yeah, that's why I was saying up thread that the ATL game is sneaky key, ATL wins that and it gets interesting.
CHA locked up the H2H tiebreaker w/ BKN, BKN has locked in H2H vs. ATL. If BKN wins they lock in the 3 way tiebreaker, if they lose CHA gets it.
BKN has the easiest schedule: ATL, HOU, NYK, CLE, IND
CHA has PHI, ORL, CHI, MIA, WAS
ATL has BKN, TOR, WAS, MIA, HOU
Lot of opportunity for MIA in particular to take a game off. BRK can likely lose one, but it being to the Hawks isn't ideal, as the MFE gets smaller.
So ATL beats BRK and CHA loses, leaving remaining schedules as (including CHI and CLE as that may impact whether teams try or not):
BKN has the easiest schedule: HOU (4.5), @ NYK (4.6), CLE (4.8), and IND (4.10)
CHA has @ MIA (4.5), ORL (4.7), @ CHI (4.8), and WAS (4.10)
ATL has @ TOR (4.5), WAS (4.6), @ MIA (4.8), and @ HOU (4.10)
CLE has PHI (4.3), @ ORL (4.5), @ BRK (4.8), and MIL (4.10)
CHI has MIL (4.5), BOS (4.6), CHA (4.8), and @ MIN (4.10)
TOR has MIA (4.3), ATL (4.5), PHI (4.7), HOU (4.8), and @NYK (4.10)
If BRK wins out, the key game for ATL will be the TOR game on 4.5. If they can win that, I can see MIA sitting players on that 4.8 game just to give ATL a fighting chance of finishing above BRK.
Similarly, I'm sure MIA is thinking about sitting out players against CHA on 4.5 for the same reason. That's a more difficult decision but if I were MIA, I'd absolutely make that a rest day as their seeding isn't nearly as important and making BRK play an extra game for the chance to get into the playoffs IMO.
If CLE loses to PHI today, CHI will have 2.5 games on them which means their remaining schedule - particularly the game against CHA on 4.8 - may not be meaningful unless they really want to jump TOR for the 5 seed.
And we'll know who is vax'd on MIA, ATL, and PHI after this week since they play in TOR.
Will be an interesting week of hoops.