NBA Ratings Slump; Does the NBA have a problem?

lovegtm

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Apr 30, 2013
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Yeah, I'm just going based purely of feel. To me it also seems like the game is more about drawing fouls now than being fouled while legitimately trying to score, and that slows down the pace and also seems a bit like gaming the system to me. Again, that's purely one uninformed man's opinion.

The other issue - if you're a star-based league and you don't have likeable stars, it can be really annoying for the viewer. I still sports-hate LeBron, but I used to generally dislike him and if every broadcast features references and ads with him or Kobe (who I hate hate) or other players you're not really into, it gets kind of exhausting.

Like, the NFL is much more enjoyable now that I don't have to see Peyton Manning's face like 10 times every Sunday even when I'm not watching his games or hear announcers waxing over his greatness.

Overexposure is fine if you have a Shaq or Magic or Jordan, but I don't know if the sport has anyone with that combination of skill and magnetism who isn't also on a team I strongly dislike (I know that's arbitrary).
This is all good info: it's completely different from how I see the game, but you're probably more representative.

The drawing fouls thing: the percentage of scoring coming from fouls is actually down a bit from 15-20 years ago. This is mostly a Harden problem and nothing new. Watching Jordan live at the FT line sucked when I was a teen too.

I think the marketable personality thing is an issue: Steph is/was that (not coincidentally, great ratings for those teams, even if I disliked it). Giannis should be that, but the market probably hurts. Zion 110% is exactly that in all ways and is perfect, which is why the league planned to market the shit out of him. Unfortunately, whether his body can hold up enough to let him be marketed is an open question.
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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This is all good info: it's completely different from how I see the game, but you're probably more representative.

The drawing fouls thing: the percentage of scoring coming from fouls is actually down a bit from 15-20 years ago. This is mostly a Harden problem and nothing new. Watching Jordan live at the FT line sucked when I was a teen too.

I think the marketable personality thing is an issue: Steph is/was that (not coincidentally, great ratings for those teams, even if I disliked it). Giannis should be that, but the market probably hurts. Zion 110% is exactly that in all ways and is perfect, which is why the league planned to market the shit out of him. Unfortunately, whether his body can hold up enough to let him be marketed is an open question.
Ha. I figured the numbers would probably show the exact opposite of what I perceived.

For me, there's two classes of drawing fouls. The Harden leg thing started after I more or less stopped watching. I think it's goofy, but what I really disliked was the "put your head down and travel to the rim to take an improbable shot" foul drawing that seemed to define some of LeBron's game.

Of course, a related issue - and one that plagues every sport - is that the reffing seems arbitrary. That also relates back to the likeability of the stars. If you love Harden or LeBron, you think every time they're touched it's a foul and the calls seem perfectly legit. If you don't, or don't like their games, then it seems like they're getting star treatment in a way that ruins the flow of the game.

Again, it's a problem in all sports, and every time the Patriots lose, I/we look back on a couple calls or missed calls that could've changed the game. However, when I was watching the Celtics-Cavs series a few years ago or the Celts-LeBron Heat series forever ago, the favoritism just seemed more flagrant and decisive.

Like, NFL refs can call holding on every play, but they don't. NBA refs seem to have no compunction about making the same call again and again.
 

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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As a super casual fan, I like the new 3-point heavy style. It seems to my untrained eye like the ball moves more, the court is more spread, and there are fewer plays they’re just dudes traveling, getting hacked, and going to the line.

That was what turned me off basketball earlier.
I will say that the NBA of the mid-to-late 1990's was unwatchable. Every play was a clear out isolation 1-on-1 designed to get a foul called, and great defense was basically grabbing players so that the final scores would be in the 70's or 80's. The Spurs were one of the few teams that didn't play that style.

The rule changes on hand checking and the realization that the 3 is an efficient scoring method have changed the game for the better. Teams that don't move the ball (aka, the 2018-19 Celtics) don't go very far.

NFL has managed to stop its ratings decline. MLB, OTOH, is still seeing its TV ratings plummet. As a watchable product, the NBA is closer to the NFL than MLB right now. But it still can be hard to attract viewers to watch "neutral" games during the regular season. Which is why I like the idea of shortening the regular season and adding the mid-season tournament.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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They have reduced the number of time outs teams get so in theory, the length of the end of games should have gone down a bit in the past couple of years. Average total game time is under 2:15, which is pretty quick.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Jan 15, 2004
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Everyone, myself included, likes to list lots of factors and gripes.

However, if you were God of the NBA, and you could make one, but only one, substantive change to increase ratings sustainably, what would it be?
Flex scheduling to eliminate teams like the Pelicans and Warriors when star players go down with injuries. I brought this up over the summer about how the Golden State injuries were going to do this to the ratings and some countered that they WOULD be removed from the national schedule of games but I don’t believe this has happened more than once.
 

Jimbodandy

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Jan 31, 2006
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around the way
Flex scheduling to eliminate teams like the Pelicans and Warriors when star players go down with injuries. I brought this up over the summer about how the Golden State injuries were going to do this to the ratings and some countered that they WOULD be removed from the national schedule of games but I don’t believe this has happened more than once.
This is a great idea. I don't have a NBA package, but my 16yo and I will watch any ESPN or TNT game that's on. If it's a good one. Curry/Klay-less Warriors vs. Zion-less Pelicans on a Tuesday, and I'll give it a quarter.

Best way to market the cool young guys and hype teams is to respond to what the data tells you. Locking those games in months in advance is a goofy thing to do.
 

luckiestman

Son of the Harpy
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Jul 15, 2005
32,620
I think this year there was a lot of star roster turnover that killed a lot of narratives.

People like stories. What is a good rivalry in the NBA right now? Any given night the best players are sitting out.

There is more compelling drama in the off season than during the regular season.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
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Nov 2, 2007
20,112
Santa Monica
Has anyone brought up (1) small/active gamblers & (2) fantasy league players?

Both seem very prevalent in the NFL. I do neither, but if the NBA could expand/market both it would help with ratings. Fantasy players/gamblers are diehards and will watch any game/team if they have action/players involved from start to finish.
 

ManicCompression

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May 14, 2015
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It's a strange topic because, to me, the NBA is in a really, really, really good place right now.
- The league is wide open. With the Warriors broken up, I can see routes for 6 to 8 teams to win the championship.
- There are fascinating stars EVERYWHERE. The league is loaded with guys who are incredibly unique and enjoyable to watch. LeBron, Zion, Giannis, Luka, Donovan Mitchell, Jokic, Simmons, Embiid, Morant, Siakam, and Steph/KD when they come back. Not to mention Trae Young who, though ineffective, is at least entertaining. Then there are teams like the Heat and Celtics who don't have that A List star, but they're fun as f@ck to watch most nights.
- From a highlight perspective, the kind of stuff the average fan wants to see, we're getting more dunks, alley-oops, three-pointers and incredible passes than ever before because of spacing. Maybe there's too much of a good thing, like the way that too much chocolate in a dessert is unappetizing, but I love seeing the pick and roll being run with so much open court.
- No game is out of reach. It used to be that scrubs would be in if your team was down 25 heading into the fourth. Now, it's an attainable goal to cut into that lead and possibly win the game. I know people say it's boring because it just turns into a three point shooting contest, but I'd rather the possibility of a comeback than garbage time for 12 minutes.

I don't really buy the argument that people are tuning out because of the game itself. The sport for some fans (myself included) is better than ever. I think it's events outside the game that are bringing down the ratings.

- Increased cord cutting - I'd be really interested to know if League Pass subscribers are up as ESPN numbers go down. I would say a majority of my basketball watching friends got rid of cable and only have League Pass. The league is cutting into its own ratings here. If there's a really interesting national game, but it's going up against the Celtics, I'm probably going to watch the Celtics. Now multiply that by a fraction of fans across 30 teams.
- Some big markets stink - the largest market in the US, NYC, has one awful team and one not good team. Even worse, both of those teams are boring. If you're an average fan living in NYC, what is driving your interest in the NBA this year? You're waiting for 2021 to come.
- The CBA - almost every player views their situation as temporary. The free agency soap opera gets NBA nerds like us really wrapped up in it, but for the man or woman who finds things like contracts and salary cap details boring, it's not all that entertaining. I'm as much of a pro-union/player empowerment guy as anyone, yet I can't help but think players holding teams hostage (like AD, LeBron, Durant, Kawhi, perhaps Giannis next year, etc.) is really taking away from the sport. What's endearing fans to star players who view their relationship with fanbases as fungible? Celtics fans are lucky to have a somewhat stable situation, but if I'm living in NOLA, I'm already nervous that Zion is going to ask for a trade in 4-5 years. I think that matters and I think there's less of a connection with guys like Kyrie and KD and even LeBron on some level because they've bounced around so much.

And that's not all on the players, a lot of it is due to shitty ownership and a greedy CBA negotiation by the owners, but the cause is less important than the effect on the league.
 

h8mfy

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Jul 15, 2005
336
Orange County, CA
Are the ratings numbers for domestic ratings only, or international too? The linked article didn’t specify that I saw. I wonder if the Hong Kong kerfuffle has any impact, either in China, or even in the US by anyone who didn’t like how that went down. For me, personally, this was the first time in a few years that I didn’t get League Pass, in part because that was ongoing while I was trying to decide whether or not to renew.
HBDS - I'm with NextVR and we offer our VR games under the League Pass umbrella (we have APIs with the NBA's authentication systems, which are run by Turner for domestic, and NeuLion for International). This year, we had to include Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau under the embargoed countries as part of China, when last season, it was only China that was restricted. We've got a few complaints from past HK-based customers who had access previously, but there is no real way to measure the impact of that issue.

Just as FYI, these are the countries where NBA League Pass is not available this season:

Central African Republic
Congo, Democratic Republic Of
Cote D'Ivoire
Cuba
Iran
Iraq
Liberia
Libya
North Korea
Somalia
Sudan
Syria
Zimbabwe

Overall, VR streaming numbers aren't really useful for this discussion given the overall growth in devices YoY, but we are about the same as last year, both domestically and internationally. But because of logistics and scheduling around the national broadcast games, we have to set our 27-game schedule before the season starts. We try to include every team once, and definitely saw the impact of what some others have cited - pre-scheduled coverage of the Pelicans and GSW has likely impacted viewership when those games became less attractive after injuries.
 

Average Game James

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Apr 28, 2016
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Didn’t see it noted anywhere else in the thread, but the rating for Zion’s debut (up 88% vs. prior year game) certainly add support to the idea that injuries/lack of star power in national games has been a drag.

Speaking as a now former league pass subscriber, the main issue for me is that most of the more appealing non-Celtics games for me have been in the late time slot. I’d love to watch more, but I’m up at 5am every day, so staying up late to watch just isn’t in the cards.