New MLB/NPB Posting Rules

[Sox and Rocks]

The old posting rules were a huge advantage to bigger market teams, obviously.  As others have pointed out, the new rules don't seem to help this at all.  
 
Why not do this:  Keep it the same as the past, with the postings secret and the highest bidder winning the right to negotiate with the player.  However, add the posting fee to the luxury tax so that teams must factor this in.  This would be a disincentive for bigger market teams, but not one strong enough to keep them from participating in all circumstances. You could also have a mandatory amount count against the tax for all teams that bid, no matter whether they win the bidding or not.  Something small, like say even 3-4 million, would make bigger market teams think twice about bidding on a player since there would be a tax/cap penalty no matter what, while smaller market teams wouldn't care since they aren't at or close to the tax threshold anyway.  

 

[Cellar-Door]

The old posting rules were a huge advantage to bigger market teams, obviously.  As others have pointed out, the new rules don't seem to help this at all.  
 
Why not do this:  Keep it the same as the past, with the postings secret and the highest bidder winning the right to negotiate with the player.  However, add the posting fee to the luxury tax so that teams must factor this in.  This would be a disincentive for bigger market teams, but not one strong enough to keep them from participating in all circumstances. You could also have a mandatory amount count against the tax for all teams that bid, no matter whether they win the bidding or not.  Something small, like say even 3-4 million, would make bigger market teams think twice about bidding on a player since there would be a tax/cap penalty no matter what, while smaller market teams wouldn't care since they aren't at or close to the tax threshold anyway.  

The NPB has a few teams pissed off a a $20M cap, your proposal would guarantee no team would ever post a top player again.

 

[Drek717]

The small market teams aren't trying to make it more likely that they will win an NPB auction; they are trying to make it so that a greater percentage of the overall package paid by the likely big-market winner counts towards the tax, which in turn increases the size of their revenue sharing check. They are just grubbing for a few extra bucks, which I guess you can't blame them for.

Well, it also makes splashing the pot for NPB players more prohibitive from a baseball standpoint.  I mean, the Yankees don't play with a budget but everyone else more or less does.  If a NPB FA could have multiple bidders and more of the money counted for luxury tax purposes it will take away resources the signing team could use for ML FAs, other international FAs, etc..
 
It caps the amount of money that can be effectively tax hidden.
 
I will say though, given Tanaka's age and how competitive Rakuten is I can definitely see them keeping Tanaka for a few more years before posting him.  He'll still get $20M for them then, and they'll get to have him for a few more years including a title defense.  Not posting him this season doesn't mean they can never post him.

 

[Idabomb333]

What they should do is make every team that posts the bid to actually have to pony up the money just for the right to negotiate. So 5 teams bid $20 million?  The Japanese club gets $100 million.

I think I like this idea a lot.  It would be especially interesting if instead of a universal maximum bid, the Japanese team could set the negotiation price for an individual player.  Then they can say, "this guy's worth $50 million to us.  If you want to pay us that just to negotiate, go for it.  Otherwise we'll keep him."  Or they could, depending on the market, decide that if they only ask $5 million to negotiate, that means at least 10 teams will pay it, and they end up with just as much money, but they risk that lower-budget teams won't actually pay to negotiate, because they think they'd lose the negotiation.

 

[StuckOnYouk]

If MLB teams lose their 20 mil bid if they don't win the negotiations, i would think that there won't be many MLB teams bidding 20 mil just for the right to negotiate. Talk about a kick in the nuts - not only do you not get the player, but you lose 20 mil for jut negotiating.
 
So like Ida said, if they go with that type of system, the bid would have to be closer to 5 mil maybe.

 

[Ananti]

If MLB teams lose their 20 mil bid if they don't win the negotiations, i would think that there won't be many MLB teams bidding 20 mil just for the right to negotiate. Talk about a kick in the nuts - not only do you not get the player, but you lose 20 mil for jut negotiating.
 
So like Ida said, if they go with that type of system, the bid would have to be closer to 5 mil maybe.

If you bid 5 million and somebody else bids 20, only the 20 million bidder gets to negotiate.  Multiple winners only happens if there are multiple people bidding the maximum.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

More clam confusion. This from the same post:
 

According to MLBTR, Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker is reporting that NPB officials are planning to accept a Major League Baseball proposal of a $20 million maximum bid and the new posting rules.
The proposal states that should multiple teams submit maximum bids for Japanese players, the team with the lowest winning percentage would gain negotiating rights.

 

Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times detailed further information about the proposal on Twitter earlier this week, saying: “... “If multiple teams make max bid on Japanese player, he decides team with which he’ll negotiate. If adopted, a bit of help for small markets."
 

 
If the 2nd quote is literal, the Japanese player doesn't get to see competing bids, but must choose the team to commence negotiations with. That can't be accurate, so I assume all of the similar quotes I'm seeing really mean, "Max-bid teams will have the opportunity to submit a bid, and then the player chooses..."

 

[Tokyo Sox]

I will say though, given Tanaka's age and how competitive Rakuten is I can definitely see them keeping Tanaka for a few more years before posting him.  He'll still get $20M for them then, and they'll get to have him for a few more years including a title defense.  Not posting him this season doesn't mean they can never post him.

 
He has already played 7 seasons.  The required service time before becoming a FA is 9 years.  If he serves his full 9 years, and isn't under a new contract, then he will be free to walk away and Rakuten will be able to post him or receive any money.  I'm not sure his current contract status; most players will have 2 or 3 contracts during that initial 9 year span.  If the $20mil thing goes through and they do not post him, it will be out of principle and because he may be worth more than that to them over the next 2 years in wins and ticket sales.
 
I emailed an acquaintance at MLB Japan yesterday with the following.  If the final agreement looks anything like this I will lobby very hard for it to be known, mysteriously, as the Ananti System:
 

Make the maximum posting fee around USD 5 million or something super low like that, BUT, every team that submits the max bid has to actually pay the money to the NPB team.  For a guy like Ma-kun, you'd easily get 8 or 10 teams that would be willing to pay 5mil a pop for a shot at the guy.  Not literally a free option but pretty much the closest thing to it.  The player is free to negotiate with all of them.  The winning team's 5 mil does count towards the AAV of whatever the final contract is for luxury tax purposes; the losers' 5mil does not.  So in this little hypothetical:
 
- Rakuten gets 40~50mm
- Lots of MLB teams get a legit shot at signing the guy
- Tanaka gets a real market-value contract
- Any chance of a bad faith negotiation to block other teams is negated
 
You could also possibly put a hard cap on it at, say, $50 million, so if 16 teams all put up 5 mil, instead of them all owing 5, it gets pro-rated down to $3.125mil each.  Or the full 5 for the winner and 3 each for the other 15.  Or whatever.  For example.  If several Japanese teams were willing to accept a $20mil cap, you could probably make this hard cap even lower, which may encourage more MLB teams to participate if they are more likely to hit the cap and get pro-rated down below the $5mil if they lose.
 

 
We'll see what, if anything, he comes back with.

 

[MakMan44]

Japanese teams will be able to set a desired amount for the posting fee up to a maximum of $20MM, reports Mainichi. Once the Japanese team sets the posting fee, it will be made public to all 30 MLB clubs and all teams who tender that figure will be able to negotiate with the player. The Mainichi reports adds the new posting system is expected to go into effect as early as next week and will pave the way for Tanaka to be posted.

 
http://mainichi.jp/english/english/newsselect/news/20131207p2g00m0sp022000c.html

 

[terrisus]

I think I like this idea a lot.  It would be especially interesting if instead of a universal maximum bid, the Japanese team could set the negotiation price for an individual player.  Then they can say, "this guy's worth $50 million to us.  If you want to pay us that just to negotiate, go for it.  Otherwise we'll keep him."  Or they could, depending on the market, decide that if they only ask $5 million to negotiate, that means at least 10 teams will pay it, and they end up with just as much money, but they risk that lower-budget teams won't actually pay to negotiate, because they think they'd lose the negotiation.

 
This would make the most sense to me.
In fact, it makes so much sense to me that it's curious it hasn't seemed to have been considered.
 
EDIT: And I'm 20 minutes late I see.

 

[ArgentinaSOXfan]

This 20M tops thing, plus multiple teams being able to negotiate with the player (given even bids) is terrible.
I guess Yankees and Dodgers love it. 

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

This 20M tops thing, plus multiple teams being able to negotiate with the player (given even bids) is terrible.
I guess Yankees and Dodgers love it.

Well if they care about the cap they won't. The old posting fee .. While potentially excessive - never counted against the luxury tax cap. And because the player had no leverage ,basically had to take what was offered.

Now , the posting fee merely gets you to the dance and there will be a bidding war for the player.. Just like any other free agent. This basically screws the Yankees this year in their pursuit of Tanaka.

 

[Sampo Gida]

 
It's a lot of money, but at the same time... they have a payroll roughly the same as the Houston Astros. If the Astros had the best player in baseball under contract and were defending world series champions would they sell him for $20M?

 
What are the odds an MLB team with a 26 million dollar payroll would be defending champions?
 
Without Tanaka 20 million covers their entire 2014 payroll, and he is a free agent in 2 years anyways. For a team playing without their own stadium they probably could use the money.  No idea what the value of a W is worth in Japan.  Also, with the Yen about 100 instead  of 80 that it was when Darvish was posted, that 20 million is worth about 25 million to the team.
 
http://yakyubaka.com/npb-salaries/2013-rakuten-eagles-salary-report/
 
I doubt Japanese teams ever envisioned posting fees in the 50 million dollar range when they agreed to the system.  Blew everyones mind when Daisuke's posting fee was.

 

[terrisus]

Well, looks like we're going with the "$20 million max bid, and being one of the top bidders gets you into a group contract negotiation"
 
http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/10118679/mlb-nippon-professional-baseball-agree-new-posting-system
 

 
 
Under the new system, the maximum amount MLB teams can bid for a Japanese player will be $20 million. If more than one team submits a $20 million bid, the player can negotiate a contract with any of them.

Players will have a 30-day window to negotiate a contract once a bid has been posted, according to the New York Post. Once an MLB team agrees to a contract with a player, it would then owe the posting bid to the player's Japanese team, according to the Post.

 

[JimD]

This system seems like it will retard the flow of premium younger players.  Rakuten is likely to get $20 million whether they post Tanaka this year or next year - why not get one more year out of him for their own club?

 

[Orel Miraculous]

This system seems like it will retard the flow of premium younger players.  Rakuten is likely to get $20 million whether they post Tanaka this year or next year - why not get one more year out of him for their own club?

 
What flow of premium younger players?  Had a single NPB player ever been posted with less than 7 seasons under their belt under the old system?

 

[mauf]

You can't talk about what would or wouldn't be a good system without knowing what the parties' objectives are. It isn't clear to me what MLB hopes to achieve by changing the rules.

One change being floated is a non-starter: the posting fee can't count as salary for CBT purposes, because the MLBPA will never agree to that. Why would they?

 

[Sampo Gida]

You can't talk about what would or wouldn't be a good system without knowing what the parties' objectives are. It isn't clear to me what MLB hopes to achieve by changing the rules.

One change being floated is a non-starter: the posting fee can't count as salary for CBT purposes, because the MLBPA will never agree to that. Why would they?

 
It does make existing members of the MLBPA who are FA more competitive with imports from Japan.  OTOH, it obviously reduces the amount of money big market teams flirting with the LT threshold have to spend on FA, and puts more smaller market teams in the market for such imports.   Perhaps the latter carries more weight, dunno.
 
 
 

 
What flow of premium younger players?  Had a single NPB player ever been posted with less than 7 seasons under their belt under the old system?

 
Japanese players seem to start earlier  and get posted relatively young.  Tanaka is 25, same age as Darvish was and 1 yr younger than Daisuke when he was posted.   For MLB teams, that's young.  
 
There is obviously less reward for posting elite talent, so I can see some teams perhaps not posting an elite player.  But 20 million is not a small amount in a league where payroll and revenue is 1/4 to 1/5  that of MLB.   Also, many of Japanese teams are owned by large corporations who subsidize teams so as to promote the parent company, and having one of their players make it big in the MLB, which is big in Japan, could be considered good advertising
 
I also wonder if its possible teams could work out side deals with players to get a cut of their future earnings in return for being posted. Such a deal would only be enforceable in Japan and could have nothing to do with MLB and the MLBPA.   Maybe  there is something in the posting agreement which prohibits this.

 

[JimD]

There is obviously less reward for posting elite talent, so I can see some teams perhaps not posting an elite player.  But 20 million is not a small amount in a league where payroll and revenue is 1/4 to 1/5  that of MLB.   Also, many of Japanese teams are owned by large corporations who subsidize teams so as to promote the parent company, and having one of their players make it big in the MLB, which is big in Japan, could be considered good advertising

 
True, but in this case Rakuten will get a $20 million posting fee for Tanaka whether they post him this year or next year.  What is their incentive to give up on this asset one year early?

 

[steveluck7]

 
True, but in this case Rakuten will get a $20 million posting fee for Tanaka whether they post him this year or next year.  What is their incentive to give up on this asset one year early?

I guess it could be similar to players leaving college early vs. staying for a senior season. One more season of injury risk or the potential for your flaws to be exposed.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

 
True, but in this case Rakuten will get a $20 million posting fee for Tanaka whether they post him this year or next year.  What is their incentive to give up on this asset one year early?

 
What Steve7 said, also cash today is always better than cash tomorrow.

 

[nattysez]

Deal is done:  https://twitter.com/DavidWaldstein/status/412693997363417088
 
Current plan as I understand it:
 
NPB club states posting fee.
 
Any MLB team may negotiate with player after they've agreed to pay fee.  Posting/negotiation period is 30 days.
 
If a club agrees to terms with player, they pay the fee.
 
If no club agrees to terms with player, no fee paid to NPB club.
 
I'm surprised the NPB didn't hold out for more.

 

[TomRicardo]

This system really doesn't behoove the teams to post star players until their last year under control.

 

[Sampo Gida]

This system really doesn't behoove the teams to post star players until their last year under control.

 
It does not behoove the player to accept the posting unless the team has at least 2 years control.  Why leave 20 million on the table (posting fee which comes out of the players pocket indirectly) for only 1 year which pays you only 12-15 million more than you would have made in Japan?  Just wait the extra year and be a free agent with no posting fee to retard your earnings.

 

[ToeKneeArmAss]

Deal is done:  https://twitter.com/DavidWaldstein/status/412693997363417088
 
Current plan as I understand it:
 
NPB club states posting fee.
 
Any MLB team may negotiate with player after they've agreed to pay fee.  Posting/negotiation period is 30 days.
 
If a club agrees to terms with player, they pay the fee.
 
If no club agrees to terms with player, no fee paid to NPB club.
 
I'm surprised the NPB didn't hold out for more.

 
Note that release fee cannot exceed $20MM.  So we're kind of where we were.  Does create some drag on JPB/MLB mobility as JPB teams have limited incentive to release stars until late in contract whereas MLB teams have reduced incentive to pay release fees if less time left on contracts.
 
Wonder if Rakuten will post Tanaka under these terms?  I'd wager not.

 

[Nomars Last Twitch]

 
Rakuten Golden Eagles will allow Masahiro Tanaka to be posted after all

Craig Calcaterra
Dec 16, 2013, 4:57 PM EST
 
This morning there was a report that the Rakuten Golden Eagles would try to persuade Masahiro Tanaka to stay in Japan. Now, late this afternoon, comes word that they will grant his wish to be posed after all. The report comes from Sanspo.com, via Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times.

Dylan Hernandez' twitter post:
 
https://twitter.com/dylanohernandez/status/412695419349504000
 
Sanspo: Rakuten owner Hiroshi Mikitani will allow Masahiro Tanaka to come to the major leagues this winter
 
http://www.sanspo.com/baseball/news/20131217/gol13121705070005-n1.html

 

[Cellar-Door]

 
It does not behoove the player to accept the posting unless the team has at least 2 years control.  Why leave 20 million on the table (posting fee which comes out of the players pocket indirectly) for only 1 year which pays you only 12-15 million more than you would have made in Japan?  Just wait the extra year and be a free agent with no posting fee to retard your earnings.

Hit free agency a year earlier? Also with the posting not counting toward the tax I doubt a team would really pay 20M more on the contract. Add in injury concerns and present value versus future value and I doubt anyone would take the chance.

 

[Ananti]

Under these rules there is no reason why any team shoudl bid less than 20 million. They should just get rid of the bidding process altogether and just make the player a FA and stipulate that his club gets an additional $20 million fee  to release him and stop with the charade of a "bidding process".

 

[C4CRVT]

So do I understand it correctly? Any team that matches the 20million (max. which will apply for Tanaka) fee can negotiate with the player for a deal? That's going to drive his MLB contract way, way up. He's essentially a limited FA at that point. How many teams won't be in on that? I'd guess that at least 10 teams would do that.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

But there are players who no one would pay a $20 million posting price (see Okajima, Hideki)

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

But there are players who no one would pay a $20 million posting price (see Okajima, Hideki)

The posting fee is variable .. Set by the Japanese Club .. So if they thought all they could get was 10m that's what they would set

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Agreed.  Which is what I was saying to Ananti.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

C.J. Nitkowski a former MLB pitcher who went over to Japan and pitched a couple seasons there was interviewed on MLB Network and he said that he thought Tanaka was somewhere between Darvish and Matsuzaka in quality of pitching.  He said he thought Tanaka would be a #2 in an MLB rotation.

 

[ForceAtHome]

C.J. Nitkowski a former MLB pitcher who went over to Japan and pitched a couple seasons there was interviewed on MLB Network and he said that he thought Tanaka was somewhere between Darvish and Matsuzaka in quality of pitching.  He said he thought Tanaka would be a #2 in an MLB rotation.

 
Is there any reason that Nitkowski should really be believed here as knowing what he's talking about? I mean, it sounds like a nice comfortable prediction -- not too lofty, but not too pessimistic either. I don't necessarily disagree, I'm just not sure that Nitkowski is the guy I'd be listening to on this.
 
Nitkowski pitched in MLB until 2005, so he was never an MLB pitcher at the same time as Matsuzaka, Darvish, or Tanaka. Nitkowski also pitched in NPB in 2007 and 2008. That means he missed Matsuzaka entirely and they were never pitching on the same continent. During his NPB tenure, Nitkowski would have seen a 20/21-year-old Darvish and an 18/19-year-old Tanaka. I'm not sure how relevant that experience is to a 27-year-old Darvish or 25-year-old Tanaka in different leagues entirely.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

His having been a pitcher in MLB and having seen both MLB and NPB play in person give him some credibility.  I don't know all of his background but he seemed very well spoken and didn't come off as just a hick shootin' from the hip on the issue.  It's far from conclusive but it ain't nothing either.