG, I think the whole defense suffered from terrible coching last year, including individual player skill work. I think the defense, including individual defensive players, is both quite a bit better than it showed last year while also being quite a bit worse than it showed the year before. I think competent coahcing will make a difference here, although the personnel situation is generally weak after Gonzalez.
I think the Pats D has a bunch of decent players after Gonzalez. Not stars, not Pro Bowlers, but some solid professional football players. The whole of the defense, which is all that really matters for a defense, was dreadful last year, way less than the sum of its parts, after generally -- going all the way back to the early years of Belichick, -- being greater than the sum. I'd put the following players into the category of "solid professional football players": Dugger, Peppers, both Jones, Godchaux, Jennings, White, Tavai. But too much of that defense for too much of the year was made up by guys who typically would be rotating between practice squad, inactive, and depth players: Pharms, Ekuale, Austin, Elliss, Pettuss, et al.

Losing Bentley for 15+ games, Barmore for 13+, Peppers for 11, those injuries hurt a lot.

Now they have no great playmakers which hurt them in terms of sacks and takeaways.

But if they can get close to full seasons from 2 of those 3 above, and add some solid guys in this off-season, especially in the front 7, combined with better coaching, I think they can pretty quickly return to being a top-ten defense.
 

Ed Hillel

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There is concern he had a 2nd blood clot. That means he would go on blood thinners permanently which would likely end his career.
I hadn’t seen that anywhere, just that they shut him down after he came back because of his symptoms from the original. If he had another…yeah, not good.
 

streeter88

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Barmore's return to the NFI list was discussed here. Post I am quoting below from @Arroyoyo was pretty informative.

I may have mentioned this in here but I have a blood clotting disorder, which has led to two DVT’s and one PE over the last 10 years.

My first clot, which led to PE, was thought to have been provoked by an injury to my leg. I was put on warfarin for six months before tapering off and remained clot-free for about 6 years afterwards with just the occasional aspirin before long flights and car rides.

Then out of nowhere I got a second DVT (hadn’t been taking anything for months at the time), which fortunately didn’t move. Hemo ran tests, we found out I have Factor 5 Leiden (which Barmore may also have), and told me because it was my second clot I’d be on anticoagulants for life. I now take 20mg Xeralto once a day; no clots in two years.

When I was initially prescribed Xeralto I was given “the talk” about “no contact sports, no high risk activities, take driving twice as seriously,” etc etc.

My guess is he goes on something like Xeralto for good and he’s given the same talk I was given. I think his career is over. The good news? As long as he keeps moving (no more sleeping on planes or sitting for overly-long periods) and taking his anticoagulants, he will be fine. All I’ve really given up at this point in my life is skiing and cycling at high speeds, though I rarely skied anyways.

It’s is really hard to develop another clot if you are remotely active and stay on schedule with whatever blood thinner you’re on. It can still happen, but today’s daily anticoagulants are highly effective.
 

NomarsFool

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I get the idea of stability, for sure, but at the same time I'm hopeful that with an experienced coordinator they can also bring in some 'up and coming' people underneath them that they can train up and have as a succession plan if they leave. So, I'd rather have some folks with experience, even if it's just for a year, vs. having a bunch of people "learning on the fly" like we had last year. When you hear the rants about how nearly everyone on the Pats coaching staff was in their role for the first time - it's just almost unfathomable how they put together such a putrid staff last season.
 

tims4wins

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I get the idea of stability, for sure, but at the same time I'm hopeful that with an experienced coordinator they can also bring in some 'up and coming' people underneath them that they can train up and have as a succession plan if they leave. So, I'd rather have some folks with experience, even if it's just for a year, vs. having a bunch of people "learning on the fly" like we had last year. When you hear the rants about how nearly everyone on the Pats coaching staff was in their role for the first time - it's just almost unfathomable how they put together such a putrid staff last season.
This would be much more important with a Saleh on D than it would for a McDaniels on offense. McDaniels has likely shifted into the Norv Turner / Wade Phillips stage of not being a legitimate head coaching candidate ever again; whereas I could absolutely Saleh coming in, elevating the D back into the top 10, and having opportunities in January 2026.
 

NomarsFool

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This would be much more important with a Saleh on D than it would for a McDaniels on offense. McDaniels has likely shifted into the Norv Turner / Wade Phillips stage of not being a legitimate head coaching candidate ever again; whereas I could absolutely Saleh coming in, elevating the D back into the top 10, and having opportunities in January 2026.
What happened with McDaniels in LV that was so awful that he would never be considered again?
 

tims4wins

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What happened with McDaniels in LV that was so awful that he would never be considered again?
Not sure anything specific, but he hasn't come close to sniffing success despite taking 10+ years in between head coaching jobs.

He started 6-0 in Denver.

Since then, he went 14-33.

He was fired from BOTH jobs midway through his second season.

Guys like that don't get a third chance.
 

sezwho

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What happened with McDaniels in LV that was so awful that he would never be considered again?
He’s a cataclysm as a head coach for whatever reason and probably embodies the Peter principle better than any other of Bill’s people. If Vrabel wants him as OC then I’m fine though, what the hell do I know.

What I really wanted to ask for feeback about is Saleh. I loved the observation above that he’s a cover three guy (no idea about whether hed come this is more about the architecture of his defense). Full transparency - I hate the 2 gap defense. I have hated it for years. For the Pats at its peak it was effective when basically nobody else was running that 34 and you could get nose tackles like Ted Washington and the corresponding LBs for cheap.

I’m ready for people to explain how great the patriots defense has been. I don’t think it’s been great for many years, but whatever, maybe that’s a separate thread.

I want to throw out the entire defense. Now it’s about getting the passer and I don’t trust a 2 gap defense to do it well without exceptional athletes who can essentially overcome that limitation of having to react, not “proact “. We don’t seem likely to get a big stable of those athletes anytime soon. I’d rather look for athletic defensive lineman more focused on getting upField and more able to contain the new generation of athletic qbs. I think you need Raven‘s quality athletes to play that 2gap defense effectively in the NFL.

If that means Saleh than great
 
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BigJimEd

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Just an FYI, Patriots D was ranked 2nd in Points and 4th in yards in 2021. #1 in both in 2019.

Titans D under Vrabel was very good his first year and mostly middle of the road thereafter. He had Pees his first couple years there but there was reportedly some conflict there. Shane Bowen, now with the Giants, was his DC the last few years. In Houston, the year Vrabel took over as DC from Crennel they were 32nd in points given up after being 11 the previous year. Up to 4th the next year when he left for Tenn. However, there were injuries that year plus HC is different job.


As mentioned, the biggest factor in coordinators will be meshing with Vrabel and his philosophy. I'd be ok with Saleh and McDaniels. Neither would really excite me though particularly McDaniels. I'd put him probably slightly above bringing back Van Pelt.
 
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Just an FYI, Patriots D was ranked 2nd in Points and 4th in yards in 2021. #1 in both in 2019.

Titans D under Vrabel was very good his first year and mostly middle of the road thereafter. He had Pees his first couple years there but there was reportedly some conflict there. Shane Bowen, now with the Giants, was his DC the last few years. In Houston, the year Vrabel took over as DC from Crennel they were 32nd in points given up after being 11 the previous year. Up to 4th the next year when he left for Tenn. However, there were injuries that year plus HC is different job.


As mentioned, the biggest factor in coordinators will be meshing with Vrabel and his philosophy. I'd be ok with Saleh and McDaniels. Neither would really excite me though particularly McDaniels. I'd put him probably slightly above bringing back Van Pelt.
I don’t think anyone could or would try to say Vrabel is some sort of defensive wizard. He’s a pretty mediocre (at best) defensive coach. I would hope he sticks with the CEO approach and finds a talented DC who can run that side of the ball.
 

NortheasternPJ

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No interest in a 1-2 year stopgap at OC.
Agreed, literally the last thing the Patriots and Maye specifically need. They need a guy who’s going to be around at least 4-5 years which is someone like McDaniels who’s 99% done Head Coaching.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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I think he gets a HC job this cycle
He very well might

No interest in a 1-2 year stopgap at OC.
That's interesting, and thanks for sharing. It seems kinda unrelated tho to my proposal that he take on a role similar to Vrabel's in Cleveland. Which was [/checks notes] not OC.
 

Justthetippett

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Agreed, literally the last thing the Patriots and Maye specifically need. They need a guy who’s going to be around at least 4-5 years which is someone like McDaniels who’s 99% done Head Coaching.
The only way Josh gets another HC job is if Maye throws 50tds and the Pats score 600pts. In that case, we'll live with the transition!
 

jasail

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Bringing the Pats D back to mere competence, or showing improvement, makes the DC look good. The worst scenario would be a cap-strapped franchise with old and expensive players. Pats don't have that problem.
I don’t disagree with the assertion that the Pats aren’t the worst case scenario and that one could spin some upside to taking the job. My greater point was that the top tier guys like Saleh or Flores likely have better choices and a young stud is likely going to seek more stability. IMO, theyre probably in the market for a well worn retread.
 

DJnVa

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so one building block

one mediocre inconsistent guy

one guy who will possibly (probably?) have to retire

One guy who may or may not make it to the Pats pick and may or may not even be on their radar

Not seeing that as appealing
Awesome, we won't offer you a job.

Just to entertain myself--yes, one guy is inconsistent---the point is there appears to be some talent there. Some coaches might fight that intriguing. Barmore--I get it, but I'm being optimistic.

And you're likely drunk if you think Carter isn't on their radar.
 

DJnVa

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At best they have ~ four guys goodish players on that side of the ball, and three come with caveats, and two of them play the same position.
Great, how many goodish guys are on the other side of the ball? Younger guys that you could see contributing to next Pats playoff team?

If you equate Maye and Gonzo, who are the next best younger dudes on the roster that have the potential to be really good players? I'd submit Barmore (this is about his health) and White are on that list, and maybe Pop Douglas?

That said, there are 32 DC jobs--people are gonna want the job.

I don’t disagree with the assertion that the Pats aren’t the worst case scenario and that one could spin some upside to taking the job. My greater point was that the top tier guys like Saleh or Flores likely have better choices and a young stud is likely going to seek more stability. IMO, theyre probably in the market for a well worn retread.
I didn't say Saleh or Flores (I still don't understand why he'd leave Minnesota for a lateral move). I said "someone is gonna want that job". You don't generally see young stud DCs anyway.
 
Oct 12, 2023
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Awesome, we won't offer you a job.
I didn’t realize you worked for the Pats? I like my real job though so I wouldn’t be interested anyway.

And you're likely drunk if you think Carter isn't on their radar.
Unnecessarily combative response for what should have been an obvious point. They might not be looking at an EDGE, now or by the time April rolls around. I’m sure you understood that though.

You make it seem like the current Pats D is an attractive spot for a D Coordinator based on its current or future talent. I think that’s beyond optimistic given the actual talent on the roster currently and what those 25 or so guys have proven.

Almost every team has a 2nd round or whatever recent pick who is promising. Almost every team has a couple of plus players (most of whom aren’t staring at medical retirement)

What separates the Pats DC job from any number of open positions? You think Gonzalez and Keion White and maybe Barmore is really more attractive than say Sauce Gardner, Quincy Williams and Quinnen Williams? Or Jaylon Johnson, Tremaine Edmunds and Montez Sweat?

I’m not seeing what makes this an attractive spot relative to most other open positions, at least in terms of rostered talent. Perhaps working for Vrabel will be a draw. But the front 7 is bottom 5 in the league and other than Gonzalez there isn’t a ton in the secondary unless you’re expecting Dugger to bounce back. I don’t think anyone is salivating at the idea of coaching up Wise, Tavai and Pharms
 

NomarsFool

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But how many DC jobs are there that promise playing in Foxboro and enjoying this beautiful weather?
 

bankshot1

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I would think most up and coming position coaches (preferably D related) would jump at the opportunity to become DC for a rebuilding Pats team. For an established DC the cost of failure may be too high as rebuilding a depleted Pats D could hurt chances for a future HC job. But a talented young position coach could make his bones with the Pats with not much downside and lots of upside.
 

brendan f

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Just an FYI, Patriots D was ranked 2nd in Points and 4th in yards in 2021. #1 in both in 2019.

Titans D under Vrabel was very good his first year and mostly middle of the road thereafter. He had Pees his first couple years there but there was reportedly some conflict there. Shane Bowen, now with the Giants, was his DC the last few years. In Houston, the year Vrabel took over as DC from Crennel they were 32nd in points given up after being 11 the previous year. Up to 4th the next year when he left for Tenn. However, there were injuries that year plus HC is different job.


As mentioned, the biggest factor in coordinators will be meshing with Vrabel and his philosophy. I'd be ok with Saleh and McDaniels. Neither would really excite me though particularly McDaniels. I'd put him probably slightly above bringing back Van Pelt.
I don't think Saleh and Vrabel are a good fit. Vrabel likely wants a smaller personality as his DC and I'd be surprised if Saleh had much interest.

I'm with you on McDaniels. I could see it happening but I'm lukewarm. The problem is most of the guys who are up and coming have (obviously) never been OCs. That's why I wonder if Vrabel would want someone like Tim Kelly, who he promoted to OC in Tennessee but then was eventually fired by ownership after they let Vrabel go.

Tommy Rees would be an exciting name for me. Vrabel might consider him since he at least was an OC in college.
 
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Mooch

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I want a defensive coordinator who excels at generating turnovers. The 2024 Pats ranked 30th in that department.

Mike Caldwell would be an intersting hire. His Jags defenses were top 10 his two years in TOs and he did some nice work with the Raiders this past season.
 

AlNipper49

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What do I want? I want a system in place.

I want two experienced coordinators who have a five year window. I want them to find the two most innovative thinkers from the college ranks to serve under them in some capacity. Succession plan them. There will be turnover, but I'd rather have some sort of simple, linear plan in place. Hunting and pecking for the best options regularly isn't a way to establish and keep a culture. I think a strong, strong culture is more important than having someone in place that is, for arguments sake, 10% worse than a "free agent" coordinator.
 

cshea

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I want a defensive coordinator who excels at generating turnovers. The 2024 Pats ranked 30th in that department.

Mike Caldwell would be an intersting hire. His Jags defenses were top 10 his two years in TOs and he did some nice work with the Raiders this past season.
I don't know that there really is any system or DC that excels specifically at generating turnovers. There's a lot of variance year to year. Those Jags teams were middle of the pack in generating interceptions and fumbles. Their top 10 in takeaways was because they recovered an unusually high number of their forced fumbles. In 2022 they only forced 12 fumbles but recovered 11 of them. In 2023 it was 17/13. For reference the 2024 Patriots forced 14 fumbles this year, 14th in the league, but only recovered 5 of them.
 

rodderick

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In the long run, turnovers are generally a product of forcing the opponent to consistently play from behind, more than any specific strategy or scheme. Year to year there's huge variance.
 

Cellar-Door

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Co-ordinators is going to be interesting, because I'm not sure there are any slam dunk fits. Looking at it...


OC:

McDaniels:
Pros- History of QB work, long playcalling history in the NFL, reliable run game design, likely to stay a number of years
Cons- Kind of outdated scheme, changes all terminology/structure for Maye, not a big RPO/creative QB run guy,

Van Pelt:
Pros- worked well with Maye this year, keeps consistency, starting to build playcalling experience, older so less likely to be 1 or 2 and done
Cons- not much history of creative RPO/Run stuff, kind of stale system

Tommy Rees:
Pros- 1 year with Stefanski so can keep same terminology/sets as AVP, worked with a rushing QB in college, called plays (college) for 3 years
Cons- Little NFL experience, results in college were spotty as PC, not the most creative guy, could be 1 or 2 and done if he succeeds

Nick Caley:
Pros- Experience in a few systems, worked to add McDaniels stuff to McVay scheme,
Cons- No QB background, never called plays, never ran a room

Todd Downing/Tim Kelly
Pros: Worked for Vrabel before, West Coast systems, have called plays
Cons: were bad, not much running QB or RPO stuff

Josh McCown
Pros- West Coast Experience, relationship with May
Cons- never been an OC, no playcalling experience, considered a fast track to HC guy

Klint Kubiak
Pros- Shanahan system is close to AVP's so no major changes, has called plays, run game and PA matches Vrabel's Arthur Smith years success plan
Cons- still inexperienced, possibly too rigid, HC fast track if he succeeds, unclear how much RPO/QB run he plans

Will do DC in a separate post.
 

dynomite

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What I really wanted to ask for feeback about is Saleh. I loved the observation above that he’s a cover three guy (no idea about whether hed come this is more about the architecture of his defense). Full transparency - I hate the 2 gap defense. I have hated it for years. For the Pats at its peak it was effective when basically nobody else was running that 34 and you could get nose tackles like Ted Washington and the corresponding LBs for cheap.

I’m ready for people to explain how great the patriots defense has been. I don’t think it’s been great for many years, but whatever, maybe that’s a separate thread.
So I mentioned that Saleh is a Cover 3 guy because I'd heard that on the Patriots Unfiltered podcast and seen that online a few places.

Interestingly, this paid side (which I don't pay for) says Saleh had moved from Cover 3 to Quarters during his tenure with the J-e-s-t: https://jetsxfactor.com/2023/08/15/ny-jets-pros-cons-saleh-defense/

For two years in a row, the Jets have been one of the NFL’s leaders in Quarters coverage usage. Last year, New York led the league in its use at ~26% of its snaps (In reality, it was much higher). This year, only the Cardinals ran a higher amount. Since ‘18, Robert Saleh has made a concerted shift from Cover 3 to Quarters, and the trend is not going away.

The rise of CB DJ Reed (#4) opposite star wunderkind CB Sauce Gardner (#1) has been a coup for the Jets. Including Ni Micheal Carter II (#30), all three of New York’s primary coverage DBs have a completion percentage of under 60% (PFF). Quarters, which plays like man coverage with ‘rules’ for the CBs, is boosted when a defense has man CBs outside and a Ni who can carry a Slot WR.

The mix of Quarters and Cover 1 is a trend within teams that do not diversify their coverages or use a multitude of simulated pressures. In fact, the Jets sit 29th in Sim% at 3.6%. New York, like San Fransisco and Houston (same tree), has a relatively static defensive scheme.
I realize this could pose a fit challenge with Vrabel.

When he was DC for the Texans, per Lazar, they ran a Patriots-style base 3-4 defense. And per this article with film breakdowns, as DC Vrabel loved running "Diamond Fronts":

Obviously both run base 3-4’s, but the similarities go deeper. Let’s start with a pass rush look that Vrabel is largely associated with: the diamond front.

So what is the diamond front? You can check out a couple good reads on the concept here and here, but in general it’s not a terribly complicated concept. Its basically a variation of a zone blitz where the defense starts with 5 defenders on the line of scrimmage across from the offense’s 5 offensive linemen, dictating one on one blocking assignments pre-snap. After the ball is snapped, 1 or 2 of those defenders may drop off in to coverage while the others rush. They could also elect to bring all 5, or they could even drop 1 and replace him with a blitzing linebacker, corner, or safety. There are lots of options that can be built off this very basic look, but the beauty of the design is the ability for the defense to dictate blocking assignments to create mismatches in their favor.
So there's a real philosophical difference there:

Vrabel likes to disguise pressure and have 5 guys on the line.

Saleh likes to run similar looks on every play and only rush 4 guys, and not simulate pressure.

Maybe Vrabel is willing to experiment with something new, but in general I would assume coaches mostly stick with what they know, right?
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Co-ordinators is going to be interesting, because I'm not sure there are any slam dunk fits.
So there's a real philosophical difference there
So this somewhere at the intersection of a stupid question and something I don't understand very well about NFL OCs and DCs...

...How much to people have clear / rigid "philosophies" or systems that they carry with them wherever they go, vs. being flexible and adopting things from all over, depending on their personnel and the situation.

I get that you gotta train an offense and defense on stuff and get them to the place where they can execute instinctively. So you can't rebuild Rome every day.

At the same time, if someone is smart, and curious, and always scanning for competitive advantage then they're not going to role out the same static stuff year after year.

Which is maybe a round-about way to say: If we're hiring an OC and a DC who are smart/curious/competitive, then how much does it matter what they ran ten years ago? If they're the kind of people who adapt, then they'll adapt here. If they're not the kinda people who adapt, then whatever they run here will increasingly fail over time, however well it did a decade ago.

Or is this the wrong way to think about it?
 

Cellar-Door

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DC Candidates...

Robert Saleh
Pros- Lot of success, experienced
Cons- system guy not sure if fits talent (needs strong front), likely a 1 or 2 and done

Steve Wilks
Pros- Experienced, scheme is secondary based which may fit personnel better, less likely to be a HC candidate
Cons- not always stout against the run, rigid

Dennis Allen
Pros- experienced, multiple, unlikely to get a 3rd HC job (as a note, saw this nice PFF piece from 2021 about how he stymied Brady https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-new-orleans-saints-dennis-allen-defense-buccaneers-tom-brady-week-15-2021)
Cons- prefers 4 front, might be taking a year off

Shane Bowen
Pros- Experienced, worked with Vrabel before
Cons- still under contract with NYG, results were more middling than excellent

Patrick Graham
Pros- Has called plays, worked under Dean Pees (Vrabel's 1st DC) plus BB and Flores,
Cons- already getting HC interviews, so a couple years and gone a possibility

Christian Parker
Pros- Young, DB specialist, interviewed here last year, really strong (but short) track record as position coach
Cons- really inexperienced, fast riser could get poached after a few years

Clint Hurtt
Pros- experienced, has been a DC, pass rush specialist
Cons- not much back 7 experience, SEA defenses were not great under him

Bobby King
Pros- worked with Vrabel twice, strong development record for LB/Edge players
Cons- never been a DC, little experience anywhere but LB coach
 

Cellar-Door

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McDaniels ran RPOs with Cam.
He did, but he's said he's not an expert in them, and he was not considered particularly good/creative with his RPO usage. I'm sure he COULD do it, but if you want to run that a lot, you're better off with someone who has done it a lot.

So this somewhere at the intersection of a stupid question and something I don't understand very well about NFL OCs and DCs...

...How much to people have clear / rigid "philosophies" or systems that they carry with them wherever they go, vs. being flexible and adopting things from all over, depending on their personnel and the situation.

I get that you gotta train an offense and defense on stuff and get them to the place where they can execute instinctively. So you can't rebuild Rome every day.

At the same time, if someone is smart, and curious, and always scanning for competitive advantage then they're not going to role out the same static stuff year after year.

Which is maybe a round-about way to say: If we're hiring an OC and a DC who are smart/curious/competitive, then how much does it matter what they ran ten years ago? If they're the kind of people who adapt, then they'll adapt here. If they're not the kinda people who adapt, then whatever they run here will increasingly fail over time, however well it did a decade ago.

Or is this the wrong way to think about it?
So it depends....
I'd say more defenses are flexible than offenses. But also, yes guys steal stuff all the time from other systems, adjust etc but.... you need the base. What is the core of your offense, what are you adding variations to. Guys also become specialists.... any guy up there hypothetically COULD run somebody else's system, they are smart guys, but they've spent years on getting in-depth understanding of their own system, that puts them in better position to teach it, to find ways to add wrinkes to it, and to know what plays/variations will work against what defense/personnel.
 

dynomite

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I want two experienced coordinators who have a five year window. I want them to find the two most innovative thinkers from the college ranks to serve under them in some capacity. Succession plan them.
Definitely agree re thinking about a succession plan, but when you say a "five year window," what does this mean? I just think especially in the modern NFL where teams seem to prefer hiring NFL coordinators to college HCs, successful coordinators become HC candidates after ~2 seasons.

Co-ordinators is going to be interesting, because I'm not sure there are any slam dunk fits. Looking at it...


OC:..
Solid writeups! Thanks for taking the time.

- re McDaniels, I'm interested what outdated scheme means? His Raiders were 12th in the NFL in points/yards in 2022 with Carr missing 2 games. The team as a whole was obviously not good, but the offensive scheme seemed to be fairly successful (and yes, they had good personnel in Jacobs and Adams but most good offenses have good players).

- re AVP, reading the piece above that Maye basically glued himself to AVP's side between drives is the first thing that's given me pause about showing him the door. But ultimately I just can't shake the performance of this offense in November/December.

Another name I read in that 98.5 article that I want to resurface is Mike Lafleur, the non-play calling OC of the Rams.

He's still only 37, has run rooms/called plays as an OC (with the Saleh Jets, after which he got fired then hired by McVay), and he's spent two season overseeing the Rams offense as Nacua developed into a borderline All Pro and that team has put on an offensive clinic. And sure, McVay deserves a lot of credit for that, but I would want to bring Lafleur in and hear him talk about that and his ideas for Maye.

So this somewhere at the intersection of a stupid question and something I don't understand very well about NFL OCs and DCs...

...How much to people have clear / rigid "philosophies" or systems that they carry with them wherever they go, vs. being flexible and adopting things from all over, depending on their personnel and the situation.
Not a stupid question! And I don't know the answer to this, although I agree with what @Cellar-Door wrote.

My instinct is that often guys have their "system" -- like college professors or something, you need to be such an expert in your subject that you can fluently teach it and answer student questions, which takes years of study in that subject. That's not to say that Cover 3 is so completely different from base 3-4 that it's the equivalent of an English PhD vs. an Astronomy PhD, but I think it's got to be hard to feel confident you can radically change what you're coaching and training your players to run year-to-year or game-to-game.

Beyond that, if you're basing what you run based on a few personnel... what if those guys get hurt mid-season?

Belichick, as always, was an outlier here. And going back to an old press conference, he offered a MasterClass on this and seemed to indicate there was value to "zigging" while other teams "zagged" -- that they were able to sign Colvin and Vrabel (ironically) in 2000/01 because the Pats were one of the only teams running a 3-4 and didn't have much competition for nose tackles (Ted Washington?), and then 15 years later everything changed:

 

AlNipper49

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Definitely agree re thinking about a succession plan, but when you say a "five year window," what does this mean? I just think especially in the modern NFL where teams seem to prefer hiring NFL coordinators to college HCs, successful coordinators become HC candidates after ~2 seasons.



Solid writeups! Thanks for taking the time.

- re McDaniels, I'm interested what outdated scheme means? His Raiders were 12th in the NFL in points/yards in 2022 with Carr missing 2 games. The team as a whole was obviously not good, but the offensive scheme seemed to be fairly successful (and yes, they had good personnel in Jacobs and Adams but most good offenses have good players).

- re AVP, reading the piece above that Maye basically glued himself to AVP's side between drives is the first thing that's given me pause about showing him the door. But ultimately I just can't shake the performance of this offense in November/December.

Another name I read in that 98.5 article that I want to resurface is Mike Lafleur, the non-play calling OC of the Rams.

He's still only 37, has run rooms/called plays as an OC (with the Saleh Jets, after which he got fired then hired by McVay), and he's spent two season overseeing the Rams offense as Nacua developed into a borderline All Pro and that team has put on an offensive clinic. And sure, McVay deserves a lot of credit for that, but I would want to bring Lafleur in and hear him talk about that and his ideas for Maye.



Not a stupid question! And I don't know the answer to this, although I agree with what @Cellar-Door wrote.

My instinct is that often guys have their "system" -- like college professors or something, you need to be such an expert in your subject that you can fluently teach it and answer student questions, which takes years of study in that subject. That's not to say that Cover 3 is so completely different from base 3-4 that it's the equivalent of an English PhD vs. an Astronomy PhD, but I think it's got to be hard to feel confident you can radically change what you're coaching and training your players to run year-to-year or game-to-game.

Beyond that, if you're basing what you run based on a few personnel... what if those guys get hurt mid-season?

Belichick, as always, was an outlier here. And going back to an old press conference, he offered a MasterClass on this and seemed to indicate there was value to "zigging" while other teams "zagged" -- that they were able to sign Colvin and Vrabel (ironically) in 2000/01 because the Pats were one of the only teams running a 3-4 and didn't have much competition for nose tackles (Ted Washington?), and then 15 years later everything changed:

In terms of a five year window I don’t think that getting a coordinator and planning on that person being there as long as the coach is reasonable. If they are good they’ll get poached, if not they should leave.

If I were Vrabel I’d plan on five years and, if in five years there is a variable that may make things change, it’s up to him to be flexible to accommodate for that. My point is I want these assistant coordinators to force the issue by being better than expected.

I probably described it more black and white than I intended to.
 

NortheasternPJ

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In terms of a five year window I don’t think that getting a coordinator and planning on that person being there as long as the coach is reasonable. If they are good they’ll get poached, if not they should leave.

If I were Vrabel I’d plan on five years and, if in five years there is a variable that may make things change, it’s up to him to be flexible to accommodate for that. My point is I want these assistant coordinators to force the issue by being better than expected.

I probably described it more black and white than I intended to.
Which is why i like the option of McDaniels, he’s not likely to head coach again so there’s no where to go and he seems to like it here.

I’d also like AVP to stay if what they say about Maye is true. I don’t know if it’s TC McCartney or AVP or both, but if AVP is that close with Maye, they should get him on the staff somewhere if they can.
 

cshea

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Feels like a tough needle to thread to retain AVP but remove playcalling responsibilities and bringing in someone above him. Especially if it is Josh or someone of that ilk that you hope to be here long-ish term.

Maybe AVP gets no bites elsewhere and they monkey around with titles or something (keep him as OC, name McDaniels assistant head coach or something dumb, I don't know) to keep him here but it feels like a long shot.
 

Bowser

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I don't know that there really is any system or DC that excels specifically at generating turnovers. There's a lot of variance year to year. Those Jags teams were middle of the pack in generating interceptions and fumbles. Their top 10 in takeaways was because they recovered an unusually high number of their forced fumbles. In 2022 they only forced 12 fumbles but recovered 11 of them. In 2023 it was 17/13. For reference the 2024 Patriots forced 14 fumbles this year, 14th in the league, but only recovered 5 of them.
No, no, bullshit. I want a coordinator who will literally force fumbles and highpoint errant passes. We don't have the time or the roster to get an entire defense up to speed on this shit.
 

Justthetippett

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Which is why i like the option of McDaniels, he’s not likely to head coach again so there’s no where to go and he seems to like it here.

I’d also like AVP to stay if what they say about Maye is true. I don’t know if it’s TC McCartney or AVP or both, but if AVP is that close with Maye, they should get him on the staff somewhere if they can.
If AVP stays I don't think he'll be calling plays, so it can be in whatever offensive assistant role like MacAdoo. He probably does not have many options to go call plays elsewhere so may take it. If Josh comes I bet he brings a few guys too, so it depends whether they can all mesh. I would have my doubts. Might be better to keep a guy like McCartney but otherwise turn the page.
 

jasail

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Great, how many goodish guys are on the other side of the ball? Younger guys that you could see contributing to next Pats playoff team?

If you equate Maye and Gonzo, who are the next best younger dudes on the roster that have the potential to be really good players? I'd submit Barmore (this is about his health) and White are on that list, and maybe Pop Douglas?

That said, there are 32 DC jobs--people are gonna want the job.



I didn't say Saleh or Flores (I still don't understand why he'd leave Minnesota for a lateral move). I said "someone is gonna want that job". You don't generally see young stud DCs anyway.
Yes, the roster is bereft of talent on both sides of the ball. It's not shocking to say this team sucks up and down. I've been saying for months that you could get rid of 50 players this team if it made sense (keeping Maye, Gonzo, and Schooler). So yes, this comes down to them just having one stud in each facet of the game. However, despite similarly bad rosters on offense and defense (and offense probably being the worse of the two units), the situations on the are not the same in terms of being an attractive job. There are a lot of bad teams with lockdown corners and very few bad teams with legit QBs. This is because the impact of the QB position on outcomes is disproportionate to any other position. Therefore, I think the prospective of building a roster and program around Maye is far more attractive than Gonzo, and as such, the Pats are far more likely to entice a blue chip OC than they are a DC.

I never said no one would take the defensive job, just pointed out that their options are likely more limited. On offense, I can see the Pats being in the running for a guy like McCown - should they want to go in that direction - rather than having to focus on a guy like McD (talented but dated and with limited other prospects). On the defensive side of the ball, particularly if they are looking for experience, they are probably going to be limited to hiring a retread who is unlikely to be on HC carousel again. When responding to someone else, I used Saleh and Flores as examples of coaches who are unlikely to come here at this point in their career because of our roster situation. Same thing can probably be said about Patrick Graham. I doubt NE is a destination for a defensive guy looking to be an HC within 2-3 years - the roster is too thin and the chance of failure too likely. Ultimately, Maye is a huge X-factor and Gonzo is a very good #1DB and those are two very different things when it comes to evaluating a prospective job.