NBA Standings Watch

[Eddie Jurak]

So a few things either locked or got limited with tonight's results.
CHI is 6th (might already have been)
Raptors can no longer finish below 5th. They could still finish 4th if they win their final game and PHI loses to both IND and DET.
PHI can no longer finish 2nd. They can finish anywhere from 3rd to 5th depending on their results and BOS/TOR results.
MIL can no longer finish 4th. They can finish 2nd with a win or BOS loss, 3rd with a loss and a BOS win.

So basically the EAST (non-play in) shakes out like this:
1. MIA
2. MIL w/ a win or a BOS loss, BOS with a win and MIL loss
3. MIL w/ a loss and BOS win, BOS w/ a win and MIL win or a loss and at least 1 PHI loss, PHI with 2 wins and a BOS loss
4. BOS w/ a loss and 2 PHI wins, PHI w/ a BOS win or a PHI loss and TOR loss, TOR w/ a win and 2 PHI losses
5. TOR w/ a loss or any PHI win
6. CHI

Play-in is still a mess but:
BKN is almost certainly finishing 7 or 8, and CAN'T finish 10, but there is a way to finish 9.
Cavs have inside track at 7 or 8, but can finish 9 or 10 in multiple scenarios
Hawks have 4 of 14 scenarios where they finish 8, rest are 9/10 CANNOT finish 7
Hornets have 1 of 14 where they finish 7, two where they finish 8, rest are 9/10.

So if you really want to see BKN play the 9/10 you need.... The Hawks to beat the Rockets, The Cavs to beat the Bucks, the Hornets to beat the Wiz, and the Nets to somehow lose to the tanking
Pacers.

EDIT- there is actually a 2nd way for BKN to finish 9, same as above but Hawks lose, tiebreaker goes to Hornets there too.

This afternoon (1 PM), Indiana is at Philly. If Philly loses, then Boston can no longer finish 4th, no matter what Boston does vs. Memphis. If Philly wins, they still have a chance to overtake Boston and finish third.

Tomorrow afternoon (3:30PM), Milwaukee is at Cleveland. If Milwaukee wins, they clinch the 2 seed. If Milwaukee loses, the Celtics will pass them with a win. Also, Brooklyn visits Indy. If Brooklyn wins, they clinch 7th; if they lose things are more complicated but a Cleveland win would drop Brooklyn to 8th or lower.

Tomorrow evening (7 PM), the Celtics are at Memphis and Detroit is at Philly.
-----------------------
I think the best seed is #3 (Chicago) and then Celtics are unfortunately going to land at #2 (probably Brooklyn) or #4 (Toronto).

Two wins from Philly would mean that the Celtics would need to win to stay ahead of Philly, and Philly's 2 games are easy. So Philly will win out unless the standings are set before they play on Sunday.

Then there is Milwaukee at Cleveland. Milwaukee cliniches the #2 seed with a win, but the Bucks might prefer to lose and give Boston a chance to take #2. I think the Bucks will rest starters and lose to a Cleveland team that is trying to Clinch home court for the play in. At the same time, Brooklyn is at Indy. If Brooklyn wins, they get #7, if Brooklyn loses, they get #8 or lower. A Brooklyn loss makes the 2 seed look a little better, but Brooklyn will win.

That brings it to tomorrow evening. If Philly loses, the Celtics are playing for #2 (with a win) or #3 (with a loss); if Philly wins, they Celtics are playing for #2 (with a win) or #4 (with a loss).

I think Celtics will probably win tomorrow and wind up with the #2 seed and likely Brooklyn matchup.

 

[88 MVP]

Why would we expect Milwaukee to take their foot off the gas and leave the 2 seed open for Boston? If Milwaukee wanted to maneuver for the 3 seed, they could have just rested Giannis, Jrue, etc the other night

 

[128]

Ja is listed as questionable, but otherwise all of Memphis' big guns appear to be available for tonite's game against the Pelicans. Not sure what approach Memphis will take tomorrow nite.

 

[lovegtm]

Milwaukee had the opportunity to rest guys and avoid Miami last year. The team (from what I recall) had a meeting and decided "nope, we want the Heat, bring it on." Their courage was rewarded with a championship. The fact that they played their starters against Boston and played them heavy minutes (39 and 38 for Giannis and Middleton iirc) suggests they feel similarly this year: get the best seed they can, and play whomever the opponent is.

That said, if the Bucks do lose against Cleveland, I'd prefer the Celtics rest and let Memphis take the win. Chicago -> Mil/Brooklyn is probably the best path given TL's injury, but Toronto -> Miami is also totally fine. Miami is probably a better matchup than Milwaukee, and I just don't see how Toronto will score against the Cs.

 

[Obscure Name]

No help from Indy today.

 

[terrynever]

Final day: No. 3 seed at stake. Boston at Memphis and Philly hosts Detroit. Pistons beat Philly last week but not likely to happen again. Ja Morant supposed to play for first time in three weeks today. Will he play tomorrow?

 

[Jimbodandy]

Final day: No. 3 seed at stake. Boston at Memphis and Philly hosts Detroit. Pistons beat Philly last week but not likely to happen again. Ja Morant supposed to play for first time in three weeks today. Will he play tomorrow?

Given the choice, I'd rather play Chicago just because they look so bad. Do you care? I presume you would too, because of MT.

edit: I realize that this is not consistent with my rants about putting the vax rumors to bed, but Toronto is 8-2 in their last 10, and Chicago is 3-7. And we just handed Chicago their ass a few days ago.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Ok:
Philly is locked at 3-4
Bucks locked 2-3
Celtics can be 2-4

Bucks have to decide if they want the 2 or to rest and let it ride. If they lose, things get really interesting at 7 PM.

Head to Head

Bos over Bucks
Bos over Sixers
Bucks over Sixers

3-way

Bos
Bucks
Sixers

If the Bucks lose, Celtics have choice to lose and probably take 4, or try to win and take 2. Hmmmmm. If Bucks win, you try to win and take 3 clearly.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Final day: No. 3 seed at stake. Boston at Memphis and Philly hosts Detroit. Pistons beat Philly last week but not likely to happen again. Ja Morant supposed to play for first time in three weeks today. Will he play tomorrow?

I can’t imagine him playing both games or really even in one…..but the team has said they are considering running him out there. It would be completely illogical from a return/playoff prep standpoint for him to play B2B coming off a knee injury so it’s fair to rule him out tomorrow if he is a go tonight. Aside from him, I’d expect all the Grizz regulars to sit tomorrow especially if they play tonight.

 

[terrynever]

Given the choice, I'd rather play Chicago just because they look so bad. Do you care? I presume you would too, because of MT.

edit: I realize that this is not consistent with my rants about putting the vax rumors to bed, but Toronto is 8-2 in their last 10, and Chicago is 3-7. And we just handed Chicago their ass a few days ago.

Yeah, no question you want the 3 seed. But Sixers always do things the hard way. They should just tank tomorrow night.

 

[NYCSox]

I can’t imagine him playing both games or really even in one…..but the team has said they are considering running him out there. It would be completely illogical from a return/playoff prep standpoint for him to play B2B coming off a knee injury so it’s fair to rule him out tomorrow if he is a go tonight. Aside from him, I’d expect all the Grizz regulars to sit tomorrow especially if they play tonight.

Regular starters for Memphis tonight.

 

[RedOctober3829]

View: https://twitter.com/DariusJoshuaTV/status/1512908065770721289

 

[PedroKsBambino]

We're getting Kyrie aren't we...

 

[jmcc5400]

Looks like a 2 seed. Fine.

 

[Auger34]

It’s incredibly strange that the Bucks decided to play everyone on the second night of a back to back but now decide to sit everyone…

I’d honestly prefer 4 to 2, I think we advance to the 2nd round either way but the Nets series would be tougher and then we would have the Bucks, the one team I would not want to face

 

[Ed Hillel]

I…have no idea what the better play is here. Seems pretty close. All things equal, maybe side with caution and rest players?

 

[NomarsFool]

First playoff game isn’t until Friday, so rest (aside from avoiding injury) doesn’t seem too critical.

 

[Ale Xander]

First playoff game isn’t until Friday, so rest (aside from avoiding injury) doesn’t seem too critical.

Saturday

 

[128]

It would be hilarious if Brooklyn loses its first play-in game and ends up as the No. 8 seed. Unlikely, but that's my dream scenario.

 

[Ale Xander]

It would be hilarious if Brooklyn loses its first play-in game and ends up as the No. 8 seed. Unlikely, but that's my dream scenario.

My dream scenario is they lose the next one too

 

[Toe Nash]

Through 6 games, they've posted a 4-2 clip. Barring something crazy, they'll be 4-3 by the end of the night.

Not an ideal outcome to wrap up the regular season, but shouldn't have surprised anyone.

Rob got hurt 3 days after your post which had a little bit of an effect on how they played. Are you really patting yourself on the back for this? Hilarious

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Rob got hurt 3 days after your post which had a little bit of an effect on how they played. Are you really patting yourself on the back for this? Hilarious

You think they were running the table with him? Hilarious.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

You think they were running the table with him? Hilarious.

I think you have an obvious focus on the negative.

They are 3-3 in the past 6, having lost the three by a total of 17 points. Rob missed all 6 of these games, obviously. In addition to him, they were missing Brown, Tatum, Horford during the OT loss to the Raptors and were missing Tatum and Horford during the loss to the Bucks. (Bucks and Raptors were not missing anyone significant in eithe game).

Maybe Tatum, Horford, and Rob are, as a group, responsible for a lot of the success the Celtics have had this year? Maybe Brown is too? Just a thought.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

I think you have an obvious focus on the negative.

They are 3-3 in the past 6, having lost the three by a total of 17 points. Rob missed all 6 of these games, obviously. In addition to him, they were missing Brown, Tatum, Horford during the OT loss to the Raptors and were missing Tatum and Horford during the loss to the Bucks. (Bucks and Raptors were not missing anyone significant in eithe game).

Maybe Tatum, Horford, and Rob are, as a group, responsible for a lot of the success the Celtics have had this year? Maybe Brown is too? Just a thought.

I'm not sure why you think I'm being negative. The team had a killer stretch. Ime said around the same time that he would rest guys appropriately on back to backs, but was ramping JTs minutes during games to get used to the playoff grind. It was fair to assume then that seeding wasn't as much of a priority as health was.

There's nothing embarrassing about going 5-3 during a stretch with 2 back to backs, a bunch of top teams, and the toughest win% of any team in the league. Especially when the team is focusing on balancing health and rest, and that's true regardless of RW3.

If anything, I think the outcome has been good. If they win, they went 5-3 as I predicated. I have no idea what ToeNash is salty about.

 

[Toe Nash]

You think they were running the table with him? Hilarious.

They definitely may have, considering after Rob got hurt they kind of packed it in and didn't go close to all-out, and they were still in all three games they lost. But I didn't make a prediction, I just said they had a good shot at #1 and the point of my post was that the schedule wasn't as tough as SoS made it seem because the Bulls were playing poorly (true, and they weren't a challenge) and the Grizzlies game wasn't going to matter for Memphis (true).

Two weeks later you quoted yourself and tagged me as well which made it seem like you were patting yourself on the back for your post. If that wasn't your intent then fine.

 

[the moops]

OK, so looks like we can write down a MIL loss. No Giannis, Middleton, Lopez, Connaughton, etc.

So, I think I have this right (assuming a MIL loss - they are losing to CLE 18-40 currently)

Celtics win, doesn't matter what PHI does in their game. Celts would be the 2, MIL the 3, PHI the 4.

Celtics lose, PHI wins. MIL gets the 2, PHI the 3, BOS the 4.

Celtics lose, PHI loses. MIL gets the 2, BOS the 3, PHI the 4.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

OK, so looks like we can write down a MIL loss. No Giannis, Middleton, Lopez, Connaughton, etc.

So, I think I have this right (assuming a MIL loss - they are losing to CLE 18-40 currently)

Celtics win, doesn't matter what PHI does in their game. Celts would be the 2, MIL the 3, PHI the 4.

Celtics lose, PHI wins. MIL gets the 2, PHI the 3, BOS the 4.

Celtics lose, PHI loses. MIL gets the 2, BOS the 3, PHI the 4.

I think the C's are just going to win and take the #2.

 

[terrynever]

Grizz resting starters.

https://www.commercialappeal.com/story/sports/nba/grizzlies/2022/04/10/memphis-grizzlies-sit-ja-morant-four-starters-vs-boston-celtics/9533698002/

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

I think the C's are just going to win and take the #2.

Absolutely. Full speed ahead, bring on anyone.

 

[ugmo33]

Absolutely. Full speed ahead, bring on anyone.

I hope so...with the Grizzlies resting this could be a hard game to lose...and a really embarrassing game to watch if the C's are trying not to win

 

[k-factory]

Is it just me or did the NBA move a bunch of afternoon games to 7pm? I thought the Philly game was supposed to be earlier

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Is it just me or did the NBA move a bunch of afternoon games to 7pm? I thought the Philly game was supposed to be earlier

Today’s games many were Time TBA and were set early last week

 

[Imbricus]

Pacers showing a little life ... please ... please.

 

[BaseballJones]

So if Brooklyn and Boston both win it’s those two in the 2/7 matchup (assuming Brooklyn wins the play-in game), right?

 

[JohnnyTheBone]

Pacers showing a little life ... please ... please.

"I got this." ~ TJ McConnell

 

[RorschachsMask]

View: https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania/status/1513263436679032840?s=20&t=eUXwzX4AZe2c6nMpYxHPpw

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

They definitely may have, considering after Rob got hurt they kind of packed it in and didn't go close to all-out, and they were still in all three games they lost. But I didn't make a prediction, I just said they had a good shot at #1 and the point of my post was that the schedule wasn't as tough as SoS made it seem because the Bulls were playing poorly (true, and they weren't a challenge) and the Grizzlies game wasn't going to matter for Memphis (true).

Two weeks later you quoted yourself and tagged me as well which made it seem like you were patting yourself on the back for your post. If that wasn't your intent then fine.

Nope. Just quoted you because you were the only person to reply to me

 

[Imbricus]

Actually though, during Pacers game, they just said that even if Brooklyn loses, and Hawks and Hornets win, Nets only fall to eight. So that doesn't really help.

 

[m0ckduck]

Pacers showing a little life ... please ... please.

Tied! Hornets a few points ahead of the Wizards. Meanwhile, the four teams combined have scored about 400 points and we’re not yet in the 4th quarter of either game.

 

[NavaHo]

There's something paradoxical about rooting against the Nets here. If they lose to the Pacers and they can't get the 7 seed, great, the Cs avoid them, but if the Pacers can beat them on the road, what the hell am I worried about anyway?

EDIT: forgot they win a 3-way tie but my point stands.

 

[m0ckduck]

Actually though, during Pacers game, they just said that even if Brooklyn loses, and Hawks and Hornets win, Nets only fall to eight. So that doesn't really help.

Not true, according to ESPN tiebreaker article I just read. Charlotte owns head-to-head vs Brooklyn.

 

[Imbricus]

Charlotte owns head-to-head vs Brooklyn.

Yes! There's hope ...

 

[Royal Reader]

Actually though, during Pacers game, they just said that even if Brooklyn loses, and Hawks and Hornets win, Nets only fall to eight. So that doesn't really help.

Eh, still want miles put on those guys. Playing in a road arena makes it more likely the 7/8 game is at least competitive.

 

[Royal Reader]

Not true, according to ESPN tiebreaker article I just read. Charlotte owns head-to-head vs Brooklyn.

I think the post you were replying to only referred to the three-way tie. Charlotte has H2H over Brooklyn, but ATL has division record breaker over Charlotte, and Brooklyn has H2H over Atlanta. Every source I can find has that resolving in BRK's favor in the 3-team scenario. (I think, but am not certain, that it's because they break the in-division tie first, for Atlanta, then the Atlanta-Brooklyn tie for Brooklyn).

 

[Eddie Jurak]

The Celtics dilemma is this: The best first round seeds the Celtics could get is 3. But...

If Philly beats Detroit, then Boston gets #2 with a win and #4 with a loss.

If Philly loses to Detrois, then Boston gets #2 with a win and #3 with a loss.

But Boston and Philly are playing at the same time, and Philly is sitting Harden and Embiid.

To maneuver into #3 they need to tank and risk #4.

I think it is easier to just win and take #2.

And #2 comes with one distinct advantage - if the Celtics reach the second round, they will have home court vs Milwaukee.

 

[m0ckduck]

I think the post you were replying to only referred to the three-way tie. Charlotte has H2H over Brooklyn, but ATL has division record breaker over Charlotte, and Brooklyn has H2H over Atlanta. Every source I can find has that resolving in BRK's favor in the 3-team scenario. (I think, but am not certain, that it's because they break the in-division tie first, for Atlanta, then the Atlanta-Brooklyn tie for Brooklyn).

Hmm. From https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33702772/nba-seeding-play-implications-regular-season-final-weekend :

• If Cleveland wins, Brooklyn loses and both Atlanta and Charlotte win, it will be Cleveland seventh, Charlotte eighth, Brooklyn ninth and Atlanta 10th.

 

[Royal Reader]

The Celtics dilemma is this: The best first round seeds the Celtics could get is 3. But...

If Philly beats Detroit, then Boston gets #2 with a win and #4 with a loss.

If Philly loses to Detrois, then Boston gets #2 with a win and #3 with a loss.

But Boston and Philly are playing at the same time, and Philly is sitting Harden and Embiid.

To maneuver into #3 they need to tank and risk #4.

I think it is easier to just win and take #2.

And #2 comes with one distinct advantage - if the Celtics reach the second round, they will have home court vs Milwaukee.

Agreed, although Philly are sitting Embiid and Harden. I haven't followed the race to the bottom that thoroughly - does Detroit have incentive to lose, or it it locked into its lottery position?

 

[SteveF]

3 way tiebreaker goes to highest winning percentage against tied teams. Brooklyn is 3-3. Charlotte is 4-3. Atlanta is 3-4. Neither Charlotte nor Atlanta is a division leader, so that tiebreaker doesn't apply.

 

[Royal Reader]

Hmm. From https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33702772/nba-seeding-play-implications-regular-season-final-weekend :

Ed: Buck Holtz.

 

[SteveF]

Edit: Joke ruined!

It's all mooted anyway. Nets are going to beat the Pacers barring some epic collapse.