NBA Top Shot

HowBoutDemSox

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How many people are buying these because they actually like them and want to hold on to them, and how many are buying as pure investment items? There's obviously a middle ground there where you buy it because you like them but would sell once the price is sufficient to justify the loss of the object they enjoy having, but if the vast majority of buyers are purchasing them solely to try and sell for a profit, then that starts to look a lot like a bubble, no?
 

scottyno

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Got about 49k, I don't think there's any way these packs still don't turn a decent profit even if they aren't great players, the last few rare drops weren't either and those still easily sold for over pack value just based on scarcity
 

djbayko

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Welp, fate made the decision for me. I had decided last night that I was going to buy a pack for the fuck of it. But then I just went to stand in line for Moderna #2 and totally forgot about the drop until now.
 

djbayko

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Got about 49k, I don't think there's any way these packs still don't turn a decent profit even if they aren't great players, the last few rare drops weren't either and those still easily sold for over pack value just based on scarcity
I think the big difference here is the relative dearth of names that are even remotely exciting, and the market is much different now than it was for those past limited drops so I'd expect the no-names to be closer to the $75-100 range. I was really on the fence after researching it last night but decided to go for it because maybe I'd get one of those few star players and/or hit the serial number lottery. But I think the vast majority of packs will lose.
 

nattysez

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How many people are buying these because they actually like them and want to hold on to them, and how many are buying as pure investment items? There's obviously a middle ground there where you buy it because you like them but would sell once the price is sufficient to justify the loss of the object they enjoy having, but if the vast majority of buyers are purchasing them solely to try and sell for a profit, then that starts to look a lot like a bubble, no?
The bubble has mostly burst the past few days. A lot of accounts are down significantly, and today's rare pack was the first-ever where you were not guaranteed to make your money back by selling the moments in the pack. As I've said a few times in the thread, there's likely one last bubble/significant market catalyst to come -- whenever Top Shot starts marketing itself heavily and they get a big influx of users. Top Shot's trying to encourage users to use Showcases to display their moments and demonstrate the collectable element of these moments.

Got about 49k, I don't think there's any way these packs still don't turn a decent profit even if they aren't great players, the last few rare drops weren't either and those still easily sold for over pack value just based on scarcity
My pack was meh except for a 200-serial Oladipo, which may be enough to get me to a positive ROI on the pack. Livetoken (FWIW) says that my Oladipo's FMV is $98, which combined with my five $4-ish moments would leave me about $30 in the red. I'm pretty confident I'll ultimately do better than $98, but we'll see.
 

scottyno

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My pack was meh except for a 200-serial Oladipo, which may be enough to get me to a positive ROI on the pack. Livetoken (FWIW) says that my Oladipo's FMV is $98, which combined with my five $4-ish moments would leave me about $30 in the red. I'm pretty confident I'll ultimately do better than $98, but we'll see.
Yeah, I got a bad number naz reid, one of if not the worst of the rares, a common luka, which is nice but still a common and all of those have crashed lately, and 3 near min value commons, so we'll see what happens, I'm guessing I'll end up pretty close to even if I wait it out since the reid isn't in a challenge yet and I expect the luka to go up some because it's luka.
 

Batman Likes The Sox

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My approach with this at the moment is to mostly buy and hold, probably for a very long time. Maybe that nets me zero in the end, but I doubt it.

I enjoy getting moments of players I like, mostly Celtics, occasionally other players I like to watch and think are HOF caliber but are undervalued like Westbrook.

I got lucky with this pack, I got the Anthony Edwards which is part of the challenge. Sold it last night for $300. I hardly ever sell but I don't care about this challenge and if I really want the Edwards (which I probably don't) I think I'll be able to buy it back (with a better serial #, mine was way up in the 1700s) for under $100 at some point post-challenge.

Probably what I'll do instead is use that money to buy more Celtics moments that I actually want to hold on to, maybe something in series 1 if I can swing it. Or maybe the Zion from the Throwdowns drop.

Prices are down in the marketplace but not "crash" down I don't think. Outside of the wild swings of the challenge moments as they enter and exit challenge status, it's not like I can wander in and suddenly get series 1 guys or superstars for half price. Maybe of peak, I wasn't paying attention that closely, I mean over the last month or two of prices.

I guess I look at this all this way, as someone who has collected stuff over three decades like comics, cards, etc, and has sold at the absolute wrong times and the definite right times, and bought the wrong stuff and the right stuff, mostly because I was buying what I liked -- I think it's unlikely that digital collecting goes away. It will probably have popularity peaks and valleys over many years. But let's say Tatum has a good career and remains popular. Will more than 20,000 people be interested in an early Celtics Tatum moment in 20 years after he's retired? Yes, probably. Same way lots of people would want a Papi rookie and we'd all be impressed and think it was cool in the cards thread.

I still think the real value here will also when they figure out how to go back to Jordan moments and the like. Think about how those packs would sell. Or if you had a cool black and white Bill Russell moment or something.

TL;DR to me Top Shot is best approached as use the least money possible to get players that you like and want to hold long term and eventually sell if you feel like it, years from now.

Somebody necro this in a decade and see how I did.
 

djbayko

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Since I forgot about this drop, all I got was a common pack. I popped a Luka and figured I got lucky. Then I looked at the current market price. If I sell now, I’ll barely pay for my pack, which is crazy. Might as well just hold onto that long term.

I do agree that these have to have more value in the distant future if you can hold onto HOF player types. But I think that’s a long ways off with more dips in between.TopShots is incentivized to just continue flooding the market because it’s free money. It’ll take a while for popularity to make up for that.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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For those so inclined, before today's drop there will be some kind of interactive trivia game at 1pm EST to win packs.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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For those so inclined, before today's drop there will be some kind of interactive trivia game at 1pm EST to win packs.
Some details for those interested. Gotta enter the waiting room to play the trivia game. : "Please note that Trivia will only be accessible once collectors enter the waiting room so today’s game will only be a available to collectors that have pre-registered for today’s pack release (Release 34)"

-questions will be multiple choice and NBA-related
- there will be a maximum of 25 questions (but may be lowered based on available time before the queue opens)
- prizes will be base packs from previous releases that have been held back for community events (among other purposes)
- all collectors will be given 25 pts to start and can rate their confidence in their answer by risking up to 5 pts per question
- winners will be determined by the most pts at the end of the session
 

djbayko

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Trivia. LOL. There's no way they're going to get me to actually wait in line. Just send me an email when it's my turn. Thanks.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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Trivia. LOL. There's no way they're going to get me to actually wait in line. Just send me an email when it's my turn. Thanks.
It actually ran pretty smoothly and wasn't too bad. I came no where close to the top 25. Going to need my friend Google handy next time to stand a chance.
 

djbayko

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It actually ran pretty smoothly and wasn't too bad. I came no where close to the top 25. Going to need my friend Google handy next time to stand a chance.
I'm just being a smart ass. If it's fun for you, then great. My assessment is based on the fact that you're competing against thousands also armed with Google so the expectation of winning is low + the fact that I have other work I can be doing for profit during that time.

What are the prizes? Any Rare or Legendary packs?
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I'm just being a smart ass. If it's fun for you, then great. My assessment is based on the fact that you're competing against thousands also armed with Google so the expectation of winning is low + the fact that I have other work I can be doing for profit during that time.

What are the prizes? Any Rare or Legendary packs?
Oh your assessment is not wrong. It is pretty much a waste of time. I was in the middle of a meeting for work listening to an update on a project that doesn't directly involve me, so I figured I'd check it out and update the thread. It wasn't a complete disaster, like I was half expecting.
 

CoffeeNerdness

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https://www.sportico.com/law/analysis/2021/nba-top-shot-lawsuit-1234629839/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

A new lawsuit charges that the sale of NBA Top Shot “Moments” violates the federal Securities Act of 1933, a law designed to both safeguard investors in the purchase of publicly offered securities and deter fraudulent acts in the marketing of those securities. Dapper Labs, a Vancouver-based blockchain company that has partnered with the NBA, and its CEO, Roham Gharegozlou, are accused of illegally selling unregistered securities. The company, however, has a number of defenses that it can and likely will offer in future court filings.
 
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bandito0

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Is anyone sitting through this slog of a queue?

I got 82116 in the queue and have moved to 72645 since 5:00 EST. I wonder what happened that caused that delay.
 

changer591

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I am in it and with 100k packs left, I had 160k or so ahead of me, but it looks like checking in later paid off as I am now in line to get a pack.
 

djbayko

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I was out shopping today and didn't know about this drop. Joined the drop at 3:56 PM (13 minutes ago) and got the email notification that it was my turn 7 minutes later.

The fat, late bird got a worm.
 

djbayko

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I don't understand why they don't package these moments like baseball cards, where they have rare / parallel moments randomly inserted into packs so that there is the chance of catching a big score, even in the lower tier packs. I think that would make them much more attractive and fun than they are now.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I don't understand why they don't package these moments like baseball cards, where they have rare / parallel moments randomly inserted into packs so that there is the chance of catching a big score, even in the lower tier packs. I think that would make them much more attractive and fun than they are now.
I feel like I kind of assumed they were doing so already, seems like a very obvious feature.
 

djbayko

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I feel like I kind of assumed they were doing so already, seems like a very obvious feature.
Nope. You know exactly what you are getting in every pack except for which players (and which serial numbers). If the pack contains a guaranteed rare card, the retail price is jacked up accordingly.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Nope. You know exactly what you are getting in every pack except for which players (and which serial numbers). If the pack contains a guaranteed rare card, the retail price is jacked up accordingly.
Just went down a quick rabbit hole on this and apparently they cannot do so because of something called "loot box laws" in some countries which is, apparently, akin to gambling.

Psychologically speaking, not having the ability to use some kind of variable reinforcement is a going to be a hindrance to long-term user retention.
 

scottyno

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I don't understand why they don't package these moments like baseball cards, where they have rare / parallel moments randomly inserted into packs so that there is the chance of catching a big score, even in the lower tier packs. I think that would make them much more attractive and fun than they are now.
There are rare moments inserted into the lower tier packs, they just call them limited edition instead of rare, but it's the same thing
 

djbayko

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There are rare moments inserted into the lower tier packs, they just call them limited edition instead of rare, but it's the same thing
Yeah, that's not exactly what I'm talking about. They're never going to have the same impact as parallels/inserts. But I suppose this may be their chosen workaround to the loot box laws JZ discovered.

Also, this is tangential, but my understanding is that the "Limited Edition" designation doesn't necessarily mean that it's rare. It only means that the mint count has been finalized. I have several LE moments of 35,000.
 
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scottyno

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Yeah, that's not exactly what I'm talking about. They're never going to have the same impact as parallels/inserts. But I suppose this may be their chosen workaround to the loot box laws JZ discovered.

Also, this is tangential, but my understanding is that the "Limited Edition" designation doesn't necessarily mean that it's rare. It only means that the mint count has been finalized. I have several LE moments of 35,000.
There are moments in these packs that have a similar mint count to those you consider "rare". They're much rarer in these than almost any insert in a baseball card pack, so I'm not sure what you're talking about if you don't consider a few thousand out of 500k moments to be rare.
 

djbayko

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There are moments in these packs that have a similar mint count to those you consider "rare". They're much rarer in these than almost any insert in a baseball card pack, so I'm not sure what you're talking about if you don't consider a few thousand out of 500k moments to be rare.
I understand this. I still contend that having parallel / inserts rather than cards that are still part of the base set would be much more impactful from a marketing (and potentially, value) perspective. Not only does it more explicitly distinguish the rare cards, but it allows them to have coverage across a bunch of star players too, as opposed to what they have now.

But the idea is moot if they're not legally allowed to do it in some geographies.
 
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nattysez

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TS kicked off a playoff marketing push -- you can get $16 added to your Dapper balance if you're a current user and show that you quote-tweeted a highlight this weekend with the #nbatopshotthis hashtag and up to $50 if you start an account and buy something on the MP.

I've definitely seen an improvement in the prices of some of my holdings this weekend.
 

nattysez

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You can reserve a $14 playoff pack for a drop next Friday. I suspect you will not be able to make your $ back in the short-term with this pack.

I haven't posted on TS lately because there wasn't much to say. The market has been on a steady decline for months and TS made mistake after mistake.

However, they put out a heartening blog post today that suggests they're getting their act together and starting to act like a real company, which may mean things improve next season. I'm very cautiously optimistic.

https://blog.nbatopshot.com/posts/collector-upgrades
 

djbayko

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Collector Score requirement for the next Premium pack drop is 2,500. I have 41 moments and a score of 588. Womp womp.

There are bonus points for marketplace $ spend, but I'm pretty sure that I'm not even going to be close.
 

nattysez

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A combination of the collector score requirement and a good Office Hours by the CEO has lit the market aflame. I was looking at a Durant yesterday for $160 that's now selling for over $300.

Since it's not clear what the collector score requirements will be going forward, there may be a sell-off on Monday after the pack drop as people take profits.
 

djbayko

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I've barely been paying attention to TopShot lately. Today I noticed there is a $79 rare pack release called "And Then There Were Four" which I'm eligible for. It says the drop is tomorrow at 1 pm eastern, but the site says "SOLD OUT". That doesn't make sense. Can anyone explain what is going on?

https://nbatopshot.com/listings/pack/3e30dfec-949c-4807-bd6c-3da61c3ce833

Edit: And of course, right after I post this, the site no longer says sold out.
 

changer591

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I didn't luck out on this drop...was about 2000 left before it sold out. At least they are giving casual collectors a chance, even if it's very very low.
 

scottyno

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@scottyno What kind of moment did they hand out to you tonight at Summer League?
Don't know what it will be yet, but each of the last 3 days you could pre-order a moment that would end up being from one of that days summer league games, and you could buy up to 10 of the moment for $5 each, and they were only sold by going to a summer league day and buying them from the topshot kiosk. There was no limit on how many they made, it was just however many people paid for, first 2 days they ended up making between 2 and 3k total and as of now they're selling on the marketplace for between $70 and $80. I think they've already said the 3 will eventually be part of a summer challenge with the next set of moments they launch.

You also got your choice of either a free pack (no idea of what, I haven't got it yet) or a tshirt with any purchase. Line was pretty long, took about an hour to get through, but other than that was super easy.
 

djbayko

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Don't know what it will be yet, but each of the last 3 days you could pre-order a moment that would end up being from one of that days summer league games, and you could buy up to 10 of the moment for $5 each, and they were only sold by going to a summer league day and buying them from the topshot kiosk. There was no limit on how many they made, it was just however many people paid for, first 2 days they ended up making between 2 and 3k total and as of now they're selling on the marketplace for between $70 and $80. I think they've already said the 3 will eventually be part of a summer challenge with the next set of moments they launch.

You also got your choice of either a free pack (no idea of what, I haven't got it yet) or a tshirt with any purchase. Line was pretty long, took about an hour to get through, but other than that was super easy.
Well, hopefully you get a Cade.
 

scottyno

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Well, hopefully you get a Cade.
I think they said they're saving people that haven't had a moment before for next season, so it won't be Cade, they may have even announced already who the moment of the day was, I'm not sure. I'm guessing whoever it is the price will settle in to the same range as the other 2 since people will either want all of them or none of them at those prices. Pritchard or Nesmith would be cool since they both had big games, but I don't know if I'd keep one anyway even if it were one of them.

edit: Bol Bol moment, which is neat, but there were also a lot more people who got it than got either of the first 2 days, which is not so neat, especially since there probably aren't too many people who are interested in a day 3 moment but not also days 1 and 2, so the price is going to be a decent amount lower
 
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scottyno

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WNBA drops begin today for anyone interested.
And prices for these are kind of ridiculous, $9 common drop and the cheapest any wnba moment is now is currently $13, and that's even after the market dropped some from last night. If anyone bought a pack they should probably either buy 2 more wnba moments to do the challenge or sell them all while the market is high.
 

scottyno

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I’m thinking it’s a combination of everyone trying to get to 5 for the challenge as well as these being the first-ever moments of some likely HOF players.
Agreed, but there will be several more drops of these same moments of these same players probably in the next few weeks, so if you're buying them to hold because they're HOFers it doesn't make much sense to buy now
 

Batman Likes The Sox

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I'm imagining we'll see more of these same players, but not the same moments unless I'm missing something - they're all LE of 11,250 and it looks like all of them have 9,110 in circulation with 2,140 not for sale (presumably promos and such).

So for example, if you want the Sue Bird first Top Shot moment which is also her 3,000th assist, pretty much all the options are out there, with the caveat that the price might dip some after the challenge ends and more people look to sell.

I was pretty lucky with the pack I grabbed to get two Diana Taurasi moments, one of which I flipped for a couple other ones I wanted. Not bad for the $9.