You guys don’t want to say what’s obvious to the rest of us. Boston has been the best team in the East for two months now. They play tough defense. Best point differential in the East. Tatum is on a roll. Just pencil them into the finals.
NBA Standings Watch
- Thread starter lexrageorge
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Terry's playing the reverse mojo card.
IMO anyone of about 6 or 7 teams (including the current 8th ranked team) could win the East.
Though I do really really like the Celts D in a 7-game series.
IMO anyone of about 6 or 7 teams (including the current 8th ranked team) could win the East.
Though I do really really like the Celts D in a 7-game series.
Sort of but I also believe in defense and free throw shooting in playoffs. 76ers only have one of those two. Boston has both.
It’s starting to get obvious to everyone I think. I put $1,000 on the Celtics to win the ECF on February 3rd at +1800. They are now +300 at my book behind only Milwaukee/Brooklyn at +250.
1988, 2002 and 2010 Lakers championships were all due to incredibly epic screwjobs.
I know it's probably not true but I watched the 4Q of that game and it kind of looked like PHI didn't want to win. PHI was up 5 starting the quarter and Harden had a bad pass where basically threw it to no one, got stripped, and then had an offensive charge on 3 straight possessions. He also missed 2 FTs with 2:30 left in the game and PHI down 1. Also I know TOR's defense is good but Embiid settled for jumpers mostly and only took 1 FT.
MIA-PHI and UT-BRK will be big games tomorrow night.
Raptors are so volatile. Where did they come from? Their emergence and Simmons back changed the entire landscape for that 6-spot/play-in game. I know many older fans dislike the expanders playoffs in all sports but man I can’t even imagine these leagues over the final month of the season under the former playoff structure. Now we have to peak at the 2-way and 3-way tiebreakers for the 6-seed……there are worse ways to play out the regular season.
I have other reasons against the play-in, but the most obvious one this season is what if the Lakers can flip a switch or the Nets fall to 9 and then can get healthy?
The regular season should mean something, and the 16 team structure was about as loose as you could go without creating a scenario where a team could basically just sit out the regular season and still make the playoffs. I see no reason why the Pelicans and Lakers should have any shot at making a real playoff series this year. In the East, it doesn’t really add drama, it just displaces it from the 8/9 gap to the 6/7 gap with the stakes on the latter a lot lower.
Agree on the play-in being a bit silly. Especially when you already have 16 teams making the playoffs.
I assume the goal was keeping the back half of the conference competitive for the entire season but it's just not happening. Teams thats know they stink are not trying any harder, no one really cares much if they are the 10th or the 11th seed.
Mediocre baseball teams that sneak into the playoffs can get hot and have an actual chance at a World Series. Mediocre basketball teams that sneak into the playoffs and get hot still don't really have a shot.
I assume the goal was keeping the back half of the conference competitive for the entire season but it's just not happening. Teams thats know they stink are not trying any harder, no one really cares much if they are the 10th or the 11th seed.
Mediocre baseball teams that sneak into the playoffs can get hot and have an actual chance at a World Series. Mediocre basketball teams that sneak into the playoffs and get hot still don't really have a shot.
At some point, a 9 or 10 seed will probably advance further in the playoffs than one would normally expect. But that seeding is not something a team would normally want to play for. The first 2 games being win-or-go-home greatly increases the variance of the result. Maybe the Nets get healthy and Simmons is a perfect match. But what if they need to win one in Toronto sans Kyrie? Or if Durant gets into foul trouble or tweaks his ankle enough to affect his shooting? Or LaMelo Ball turns into Playoff Rondo for a game?
If the Lakers "flip a switch", IMO it's as much of an indictment on the Lakers' playoff opponents than the system.
The second betting favorite to win the NBA Finals may enter the playoffs through the play-in route.
I think we'll be fine unless we're playing Kobe, which is not possible.
I agree with this, but no one wants to be in the play-in because why would they leave it up to one game, where anything could happen. And if a team is really one of the best in the league but coasts and finishes 9th is that really materially different than coasting all year and finishing 7th or 8th? You're still not trying in the regular season.
That said, the chance of this happening and helping a team like this year's Lakers is definitely greater than the chance of a "true" 9-10 team like this year's Hornets making it past the first round even if they get through the play-in. I don't know what those teams really get except a chance to get trounced.
At the moment they would make the playoffs anyway in the standard 1-8 format.
I honestly have zero interest in the 9th and 10th place teams having a shot at the playoffs. Even if top teams with weird injury/circumstances are in those spots, too bad. Better luck next year.
A team that truly belongs in the 9th or 10th spot based on their talent level isn’t going to make much noise. The 11th and 12th place teams don’t seem particularly desperate to move up.
It would make more sense to me if the NBA historically had a very selective playoff and it was a way to expand from 4-5 per conference to a bigger number. But when more than half the teams already make it, that’s enough.
It isn’t only the 9-10 teams that are affected by this. Under the old format you’d team teams 5-6 content in their spot while 11-12 are already tanking. Everyone from 5 through 12 is now competing longer and mostly right to the final game or two which makes for a much more entertaining and competitive March & April from my seat anyway.
I like the play-in, sure maybe a team that would have missed the playoffs wins 2 games in a row to get in... good for them. It made the season more competitive top to bottom and the trade deadline way more interesting, and entertainment and more teams looking to win is what I want out of sports
Philly sitting Embiid and Harden. Yes, second night of a back-to-back, but lame.
Harden has no lift when he goes to the hoop. His legs are dead.
Embiid has played 41 of the last 42 Philly games.
Philly is playing its sixth game in nine days.
Philly is not a serious playoff threat.
And Ben Who? has a herniated disc.
2.5 within Miami. We’d probably need to win out to win the East but they have damn near ran them down.
Philly beats Miami, despite Embiid and Harden sitting. With the Cs winning again that puts us in a 3 way tie for 2nd and just 2.5 out of first. How amazing would a 1 seed be?
It's kind of remarkable that as recently as January 16th they were in 11th place, but even then they were just 6.5 games out of first place. The east was extremely bunched up for most of the year.
Celtics have the toughest remaining schedule in the league. The only games left against non-playoff/play-in teams are the Pacers and Wizards.
Strength of Remaining Schedule
Strength of Remaining Schedule
We should win the H2H so assuming this, since we’d need to, it’s really only 1.5 back. Not to mention there is a non-zero chance that we sweep the board the way we are playing.
Quick update in the post-road trip euphoria. Format is Team (games back in loss column, conference record, division record if divisional opponent, H2H)
1. Miami (0, 30-14, 2-0 w/ 1 remaining): Circle March 30th, which comes in the middle of a road trip against the conference's playoff teams (Bulls, Raptors). And the Warriors and Nets have visits to Miami coming up.
2. Philadelphia (2 gb, 27-17, 6-9, 2-2). Big win yesterday. But they are about to go out west, come home to face the Bucks, and have a roadie against Toronto. And Boston has clinched the division record tiebreaker.
3. Milwaukee (2 gb, 26-18, 2-1 w/ 1 remaining): Still have visits to Philly, Brooklyn, and Chicago, as well as a home matchup against the Bulls.
4. Boston (3 gb, 30-16, 9-6): Favoring the Celtics are the tiebreakers and the fact that the Celtics do control a big part of their own destiny with games coming up against Toronto, Heat, Bulls, and Bucks. Bad news is that all but Miami are on the road, and the Bulls/Bucks are back-to-back.
5. Chicago (4 gb, 27-17, 1-1 w/ 1 remaining): They did the opposite of the Celtics on their west coast swing (0-3), and are now facing 5 straight on the road. But after tonight's huge matchup against the Bucks, their remaining schedule is relatively soft aside from Miami.
6. Cleveland (6 gb, 24-19, 2-1): Big game up in Toronto on Thursday, and the Cavs have already clinched the H2H matchup at 3-0. That is followed by big game at home against the Bulls, after which they will either be destined for the play-in or fight to remain at 6.
7. Toronto (7 gb, 24-20, 8-5, 2-1 w/ 1 remaining): The team that doesn't go away had a costly loss to the Bulls, so they lose tiebreakers against both the Cavs and Bulls. They really need teams above them to lose to avoid the play-in.
8. Brooklyn (9 gb, 26-18, 9-6, 2-1): I don't see them catching Boston in the standings. But after this week's road trip in Memphis and Miami, their remaining schedule is relatively soft. That game against the Cavs may be critical for them to avoid the play-in.
9. Charlotte (10 gb, 22-22, 3-1). The other team that refuses to go away has made that 3/27 matchup against the Nets appointment viewing, as that game will decide the season series head-to-head.
10. Atlanta (11 gb, 21-23, 2-2): When this list started they were in striking distance of the Celtics. But they are now safely ensconced in the back half of the play-in.
Essentially out: Wizards, Knicks.
Officially eliminated: Pacers, Pistons, Magic.
1. Miami (0, 30-14, 2-0 w/ 1 remaining): Circle March 30th, which comes in the middle of a road trip against the conference's playoff teams (Bulls, Raptors). And the Warriors and Nets have visits to Miami coming up.
2. Philadelphia (2 gb, 27-17, 6-9, 2-2). Big win yesterday. But they are about to go out west, come home to face the Bucks, and have a roadie against Toronto. And Boston has clinched the division record tiebreaker.
3. Milwaukee (2 gb, 26-18, 2-1 w/ 1 remaining): Still have visits to Philly, Brooklyn, and Chicago, as well as a home matchup against the Bulls.
4. Boston (3 gb, 30-16, 9-6): Favoring the Celtics are the tiebreakers and the fact that the Celtics do control a big part of their own destiny with games coming up against Toronto, Heat, Bulls, and Bucks. Bad news is that all but Miami are on the road, and the Bulls/Bucks are back-to-back.
5. Chicago (4 gb, 27-17, 1-1 w/ 1 remaining): They did the opposite of the Celtics on their west coast swing (0-3), and are now facing 5 straight on the road. But after tonight's huge matchup against the Bucks, their remaining schedule is relatively soft aside from Miami.
6. Cleveland (6 gb, 24-19, 2-1): Big game up in Toronto on Thursday, and the Cavs have already clinched the H2H matchup at 3-0. That is followed by big game at home against the Bulls, after which they will either be destined for the play-in or fight to remain at 6.
7. Toronto (7 gb, 24-20, 8-5, 2-1 w/ 1 remaining): The team that doesn't go away had a costly loss to the Bulls, so they lose tiebreakers against both the Cavs and Bulls. They really need teams above them to lose to avoid the play-in.
8. Brooklyn (9 gb, 26-18, 9-6, 2-1): I don't see them catching Boston in the standings. But after this week's road trip in Memphis and Miami, their remaining schedule is relatively soft. That game against the Cavs may be critical for them to avoid the play-in.
9. Charlotte (10 gb, 22-22, 3-1). The other team that refuses to go away has made that 3/27 matchup against the Nets appointment viewing, as that game will decide the season series head-to-head.
10. Atlanta (11 gb, 21-23, 2-2): When this list started they were in striking distance of the Celtics. But they are now safely ensconced in the back half of the play-in.
Essentially out: Wizards, Knicks.
Officially eliminated: Pacers, Pistons, Magic.
John Karalis has an article up in BSJ today with probablitlites of expected finishes for the top 4 teams in the East. After Miami, with an 85% prob of finishing first, the clustering of the next three teams is incredibly tight:
(Team: % 2nd;%3rd; %4th)
(Team: % 2nd;%3rd; %4th)
- PHI: 35; 27; 24
- MIL: 26; 27; 22
- BOS: 23; 28; 24
Morant out against BRK tonight: https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/33573604/guard-ja-morant-ruled-memphis-grizzlies-game-brooklyn-nets-due-sore-knee.
Will be interesting to see whether CHI can keep itself out of the play-in game. They still have to play CLE on Saturday, and then after NYK and WAS, they play LAC, MIA, MIL, BOS, CHA, and MIN. No one would be surprised if they lost all of those games.
Will be interesting to see whether CHI can keep itself out of the play-in game. They still have to play CLE on Saturday, and then after NYK and WAS, they play LAC, MIA, MIL, BOS, CHA, and MIN. No one would be surprised if they lost all of those games.
Maybe I should have said "shocked" instead of "surprised." And just to be clear, I wasn't talking about all nine games, just their last six games against post-season teams (and I was assuming at this point that all of the teams would be trying to win).
CHI is 3-9 over their last 12. They have beaten CLE, DET, and TOR, and they have lost to MEM, MIA, ATL, MIL, PHI, SAC, UT, PHO, and MIL (again). Also, they lost to MIL by 28, PHO, by 27, UT by 15, and SAC by 9. Maybe they are starting to get healthy again but without following them closely, they seem to have some issues.
Yeah, it was mostly a math-related thought - the odds of any non-awful team losing 6 in a row are low. Even if they have only a 30% chance in all 6 games, they still have an 89% chance of winning at least one game, & I think their true odds are higher overall. But agree with not being shocked, just fairly surprised.
They just got PDub back. I thought they were getting Lonzo too when I wrote that post, but it looks like he's had a setback. But the win against the Raptors on Monday was a nice one, even if they got crushed at Milwaukee in the 2nd half of a back-to-back.
CHA had a chance to get within a half game of the Nets in the 8 spot (Nets are trailing) but lost to the Knicks?
Heat are down, a loss brings them to only 1.5 up on MIL/PHI/BOS, and PHI only needs to beat the Lakers without Lebron to pick up another half game
Heat are down, a loss brings them to only 1.5 up on MIL/PHI/BOS, and PHI only needs to beat the Lakers without Lebron to pick up another half game
Still no problem for Memphis, as they win 132-120
Apparently their victory song is “Whoop That Trick”
EDIT: video
View: https://twitter.com/ftb_vids/status/1506814670623363072
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So Celtics are 2 back in the loss column, 1 back of MIL and PHI.
Good news is they own the MIA tiebreaker, almost certainly will own the PHI tiebreaker, and lead MIL in both head to head (1 left though) and conference record.
So Celtics would win a tie with MIA, a tie with PHI, a 3-way tie with MIA and PHI, a 3-way tie with PHI and MIL.
A 3 way tie with MIA and MIL would depend on if PHI is ahead or behind and on remaining MIL games.
Good news is they own the MIA tiebreaker, almost certainly will own the PHI tiebreaker, and lead MIL in both head to head (1 left though) and conference record.
So Celtics would win a tie with MIA, a tie with PHI, a 3-way tie with MIA and PHI, a 3-way tie with PHI and MIL.
A 3 way tie with MIA and MIL would depend on if PHI is ahead or behind and on remaining MIL games.
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Memphis now 15-2 without Morant. Anyone trying to rank him over Tatum deserves a solid smack in the head.
I'm starting to get psyched at the possibility of a Sixers-Nets opening round series.
This could be a problem for the Heat going forward...
View: https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1506806985747939332
View: https://twitter.com/WorldWideWob/status/1506806985747939332
Yeah, that’s got players on both sides keeping star away from coach. Sure stuff happens between competitive people, but you’d like to keep it off screen.
This might be something you kiss and make up with if you were dealing with normal people.
Jimmy Butler is not normal. I sorta don't think this just gets patched up by him, Spo and Haslem.
Cs are now number 1 in CBS’s power rankings! https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-power-rankings-blazing-celtics-edge-suns-for-top-spot-kyrie-irving-nets-moving-up-76ers-into-top-five/amp/