As someone posted in another thread, it would be nice if the teams ahead of the Celtics start losing some games. After that scenario was dismissed as unlikely, I decided to do a deeper dive into the teams surrounding the Celtics in the standings, ranked in order of current conference standings.
1. Miami (+5 game lead in loss column over Boston with 1 game in hand). Given that 17 of the Heat's remaining 26 games are at home, and Miami has the best home record in the East, they are the clear favorite for the #1 seed. Boston is 2-0 against the Heat with one game at TD Garden remaining, but the series matchup seems unlikely to decide this race.
2. Cleveland (+4 with 1 game in hand). As per Tankathon, strength of schedule is roughly equivalent to Boston's, with an advantage that they're done with the west coast. Season series with Boston concluded with the Celtics winning 2-1, so there is a chance they could fall, but would require an untimely slump or injuries or a continued hot stretch by Boston to cover the 4+1 games.
3. Chicago (+4 with 1 game in hand). This is where it gets interesting. They have really benefited from a soft schedule to this point in the season, but that is about to end.Have the 3rd most difficult schedule remaining, with road games in Miami, Atlanta, Philly, Utah, Phoenix, Milwaukee and Cleveland. Circle April 6th as a key standings game when the Celtics visit the Bulls, especially with the season series currently tied at one apiece.
4. Milwaukee (+3). An interesting one in that the Bucks have the 2nd most difficult schedule remaining, with visits to Chicago (2x), Golden State, Utah, Memphis, Philly, Brooklyn, and Cleveland remaining, as well as home games against Phoenix, Dallas, and Denver. With Boston currently holding a 2-1 edge in the season series, that April 7th game in Milwaukee is interesting as well. Still, the Bucks have Giannis, which tilts the court in their favor in just about every game.
5. Philadelphia (+3 with 2 games in hand). 4th hardest schedule remaining, including visits to Miami, Phoenix, and both LA teams, and the Nets at home. I expect Harden to transition relatively easily into the offense. In the playoffs, they are not better than a healthy Brooklyn and it's unclear if they would beat either the Bucks or Miami. But the 2 games in hand will make it a challenge for Boston to catch them. Celtics trail the season series 1-2 with one remaining game in Philly. Ain't happening.
6. Toronto (+2 with 3 games in hand). I'm not at all convinced the Raptors are a better team than this version of the Celtics, which is a contrary viewpoint here. By Tankathon, their schedule is easier than Boston's remaining slate. But they have a B2B against the Nets before between two long road trips, with the 2nd one taking them to Phoenix, Denver, and both LA stadiums, and 2 games against Philly. I would feel more confident in Boston's ability to catch the Raptors if Toronto did not have those 3 games in hand. Celtics lead the season series 2-1 and have a crucial game in Toronto on March 28th, and the season series results could be critical here.
7. Boston. Remaining schedule is middle of the pack (0.496 winning percentage). A difficult west coast trip to Golden State and Denver remain, along with visits to Philly and Brooklyn. The Toronto game starts what could be a crucial standings battle, but Boston does close the season with 3 road games. I'm not as confident they will miss the play-in, but I am confident they will almost assuredly be home for said play-in, and will be a tough playoff out for any team that does not rhyme with Jets.
8. Brooklyn (-1 with 2 games in hand). The only saving grace here is that the Nets probably do not care that much about the standings, and they will have only 2 of their 3 stars for 15 of their remaining 28 games. Schedule is only slightly harder than Boston's; visits to Milwaukee, Miami, and Philly along with a home-and-home against the Raptors are their toughest games. Boston and Brooklyn have split 2 games and have 2 remaining. Doesn't matter much, as I'm certain Kyrie will be allowed to play home games by the time April rolls around. Still, it would be nice if the Celtics weren't playing for the right to face the Heat in the opening round.
9. Charlotte (-3). They're done with the west coast, and their schedule is home biased (15 of 25) the rest of the way. Celtics, with a 2-1 series lead, do need to take care of business in Charlotte on March 9th, and, if so, the Hornets really have only an outside shot of getting their play-in game at home.
10. Atlanta (-4 with 2 games in hand). The 2 games in hand matters, as does the fact the Hawks have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. Celtics could use wins in at least one of those 2 home games against the Hawks, as Boston is so far 0-2 in the season series. So a wintoday Sunday would be most helpful; unfortunately, it's the 2nd half of a tough B2B.
11. Washington (-4 with 3 games in hand). By far the easiest schedule remaining (0.456 opponents winning percentage), but they do have a west coast trip remaining that includes the Warriors. That, their 3 games in hand, and their 2-1 edge in the season series against Boston with 1 remaining, are the only reasons they are on this list. With Beal likely done, they probably cannot catch either Atlanta or Charlotte.
12. New York Knicks (-6 with 1 game in hand). With a somewhat difficult schedule (0.515), their only chance for getting into the playin is if the Hornets or Hawks collapse, but they will not catch Boston. Season series with Boston completed at 2 wins apiece.
Tl;dr version is that Toronto remains Boston's best hope for avoiding the play-in, and Brooklyn's likely priority on preserving KD's and Kyrie's health.
EDIT: Thanks @lovegtm
1. Miami (+5 game lead in loss column over Boston with 1 game in hand). Given that 17 of the Heat's remaining 26 games are at home, and Miami has the best home record in the East, they are the clear favorite for the #1 seed. Boston is 2-0 against the Heat with one game at TD Garden remaining, but the series matchup seems unlikely to decide this race.
2. Cleveland (+4 with 1 game in hand). As per Tankathon, strength of schedule is roughly equivalent to Boston's, with an advantage that they're done with the west coast. Season series with Boston concluded with the Celtics winning 2-1, so there is a chance they could fall, but would require an untimely slump or injuries or a continued hot stretch by Boston to cover the 4+1 games.
3. Chicago (+4 with 1 game in hand). This is where it gets interesting. They have really benefited from a soft schedule to this point in the season, but that is about to end.Have the 3rd most difficult schedule remaining, with road games in Miami, Atlanta, Philly, Utah, Phoenix, Milwaukee and Cleveland. Circle April 6th as a key standings game when the Celtics visit the Bulls, especially with the season series currently tied at one apiece.
4. Milwaukee (+3). An interesting one in that the Bucks have the 2nd most difficult schedule remaining, with visits to Chicago (2x), Golden State, Utah, Memphis, Philly, Brooklyn, and Cleveland remaining, as well as home games against Phoenix, Dallas, and Denver. With Boston currently holding a 2-1 edge in the season series, that April 7th game in Milwaukee is interesting as well. Still, the Bucks have Giannis, which tilts the court in their favor in just about every game.
5. Philadelphia (+3 with 2 games in hand). 4th hardest schedule remaining, including visits to Miami, Phoenix, and both LA teams, and the Nets at home. I expect Harden to transition relatively easily into the offense. In the playoffs, they are not better than a healthy Brooklyn and it's unclear if they would beat either the Bucks or Miami. But the 2 games in hand will make it a challenge for Boston to catch them. Celtics trail the season series 1-2 with one remaining game in Philly. Ain't happening.
6. Toronto (+2 with 3 games in hand). I'm not at all convinced the Raptors are a better team than this version of the Celtics, which is a contrary viewpoint here. By Tankathon, their schedule is easier than Boston's remaining slate. But they have a B2B against the Nets before between two long road trips, with the 2nd one taking them to Phoenix, Denver, and both LA stadiums, and 2 games against Philly. I would feel more confident in Boston's ability to catch the Raptors if Toronto did not have those 3 games in hand. Celtics lead the season series 2-1 and have a crucial game in Toronto on March 28th, and the season series results could be critical here.
7. Boston. Remaining schedule is middle of the pack (0.496 winning percentage). A difficult west coast trip to Golden State and Denver remain, along with visits to Philly and Brooklyn. The Toronto game starts what could be a crucial standings battle, but Boston does close the season with 3 road games. I'm not as confident they will miss the play-in, but I am confident they will almost assuredly be home for said play-in, and will be a tough playoff out for any team that does not rhyme with Jets.
8. Brooklyn (-1 with 2 games in hand). The only saving grace here is that the Nets probably do not care that much about the standings, and they will have only 2 of their 3 stars for 15 of their remaining 28 games. Schedule is only slightly harder than Boston's; visits to Milwaukee, Miami, and Philly along with a home-and-home against the Raptors are their toughest games. Boston and Brooklyn have split 2 games and have 2 remaining. Doesn't matter much, as I'm certain Kyrie will be allowed to play home games by the time April rolls around. Still, it would be nice if the Celtics weren't playing for the right to face the Heat in the opening round.
9. Charlotte (-3). They're done with the west coast, and their schedule is home biased (15 of 25) the rest of the way. Celtics, with a 2-1 series lead, do need to take care of business in Charlotte on March 9th, and, if so, the Hornets really have only an outside shot of getting their play-in game at home.
10. Atlanta (-4 with 2 games in hand). The 2 games in hand matters, as does the fact the Hawks have a relatively easy schedule the rest of the way. Celtics could use wins in at least one of those 2 home games against the Hawks, as Boston is so far 0-2 in the season series. So a win
11. Washington (-4 with 3 games in hand). By far the easiest schedule remaining (0.456 opponents winning percentage), but they do have a west coast trip remaining that includes the Warriors. That, their 3 games in hand, and their 2-1 edge in the season series against Boston with 1 remaining, are the only reasons they are on this list. With Beal likely done, they probably cannot catch either Atlanta or Charlotte.
12. New York Knicks (-6 with 1 game in hand). With a somewhat difficult schedule (0.515), their only chance for getting into the playin is if the Hornets or Hawks collapse, but they will not catch Boston. Season series with Boston completed at 2 wins apiece.
Tl;dr version is that Toronto remains Boston's best hope for avoiding the play-in, and Brooklyn's likely priority on preserving KD's and Kyrie's health.
EDIT: Thanks @lovegtm
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